AUD to CAD – Canadian Dollars to Australian Dollars
When converting Australian Dollars to Canadian Dollars (AUD to CAD), or CAD to AUD, by exchanging via Direct FX, you will save a significant amount of money. Our wholesale currency exchange rates for money transfers are significantly more competitive than bank foreign exchange rates. Being Australasian based, we specialise in knowing what drives AUD/CAD currency conversion rates.
AUD to CAD Overview: Both the Australian and Canadian dollars are regarded are commodity currencies. AUD CAD is a relatively stable currency pair. The CAD fortunes are more closely aligned with those of the US, as it is their largest trading partner and neighbour. The AUD fortunes are aligned with those of Australia and Asian emerging markets. A break down in correlation can happen in periods of dislocated global growth as we have seen following the 2008 global financial crisis. The AUD closer ties to the Asian economies has seen it consolidate at historically elevated levels again the CAD.
|Historical Ranges:||1 year||5 years||10 years|
|AUD/CAD||.8835 – 0.9770||.8835 – 1.0391||.8575 – 1.0779|
Current Official Cash Rates:
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): 0.75% Bank of Canada (BoC): 1.75%
The Australian Dollar (NZD) narrowly avoided posting a fresh yearly low bouncing off 0.8568 to climb back to 0.8950 midweek against the Canadian Dollar (CAD). With a lack of economic releases this week in the cross focus was on Lowe speaking yesterday. The governor said he was happy with the Chinese stimulus plan which would assist the Australian economy going this year amid uncertainty with coronavirus. Crude oil prices continues to hampen the CAD with price falling 0.6% overnight to 51.35 per barrel but renewed interest in the Loonie after BoC’s Poloz saying the economy is in pretty good shape could see the currency dip back towards 0.8870
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.8911
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.8869- 0.8953
The Australian Dollar (AUD) sank to 0.8850 at the weekly close against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) as risk mood continued to falter on coronavirus fears. A return to risk on a 174B USD Chinese liquidity injection to prop up a weakening economy pushed the Aussie a touch higher through Tuesday to 0.8895. Today’s RBA holds centre of attention with most expecting the RBA to leave rates unchanged at 0.75%. A fall in unemployment late 2019 seems to be enough to be enough to drive stimulus with other data coming in generally better than expected should impact the decision. We don’t imagine much momentum to the topside over the week as coronavirus worsens.
Current Level: 0.8890
Last Weeks Range: 0.8840-0.8921
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been further sold this week the fifth straight week of declines to 0.8870 against the Canadian Dollar (CAD confirming the Aussie has not had a winning week in 2020 yet. Risk factors have played a big part this week overshadowing positive fourth quarter Australian CPI. Attention is now on tomorrow’s Canadian GDP for November, with the first monthly decline in October since February 2019, the Canadian economy could be nearing a formal recession if we don’t see a 0.1% number supporting growth. The RBA cash rate Tuesday is next week’s focus with analysts spit on a cut or not from the current 0.75%. 0.8835 marks the long term support going back many, many years, surely at some stage we will see a AUD reversal.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.8868
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.8857- 0.8966
It’s been all one way traffic in the Canadian Dollar (CAD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross over the past few days as risk markets deteriorate the pair has fallen to 0.8900 into Tuesday. The Canadian Central Bank maintained the 1.75% rate with the Canadian economy resilient of late but recent activity suggests growth in the medium term could be soft. Market fears regarding the out of control coronavirus flowed into markets late last week taking the Aussie lower. Tomorrow’s Australian Quarterly CPI may give the Aussie some relief with Canadian GDP to print later in the week. Support is seen at the 0.8900 level
Current Level: 0.8905
Last Weeks Range: 0.8900-0.9049
A dovish rate hold by the bank of Canada sent the Canadian Dollar (CAD) reeling back against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to the 0.0.9050 level Thursday. The central bank maintained the 1.75% rate and the Canadian economy has been resilient but recent activity suggests growth in the medium term could be soft. Positive Australian Jobs data wasn’t enough to rally the Aussie after surprising to the upside with the official Unemployment Rate edging down to 5.1% from 5.2% and the participation number for December rose 28,900 based on consensus of 12,000- the cross falling back to 0.8980 midday Friday linked also to a risk off market tone with fears of further coronavirus spreading.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.8988
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.8931- 0.9047
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended last week’s losses into Tuesday in thin market conditions against the Canadian Dollar trading down to 0.8955. The Canadian Dollar has been well bid over the past couple of weeks and continues to dominate a soft Aussie. With a fully booked week of economic data to come including Canadian CPI m/m, The Bank of Canada cash rate and policy announcement and later Aussie employment figures we predict price at week’s end circa 0.8900. A Sharp pullback in the oil price over the last session offset the price back to 0.8970.
