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AUD to EUR – Australian Dollars to Euro

When converting Australian dollars to Euro (AUD to EUR), or EUR to AUD, by exchanging via Direct FX, you will save a significant amount of money. Our wholesale currency exchange rates for money transfers are significantly more competitive than bank foreign exchange rates. Being Australasian based, we specialise in knowing what drives AUD/EUR currency conversion rates.

AUD to EUR Overview: From the establishment of the Euro zone, until the financial market crisis of 2008, the AUD and EUR both traded in a relatively stable and correlated fashion. However since 2008 this close correlation has broken down considerably. The Australian economy has maintained upward momentum through its close links to the quickly developing Asian economies. The EURO however has been plagued by sovereign debt issues from its smaller nations, as Germany remains its engine for growth.

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Historical Ranges: 1 year 5 years 10 years
AUD/EURO .5957 – .6599 .5957 – .7339 .5957 – .8620
EURO/AUD 1.5154 – 1.6786 1.3626 – 1.6786 1.1601 – 1.6786

Current Official Cash Rates:
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): 0.25%         European Central Bank (ECB): 0.00%

Price in the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) this week has gone nowhere choosing to bounce around current levels in a thin week of data. Currently 0.6170 (1.6200) RBA’s Lowe maintained the current 0.25% Tuesday choosing to stick with current policy. He said although indicators have picked up over the last few weeks the worst of the global economic downturn has passed. Big call, with outlook to remain bumpy especially as they try to contain coronavirus. Paschal Donohoe has been elected as the new Eurogroup President pushing out favourite Nadia Calvino who had been in pole position in early rounds of voting. Donohoe said his immediate priority is to carve a path forward for rebuilding the European recovery and providing sustainable growth to the EU countries. European Union forecasters are predicting the bloc will contract more than previously thought because of the fallout from coronavirus. The 27 countries are predicted to contract by 8.3% this year before growing again in 2021 by 5.8% according to the latest predictions. Looking ahead we have crucial Aussie employment and the ECB refinancing rate next week on the docket.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6161 EURAUD 1.6231
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6142- 0.6183 EURAUD 1.6172- 1.6279

The Australian Dollar (AUD) backed away from the new high made late last week of 0.6185 (1.6170) against the Euro (EUR) popping lower to 0.6155 (1.6250) as the price bounces around these recent levels. Today’s RBA policy meeting and rate announcement wont rattle investors with a low key statement planned and no change a dead cert. However, we could see some further rhetoric around the overvalued AUD and impacts of round two coronavirus is having on the economy as some suburbs in the state of Victoria lockdown. Tomorrow’s EU quarterly Economic Forecasts of EU member countries could add volatility to the pair if economic forecasts for the next 2 years are dire.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6160 (1.6233)
Resistance: 0.6190 (1.6430)
Support: 0.6085 (1.6160)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6094-0.6188 (1.6161-1.6409)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) broke 3 week key daily resistance at 0.6150 (1.6260) this week to reach 0.6170 (1.6210) Friday. As risk markets came back online the Aussie was boosted by rather positive news around coronavirus vaccine updates. The EU and UK Brexit negotiators are back nutting out a trade deal with EU’s Barnier saying serious differences still remain over a number of important issues. Minor Eurozone data this week has been solid helping to give the Euro a prop, with ECB’s Lagarde saying “the worst is behind us”. The Aussie now eyes the recent daily close at 0.6220 (1.6085) and will be largely dependent on next week’s RBA monetary statement in the near term.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6155 EURAUD 1.6247
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6082- 0.6168 EURAUD 1.6212- 1.6442

Risk mood deteriorated over the weekend with fears of a coronavirus second wave fallout. The Euro (EUR) is higher Tuesday against the Australian Dollar (AUD) reaching 0.6080 (1.6440) before falling back to 0.6105 (1.6380). The pair has been mostly range bound over the past two weeks following comments made from ECB president Lagarde. Lagarde warned the Eurozone’s economic recovery will be complicated but confirmed the ECB’s commitment to supporting the recovery. Coming up we have just Australian Trade Balance on the calendar.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6109 (1.6370)
Resistance: 0.6150 (1.6430)
Support: 0.6090 (1.626)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6081-0.6156 (1.6244-1.6444)

A range bound week in the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross has ensured price remained around 0.6130 (1.6320) for the second week running. German and French Manufacturing and Services data released above expectations surprising investors when figures showed a strong bounce back in June. Qantas announced they will chop at least 6,000 jobs putting the Aussie under pressure in recent sessions. While risk is holding up well in the face of IMF global downgrades and China-US trade tensions we think this won’t last and the AUD will start to slide long term.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6126 EURAUD 1.6323
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6091- 0.6156 EURAUD 1.6244- 1.6415

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has resumed its bullish mood into Tuesday trading sessions against the Euro (EUR) spiking to 0.5150 (1.6260). RBA’s Lowe jawboned the Aussie dollar yesterday saying he wasn’t surprised to see it so high but would prefer to see it lower late this year. The RBA may sit on the side lines at the next meeting as officials vow to not increase the cash rate target until full employment. Lowe says a lower AUD would assist to help lift inflation. French and German manufacturing release later today with further drops to production figures expected for May.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6143 (1.6278)
Resistance: 0.6155 (1.6580)
Support: 0.6030 (1.6250)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6087-0.6165 (1.6221-1.6429)

In early week trading the Australian Dollar (AUD) was sold off to 0.6035 (1.6575) against the Euro (EUR) but found support and perked up to reach 0.6160 (1.6240) midweek. Into Friday price consolidated around the 0.6135 (1.6300) zone as markets await today’s Aussie Retail Sales. Aussie unemployment printed worse than markets were expecting at -227,000 versus -105,000 people filing for unemployment in May. The unemployment rate also jumped higher than expected to 7.1%. We favour a return to 0.6230 (1.6060) in the coming days continuing the pairs bullish trend from mid-March 2020
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6119 EURAUD 1.6342
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6035- 0.6165 EURAUD 1.6219- 1.6570

A volatile start to the week in the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) pair has price supporting the Aussie early this week to 0.6130 (1.6320) as risk sentiment improves during overnight trading. Certainly, with Australia/China tensions and new waves of coronavirus entering play in Europe the pair should continue to be bouncy. If China and Australia continue with recent unpleasant rhetoric around coronavirus investigations we may see Beijing retaliate with commerce action against Australia. Australia are also set to announce another terrible jobs figure for May later this week which could sink the Aussie. A retest of the previous low at 0.6025 (1.6600) could be on the cards.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6126 (1.6323)
Resistance: 0.6170 (1.6580
Support: 0.6030 (1.6200)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6030-0.6225 (1.6065-1.6584)

A volatile start to the week in the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) pair has price supporting the Aussie early this week to 0.6130 (1.6320) as risk sentiment improves during overnight trading. Certainly, with Australia/China tensions and new waves of coronavirus entering play in Europe the pair should continue to be bouncy. If China and Australia continue with recent unpleasant rhetoric around coronavirus investigations we may see Beijing retaliate with commerce action against Australia. Australia are also set to announce another terrible jobs figure for May later this week which could sink the Aussie. A retest of the previous low at 0.6025 (1.6600) could be on the cards.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6126 (1.6323)
Resistance: 0.6170 (1.6580
Support: 0.6030 (1.6200)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6030-0.6225 (1.6065-1.6584)

After reaching 0.6230 (1.6050) the 2020 high in the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) cross, a shift to “risk off” took the cross sharply lower into Friday to 0.6040 (1.6550). The pair is still bullish but only just. A shift lower through 1.6570 would confirm further downside bias. NAB Business Confidence highlighted a broad-based improvement in activity with confidence levels a little more positive in May. We are still far above the long run average of similar depths seen during the GFC and given coronavirus levels are very low in Australia this has quickened the recovery of sorts. German economic sentiment next week will be the focus in an otherwise quiet week. We expect price to return to recent highs in the next couple of weeks as risk mood improves.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6045 EURAUD 1.6542
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6030- 0.6224 EURAUD 1.6066- 1.6584

Risk currencies continue to dominate with momentum squarely flowing over from last week’s action. The Australian Dollar (AUD) has started the week on a solid footing against the Euro making it to 0.6215 (1.6090) into Tuesday sessions. Last week the ECB left the main refinancing rate on hold while upping its PEPP contribution by an additional 500B to be spent until mid-2021. German Industrial Production printed a disappointing -17.9% based on -16% expectation in April, one economist has called it “the worst month ever” for the German economy at the height of coronavirus. We expect a retest of last week’s high of 0.6240 (1.6030) to enter play later today which marks the yearly high.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6203 (1.6121)
Resistance: 0.6280 (1.6580)
Support: 0.6030 (1.5920)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6092-0.6237 (1.6033-1.6415)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has reversed the last 3 weeks of rangy action against the Euro to push through the prior resistance area of 0.6070 (1.6470) to reach 0.6170 (1.6200) Wednesday morning. The Euro may get a little slice of love tomorrow when the ECB announce a further 500B top up to the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme. The RBA decided to maintain the 0.25% rate and current monetary policy at yesterday’s meeting and said they were prepared to scale up its bond buying programme to maintain long term yield targets. The cross is targeting the yearly high of 0.6250 (1.6000), if risk markets prevail for a while longer, we should see this area broken.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6226 (1.6061)
Resistance: 0.6380 (1.6570)
Support: 0.6035 (1.5670)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5963-0.6215 (1.6090-1.6770)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) broke into fresh yearly territory through Wednesday against the Euro (EUR) on improved risk markets to 0.6080 (1.6450). However with the new EU stimulus package becoming a reality the Euro got a new lease of life reversing all previous losses to 0.5990 (1.6690) into Friday. Meanwhile Lagarde hinted at more stimulus ahead. It’s amazing how reliant the Aussie has been of late with the war of words starting over Hong Kong and China cutting coal production, still even with mixed comments from Lowe the Aussie remains strong.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.5983 EURAUD 1.6714
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.5968- 0.6078 EURAUD 1.6452- 1.6754