Current Level: 0.8966
Last Weeks Range: 0.8954-0.9038
2019 price points… open 0.9530, close 0.9125, high 0.9615, low 0.8835.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD), Australian Dollar (AUD) hasn’t shifted far from last week’s close, with this week’s lack of economic data to drive momentum we don’t think we will see any major price shifts. With a negative yield curve in the Canadian economy and the Bank of Canada expected to drop the interest rate to accommodate we think price around these levels of 0.9000 won’t last. Expect a rebound in AUD over the next while to retest 0.9150
Current Level: 0.9007
Last Weeks Range: 0.8904-0.9032
Stats from last year’s trading in the Australian Dollar (AUD), Canadian Dollar (CAD) pair which may be of interest…2019 open 0.9530, close 0.9125, high 0.9615, low 0.8835. These numbers outline the deterioration of the Aussie last year, some would say unfounded based on the Canadian economy offering a negative yield curve- the only country in this situation. 2020 may be the year of the AUD I suspect. Canadian Trade Balance released poor at -1.1B based on expectations of -0.8B in November based largely on a rail strike which disrupted transportation of goods. Price rose back to 0.8960 after the release. Looking forward we have Canadian employment data Friday.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.8959
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.8903- 0.9028
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues its slide from last week’s high of 0.9130 to 0.9000 against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) into Friday trading. Despite Canadian manufacturing releasing down on expectations for October at -0.7% the Aussie has been well sold. Solid support around 0.8980 should see the pair push higher, Thursday’s Aussie employment data will be key.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.9009
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.9002- 0.9070
The AUD has continued to strengthen against the CAD hitting a 3 month high of 0.9136 in the last 12 hours…now back around 0.9125 but if the Aussie can hold over the 0.9100 level on this cross, with unemployment data next week has potential to breakthrough immediate resistance at 0.9140 and on towards the 0.9170 level.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.9102
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.9003- 0.9136
It’s been a game of two halves for the Australian Dollar (AUD), Canadian Dollar (CAD) cross this week with both central banks announcing cash rates. Price rallied to 0.9120 early in the week on renewed trade war optimism and positive Chinese Data pre RBA announcement. The RBA left rates unchanged at 0.75% saying the global economy remains stable, while risks are still slanted to the downside, the RBA continue to watch intl trade flows and how Trump’s trade negotiations with China are affecting investment and business. The Bank of Canada also left their cash rate unchanged at 1.75% in a perhaps hawkish statement saying growth is expected to tick higher over the next few years. CAD rallied back to 0.9040 after the news and received a bonus when Aussie Retail Sales printed poor pushing price to 0.8980 before reversing back to 0.9000 into Friday.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.9001
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.8977- 0.9117
Markets turned upbeat off Monday’s open sending risk currencies higher, the Australian Dollar (AUD) throwing aside the last two weeks of choppiness to rally to 0.9070 from the open price of 0.8980. Optimism over a phase one trade deal and positive Chinese Manufacturing data helped to push AUD higher. It’s rare that we see such a massive data calendar this week for the pair with a massive amount of key releases to print. Key will be today’s RBA cash rate and Thursday’s Bank of Canada cash rate. Also, Australian Current Account and Canadian employment. If you were considering getting ahead of the week’s volatility now would be a good time to take advantage of the rate around 0.9060.
Current Level: 0.9073
Last Weeks Range: 0.8963-0.9078
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has again underperformed against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) to 0.8980 Friday morning. Crude Oil prices have remained stable at around 58.00 per barrel which have been Loonie (CAD) supportive along with better than expected manufacturing data. Canadian Current Account published at -9.9B compared to estimates of -9.5B for the third quarter widening the deficit further but only momentarily stunting CAD momentum to the downside early this morning with price approaching five week support at 0.8960.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.8985
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.8979- 0.9042
The Australian Dollar (AUD) reached 0.9070 late in the week against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) before giving back gains. Canadian Retail Sales saw demand back in the Loonie after figures showed an improvement in the month of September up 0.5% following an increase of 1.1% in the second quarter. Crude still holds around 58.00 per barrel and could be enough to extend price to the downside. The pair has a fully booked week of economic data to come with tomorrow’s Construction work done and Canadian monthly GDP the main risk events.
Current Level: 0.9014
Last Weeks Range: 0.8967-0.9069
The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovered off 0.8970 early in the week against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) to trade back to 0.9060 where it stayed most of the week. Friday overnight NY session saw strength in the CAD develop as Crude Oil improved over 2% with price dipping to 0.9010. Poloz was on the wires early Friday and confirmed he recent stance to policy by saying “I think we have monetary conditions about right”. Next week’s Canadian Current Account and GDP will be the focus
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.9010
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.8966- 0.9068
The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovered off 0.8975 Friday with improved risk conditions against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) to end the week at 0.9020. Monday’s lack of any data releases sees the cross trade around the 0.9000 area as it awaits tomorrow’s Australian Construction works completed q/q report followed by Thursday’s Capital Expenditure. Friday’s Canadian Current Account and monthly GDP will also be watched closely with expectations of growth to show a slight improvement of 0.1% for September. This week we foresee a retest of 0.8900
Current Level: 0.8986
Last Weeks Range: 0.8975-0.9076
Recent sideways activity in the Australian Dollar (AUD), Canadian Dollar (CAD) pair ended Wednesday after poor releases in Australian jobs data. Price has moved from 0.9060 levels down to 0.8980 with Aussie unemployment posting a rise to 5.3% from 5.2% while fulltime and part time employment contracted -19,000. These numbers will be a concern for the RBA who expect unemployment to be lower around 5.2% falling to 5.0% in 2021. This has certainly raised questions on whether the RBA will cut rates on December 3rd. With a more dovish Bank of Canada (BoC) recently it’s hard to know which way momentum is headed towards the end of 2019.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.8989
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.8974- 0.9075
Choppy conditions continue in the Australian Dollar (AUD), Canadian Dollar (CAD) pair after both currencies have run into headwinds recently. Price hasn’t travelled to far from the weekly open, currently 0.9060. Canadian Job’s numbers printed poor with less numbers than predicted entering the workforce in October, with the Aussie spooked by recent developments during weekend trade tariff negotiations. It’s a quiet week of data for the Loonie with the main focus on Australian Jobs data. Expectations are high for decent numbers and a push towards 0.9100 levels to the top of the recent 10 day range band.