The AUD has had a slow steady climb against the EUR over the last week from 0.5925 to 0.6023- currently sitting around 0.6018 with concerns over the effect of further Chinese tariffs on Aussie exports offset by news that the ECB will look at easing rates further to stimulate the EU region’s growth….upside resistance is around 0.6050 February’s high , which if broken would target a move to the 0.6105 level. Short term the AUD could come under pressure from trade tariffs, but medium term the AUD is favoured on this cross.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6005 (1.6652)
Resistance: 0.6045 (1.6900)
Support: 0.5920 (1.6550)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5929-0.6018 (1.6615-1.6865)

Bouncing off 0.5930 (1.6860) the weekly close and travelling back to 0.6000 (1.6650) into Tuesday the Euro (EUR) has given back most of last week’s gains versus the Australian Dollar (AUD) The Euro did halt AUD momentum midweek for a bit after German Chancellor Merkel agreed taxpayers would underwrite as much as EUR 135B of aid to assist the hardest hit EU countries rebuild from the devastation of coronavirus. French and German Manufacturing figures released down on expectations for May but show a noticeable easing decline from April numbers. However, companies are still widely pessimistic with job cuts and discounted prices for products and services still being offered. We expect the early February low at 1.6350 could be retested over the next couple of weeks.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.5993 EURAUD 1.6686
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.5931- 0.6018 EURAUD 1.6616- 1.6860

Risk market sentiment improved the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 1.6690 into Tuesday against the Euro (EUR) with markets feeling better about a possible vaccine. Perhaps it’s the recent German court ruling against the EU which has faded or perhaps its Eurozone businesses reopening. Or maybe it’s the news France and Germany have proposed a 500B Euro recovery fund overnight in a joint plan to add relief from the coronavirus crisis to EU countries hardest hit. All of the above I think, with markets reversing the flight to safety we saw during last week’s trading. German and French Manufacturing release at the end of the week but for now focus is on the RBA minutes later today. Resistance is seen at the prior high of 0.6040 (1.6550) with Aussie spikes well supported.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5986 (1.6705)
Resistance: 0.6045 (1.6870)
Support: 0.5930 (1.6540)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5920-0.6022 (1.6607-1.6891)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) edged lower over the week against the Euro (EUR) reaching 1.6830 Friday. AUD risk off flow based on poor employment data took the Aussie off its 11-week high of 0.6050 (1.6525) Australia released its biggest monthly Jobs decline on record of 595K for April. The number was fairly expected with falls perhaps mitigated by the unemployment rate not rising as much (6.2% v 8.3%). Prime Minister Morrison said it was devastating to lose so many jobs. Euro buyers felt more comfortable after a less worrying German court ruling demanding the ECB provide a better framework for its QE. For the moment the pair sits nicely within its bullish channel- we expect further Euro weakness to develop and the recent high retested.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.5977 EURAUD 1.6729
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.5939- 0.6048 EURAUD 1.6532- 1.6836

The Australian Dollar (AUD) tested last week’s high at 1.6540 during Monday trading against the Euro (EUR) but didn’t end up pushing on. The RBNZ has an easing bias with more stimulus expected at tomorrow’s announcement. The ECB continues to underperform aligned with the German court ruling that the ECB will need to justify its asset purchase program. The EU has threatened to sue Germany over the ruling for not following EU laws. The standout on the calendar is Thursday’s Aussie employment numbers with expectations unemployment will grow to 8.3% in April from March’s 5.2%. Heavy resistance looks to be 0.6130 (1.6320) on the chart which could come into play if risk markets push ahead and favour the AUD.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5970 (1.6704)
Resistance: 0.6045 (1.6540)
Support: 0.5830 (1.6540)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5888-0.6049 (1.6532-1.6985)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovered off the weekly close of 1.7105 against the Euro (EUR) to regain losses to 0.6020 (1.6620) into Friday as risk markets kept the upper hand. The RBA left the cash rate at 0.25% at its policy meeting with the board saying they won’t increase the cash rate until full employment is reached and they can be confident inflation can be sustained within the 2-3% band. Earlier the ECB decided to modify their targeted lending to further support the EU economy and provide more credit to households and companies in order to alleviate the disruption and uncertainty in the coronavirus outbreak. From 24 June 2020 to 23 June 2021 the rate on TLTRO (targeted longer-term refinancing operations) has been lowered 50 basis points below the main refinancing rate which will allow cheaper money/funds to flow into the economy where it’s needed. The Aussie now targets the daily close of 0.6035 (1.6570)- representing a 9-week high, we expect the AUD to break higher through this key zone.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6000 EURAUD 1.6672
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.5814- 0.6019 EURAUD 1.6613- 1.7197

The Australian Dollar (AUD) reached a fresh early March high of 0.6045 (1.6540) Friday before risk markets bought back the Euro (EUR) into the close back below the pivotal 0.6000 physiological level to 0.5840 (1.7120). The ECB decided to modify their targeted lending to further support the EU economy and provide more credit to households and companies in order to alleviate the disruption and uncertainty in the coronavirus outbreak. From 24 June 2020 to 23 June 2021 the rate on TLTRO (targeted longer term refinancing operations) has been lowered 50 basis points below the main refinancing rate which will allow cheaper money/funds to flow into the economy where it’s needed. Risk markets Tuesday are back supporting the Aussie but we fear getting past 0.6040 (1.6550) will be a struggle.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5900 (1.6949)
Resistance: 0.6045 (1.7320)
Support: 0.5775 (1.6540)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5816-0.6046 (1.6540-1.7194)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to recover off the daily close of 0.5250 (1.9030) from mid March reaching the key physiological 0.6000 (1.6650) Tuesday. With 6 straight weeks of outperforming the Euro (EUR) the Aussie now approaches the crossroads around 0.6030 1.6590. A breakthrough here could spell a further rally to 0.6210 (1.6100). Spanish unemployment rose to 14.4% after a whopping 15.6% was expected for the first quarter of 2020 with coronavirus clearly impacting. Germany has reopened some schools and Italy will start to ease lockdown measures next week. French and Spanish GDP figures publish Thursday before the ECB’s Monetary Policy where they will no doubt take stock of how easing has gone and what tweaks they need to make. Buying EUR around 0.6000 represents extremely good buying- don’t wait.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6007 (1.6647)
Resistance: 0.6030 (1.7090)
Support: 0.5850 (1.6580)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5777-0.6014 (1.6629-1.7311)

Covid-19 cases in France and Italy have weighed on the Euro through Friday with the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) cross posting a fresh high of 0.5920 (1.6900). Overnight EU leaders have been in talks on a fresh recovery package after the worst PMI data on record printed. PMI data is expected to be a low point as EU countries fight against coronavirus. The leader’s crisis meeting turned into nothing new with disagreements a plenty, and Lagarde telling leaders they have done too little too late. Breaking higher through the 7 week high at 0.5870 (1.7035) is significant and supports further weakness in the Euro with the next pivotal area being 0.5950 (1.6800).

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.5903 EURAUD 1.6940
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.5773- 0.5921 EURAUD 1.6887- 1.7321

The drop in Crude Oil prices to below zero has weighed on risk currencies such as the Australian Dollar (AUD) overnight which has seen price agst the Euro (EUR) bounce from 0.5885 (1.7000) to 0.5835 (1.7140) The Aussie started the week well as coronavirus numbers continue to slim in Australia but the Aussie lost support at pivotal resistance. RBA governor Lowe is due to speak today on “economic and financial update” in Sydney and should support the Aussie to push into new highs.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5822 (1.7176)
Resistance:0.5880 (0.7315)
Support: 0.5775 (1.7000)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5765-0.5881 (1.7003-1.7347)

Strength in the Australian Dollar (AUD) has extended price to 0.5865 (1.7050) against the Euro (EUR) Tuesday, marking 3 weeks straight of improvements from around 0.5075 (1.9700) levels. NAB Business Confidence index figures published at -66 from February’s -2 highlighting the worst result in history as the fallout of the coronavirus sends the economy into a spin. Tomorrow’s Australian Jobs data for march releases with analysts predicting job losses of 33,000 and unemployment to rise to 5.4% from 5.1%.Look for volatility around the release and a potential reversal of recent moves back to 0.5795 (1.7260) support.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.5845 EURAUD 1.7108
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.5633- 0.5881 EURAUD 1.7003-1.7754

Buyer interest in the Australian Dollar (AUD) overnight as risk sentiment improved saw price higher at 0.5640 (1.7730) a 3 week high against the Euro (EUR) Over the past few days movement in the pair has shaped like pre-coronavirus times looking a lot more consistent and stable. It’s way too early to early in the fight against the virus to be predicting how things will eventuate, but with overnight numbers out of Italy, France and Spain looking better perhaps this is all we need to give us hope. Certainly this is how markets have interpreted it, with risk products benefitting and the Aussie edging higher. The bullish trend should continue with strong support seen at 0.5540 (1.8050).