Current Level: 0.9066
Last Weeks Range: 0.9045-0.9109
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has retained last week’s surge higher against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) extending the recent run to 0.9105 early Friday. Trade Balances in both Canada and Australian have been the difference with Canadian figures printing below estimates while Australian figures showed a massive improvement of 7.18B over 5.1B expected rallying the Aussie. The RBA also kept their cash rate at 0.75% saying hinting that further easing for now is unlikely. Next week’s Australian jobs data is the focus.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.9073
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.9045- 0.9109
The Australian Dollar (AUD) reversed the previous week’s losses against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) from the low of 0.8905 on the weekly open climbing higher into Thursday to 0.8980. The Bank of Canada (BoC) kept their cash rate on hold at 1.75% but the statement which followed was more dovish than markets were expecting. This opened up a wave of CAD selling with price extending to 0.9115 before falling back to 0.9070 midday Friday. Next week’s slew of data releases should keep the cross busy with the RBA cash rate announcement and Canadian employment on the docket. Price should remain relatively unchanged around 0.9070 through to Monday’s Australian Retail Sales.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.9067
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.8903- 0.9118
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continued its bearish decline off 0.9020 against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) in a week of Canadian Elections. Justin Trudeau was triumphant in the federal elections as his Liberal Party won the majority of votes- 157 seats in the country’s total 338 seat House of Commons. He will now need to govern with smaller parties but the overall take is this result was an unexpectedly stronger than expected results for the Liberals. In the wash up, the Loonie strengthened over the news across the board. Canadian Retail Sales published poor down -0.1% based on the 0.4% markets were predicting but the data was mostly overshadowed by the election results. Long term support in the pair sits at the 0.8860 area, if next week’s Australian quarterly CPI is poor, we could see this retested.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.8909
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.8902- 0.9019
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended last week’s rally against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) to 0.9020 early Tuesday before dropping back at 0.8980. Canadian Federal Elections are in full flight with results expected in a few hours. Currently both Conservative and Liberal governments won’t be able to form the majority of the 170 seats required from the 338 in total with both needing to team up to pass legislation. Trudaeu’s right wing party are battling to stay in power with the Conservative gaining ground over the past few days. On the data front Canadian Retail Sales is the main focus Wednesday. We are expecting a Trudeau victory which should be good for the Loonie and send price back towards last week’s low of 0.8880
Current Level: 0.8986
Last Weeks Range:0.8880-0.9021
Late last week’s bearish momentum in the Canadian Dollar (CAD), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair continued into Thursday with the cross dipping to 0.8880. Canadian monthly CPI was slightly worse than expected printing at -0.4%, helped along with Australian employment data price was back towards 0.8990 Friday. The Australian unemployment rate has fallen to 5.2% from 5.3% the first drop since February when it peaked at 4.9%. This represents good news for the RBA who have cut rates three times this year to try and revive growth and employment.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.8967
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.8879- 0.9000
Fantastic Canadian Employment figures took the Australian Dollar (AUD) off its Friday high of 0.9035 down to 0.8920 into Monday as buyers sought the CAD in thin US and Canadian holiday markets. Price didn’t last long down here reversing back to 0.8970 midday Tuesday. Volatility in the pair should continue over the week with Canadian CPI m/m and Australian employment numbers printing at the end of the week. Watch for the RBA minutes today, we are not expecting anything new, but you never know. Bearish momentum towards the prior daily close of 0.8860 is predicted over the coming days.
Current Level: 0.8949
Last Weeks Range: 0.8921-0.9036
The Australian Dollar (AUD), Canadian Dollar (CAD) has not moved far from the weekly open of 0.9000 based on a lack of economic data. With 0.8950 the low and trading currently up around 0.8990. Looking forward we have Canadian employment tomorrow morning which is expected to print at 5.7% unemployment and 11,200 additional heads added to the Canadian economy. August figures increased by 81,000 so expectations of similar positive data are high. While the AUD enjoys some recent support off the low of 88.30 buyers of CAD should consider these levels with the AUD still underperforming.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.8986
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.8950- 0.9005
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been the beneficiary of poor Canadian data this week coming off the mid-week low of 0.8835 to climb just shy of 0.9000 into Friday. Officially the Canadian economy has stalled in July raising concerns around the slowdown in Oil and gas being the main contributor. With GDP at 0.2% in June this drop is the largest since 2016 and sparks worries around the second half of the year potential downturn. Crude Oil holds around the 52.00 area but has fallen sharply off Monday’s open putting added pressure on the Loonie. Earlier in the week The RBA cut their overnight cash rate from 1.0% to 0.75% in efforts to boost economic growth with Lowe saying he needed full employment and targeted inflation. The Aussie remains fundamentally bearish with lingering global trade tensions, those buying CAD should grab it while 0.9000 represents an improvement in recent levels.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.8997
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.8835- 0.9005
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continued to ease lower to 0.8930 against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) in a week lacking economic data. Crude Oil consolidation continues to hanpen the CAD generally but overnight price dropped to 54.20 a shift of over 3% as sanction in Iran heat up. A daily close through massive support at 0.8920 could spell further downward bias for the Aussie. Today’s RBA announcement at 5.30 NZT should reflect a cut of 25 points taking the cash rate to 0.75% pressuring the Aussie.
Current Level: 0.8939
Last Weeks Range: 0.8923-0.9019
No data out in Canada this week has meant the Canadian Dollar (CAD) has followed leads from the Australian Dollar (AUD) with price moving lower in the pair through 0.9000 to 0.8950 levels. Crude Oil consolidated around 56.50 offering to impact to the cross. RBA’s Lowe was on the wires saying his economy is at a “gentle turning point” and at the board meeting next week on Tuesday “we will again take stock of the evidence”. Long term massive support in the cross stands just below 0.8900, if the AUD drifts below this level we could see larger declines.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.8960
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.8943- 0.9015
Early in the week the Australian Dollar (AUD), Canadian Dollar (CAD) pair recovered to 0.9125 after dipping to 0.9075 based on the oil price spike, but Tuesday the Aussie was soon under pressure. Canadian CPI m/m printed at -0.1% less than the -0.2% markets were expecting. Year on year CPI came in at 1.9% to August down from the 2.0% in July. Australian Jobs data fall short of market expectations when the unemployment rate rose to 5.3% from 5.2% although employment numbers increased by 22,000 from 15,000. Trading Friday price is holding up around the 0.9000 level but we see a retest of the low at 0.8910 on the horizon.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.9001
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.8990- 0.9125
With the Crude Oil price jumping over 20% to 62.50 per barrel after a Saudi Arabia oil field was bombed over the weekend price in the Australian Dollar (AUD), Canadian Dollar (CAD) fell to 0.9070 from 0.9140 on Monday’s open. It has since recovered slightly to 0.9100 as we await further news as to how oil reserves will impact price over the next few days with overall market supply. The RBA publish their policy minutes from the last meeting on 3 Sep today along with House Price Index results for the second quarter ending June with expectations of a drop of 1% in the house price medium. Attention will then turn to Canadian CPI m/m and later in the week Aussie employment data with unemployment expected to remain at 5.2%. Although the last two weeks have been profitable for the AUD trading off the low off 0.8915 we still think downside risks remain.
Last Weeks Range: 0.9065-0.9143
A quiet week of any meaningful economic data in the Canadian Dollar (CAD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross has seen the Aussie extend last week’s gains to 0.9080 in general risk on conditions. NAB Business confidence showed a slight deterioration in August with Westpac consumer sentiment also printing down on expectations with pressures continuing on family finances and concerns around near term economic outlook. Price at 0.9070 sits at a six-week high with strong resistance on the chart at 0.9100. Next week’s calendar should give us more volatility with Australian employment figures and Canadian CPI m/m publishing.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.9074
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.9004- 0.9089
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has pushed higher Monday continuing last week’s form off the low of 0.8925 back over 0.9000 psychological level to 0.9045 Tuesday. A healthy risk appetite continues with US equities extending their run off the back of last week’s with China agreeing to sit back at the table with US officials to nut out trade negotiations. Canadian employment boosted the CAD momentarily Friday after figures showed 81,000 people were added to the workforce and the unemployment rate remained stable at 5.7%. With a lack of any real data publishing this week price may drift around current levels, perhaps track a touch higher is risk allows.