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5655 (1.7683)
Resistance: 0.5720 (1.8550)
Support: 0.5390 (1.7490)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5518-0.5668 (1.7642-1.8121)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to consolidate around the 0.5585 (1.7900) level against the Euro (EUR) Friday after 3 massive weeks of volatility. Prime Minister Morrison drew inspiration from his great grandmother who lived through the great depression when he said “it’s hard to imagine the world on the other side of the Covid-19 pandemic”. Next week’s data focus will be on the RBA’s Cash rate announcement and Monetary statement which is likely according to analysts predicting they will sit on their hands for some time given the large fiscal stimulus package recently to soften the blow to the economy and spending. Headline coronavirus risk will continue to send the pair into wild swings.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.5586 EURAUD 1.7901
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.5516- 0.5659 EURAUD 1.7671- 1.8127

The Australian Dollar (AUD) clawed back a decent chunk of the last 5 weeks of losses against the Euro (EUR) in the last 8 days of trading recovering off 0.5055 (1.9790) back to 0.5585 (1.7900). That’s over a 5c shift or 4.5% highlighting attractive levels for EUR buyers. Scott Morrison announced his investment of 130Billon to assist wage earners in order to keep Aussies in jobs and businesses reopen post coronavirus. The objective is to keep workers on the payroll with a $1500 a fortnight “job seeker’ allowance. This is applicable to full and part time workers only if you have been with your employer for longer than 12 months. Risks are still skewed to the downside in the pair, we expect to see another bounce in the Euro soon.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5596 (1.7869)
Resistance: 0.5790 (1.8660)
Support: 0.5360 (1.7270)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5386-0.5607 (1.7834-1.8568)

Volatility continues to effect consistent moves in the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) cross with price supporting the Aussie into Wednesday to 0.5600 (1.7850) only to give back gains yesterday to 0.5375 (1.8610) as markets turned risk averse- currently it bounces around the 0.5495 (1.8200) area Friday. Overnight’s action continues to be a worry in Europe with the death toll in Italy at 8,215 nearly triple that of China’s. A record contraction in Manufacturing and Business activity in Germany and France for March shows an unprecedented collapse in business as the coronavirus cases have grown out of hand. March is the largest monthly collapse since data has been collected since 1998. Downward bias in the AUD remains with a possible retest of 0.5330 (1.8750)

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.5480 EURAUD 1.8248
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.5336- 0.5603 EURAUD 1.7845- 1.8739

During yesterday’s short spell of “risk on” the Australian Dollar (AUD) broke topside resistance at 65.30 rallying to post a fresh high of 67.70 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) With the Bank of Japan’s massive QE program in place which will continue for some time, the central bank is worried the economy will stagnate well after overseas economies recover with the impact of coronavirus expected to be enormous. It’s almost inevitable the bank will expand stimulus again in April if the pandemic leads to massive job losses. Given the poor risk sentiment over the past couple of weeks heading into the weekend we could see a fall back in the cross to 64.00. With price above 66.00 currently Yen buyers should consider.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDJPY 65.91
The interbank range this week has been: AUDJPY 62.95- 67.66

The Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) pair reached an unprecedented 0.5050 (1.9800) level late last week for the first time since April 2009 before recovering to close the week at 0.5405 (1.8500) Price into Tuesday has been steady. Lagarde introduced a 750B EUR bond buying program which will continue through 2020 to help offset fallout from coronavirus. Germany has banned all public meetings of more than two people and Chancellor Merkel is placed in self isolation. A downward tone overwhelms the AUD as we will continue to see more risk selling of the AUD for a while yet.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5468 (1.8288)
Resistance: 0.5520 (1.9550)
Support: 0.5115 (1.8120)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5053-0.5553 (1.8009-1.9790)

Crazy low levels in the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair see price trading at the multi-year low into Tuesday around 0.5480 (1.8240). If we go back three weeks to compare price at 0.6100 (1.6400) we quickly see how the AUD has depreciated and underperformed. The ECB announced a fresh package of easing measures in the face of coronavirus offering new loans to banks and liquidity facilities at favourable rates and increased asset purchases to assist the economy. Countries are fast closing borders as the spread of the virus widens, Germany’s cases have jumped to over 6,000 overnight. The new safe haven EUR will continue to push the euro higher against the riskier AUD over the coming months.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5470 (1.8281)
Resistance: 0.5580 (1.8370)
Support: 0.5445 (1.7930)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5455-0.5803 (1.7231-1.8332)

Price in the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross continues to push lower, post earlier week’s mini crash we are currently trading at lows around 0.5650 (1.7700) as coronavirus takes a hold of risk. Overnight the ECB announced a fresh package of easing measures in the face of coronavirus offering new loans to banks and liquidity facilities at favourable rates and increased asset purchases to assist the struggling economy. Many believe the ECB would push out a massive rescue plan but instead shocked markets by boosting QE. With Covid 19 rapidly pushing Europe into recession a fiscal response was also something of expectation but never came. We can’t see a turnaround/reversal for the Aussie any time soon with investors staying clear of volatile risk currencies such as the AUD. These are unprecedented levels which will only worsen.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.5620 EURAUD 1.7793
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.5537- 0.5844 EURAUD 1.7111- 1.8060

The Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) has traded in a wide range since the Monday open affected by the “flash crash” Monday. Price quickly reached 0.5500 (1.8200) and returned to 0.5765 (1.7350) where it seemed to consolidate Tuesday. The pair still maintains a bearish tone as markets are still reeling from more new cases of coronavirus with Italy facing massive issues containing the virus. Anyone trying to feel the lockdown in the country’s north could face three months imprisonment Italy’s interior minister has said.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5777 (1.7310)
Resistance: 0.5850 (1.7650)
Support: 0.5665 (1.7100)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5570-0.5962 (1.6774-1.7954)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) staged a recovery early in the week against the Euro (EUR) to the 0.5950 (1.6800) level. The RBA cut rates 25 basis points on Tuesday to 0.50% to support the economy as it responds to the coronavirus outbreak. The RBA says they are prepared to ease further if necessary, post release the AUD reached 0.5960 (1.6780) boosted also by fourth quarter GDP coming in at 0.5% from the anticipated 0.4%. As coronavirus sentiment sours into Friday price was back at the 0.5850 (1.7000) level as investors exited the Aussie Dollar.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.5899 EURAUD 1.6952
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.5840- 0.5961 EURAUD 1.6774- 1.7122

The AUD has weakened sharply on this cross over the last few days dropping from a high of 0.6198 to 0.5838 over the last two weeks, the lowest level on this cross since the Dec2018 “flash crash”. With the AUD/EUR cross currently holding around 0.5870, today’s RBA interest rate move will be pivotal for this cross, any move in excess of the 0.25% cut already priced in likely to see a further test of 0.5838. We look for continued pressure on the AUD against the EUR given the vulnerability of the Australian economy on Chinese performance.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5870 (1.7036)
Resistance: 0.6000 (1.7241)
Support: 0.5800 (1.6667)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5840-0.6098 (1.6398-1.7122)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has underperformed against the Euro (EUR) slipping lower and extending last week’s losses to 0.5995 (1.6680) Friday. The Euro has benefited from solid economic data with German Ifo Business Climate numbers publishing at 96.1 from the 96.0 predicted for January. Lagarde’s welcomed German plans to pause the debt brake saying fiscal measures in support of the economy are welcome especially under the current circumstances. Australian Construction work done came for the fourth quarter 2019 a disappointing -3.0% from the -1.0% expected and overall for the 2019 year down overall -7.4%. This was followed by capex at -2.8% for the fourth quarter based on predictions of 0.5% growth. With price around the 0.6000 (1.6680) physiological level we may see a kick higher before the weekly close.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.5967 EURAUD 1.6758
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.5967- 0.6110 EURAUD 1.6367- 1.6758

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has given back all its gains from last week’s climb to 0.6210 (1.6100) levels with a solid risk momentum shift prices into Tuesday are back around 0.6085 (1.6435) brought on by coronavirus fears. With 229 new cases of the virus and 6 deaths in Italy at Least ten towns in northern Italy have been locked down to halt the spread. German business morale improved yesterday with the (IFO) survey showing Europe’s biggest economy is so far unaffected by the spread of Coronavirus. The Aussie receiving a double blow as price marches towards the yearly low at 0.6030 (1.6590) and could retest this in the coming days if the risk mood remains. Monthly German prelim CPI for February prints later in the week (expected 0.3%) and will be another barometer of growth and confirmation of virus effects on the economy.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6092 (1.6415)
Resistance: 0.6145 (1.6600)
Support: 0.6020 (1.6270)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6081-0.6207 (1.6111-1.6444)

Poor data publishing in both Euro (EUR) and Australian Dollar (AUD) camps has resulted in a net gain for the EUR this week. Coming off the open at 0.6205 (1.6120) the Euro traded into Friday to 0.6130 (1.6320). German Economic Sentiment reading came in at 8.7 compared to 20.0 expected on the index and Australian employment numbers were poor with the Unemployment Rate edging higher to 5.3% from 5.2%. As a lot of Australian optimism lies in labour market growth the move down to 0.6130 (1.6320) we think is a little unfounded. Especially since you consider recent downbeat comments recently from the ECB. So with thoughts around the cross being a little undervalued we think a move back towards 0.6170 (1.6200) is warranted soon.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6131 EURAUD 1.6310
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6123- 0.6211 EURAUD 1.6100- 1.63306

The Euro 9EUR) had another terrible week losing further ground against the Australian Dollar (AUD) the pair falling back to 0.6205 (1.6120). The Euro has been suffering from a wave of soft economic data of late as worry worsens based on a deteriorating economic outlook. Recent Eurozone Industrial Production disappointed and upcoming German Economic Sentiment is not expected to be good. The yearly high at 0.6260 (1.5965) is bearing down if things don’t improve. This week French and German Manufacturing and Aussie Wage and Unemployment data is to come.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6191 (1.6152)
Resistance: 0.6220 (1.6260)
Support: 0.6150 (1.6080)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6114-0.6216 (1.6087-1.6356)