Last Weeks Range: 0.8924-0.9056
The Australian Dollar (AUD) pushed higher to 0.9050 midweek as buoyant economic data surprised taking price to a two week high against the Canadian Dollar (CAD). The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged Thursday at 1.75 the seventh time in a row and surprisingly indicated no further cuts were on the radar. The Loonie recaptured earlier losses trading back under 0.9000 a pivotal level to 0.8985. Aussie Trade Balance followed printing higher than predicted taking the cross back above 0.9000 into Friday. Next week will be quiet on the data front, we see topside action capped around 0.9050
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.9008
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.8923- 0.9050
It’s a massive week on the calendar for data in the Canadian Dollar (CAD), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair with a slew of market moving reports to publish. After a week of wild swings, the cross has looked settled so far this week with a Canadian holiday monday making for thin trading conditions. Price waits around 0.8950 level with Aussie Retail Sales, Current Account and the all important RBA cash rate announcement and statement at 4.30 NZT. No change from the 1.0% is forecast today. Thursday’s Bank of Canada rate announcement and statement publish early Friday morning and is also not expected to change from the current 1.75%. Last on the docket is Canadian employment saturday morning. Moves this week will be clearly data dependant its anyone’s guess as to where the cross could close the week- My prediction is somewhere around 0.8900
Current Level: 0.8940
Last Weeks Range: 0.8911-0.8996
A risk on, risk off mood this week was captured in the Australian Dollar (AUD), Canadian Dollar (CAD) pair with volatility high. Price initially looked to push back into the 90’s but was met with poor Australian Construction figures followed by CAPEX results. Construction in Australia has worsened with a contraction over the second quarter. At around 0.8950 Friday we are close to the weekly low and expect to see a break lower if today’s Building Approvals prints down on predictions.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.8924
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.8915- 0.9013
The Australian Dollar (AUD) fell to a three week low of 0.8915 on Monday’s open against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) as currencies gaped lower on trade war fears. Equity markets and risk assets then made up losses when reports surfaced that Chinese officials called Trump wanting to restart trade talks. Better than expected Canadian Retail Sales was overshadowed by the initial escalation of trade was tensions. Any momentum towards 0.9020 looks well capped with further declines expected this week on risk appetite. Canadian Current Account and Aussie Building approvals print Friday.
Current Level: 0.8971
Last Weeks Range: 0.8906-0.9046
The Australian Dollar (AUD) looks to have turned a corner against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) as price pushed back over 0.9000 Monday to 0.9015. With recent CAD weakness and last week’s upbeat employment figures the Aussie has enjoyed fresh support coming off the low of 0.8880 a fortnight ago. Today’s monetary policy minutes from the RBA meeting on August 6th holds market attention with CAD Retail Sales later in the week. More AUD/CAD updates.
Current Level: 0.9008
Last Weeks Range: 0.8930-0.9047
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has steadily improved over the week against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) back into the 90’s to 0.9030 after Aussie employment data impressed. Wage price inflation rose to 0.6% from 0.5% for the quarter to June as well as an increase to the number of new people employed which rose from a flat 500 in June to 41,000 in July after an expected 15,000 was predicted. The unemployment rate stayed at 5.2% since rising in March from 5.0%. Crude oil is holding steady around the 54.00 area but dipped 1% overnight putting added strain on the Loonie. Market focus is now with next week’s Canadian CPI m/m and Retails Sales. I’m picking a continuation of the current trend with price reaching 0.9050 before the weekly close.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.9025
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.8921- 0.9042
The Australian Dollar (AUD) perked up to 0.9050 late last week against the Canadian Dollar in what turned out to be a weekly high before retracing earlier moves lower. Canadian Unemployment came in terrible for the second month running as jobs numbers shrank to -24,000 after a rise of 15,000 was expected. Also unemployment rose to 5.7% from 5.5% boosting rhetoric around whether the Bank of Canada should cut rates. Tuesday’s price sees the cross trading just off the historical low seen last week at 0.8940. A retest of 0.8885 looks on the cards if Australian jobs data doesn’t improve this week.
Current Level: 0.8945
Last Weeks Range: 0.8889-0.9050
After reaching a historic low of 0.8890 post RBNZ announcement Wednesday the Australian Dollar (AUD), Canadian Dollar (CAD) bounced sharply higher Friday to 0.9050 a weekly high. Crude Oil continues to put pressure on the CAD although it rose 3% overnight to 53.00. The RBA announced Tuesday they were keeping the benchmark cash rate at 1.0% with the global outlook remaining questionable and inflation expectations low. This had very little impact on the Aussie dollar movement after the release. An easing bias still remains for the RBA with expectations of further cuts expected based on a “if needed” scenario. Key Canadian Unemployment prints to tomorrow morning is not the focus. Anyone sellers of AUDCAD should consider current prices.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.9008
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.8889- 0.9050
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continued its fortnight run lower into Tuesday against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) to 0.8920, the lowest price seen in many years. Strong Canadian Trade Balance at 0.1B compared to -0.3B forecast boosted the CAD Friday into the close, despite falling Crude Oil values. Today’s RBA cash rate and statement is the highlight on the calendar this week with markets split as to whether we will see a cut to 0.75% or pause until the November meeting. We expect more downside to continue.
Current Level: 0.8949
Last Weeks Range: 0.8901-0.9095
As we noted in the last commentary the Australian Dollar (AUD) has been unable to hold the support level of 0.9070 falling to a multi year low against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) to 0.8990. Quarterly CPI rose to 0.6% from 0.5% markets were expecting causing a pause to the downside midweek momentum, but with Canadian GDP releasing at 0.2% after 0.1% highlighting a third straight month of increases the Aussie was again under heavy pressure. With price extending below 0.9000 we could see further lower levels reached especially if next week’s RBA on Tuesday is dovish going forward.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.8991
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.8976- 0.9067
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to not only look very poorly against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) but across the board as it has depreciated a large chunk over the past week. Two weeks prior the Aussie had one of its best weeks of 2019 rallying 150 points to 0.9250 but has since continued its bearish quest to scary low levels today of 0.9080. There is not much cushion between solid support of 0.9070 and dropping further into the abyss and levels not seen for several years. Today’s Aussie Building Approvals and tomorrow’s quarterly CPI should give us more clues as to direction and where we can expect price to be. Also later this week Australian Retail Sales followed by Canadian Trade Balance will be closely watched by markets. With the CAD offering 1.75% and the AUD 1.0% return on cash lower prices in this pair may already be a forgone conclusion especially with talk of the RBA easing further.