It’s been one-way traffic this week in the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair with price returning back to 0.6200 (1.6120) from late January. Disappointing Eurozone Industrial Production figures came in lower than expected denting any EUR momentum with the Aussie piggybacking off the good fortunes of a higher kiwi from Wednesday’s RBNZ announcement. Westpac consumer confidence showed a modest improvement in sentiment also boosting the Aussie. 0.6220 (1.6080) is resistance from mid-January, if risk allows we expect this area to be tested.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6196 EURAUD 1.6140
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6089- 0.6217 EURAUD 1.6085- 1.6423

It’s been one-way traffic this week in the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair with price returning back to 0.6200 (1.6120) from late January. Disappointing Eurozone Industrial Production figures came in lower than expected denting any EUR momentum with the Aussie piggybacking off the good fortunes of a higher kiwi from Wednesday’s RBNZ announcement. Westpac consumer confidence showed a modest improvement in sentiment also boosting the Aussie. 0.6220 (1.6080) is resistance from mid-January, if risk allows we expect this area to be tested.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6196 EURAUD 1.6140
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6089- 0.6217 EURAUD 1.6085- 1.6423

The Australian Dollar (AUD) made up ground late last week against the Euro (EUR) bouncing back to 0.6155 (1.6250) after a reasonably upbeat Lowe said the economy remains stable during the RBA monetary statement. Aussie data which followed with Retail Sales and Trade Balance wasn’t so popular dragging down the AUD to 0.6080 (1.6448) post weekly close. Monday’s price action was AUD supportive with the pair travelling back to 0.6130 (1.6320) into Tuesday with risk markets improving as a result of positive coronavirus headlines. We expect action for the rest of the week to pivot around current levels. Lowe speaks later in the week the only focus.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6131 (1.6310)
Resistance: 0.5990 (1.6450)
Support: 0.6080 (1.6255)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6039-0.6152 (1.6256-1.6558)

Risk sentiment continues to drive price this in currencies with the AUD diving to a multi-year daily low of 0.6030 (1.6590) prior to the weekly close against the Euro (EUR). Monday’s risk mood improved along with Aussie Building Approval figures helped to move the Aussie back to 0.6070 (1.6480) With fears Chinese stocks and risk products could be sold off at the Monday open the Chinese Govt have pumped 174B USD into Chinese markets in efforts to offset volatility against the backdrop of the coronavirus outbreak. So far this has worked with a sharp turnaround in the AUD. This week’s RBA cash rate announcement and policy statement holds market attention with expectations they will leave the rate unchanged at 0.75% based on recent improvements to economic data. We expect the cross to retest 0.6100 (1.6400) this week.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6044 (1.6545)
Resistance: 0.6125 (1.6600)
Support: 0.6025 (1.6330)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6026-0.6154 (1.625-1.6594)

The Euro (EUR) pushed passed the heavy daily support area around 0.6135 (1.6300) midweek against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to post a four month low of 0.6070 (1.6470) as coronavirus fears ramp up. This is the biggest weekly slide in the pair since December 2018. Earlier German business sentiment fell short of expectation as the outlook deteriorated indicating the German economy has started the year in a watchful mood. Remember they narrowly avoided a recession in 2019. With a lack of significant economic data headline risk around the coronavirus should continue to dominate direction for several days if not weeks ahead. Next week RBA, Retail Sales and Trade Balance should be interesting.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6088 EURAUD 1.6425
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6072- 0.6184 EURAUD 1.6171- 1.6467

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was significantly weaker off the weekly open against the Euro (EUR) after containment of the coronavirus spooked markets. Falling Today to 0.6135 (1.6300) from 0.6190 (1.6150) and clearing recent support at 0.6140 (1.6285) could see further downside develop for the Aussie. The European Central Bank kept its monetary policy unchanged at minus 0.5% last week and left their bond buying programme at 20B EUR per month outlining the continuation for “as long as necessary”. Australian quarterly CPI is the main focus this week with circumstances around the bushfires affecting crops and distribution networks we could see a spike in the cost of fruit and vegetables. 0.6% is forecast. We expect a short term reversal back towards 0.6155 (1.62500 before more AUD weakness.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6127 (1.6321)
Resistance: 0.6150 (1.6380)
Support: 0.6105 (1.6250)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6127-0.6208 (1.6107-1.6321)

Early week trading in the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) saw price move to 0.6160 (1.6230) prior to Aussie employment data. The European Central Bank kept its monetary policy unchanged at minus 0.5% last night and left their bond buying programme at 20B EUR per month outlining the continuation for “as long as necessary”. They also announced the formal start of its “strategy review”. The Euro was relatively unchanged as the statement was read by Lagarde. Australian Job numbers surprised to the upside pushing up AUD to 0.6210 (1.6100) Thursday after the official Unemployment rate edged down to 5.1% from 5.2% and the participation number for December rose 28,900 based on consensus of 12,000. We pick price to drift back to the 0.6210 (1.6100) area following recent trend.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6193 EURAUD 1.6147
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6162- 0.6208 EURAUD 1.6108- 1.6228

The Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) pair has flatlined over the past week pivoting around the 0.6195 (1.6140) area. With the celebration of Martin Luther King’s birthday yesterday investors took a breather before Friday’s slew of activity. The ECB announces their refinancing rate and publishes the monetary statement Friday along with German and French Manufacturing numbers. We think the EUR should have modest gains this week, but Aussie employment numbers Thursday will be key with unemployment expected to remain at 5.2%

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6198 (1.6134)
Resistance: 0.6215 (1.6250)
Support: 0.6155 (1.6090)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6174-0.6216 (1.6087-1.6198)

Choppy price movement this week in the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) pair has seen the cross trade around 0.6210 (1.6100) for most of the week with a short trip to 0.6215 (1.6090). With a lack of data markets have been focused on the signing of the phase one trade deal between China and the US, which was mostly priced into currencies. The ECB minutes meeting is tonight from the December 13 monetary policy meeting. Increased optimism since then may play a part although negative interest rates impact concerns will still be weighing heavily for a while. Price should drift into next Friday’s ECB cash rate release.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6190 EURAUD 1.6155
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6174- 0.6218 EURAUD 1.6081- 1.6195

2019 price points… open 0.6250 (1.6000), close 0.6280 (1.5930), high 0.6380 (1.5680), low 0.5958 (1.6785).
Despite a massive turnaround by the Australian Dollar (AUD) last week against the Euro (EUR) with price travelling from 0.6140 (1.6290) to 0.6220 (1.6080), we have seen a fresh wave of support for the Euro to 0.6190 (1.6150) Tuesday. With an imminent phase one trade deal in the pipeline this should support the Aussie with expectation of price to test the prior high at 0.6220 (1.6080) this week.

Exchange Rate
Current Level:0.6197 (1.6136)
Resistance: 0.6220 (1.6230)
Support: 0.6160 (1.6080)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6138-0.6218 (1.6081-1.6219)

Stats from last year’s trading in the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) pair which may be of interest…2019 open 0.6250 (1.6000), close 0.6280 (1.5930), high 0.6380 (1.5680), low 0.5958 (1.6785). After stalling just short of the yearly low late December the Euro has outperformed into 2020 trading back to 0.6140 (1.6285) Wednesday. Assisted by a fall in risk mood after conflicts in the Middle East between Iran and the US investors exited the Aussie. Building Approvals for November released higher than expected at a healthy 11.8% over an estimated 2.1% took price back to 0.6185 (1.6170) Thursday with Aussie Trade Balance and Retails this week to come. We expect a retest of 0.6220 (1.6080) before week’s end if risk mood sparks up again and economic data is favorable.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6185 EURAUD 1.6168
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6137- 0.6225 EURAUD 1.6062- 1.6294

The Euro (EUR) continues to reverse last week’s losses against the Australian Dollar (AUD) pushing to 0.6130 (1.6315) into Wednesday just off the 17 October high. Riding off GBP momentum from last week’s election results the Euro improved even though Eurozone Services and Manufacturing data published mixed results. We believe price may struggle to improve through 0.6130 (1.6320) support, Aussie employment tomorrow will be key.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6143 EURAUD 1.6278
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6129- 0.6193 EURAUD 1.6147- 1.6314

The more risk-on tone has seen the AUD trade to a month high around 0.6215 in the last 12 hours, is now back around 0.6196 but the AUD looks happy at these levels and if it can consolidate around the 0.6200 mark on good unemployment data next week has a good chance of threatening AUD/EUR resistance at the 0.6230 level .

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6189 EURAUD 1.6157
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6136- 0.6214 EURAUD 1.6091- 1.6297

Price in the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) pair continues to bounce around the 0.6170 (1.6200) area into Tuesday after a choppy week of movement stemming from mixed Aussie data releases. Given we have minimal data risk towards the end of the year flows in the pair should be contained to recent ranges. Geopolitical risks remain however with US tariffs to be kick in 15 December on Chinese products and UK elections due later this week. A retest of the bottom of the recent band at 0.6130 (1.6320) is probable.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6167 (1.6215)
Resistance: 0.6190 (1.6260)
Support: 0.6150 (1.6150)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6137-0.6195 (1.6142-1.6293)

A lot of Australian economic data has published this week making for choppy price movements in the AUD/EUR cross. The Aussie Dollar is trading slightly higher at 0.6160 (1.6240) Friday. The RBA left their cash rate unchanged at 0.75% saying the global economy remains stable, while risks are still slanted to the downside, the RBA continue to watch intl trade flows and how Trump’s trade negotiations with China are affecting investment and business. Quarterly GDP for the third quarter was a miss at 0.4% based on predictions of 0.5% and Retail printed poor at 0.0% (0.3% expected) took price to 0.6145 (1.6270) momentarily. Heavy support at 0.6115 (1.6350) should protect the AUD of further losses as we head into the close of 2019.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6151 EURAUD 1.6257
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6136- 0.6192 EURAUD 1.6148- 1.6295

The Euro opened weaker Monday against the Australian Dollar (AUD) falling back to recent support at 0.6170 (1.6215) giving back last week’s gains from 0.6130 (1.6315) Risk sentiment has supported the Aussie with positive Chinese Manufacturing and comments from trump. Monday’s Aussie Building Approvals printed down on expectations and Spanish manufacturing was good, however risk usually wins over. The US is considering higher tariffs on the EU after a (WTO) World Trade Organisation ruling. The WTO found that the EU launch aid to Airbus caused adverse effects which in turn cost US firms significant lost profit. With this in mind, this could weigh on the EUR for a while. This week we have a slew of key releases with RBA cash rate today followed by quarterly GDP, Retail Sales and Trade Balance. It would take a significant surprise to upcoming data to shift price away from the recent range band.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6158 (1.6239)
Resistance: 0.6170 (1.6320)
Support: 0.6130 (1.6200)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6130-0.6168 (0.6212-1.6314)

The Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to trade sideways into Friday with a lack of meaningful data altering price significantly. The pair started the week at 0.6165 (1.6217) and trades around 0.6150 (1.6260) into Friday. Private Capital Expenditure q/q showed a decline of 0.6% for the September quarter, this was lower than the June quarter figures of 0.8% and highlights a weakening business sector. Next week calendar is huge which includes the RBA cash rate, Retail Sales and Building Approvals. The consolidation lane should continue into next week with price keeping within tight ranges around 0.6150 (1.6250)

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6143 EURAUD 1.6278
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6139- 0.6168 EURAUD 1.6211- 1.6287

Dismal Eurozone readings published late in the week hurt the Euro (EUR) falling back to 0.6160 (1.6230) at the weekly close against the Australian Dollar (AUD). Manufacturing and Services prints were the centre of attention late Friday with figures coming in much lighter than predicted. We also had Lagarde talking “we will continuously monitor the side effects of policies and policy would undergo a strategic review in the near future.” The EUR has regained some of last week’s losses Tuesday trading back at 0.6150 (1.6250) as we look towards Australian Private Capital Expenditure q/q later in the week for further movement.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6153 (1.6252)
Resistance: 0.6170 (1.6320)
Support: 0.6130 (1.6200)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6126-0.6171 (1.6204-1.6323)

The Euro (EUR) surged forth this week continuing last week’s rally against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.6115 (1.6350). Its holding onto these gains into Friday trading just off this mark at 0.6135 (1.6295) The ECB and RBA were both on the wires this week, the ECB saying the low interest rates are supporting the overall economy having the effect of encouraging risk which could create financial instability. While RBA’s Lowe said he was prepared to ease policy if needed. French and German Services and Manufacturing Index reports are published overnight. It’s hard to see the Euro reversing recent moves.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6134 EURAUD 1.6302
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6126- 0.6171 EURAUD 1.6204- 1.6322

The Euro (EUR) continued its run higher from the recent low of 1.5975 (0.6260) last week into Tuesday against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 1.6260 (0.6150) as poor jobs data weighs on the AUD. News of Germany sidestepping a recession with recent GDP figures of 0.1% have buoyed the Euro as well as September trade data which came in larger than expected with a surplus of 5.2% compared to September 2018. This week’s French and German (PMI) Producer Managers Index holds focus. The EUR may have the edge on the kiwi this week with 0.6100 (1.6390) the target, making now a good time to buy EUR

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6146 (1.6270)
Resistance: 0.6210 (1.6400)
Support: 0.6100 (1.6100)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6147-0.6229 (1.6055-1.6268)

The Euro continued its early week extension over the Australian Dollar (AUD) into Wednesday’s Aussie job figures climbing to 0.6155 (1.6250) on poor data. Australian unemployment rose to 5.3% from 5.2% and fulltime and part time employment contracted to -19.000. Also of note German economic sentiment posted a better than expected reading with investor mood towards the outlook improving. Following this was German preliminary 3rd quarter GBP which has printed at 0.1% instead of -0.1% analysts were predicting. This news comes as a relief that Germany has avoided slipping into recession. We expect price to continue towards the 0.6105 (1.6380) daily close of mid-October.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6156 EURAUD 1.6244
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6150- 0.6229 EURAUD 1.6054- 1.6259

The Euro (EUR) has continued its run higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.6200 (1.6120) Monday. The Aussie appears sensitive to trade developments with US officials confirming they would not be removing current tariffs to Chinese products as Chinese news agencies reported. German GDP (prelim) publishes Thursday and is expected to show a declining economy with negative growth of -0.1%, all eyes will be on the release to see if Germany slips into recession. We believe the downside will be limited in the cross this week with Australian jobs numbers expected to print well. We could see price travel back towards the eight week high of 0.6260 (1.5980)

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6206 (1.6113)
Resistance: 0.6250 (1.6170)
Support: 1.6210 (1.6000)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6086-0.6198 (1.5977-1.6132)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) improved on its three week rally against the Euro (EUR) climbing to 0.6260 (1.5980). The Reserve Bank of Australia left the official cash rate unchanged Tuesday at the record low of 0.75% hinting at no further easing bias on the radar. With recent unemployment shifting lower and inflation ticking higher to 1.7% for the September quarter along with a rebound in housing data the RBA felt comfortable with leaving the rate as it is. Not only did the RBA send the AUD higher but so did the Australian Trade Balance after it released at 7.1B from 5.1B expected widening the trade surplus. Christine Lagarde gave her first speech as the President of the European Union this week with nothing coming from it regarding any such shifts to monetary policy. Next week’s Aussie jobs data is focus.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6232 EURAUD 1.6046
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6180- 0.6259 EURAUD 1.5976- 1.6179

A quiet few days in the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair has seen little variance to price as it camps around the 0.6190 (1.6150) area. Monday’s poor Aussie Retail Sales release was mostly ignored by investors after printing at 0.2% from the 0.4% we were expecting, instead focus lies with today’s RBA cash rate announcement. A cut to 0.75% is unlikely today given recent consensus now at 25% of no further cuts before the end of the year. Further positive developments in the US/China trade news and recent RBA policy shift has buoyed the AUD. This being said we expect the AUD to spike and retest 0.6250 (1.6000) around today’s announcement at 4.30 NZT.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6188 (1.6160)
Resistance: 0.6200 (1.6400)
Support: 0.6100 (1.6120)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6160-0.6207 (1.6112-1.6235)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has drifted lower over the week against the Euro (EUR) to 0.6205 (1.6113) an October low. The incoming ECB President Lagarde said “economic growth was fragile and precarious” and hit out at Germany and the Netherlands to use their budget surpluses to find investments that could ultimately help stimulate the EU economy. She followed up by saying there’s not enough “solidarity” in the single currency. Meanwhile the German finance minister said tax revenues should remain reasonably robust, even with a slowing economy. The EUR bounced back Friday to trade back at 0.6180 (1.6175). Next week’s Australian Retail Sales and later RBA cash rate statement is the focus with no change from the 0.75% expected.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6174 EURAUD 1.6197
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6146- 0.6206 EURAUD 1.6112- 1.6270

The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades just off a four week low of 0.6170 (1.6200) at 0.6160 (1.6230) Tuesday against the Euro (EUR) in a slow start to a busy week of economic data. French PMI and Manufacturing data turned in positive results late last week, but Germany was a different story with Manufacturing stagnating in the fourth quarter with the Index registering now at alarming levels. Australian CPI q/q holds market focus this week with expectations of 0.5% growth for the third quarter a touch lower than second quarter 0.6%. Risk sentiment towards vital Brexit and China/US trade negotiations has the power to overshadow any data shifts to price, we expect the Euro to push towards the low of 0.6090 (1.6420) over the coming days.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6161 (1.6231)
Resistance: 0.6170 (1.6310)
Support: 0.6130 (1.6200)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6131-0.6170 (1.6207-1.6310)

A quiet week’s trading in the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross with a lack of tier one data through Thursday saw a lack of any direction with price reaching a high of 0.6170 (1.6200) before easing lower to 0.6135 (1.6300). In Draghi’s last ECB meeting before departing as President of the European Union he has kept monetary policy unchanged. Weakness in Eurozone growth and inflation pressures, citing Germany as a very real concern they could fall into recession were among his comments. The ECB stand ready with their September QE monetary stimulus package which should alleviate inflation pressures and easing borrowing conditions for consumers and businesses. On the data front this week French PMI and manufacturing data turned in a positive result but Germany was a different story with manufacturing in particular stagnating in the fourth quarter with the Index at alarming levels. Price for many weeks now has been camped inside the 0.6170 (1.6200) to 0.6105 (1.6380) range, it will take some chunky news for price to break through these levels.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6139 EURAUD 1.6289
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6131- 0.6170 EURAUD 1.6205- 1.6309