Current Level: 0.9086
Last Weeks Range: 0.9076-0.9246
Support for the Australian Dollar (AUD) over the past two weeks ended abruptly Tuesday after price moved sharply lower from the 0.9240 high to 0.9130 against the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Initially continuing last week’s momentum with disappointing Canadian Core Retail Sales -0.3% vs +0.3% devaluing the CAD. But with RBS’s Lowe making comment more cuts could be on the horizon economic data dependant the Aussie lost its mojo sinking a fresh weekly low. Unplanned outages and sanctions on Iran and Venezuela to oil production suggesting a recent decrease of around 8% are the reasons why oil prices have been recently well supported thus boosting the Loonie. Next week’s Canadian monthly GDP and Australian Retail Sales feature.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.9140
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.9132- 0.9247
We have seen choppy trading in this pair over the past week, but ultimately it’s the Australain dollar (AUD) which has had the upper hand. Disappointing data from Canada at the end of last week, in the form of Core Retail Sales which printed at -0.3% vs +0.3% expected, pressure the Canadian dollar (CAD) and helped to drive the pair to the week’s high of 0.9241. Currently the market is trading just below there at 0.9231. The economic calendar this week looks very light from both countries with just a speech from RBA Gov Lowe of any note. We favour the AUD continuing to outperform the CAD with a target of 0.9315 over the coming week or two.
Current Level: 0.9231
Last Weeks Range: 0.9142-0.9242
The Australian dollar (AUD) has had a strong week against its Canadian counterpart rallying from a low of 0.9072 to currently trade at 0.9182, just shy of key resistance around 0.9200. A dovish statement from the Bank of Canada after their latest interest rate meeting helped to drive the move, as did yesterday’s release of stronger than forecast Chinese activity data. All eyes now shift to the RBA minutes set for release in the coming hours. On Thursday we then have Australian employment numbers to digest. Resistance around 0.9200 should provide a tough barrier to crack, and any move above there would be a bullish sign.
Current Level: 0.9184
Last Weeks Range: 0.9073-0.9187
The Canadian dollar (CAD) has outperformed the Australian dollar (AUD) over the past week, driving the pair to a low of 0.9110 in the wake of Fridays employment data. That’s the second time the pair has tested the 0.9110 area, after bouncing from there a couple of weeks ago. Whether or not that support level continues to hold will largely depend on what the Bank of Canada say at their regular interest rate meeting this week. They are not expected to cut interest rates at all and they may well upgrade their forecasts for GDP over the coming months. That should support the CAD and potentially see the AUDCAD have another crack at 0.9110 support.
Current Level: 0.9130
Last Weeks Range: 0.9110-0.9204
The Australian Dollar (AUD), Canadian Dollar (CAD) pair has been bouncing around current range bound levels for a couple of weeks now pivoting around the 0.9160 area. A massive Canadian Trade Balance with a surplus of 762 million for May just the second time since March 2017 and a positive Australian Trade Balance and Building Approvals resulted in the cross going nowhere. The RBA cut their benchmark cash rate from 1.25% to 1.0% Wednesday for the second straight month. The first time back to back cuts have happened in seven years as the RBA tries to front foot ongoing slowing growth. The sole policy of every central bank in the world is asset price inflation by providing cheap money to stimulate growth and inflation. Next week’s Bank of Canada cash rate release and statement should give the pair direction.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.9171
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.9124- 0.9204
The Australian Dollar (AUD), Canadian Dollar (CAD) broke its range bound mould Monday after dropping below support of 0.9160 to 0.9130 as risk investors left the table. The Aussie is weaker heading into today’s RBA announcement- perhaps a sign of things to come? Consensus suggests the RBA will deliver a dovish statement and cut their cash rate from 1.25% to 1.0% today at 4.30 NZT. The Reserve Bank of Australia look ready to deliver back to back cuts as they have recently signalled that easing policy will be needed to boost economic growth. Inflation dropped from 1.8% to an alarming 1.3.% in April and unemployment is starting to rise. However the initial analysis on perceived further cuts was that the RBA would cut in August because the data wasn’t weak enough, this was said only a few days ago. Traditionally if this is anything to go off, the RBA has gone two moves- 3 months apart, if they stick to this we will see rates unchanged today and a higher AUD.
Current Level: 0.9152
Last Weeks Range: 0.9125-0.9203
Price in the Australian Dollar (AUD), Canadian Dollar (CAD) pair has flatlined around 0.9175 this week. I would suggest a stand off between heavy buyer interest back in Crude Oil and the surging commodity markets cancelling out any real shifts and offsetting Loonie bearishness stemming from poor recent Canadian Retail Sales. Canadian m/m GDP is expected to be positive around 0.2% and show the first back to back expansion since late 2018. We expect downside risks to continue with 0.9120 to be retested.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.9170
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.9154- 0.9196
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has recovered off its multi-year low of 0.9100 against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) pushing higher to 0.9190 during the overnight NY session. Canadian Retail Sales printed poor Friday at 0.1% from the 0.3% markets were expecting and seemed like the saving grace of the cross falling below the key level of 0.9100. Risk currencies have enjoyed a little relief this week with Trump and the Chinese officials confirming they would get together at Thursday’s G20 and discuss trade options. We still expect the downside to be further tested.
Current Level: 0.9173
Last Weeks Range: 0.9105-0.9212
The Australian Dollar (AUD) broke new ground lower this week to 0.9120 against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) bringing into play the massive multi year low of 0.9100. Three significant factors have influenced price this week in the pair- A dovish RBA Lowe speech with at least one further rate cut this year to be expected. Crude Oil rallied to 57.00 a whole 5.5% and Canadian m/m CPI printed at 0.4% much higher than the 0.1% markets predicted. Holding key support of 0.9100 looks a tall order, we don’t expect this level to hold but Canadian Retail Sales could determine tonight.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.9125
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.9113- 0.9229
The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovered slightly at the weekly close rebounding back to 0.9230 against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) but continued its demise overnight to 0.9185 with a lack of buyer support for the Aussie. Crude Oil continues to bounce around, Crude dropping 1% during overnight trading to 51.90, but with big picture geopolitical outcomes weighing on the AUD especially with Chinese data printing poor such as Friday’s Industrial Production this continues to weigh on the Aussie. All eyes will be on Today’s RBA minutes from the 4th June Monetary Policy Statement. 0.9100 marks a level which has not been seen prior to 2013. Should the pair travel this low it’s anyone’s guess how low it could go.
Current Level: 0.9191
Last Weeks Range: 0.9178-0.9254
The Australian Dollar (AUD) lost further ground against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) this week extending a second week of declines to 0.9205. Aussie employment numbers were mixed with the unemployment rate up at 5.2% based on 5.1% predictions. The country added more than 42,000 to the workforce but the gains were mostly part time workers at 39,800 which kept the AUD under pressure. On the upside the participation rate clicked higher to 65.9% to 66% in May which is a record high. Crude Oil continues to depreciate trading now just over 51.00 per barrel but this strangely has had no real impact on downside to the CAD. The cross now trades only a few points away from the yearly low of 0.9200 and looks to retest this level.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.9209
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.9178- 0.9284
The buoyant Australian Dollar (AUD) turned sharply lower mid last week off 0.9400 levels closing the week against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) around 0.9300. The loonie has extended its run into Tuesday reaching a fresh two week low of 0.9230. Late Friday a solid Canadian employment figures surprised markets with an additional 5,000 people were expected to be added to the labour force but the number turned out to be much higher at 27,000, this follows the stellar print from the 106,000 increase in April. The unemployment rate also was impressive dropping to 5.4% from 5.7% expected. 0.9200 offers huge support in the cross, a drop through here could spell a much larger decline lower.
Current Level: 0.9230
Last Weeks Range: 0.9225-0.9393
The AUD has given back some of last week’s gains and after opening the week at a high of 0.9394 is now back around the 0.9345 mark. With pretty much all the negative news priced into the AUD if 0.9325 holds , buyers of AUD at current levels should be rewarded with a move towards 0.9400 and above.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.9345
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.9331- 0.9395
The Australian dollar (AUD) has outperformed the Canadian dollar (CAD) this week, rallying from a low of 0.9288 to currently trade around 0.9350. The Bank of Canada rate decision last night failed to provide any significant surprises with the overnight cash rate held steady at 1.75%. We have some economic data from both countries out over the next day or so, with Private Capital Expenditure from Australian and GDP from Canada, but the main event in the coming week will be the RBA interest rate decision on Tuesday 4th June. A rate is almost a certainty and that should provide a bit of volatility in the AUD. We continue to view in dips in the AUDCAD cross as a buying opportunity with the AUD looking to make further gains against the CAD.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.9352
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.9291- 0.9368
With Crude Oil back below 60.00 per barrel, dropping to a low of 58.20 late in the week the Australian Dollar (AUD) bounced off the low of 0.9200 to recoup earlier losses pushing as high as 0.9320 Friday versus the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Earlier global concerns weighed in again after poor US data which led to falls in equities and commodity currencies. Price action looks to retrace towards the earlier low with a thin calendar through to Thursdays Bank of Canada Cash rate announcement and policy statement. An unchanged 1.75% is widely expected with inflation meeting the target range in the first quarter this year.
Current Level: 0.9303
Last Weeks Range: 0.9200-0.9315
With Crude Oil prices falling overnight to 58.10 a 5.7% drop in value this devalued the Canadian Dollar (CAD) back off the midweek low of 0.9201 to 0.9300 levels morning versus the Australian Dollar (AUD). Earlier the RBA ensured movement was limited to the downside (low of 0.9201) after commenting midweek that they have finally realised, after poor recent employment data the economy is slowing. This in turn should see a cut to the cash rate at the June 4 meeting with possibly another cut to follow later in the year. Core Canadian Retail Sales also initially boosted the CAD when they published at a whopping 1.7% from the expected 0.8% earlier yesterday. We think price should retrace back towards the early week low of 0.9201 when a lack of support for the AUD resumes.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.9273
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.9201- 0.9312
The AUD has opened the week with a stronger tone against the CAD up at 0.9310, but has subsequently slid to the 0.9290 level as the risk averse tone continues across all markets as China/US trade tensions ratchet higher and concerns around an RBA rate cut next month…Given the potential for the US/Canada trade agreement to be settled look for the CAD to revert to its upward trend against the AUD on this cross…moves back into the mid 0.9300 level should be taken as AUD selling opportunities.
Current Level: 0.9284
Last Weeks Range: 0.9229-0.9397
Although the CAD has weakened against the USD over the week, the prevailing risk-off tone and election uncertainty has seen the AUD weaken on cross throughout the week. From 0.9390 on Monday the AUD/CAD is now around 0.9274 …0.9260 level should hold for the day heading into the weekend and election but a break of this level would see a test of 0.9200/05 support mark , last seen in October last year.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.9276
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.9262 – 0.9431
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has fallen four weeks’ straight against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) to 0.9360 Tuesday. Overnight US equities dropped more than 2.5% each across all three indices with a risk averse feel back dominating market movement. With further break down in trade talks between the US and China the Aussie will continue to remain under pressure as this has massive economic consequences. Canadian employment rose by a massive 107,000 Saturday rebounding after falling in March with notable increases in part time work for the youth. The unemployment rate also dropped to 5.7% from 5.8% the releases taking the cross from the 0.9420 area to 0.9370. With more risk on the table with US China trade we see the Aussie retesting the early March low of 0.9320.
Current Level: 0.9363
Last weeks Range: 0.9348-0.9456
The Australian Dollar (AUD) drifted lower against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) as markets continued its risk off mood. The RBA left the cash rate unchanged Tuesday at 1.5% with a neutral wait and see style slant, initially dropping the Aussie to 0.9365 before it recovered to 0.9460. Canadian Trade Balance published down on expectations of -2.4B at -3.2B with imports increasing 2.5% in March narrowing the deficit from -3.4B in February. Canadian Jobs numbers prints early tomorrow. Currently trading around the 0.9420 area we see further downside in the pair eventuating.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.9422
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.9376- 0.9456
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continued to lose ground against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) towards the end of the week dropping to 0.9420 at the close. Aussie Building approvals printed a disappointing number of -15.5% versus -12.5 confirming further deterioration in the Australian property market. The CAD held the upper hand into the weekly close and continued its run into Tuesday. Today’s Retail Sales and RBA cash rate and monetary statement promises to be action packed.