The Australian Dollar (AUD) firmed into Tuesday against the Euro (EUR) extending last week’s gains from the low of 0.6085 (1.6430) to 0.6160 (1.6230). Focus this week lies with the ECB rate announcement and policy statement. Outgoing ECB chief Draghi has said the central bank is ready to change policy if needed. German finance minister Scholz has been on the wires saying that Germany’s economic situation doesn’t require a rushed fiscal change, expecting growth momentum to continue into the end of the year. Thursday’s Spanish employment along with French and German Services PMI and Manufacturing results stands out and should create added volatility.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6159 (1.6236)
Resistance: 0.6170 (1.6400)
Support: 0.6100 (1.6200)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6086-0.6165 (0.6086-0.6165)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) reached 0.6085 (1.6430) midweek against the Euro (EUR) a fresh 30 August low after German economic sentiment showed an improvement for October dragging down the Aussie. Sentiment improved Thursday with the Aussie recovering nearly all the early week losses trading back to 0.6135 (1.6300) perhaps also spurred on by the prospect of a Brexit deal in the throes of being agreed before the 31 October deadline. Australian unemployment rate has fallen to 5.2% from 5.3% the first drop in seven months when it peaked at 4.9%. 14,700 new jobs were added to the economy in September propelled by mostly by full time employment. The EU economic summit started last night and could bring economic global headlines to print over the next day or so.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6136 EURAUD 1.6297
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6085- 0.6156 EURAUD 1.6242- 1.6432

The Australian Dollar was hit hard off the weekly open falling to 0.6120 (1.6350) against the Euro (EUR) before recovering towards 0.6150 (1.6270) into Tuesday trading sessions. Eurozone August Industrial Production came in at 0.4% based on expectations of a rise of 0.3% boosting the Euro. The monthly numbers have seen a bit of a rebound after July figures were poor but the underlying weakness in manufacturing activity remains weak with annual estimates continuing to undermine factory activity compared to this time last year. It’s another thin calendar for the pair this week with only German Economic sentiment and Australian Employment Tuesday holding market attention. The long term forecast is still a bearish AUD.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6140 (1.6286)
Resistance: 0.6170 (1.6370)
Support: 0.6110 (1.6200)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6109-0.6171 (1.6204-1.6368)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has underperformed against the Euro (EUR) this week on poor data and risk sentiment. Price opened around 0.6200 (1.6120) but was soon lower through Thursday to 0.6110 (1.6370) as poor Aussie Business and Consumer Confidence released lower than expectation. The RBA’s three rate cuts since May are having an impact on how the future of the Australian economy is perceived. With confidence levels as low as 2015 index levels these are concerning for growth and confidence levels heading into 2020. The Aussie remains bearish with lingering global trade tensions having continued negative impact on China/Australia dependant imports as it continues to travel slowly but surely in a downside bias within the channel going back to early 2017. Short term heavy resistance at 0.6090 (1.6400) should offer some relief for buyers of EUR.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6142 EURAUD 1.6281
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6108- 0.6165 EURAUD 1.6220- 1.6370

The Australian Dollar (AUD) started the week well on improved risk sentiment taking it higher to 0.6220 (1.6075) against the Euro before things changed. The RBA cut their overnight cash rate on Tuesday from 1.0% to 0.75% in efforts to boost economic growth with Lowe saying he needed full employment and inflation back at the target level. Price reversed sharply over the announcement dropping to 0.6110 (1.6370) a four week low. With a German bank holiday Thursday price eased back towards 0.6150 (1.6270) as we look towards today’s Australian Retail Sales for further direction. The Aussie remains bearish with lingering global trade tensions having continued negative impact on China/Australia dependant imports as it continues to travel slowly but surely in a downside bias within the channel going back to early 2017.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6146 EURAUD 1.6270
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6109- 0.6221 EURAUD 1.6073- 1.6368

The Australian Dollar (AUD) drifted lower to close the week at 0.6180 (1.6180) against the Euro (EUR). Today’s Australian Building Approvals more than likely won’t offer any relief for the AUD prior to the 5.30 NZT, RBA rate decision. Expectations are for a cut of 25 basis points to 0.75% which would make it three cuts in five months. There is no data on the calendar this week for the Eurozone. We expect recent price momentum to retest last week’s low of 0.6135 (1.6300).

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6195 (1.6142)
Resistance: 0.6240 (1.6300)
Support: 0.6135 (1.6020)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6141-0.6203 (1.6120-1.6283)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) tapered off over the week against the Euro (EUR) with price drifting to 0.6190 (1.6150) with little economic data available. Earlier in the week it was a sea of red ink with French and German Manufacturing figures and Services PMI figures printing weaker than expected as well as the Eurozone PMI for September releasing at 45.6, a six year low. Next week’s RBA cash rate announcement and policy statement has market attention with Lowe this week saying the economy was as a “gentle turning point”. His view is not particularly shared by the Australian Banks with most pricing in a 25 point cut to 0.75% with an 80% probability. Long term on the chart the cross is still bearish with the top of the band of 0.6290 (1.5900) offering resistance to the top side. We expect further downside in the Aussie towards the end of the year.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6189 EURAUD 1.6157
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6141- 0.6194 EURAUD 1.6143- 1.6283

The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded higher off the weekly open of 0.6150 (1.6270) to 0.6170 (1.6200) into Tuesday against the Euro (EUR) as risk market improved. It was a sea of red Monday with French and German Manufacturing figures and Services PMI figures printing weaker than expected as well as the Eurozone PMI for September releasing at 45.6 a six year low. Also putting the Euro on the back foot was Draghi speaking in Brussels where he admitted that the Eurozone is unlikely to recover in the medium term. RBA Governor Lowe speaks tonight as he comes under increasing pressure to cut rates below 1.0%. With a number of market players calling for a cut at next week’s cash rate announcement his words could be interesting. We expect the EUR to build pressure and possibly retest support at 0.6100 (1.6400)

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6162 (1.6228)
Resistance: 0.6245 (1.6300)
Support: 0.6135 (1.6015)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5996-0.6287 (1.5906-1.6677)

Except for some early week pressures on the Euro (EUR) the currency has risen further against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.6140 (1.6290) on broad risk sentiment. Australian jobs data released higher than expectations with an additional 22,000 people being added to the workforce, but it was the unemployment rate rising to 5.3% from 5.2% which pulled the Aussie lower into Friday. The Aussie was already under pressure from the Fed’s hawkish cut but extending declines further on a lack of positive sentiment. Next week’s German and French manufacturing and Services PMI is the focus. On the downside 0.6100 (1.6400) offers decent support for the Aussie.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6137 EURAUD 1.6294
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6134- 0.6244 EURAUD 1.6015- 1.6300

After the ECB confirmed their new stimulus measures to boost the eurozone by restarting fresh quantitative easing, this has been a source of strength for the EUR (EURO) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) clawing back losses to trade at 0.6210 (1.6100) at the weekly close. Several ECB members have voiced their displeasure of the QE package saying it’s a mistake. Hopes for fiscal stimulus out of Germany is also favouring the EUR currently. Looking ahead Australian employment figures release Thursday and should boost the AUD with a good result. Price looks to retest key support at 0.6290 (1.5900) based on recent action.

Exchange Rate
Current Level:0.6224 (1.6066)
Resistance: 0.6270 (1.6240)
Support: 0.6160 (1.5940)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6185-0.6287 (1.5906-1.6167)

After three weeks of declines for the Euro (EUR), versus the Australian Dollar (AUD) to fresh lows of 0.6280 (1.5920) the EUR has bounced back to 0.6205 (1.6115) over the ECB monetary policy announcement last night. As expected, the ECB unveiled new stimulus measures to boost the eurozone including cutting the deposit rate from -0.4% to -0.5%. The main interest rate remains at zero. The meeting confirmed the restart of fresh quantitative easing in the form of 20B EUR every month starting on the 1st of November 2019. This move comes as a direct reflection on the status of not only poor economic health in the Eurozone but global uncertainty. Further momentum extending to 0.6120 (1.6350) will strengthen the case for further downside bias.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6204 EURAUD 1.6118
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6200- 0.6287 EURAUD 1.5904- 1.6128

The Euro (EUR) has retreated eight days straight against a buoyant Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.6215 (1.6090) Tuesday. This comes after five weeks of declines for the Aussie on the back of improved risk sentiment. Last week’s RBA announcement left rates unchanged at 1.0% but suggested a cut may be required data dependant- markets viewed the statement as less dovish which improved the AUD. Thursday’s ECB rate announcement and monetary statement holds main focus this week with speculation around how much the new QE program will be. Resistance is seen around 0.6290 (1.5900) with reasonable chances of a retest at this level over the week.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6211 (1.6100)
Resistance: 0.6290 (1.6415)
Support: 0.6090 (1.5900)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6116-0.6231 (1.7794-1.8110)

After five months of declines in the Australian Dollar (AUD) versus the Euro (EUR) we should see the week close higher with the Aussie reversing some of these losses. Currently we see the cross trade around 0.6175 (1.6190) mark based on improvement in risk appetite and AUD data impressing over the week. The RBA left rates unchanged at 1.0% but suggested a cut may be required data dependant- markets viewed the statement as less dovish which improved the AUD.GBP printed back on expectations and Trade Balance was slightly above the 7.2B surplus predicted. Next week we have the ECB cash rate and monetary policy statement. 80% of economists are expecting an easing package to be introduced and further quantitative easing to start in October. A cut to -0.50% is priced in as well. The ECB haven’t got much choice as the inflation isn’t likely to pick up any time soon, especially given the state of the Eurozone and more importantly the world economic outlook. We suggest a retest of 1.6320 in the coming weeks as global risks are skewed to the downside.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6172 EURAUD 1.6202
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6116- 0.6189 EURAUD 1.61570- 1.6350

After nearly three months of downtrends in the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) cross these moves are looking exhausted. Price today is trading around 0.61130 (1.6320) after the Aussie recovered Friday from 0.6080 (1.6450) mainly due to poor building approvals for July at -9.7% from the 0.0% expected took the Aussie lower, this was after poor construction work done figures earlier in the week. What’s interesting Australian House prices look to have bottomed with figures showing a pick up of 0.8% in August as buyers came back into the market. The Euro calendar is bare this week with the cross to get its shifts from today’s RBA cash rate announcement and monetary statement. Later also quarterly GDP and Thursday’s Trade Balance may bring about decent price swings. Resistance sits at 0.6130 (1.6310)