Current Level: 0.9394
Last Weeks Range: 0.9373-0.9508
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been the worst performer over the week across the board and dropping in value 0.53% against the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Canadian GDP contracted -0.1% for February following 0.3% growth in January pushing the CAD initially lower. But talk of a rate cut in next Tuesday’s RBA announcement has investors selling the Aussie. Today’s Building approvals looks to be crucial to affecting the decision with the property market performing poorly. Price Friday hovers around the 0.9420 close to the seven week low of 0.9410
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.9417
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.9411- 0.9507
The Australian Dollar (AUD) held around the 0.9440 area late during Friday trading against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) going on to reverse early week losses back to 0.9500 levels leading into the close. Crude Oil prices have come off earlier highs bringing sellers of CAD back into the picture. Currently price is holding steady circa 0.9490 levels with Canadian m/m GDP to print tomorrow and Aussie Building Approvals Friday.
Current Level: 0.9477
Last Weeks Range: 0.9438-0.9540
A combination of Australian dollar (AUD) pressure and stronger crude oil prices boosting the Canadian dollar (CAD), helped to dive this pair lower throughout the past week and overnight it reached 0.9502 before staging small bounce. Today’s Australian inflation data will be key for direction going forward. We suspect the risks are skewed toward a weaker than forecast result, and further AUD weakness. Support at 0.9480 is the next target.
Current Level: 0.9533
Last Weeks Range: 0.9502-0.9606
On this cross the AUD has rallied from 0.9516 to around 0.9570 mainly on the back of the softer data from Canada pointing to a slowdown in the Canadian economy for Q1. We favour the AUD on this cross and look for a break over the 0.9600 level to test 0.9620 later in the week.
Current Level: 0.9563
Last Weeks Range: 0.9476-0.9581
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its edge over the Canadaian Dollar (CAD) this week reaching a fresh high of 0.9565 after RBA governor talked up the economy. Debelle said they are in a position to lower rates from the current 1.50% and he would watch incoming data to make a call on if the housing market was stabalising. Wow really?. Crude oil came off its current high falling back to 63.70 down 1.60% overnight based on the (IEA) International Energy Agency saying ongoing global uncertainty could lead to lower demand. Risk sentiment dragged the Aussie lower, the CAD has recovered to 0.9530 during NY.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.9530
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.9477- 0.9564
The Australian Dollar (AUD) rose to 0.9450 Friday against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) buoyed by a string of fantastic AUD data releases ending with Retail Sales printing at 0.8% from the 0.3% experts were predicting. Price fall back towards 0.9500 at the close of business Friday after being at 0.9550- based on the Canadian Employment release and Crude Oil tracking to new highs. This week price has been bouncing around the 0.9500 area as markets await Westpac consumer sentiment.
Current Level: 0.9481
Last Weeks Range: 0.9549-0.9415
Governor Lowe left rates on hold at 1.50% Tuesday saying the outlook for a global downturn is real with downside risks ahead for the Aussie economy. The Aussie weakened to around 0.9415 against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) but was soon back trading at the 0.9500 mark Friday. The CAD has generally been a little choppy but with Crude Oil prices holding up over 62.00, this has given strong support for the Loonie across the board but with price now trading in the red overnight this has put pressure firmly back on the CAD. Canadian employment data publishes tomorrow morning with a slightly negative jobs number predicted with unemployment expected to remain at a hefty 5.8%
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.9512
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.9414- 0.9523
The Australian Dollar (AUD) started the week on a positive note gaping to 0.9530 on risk sentiment but was soon under pressure from the Canadian Dollar (CAD) after strong overnight Crude oil prices pushed buyers into CAD. Crude rallied to 61.55 the high where it currently sits. Earlier we saw price drop back to 0.9470 after Canadian monthly GDP printed much higher at 0.3% than the 0.1% markets were expecting offsetting declines from late 2018. Current levels represent good buying levels buying CAD after being as low as 0.9315 in early March.
Current Level: 0.9460
Last Weeks Range: 0.9451-0.9562
The Australian Dollar (AUD) retreated from its mid week high of 0.9562 against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) to around 0.9500 levels in what has been a choppy week. No real significant data has left the pair drifting around the weekly open. Tomorrows Canadian m/m CPI should give us more to go on.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.9512
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.9485- 0.9562
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continued is push higher on Monday’s open to 0.9455 against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) a seven week high. Crude oil has tracked lower off its recent highs and Friday’s Retail sales put the CAD well on the backfoot with the release disappointing. This week’s focus will be firmly on Canadian m/m GDP for April with March showing a poor -0.1%.
Current Level: 0.9528
Last Weeks Range: 0.9413-0.9547
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has climbed to 0.9520 this week against its struggling Canadian Dollar (CAD) counterpart. This to me doesn’t make a lot of sense after Crude oil is trading just off the November high of 60.40 at 59.80 which would usually suggest significant buyer interest in the CAD but this has not happened. Yesterday’s buoyant Australian jobs data pushed up interest in the Aussie but overall the lack of any CAD buying does suggest to me how much the Canadian economy is struggling. We know how much the BoC was dovish in their last meeting, but I suspect they are staring down the barrel of a rate cut fairly soon.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.9504
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.9411- 0.9521
Despite recent strong employment data the Canadian Dollar (CAD) has struggled to gain any momentum over the past three weeks of trading. Last week the Australian Dollar continued its bullish run higher to 0.9450 and Tuesday 0.9470. Crude Oil prices are the highest they have been in 5 months at reaching 59.20 but this has failed to spark CAD buyers. Usually with such a decent spike in Crude we would see strong CAD strength but this just hasn’t eventuated showing how much the Canadian economy is under the pump. RBA minutes today and Thursday’s Aussie jobs data along with Saturday’s Canadian CPI could make for a volatile cross. Huge resistance is seen at 0.9500 – if price travels through here we could see 0.9570
Current Level: 0.9464
Last Weeks Range: 0.9386-0.9490
The Australian Dollar (AUD) retraced lower off the five week high of 0.9490 versus the Canadian Dollar (CAD) as markets turned risk averse based on Brexit headlines a week of no data releasing in the pair we have seen support return for the CAD with the latest run up in Crude Oil with prices reaching 58.74 on demand and a lack of supply. We have a way to travel to match the yearly low of 0.9315 but if crude extends higher who knows.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.9410
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.9386- 0.9490
The Australian Dollar (AUD) surged back towards the five week high of 0.9483 Tuesday against the Canadian Dollar. Risk markets preferring the slightly more stable AUD after comments from last week out of the Bank of Canada (BoC) meeting highlighted they would not be looking to raise rates based on uncertainty and a deteriorating economic outlook. It’s a quiet week of data for the pair with just RBA assistant governor Debelle speaking today and Canadian Manufacturing figures Friday.