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6125 (1.6326)
Resistance: 0.6135 (1.6600)
Support: 0.6020 (1.6300)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6061-0.6136 (1.6298-1.6500)

Despite poor Australian economic data this week the Aussie has feared reasonably well against the Euro (EUR) holding up around the 0.6085 (1.6430) area. Construction figures followed by CAPEX results deteriorated. Construction in Australia has worsened with a contraction over the second quarter falling by 3.8%. Building Approvals release today and may reflect further building activity declines. Next week is a busy week of data with Australian Retail Sales the RBA cash rate and key second quarter GDP. There are no expectations of the RBA to cut rates lower than the current 1.0% for now until November.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6072 EURAUD 1.6469
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.5995- 0.6112 EURAUD 1.6360- 1.6678

The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded sharply lower off the weekly open against the Euro (EUR) to 0.5995 (1.6680) before bouncing higher through Tuesday back to 0.6105 (1.6380) as risk sentiment improved. With the ECB looking to increase easing we have seen windows of EUR weakness over the past four weeks or so. As long as risk flows support the AUD we should see price move towards 0.6200 (1.6120) over the coming few weeks.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6099 (1.6395)
Resistance: 0.6125 (1.6600)
Support: 0.6025 (1.6330)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5996-0.6132 (1.6309-1.6678)

In line with other crosses the Australian dollar (AUD) has also slid lower against the Euro (EUR), currently trading at 0.6098 (1.6400) after a high of 0.6132 earlier in the week. With the ECB set to ramp up easing measures the race is on as to who jumps first the ECB or RBA. We look for AUD weakness on this cross.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6094 EURAUD 1.64085
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6090 – 0.6132 EURAUD 1.6309 – 1.6420

Following on from talk of a possible third quarter Germany recession after figures posted showed a decline in GDP in the second quarter markets have consolidated around 0.6110 (1.6370) with the Australian Dollar (AUD) looking stable post last week’s employment figures. Aussie wage price inflation improved to 0.6% from 0.5% for the quarter to June with an increase to the number of new people employed which rose from a flat 500 in June to 41,000 in July after an expected 15,000 was predicted. The unemployment rate stayed at 5.2% since rising in March from 5.0%. Today’s 1.30 NZT RBA minutes holds market focus with investors saying we won’t get much of a surprise to recent easing bias with the central bank remaining in monitoring status for now. With recent deterioration in the trade was we expect more of the same comments.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6096 (1.6404)
Resistance: 0.6160 (1.6600)
Support: 0.6020 (1.6240)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6018-0.6132 (1.6309-1.6618)

The Euro (EUR) took on water Wednesday after a round of soft data dropping lower to 0.6105 (1.6380) after rallying earlier in the week to 0.6020 (1.6620) against the Australian Dollar (AUD). A contraction in second quarter GDP printed at -0.1% and grew by 0.4% compared to the same quarter in 2018. The figures follow an upside surprise of 0.4% in the first quarter of 2019 showing the economy is still growing over the first half of the year- Just. These weak figures could suggest we may see a contraction in the third quarter which would put Germany in a recession. Aussie wage price inflation improved to 0.6% from 0.5% for the quarter to June with an increase to the number of new people employed which rose from a flat 500 in June to 41,000 in July after an expected 15,000 was predicted. The unemployment rate stayed at 5.2% since rising in March from 5.0%. UK Retail Sales rose unexpectedly to 0.2% based on predictions of -0.3% highlighting consumers were still spending.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6105 EURAUD 1.6380
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6016- 0.6113 EURAUD 1.6356- 1.6622

The Australian Dollar (AUD) got a little relief late in the week against the Euro (EUR) returning to 0.6090 (1.6410) from 0.5960 (1.6780) but as the week came to a close the Aussie was back under pressure as risk based assets deteriorated. NAB Business Confidence and Westpac Consumer Sentiment along with Australian wage data and unemployment will be the focus on the economic docket this week. If risk off markets continue into Friday we could see last week’s low broken and levels somewhere mid 0.59’s develop.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6028 (1.6590)
Resistance: 0.6100 (1.6970)
Support: 0.5960 (1.6400)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5957-0.6095 (1.6406-1.6786)

The Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) pair still sits below pivotal support at a multiyear low Friday of 0.6065 (1.6485). Wednesday’s RBNZ cash rate cut from 1.5% to 1.0% announcement saw the Aussie dive lower in sympathy to 0.5955 (1.6790) the first time in many years we have seen a price below 0.6000 (1.6665). The RBA announced Tuesday they were keeping the benchmark cash rate at 1.0% with the global outlook remaining questionable and inflation expectations low. This had very little impact on the Aussie dollar movement after the release. An easing bias still remains for the RBA with expectations of further cuts expected based on a “if needed” scenario. Eurozone data is thin this week and has generally been well supported in line with an overall risk off tone.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6085 EURAUD 1.6433
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.5957- 0.6121 EURAUD 1.6335- 1.6785

The Australian Dollar (AUD) passed 0.6060 (1.6500) heavy support Monday against the Euro (EUR) to enter into multiyear low territory currently trading at 0.6035 (1.6570). In years around currencies I can’t remember ever seeing the AUDEUR trade into the 0.50’s. Today’s RBA interest rate decision holds huge market focus with back to back cuts recently we are not expecting the RBA to go lower on this occasion. Special interest around how governor Lowe perceives the local economy and how future data may influence further easing later in the year to be key. There is no press conference after the meeting, which is usually a sign that a no change is in store. Eurozone have nothing of note on the calendar this week and could be well supported in line with a deteriorated risk tone.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6034 (1.6572)
Resistance: 0.6150 (1.7000)
Support: 0.6000 (1.6260)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6015-0.6208 (1.6107-1.6624)

Last week’s sharp U turn in price from 0.6290 (1.5900) levels in the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair to 0.6130 (1.6310) has been a remarkable shift. Over Thursday’s European trading session price has come from 0.6200 (1.6130). Positive sentiment towards the EUR from last week’s ECB no change to monetary policy continues to support the EUR this week. GDP in the eurozone continues to grow but not fast enough to meet the ECB’s target of around 1.0% with the ECB expected to ease policy at the September meeting. Australian CPI q/q surprised markets by releasing at 0.6% taking y/y CPI to 1.6% versus the previous 1.5% but we still believe the RBA will cut rates to 0.75% at next week’s RBA meeting. Support of 0.6080 (1.6450) is nearing closer with the last time price was trading at this level was August 2015.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6137 EURAUD 1.6294
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6129-0.6208 EURAUD 1.6106- 1.6314

Last week’s price reversal from the high of 0.6290 (1.5900) has continued into Monday with the Euro (EUR) making all the play against the Australian Dollar (AUD) pushing price lower to 0.6190 (1.6150). No cut to the fragile EU situation last week sent buyers back into the EUR with Draghi stopping short of saying rates would drop but he was clearly preparing markets for things to come, possibly changes in the next meeting in September. Draghi said a significant amount of stimulus was needed to make sure the financial environment supports growth in the Eurozone. Aussie quarterly CPI and EU Flash CPI y/y are the focus this week on the calendar and print tomorrow. Short term support for the AUD is 0.6160 (1.6230)

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6195 (1.6142)
Resistance: 0.6290 (1.6230)
Support: 0.6160 (1.5900)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6190-0.6292 (1.5893-1.6154)

The Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) pair swung wildly during the European trading session overnight with the ECB announcement interest rates would remain at record lows for now or at least until early 2020. Price initially went to 0.6280 (1.5920) then a “no-cut” to rates sent positivity through markets sending the EUR to 0.6215 (1.6090) Draghi stopped short of saying rates would drop but he was clearly preparing markets for things to come possibly changes in the next meeting in September. Draghi said a significant amount of stimulus was needed to make sure the financial environment supports growth in the Eurozone. He went on to say they were researching possibilities of further QE with TLTROs in the picture.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6226 EURAUD 1.6061
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6215- 0.6292 EURAUD 1.5892- 1.6090

Gains in this pair have stalled in recent days, with the Australian dollar (AUD) twice failing to overcome resistance around the 0.6300 area vs the Euro (EUR). This may well be the precursor to a corrective pullback that would target initial support around 0.6235. If we do get a break above 0.6300 then the market would target 0.6350, but it is looking like upside momentum is waning somewhat and at this stage we’re favoring a test of downside support, before the pair attempts another leg higher. The EUR itself has been hampered recently by speculation about potential new stimulus measures to be announced at this week’s ECB meeting. That meeting will be the primary focus for the market and it will drive the pair over the latter stage of this week. Ahead of that meeting we do have a raft of PMI’s from Europe to digest along with a speech from RBA Gov Lowe.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6274 (1.5938)
Resistance: 0.6350 (1.6038)
Support: 0.6235 (1.5748)
Last Weeks range: 0.5237-0.6291 (1.5894-1.6034)

The AUDEUR rally that started back in late June has continued this week with the pair making fresh cycle highs at 0.6280 in the past 12 hours. The AUD breathed a sigh of relief after yesterday Australian employment data suggested the RBA can take its time in deciding when to cut interest rates again. The gain of 21k full time jobs, and the stable unemployment rate, make it unlikely the RBA will deliver a third successive interest rate cut at their next meeting. There is some resistance around the 0.6300 area, and then again at 0.6350. On the downside initial support is seen at 0.6235. RBA Gov Lowe speaks next week, while from Europe we get manufacturing and service PMI’s along with the European Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Statement.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6273 EURAUD 1.5941
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6194 – 0.6280 EURAUD 1.5923- 1.6144