Current Level: 0.9462
Last Weeks Range: 0.9389-0.9482
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has had slightly more support over the Canadian Dollar throughout the week rising to 0.9470 from the weekly open of 0.9418. Both the CAD and AUD have been weak with worse than expected data publishing but the Aussie has feared a touch better. The Bank of Canada maintained the cash rate at 1.75% but has watered down earlier predictions that rates will go higher with outlook uncertainty on the horizon. They need further stimulus to get greater confirmation around timing of future increases. The Aussie looked gone for all money during yesterday’s quarterly GDP announcement coming in at 0.2% from 0.5% expectations but Trade Balance saving the day with a positive reading of 4.55B over 2.85B stabalising the currency. We still favour movement to the downside in the coming weeks.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.9432
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.9388- 0.9477
Surprisingly with all the Australian Dollar weakness of late the Aussie (AUD) has extended its bull run from last week’s low of 0.9310 against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) as troubles brew for the CAD. Late last week’s string of poor Canadian data bought back bears into the close with price closing at 0.9410 and up towards 0.9440 Tuesday. The crude oil rally to 57.00 came to an end with price easing back to 56.40 along with equities also closing weaker. 0.9470 acts as staunch resistance with expectations price will drift off for the rest of the week. RBA today who will more than likely be dovish along with recent crappy data.
Current Level: 0.9434
Last Weeks Range: 0.9316-0.9475
The Australian Dollar (AUD) demise continues against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) falling to 0.9330 depreciating every week in 2019 except one. We did however see early support for the Aussie with risk currencies higher early after positive comments made headlines in the ongoing trade talks between China and the US, but since Wednesday optimism has been scaled back. Crude oil came off a low of 55.00 to push back above 57.00 to 57.30 Friday benefited the CAD. Canadian monthly CPI prints tomorrow morning and should give us an updated read on the state of the economy.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.9342
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.9318 – 0.9475
On Friday the Australian Dollar (AUD) looked gone for all money travelling to 0.9315 against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) after a string of bad news hampered any upside moves. Crude Oil has started the week down over 3.2% to 55.45 and has put pressure on the CAD in the early sessions with the Aussie recovering to 0.9460 Tuesday. China and US talks are producing positive headlines which has suited the AUD along with news the Chinese won’t ban Australian Coal. The long term bearish trend channel from 0.9760 is still in play, look for further downside in the pair.
Current Level: 0.9453
Last Weeks Range: 0.9319-0.9487
The Australian Dollar (AUD) held its ground over the week against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) around the 0.9450 zone but has deteriorated Thursday on bad news. After surprisingly good employment data we briefly saw 0.9485 before Westpac announced they expect the RBA to cut the cash rate in both August and November this year. They also see unemployment rising from the current 5.0% to 5.5%. China announced a total ban of Australian coal imports for 2019 which is China’s top coal supplier and will cap overall imports. Things are certainly not looking to rosy for the Australian economy falling to 0.9430 as coal being Australia’s biggest export earner. Expect price to drop through the 2018 low of 0.9100 soon.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.9388
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.9316- 0.9487
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended last week’s gains against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) to 0.9475 Monday before easing back towards 0.9430 on surging Crude Oil prices. It’s a busy week for the Aussie with plenty of data to publish including employment data. Canadian Retail Sales prints Friday. We still favour a retest of 0.9760 the December high once trade talks have been agreed between China and the US.
Current Level: 0.9435
Last Weeks Range: 0.9383-0.9476
Last week’s solid Canadian jobs report has carried the Canadian Dollar (CAD) early this week to 0.9380 against the Australian Dollar (AUD). Choppy movement from Wednesday saw the Aussie Dollar move up to 0.9470 but as Crude oil posted a 1.0% gain on the day the Aussie has come off the high falling back to 0.9440. A lack of data this week in the pair with only Canadian Manufacturing printing will see the cross meander into the close. The long term bearish move from 0.9760 if still in play.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.9434
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.9382- 0.9468
Fantastic jobs numbers late last week took the Canadian Dollar (CAD), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair to 0.9400 levels after figures confirmed an increase of 66,800 jobs in January. Analysts were only expecting 8,000, the third month in a row job numbers have been good pushing price to November 2018 levels. With Crude stable around the 52.50 area we should see price ease lower with a lack of data out this week for the pair.
Current Level: 0.9388
Last Week’s Range: 0.9380-0.9522
The Australian Dollar (AUD) looked gone for all money Thursday against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) but has recovered off the low of 0.9380 to regain 0.9445 levels. The December 7 high of 0.9580 and the bearish momentum through to yesterday shows the Aussie weakness this year. Not out of the woods just yet a lot of this movement has come with price fluctuations in Crude Oil prices- overnight we saw price drop 2.5% to 52.70 pushing the Aussie higher. Earlier in the week the RBA released their cash rate which stayed unchanged at 1.50%- we have seen no change now since July 5th 2016 after it was lowered from 1.75%. Markets saw the release and statement as less dovish than expected offering momentary relief for the Aussie. While they believe unemployment will gradually fall over the next year they acknowledged a downgrade to GDP growth over the next two years was likely siting global economic factors. Adding to the AUD concerns this week was a a speech yesterday by governor Lowe which surprised investors when his comments were rather more pessimistic than his official monetary statement Tuesday. We support the bearish move as above continuing for a while.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDCAD 0.9411
The interbank range this week has been: AUDCAD 0.9379- 0.9522