Relentless Australian dollar (AUD) gains have been the theme of the past week and against the Euro (EUR) there has been no exception. The pair briefly traded to a low of 0.6161 mid last week, but the bullish AUD move since then has seen an overnight high of 0.6254 trade. The trigger for these AUD gains was a dovish testimony from US Fed Chair Powell, but they have also been helped by solid Chinese activity data released yesterday. Momentum is certainly in the Aussie’s favor at the moment and this move may well have further to run. The market will pay close attention to today’s RBA minutes as well as Thursday’s release of Australian employment data.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6250 (1.6000)
Resistance: 0.6375 (1.6194)
Support: 0.6175 (1.5687)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6161-0.6254 (1.5990-1.6230)

The Australian dollar (AUD) has lost ground to the Euro (EUR) this week, suffering after some disappointing local consumer sentiment and business confidence data. The pair has manged to stage something of a recovery off the weeks low, at 0.6161, to currently trade at 0.6199, but near term direction is far from certain. Longer term we suspect strong support around 0.6100 should to put a floor under the pair and we suspect further test toward 0.6250 will likely be seen over the coming week or two.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6197 EURAUD 1.6137
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6161 – 0.6236 EURAUD 1.6036 – 1.6230

The Australian dollar (AUD) has been gaining on the Euro (EUR) since late June, and these gains peaked at 0.6231 in the second half of last week. Since then we have seen the pair consolidate just below that high as the market awaits the next move. We increasingly believe that move will be another leg higher for the AUDEUR with a medium term target of 0.6360. Locally, we have Australian Business Confidence and Consumer Sentiment to digest of the coming days. Support is seen coming in around 0.6180 and that should contain any potential periods of weakness in the near term.

Exchange Rate
Current LeveL: 0.6214 (1.6092)
Resistance: 0.6240 (1.6181)
Support: 0.6180 (1.6026)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6160-0.6240 (1.6025-1.6235)

The Australian Dollar has extended last week’s gains against the Euro (EUR) from the low of 0.6090 (1.6415) into Friday clocking 0.6225 (1.6060) The RBA cut their benchmark cash rate from 1.25% to 1.0% Wednesday for the second straight month. The first time back to back cuts have happened in seven years as the RBA tries to front foot ongoing slowing growth. The sole policy of every central bank in the world is asset price inflation by providing cheap money to stimulate growth and inflation. Interestingly the statement appeared less dovish than markets felt and strangely put the AUD back on the road north. Retail Sales and Australian Trade Balance have come in above expectations helping to boost the AUD. We see very little on the economic docket next week for the pair.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6224 EURAUD 1.6066
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6150- 0.6240 EURAUD 1.6024- 1.6258

The Australian Dollar (AUD) turned lower off the weekly open to 0.6150 (1.6250) after dominating the Euro (EUR) last week. Posting an earlier three week high of 0.6190 (1.6150) the Aussie lost steam after risk markets lost bite. The ceasefire between the US and China has relaxed markets for now but we don’t believe this will continue with tensions to increase. Eurozone Core inflation y/y came in on expectations of 1.2% for June showing a stable release based on May’s 0.8%, this was the catalyst for the Euro to recoup some lost ground. Attention now is with the 4.30pm NZT RBA statement and cash rate release. Market forecasters remain split as to a cut today or if they will leave the benchmark rate in place until August. Those that believe a cut is in store today should consider buying EUR ahead of a possible dip in the currency back to 0.6100 (1.6395) Australian Building Approvals and later Retail Sales prints could reflect moderate shifts to price.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6176 (1.6191)
Resistance: 0.6200 (1.6270)
Support: 0.6150 (1.6140)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6098-0.6194 (1.6145-1.6400)

Just when we thought price in the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) pair would continue to drop through 0.6075 (1.6460) and break new ground we have seen fresh support for the Aussie as it peeled back losses from the past 3 weeks to 0.6165 (1.6220). ECB’s Mario Draghi recent speech reconfirmed his dovishness with the next wave of cuts and measures to take place as early as July. His economic roundup was unmistakably downbeat. German economic sentiment decreased sharply for June as the economic sentiment continues to worsen in line with the global economy. RBA’s Lowe spoke Monday saying risks to the global economy are tilted to the downside, while the global economy has slowed the outlook still remains reasonable. With climbing commodity prices and equities, risk related currencies have benefited over the week but this could all change once the G20 meeting starts tonight in Osaka with several key meetings taking place to dent sentiment.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6159 EURAUD 1.6236
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6093- 0.6166 EURAUD 1.6217- 1.6412

The Euro (EUR) has managed to find a reasonable amount of support over the past two to three weeks against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as it trades at 0.6110 (1.6370). ECB’s Mario Draghi recent speech reconfirmed his dovishness with the next wave of cuts and measures to take place as early as July. His economic roundup was unmistakably downbeat. German economic sentiment decreased sharply for June as the economic sentiment continues to worsen in line with the global economy. RBA’s Lowe spoke Monday saying risks to the global economy are tilted to the downside, while the global economy has slowed the outlook still remains reasonable. Certainly, with recent climbing commodity prices such as iron Ore trading at multi month highs this has fundamentally held up the Aussie from dropping to much dire levels. The G20 meeting in Osaka starting Thursday should give a fair dose of volatility.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6105 (1.6380)
Resistance: 0.6150 (1.6450)
Support: 0.6080 (1.6260)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6080-0.6148 (1.6265-1.6448)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded a historical low of 0.6080 (1.6450) against the Euro (EUR) early week before staging a decent come back reversal retracing to 0.6145 (1.6270) ECB’s Mario Draghi speech midweek reconfirmed his dovishness with the next wave of cuts and measures to take place as early as July. His economic roundup was unmistakably downbeat. German economic sentiment decreased sharply for June as the economic sentiment continues to worsen in line with the global economy. Aussie Dollar weakness is still in play with reasonable chances we may retest the prior low of 0.6080 (1.6450). As we said earlier in the week- sellers of EUR shouldn’t get to greedy as these current levels represent incredible conversion back to AUD opportunities.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6130 EURAUD 1.6313
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6080- 0.6148 EURAUD 1.6264- 1.6447

After falling back to 0.6130 (1.6315) briefly at the weekly close against the Australian Dollar (AUD), the Euro (EUR) has regained its earlier momentum. Pushing into unchartered territory and breaking through massive support at 0.6115 (1.6350) the EUR has gone on to post 0.6105 (1.6380) an August 2015 low. Any downward bias looks slim with a lower low looking more compelling as we look towards the RBA minutes this afternoon. Lowe’s comments later in the week when he speaks on “Labor Markets and Spare Capacity” will impact ahead of key French and German PMI figures. Sellers of EUR shouldn’t get to greedy as these current levels represent incredible conversion back to AUD opportunities.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6108 (1.6372)
Resistance: 0.6135 (1.6400)
Support: 0.6100 (1.6300)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6102-0.6157 (1.6241-1.6387)

The Euro (EUR) extended gains over the Australian Dollar (AUD) through Thursday to reach a level of 0.6110 (1.6360). Australian unemployment rose to 5.2% from 5.1% with the change in workforce numbers increasing to 42,000 ahead of the predicted 16,000. The problem though was most (39,000) fall under the part time category distorting the numbers. Markets focused on the rise to unemployment which has sent the Aussie lower. The question is are the numbers good enough for the RBA to halt a rate cut in July or will they wait until August? We are expecting a downward forecast to GDP as well which should keep the Aussie under the pump. Friday’s price retraced back to 0.6135 (1.6300) more than likely on profit taking.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6122 EURAUD 1.6334
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6112- 0.6194 EURAUD 1.6144- 1.6361

After a choppy week in the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) pair hovering around the 0.6200 (1.6120) area the Euro has made a push for new territory off Monday’s open. Currently trading at pivotal support of 0.6150 (1.6250) a yearly low, a break lower looks compelling given the recent lack of support for the Aussie. Holidays in Australia, France and Germany yesterday saw thin market trading in the cross and higher volatility develop. A break below 0.6135 (1.6300) would confirm a fresh leg of downside momentum if data doesn’t impress this week for the AUD. NAB Business Confidence today should give us a better look followed by Thursday’s jobs figures.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6151 (1.6257)
Resistance: 0.6225 (1.6300)
Support: 0.6135 (1.6070)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6147-0.6231 (1.6050-1.6267)

This cross has remained relatively steady this week , albeit with a gradual AUD weakness…opened the week at 0.6225 and drifted lower to around 0.6189 but has staged a mild recovery on weaker EUR data to 0.6205. Most of the AUD negative news is now priced into this cross and any surprise from the ECB announcement tonight is likely to see this cross pressure the EUR back to the 0.6225 level and above. Continuing solid iron ore prices should hold any AUD retreat at the 0.6150 support level.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6203 EURAUD 1.6121
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6188- 0.6224 EURAUD 1.6067- 1.6159

Over the past week, the Australian dollar has started to regain some of the ground lost to the Euro (EUR) since mid-April. While we don’t discount further potential dips in the pair, it does look like the broader AUDEUR down trend, that’s been in place for nearly six weeks, has run out of steam. The Australian Dollar (AUD) still must negotiate its way through next week’s RBA interest rate meeting, and the almost certain cut in interest rates, but that’s is now largely priced into the market, so it shouldn’t cause the AUD to fall out of bed at all. We would suggest any further dips toward support around 0.6150 are a good opportunity for clients looking to convert EUR to AUD.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6210 EURAUD 1.6103
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6177- 0.6219 EURAUD 1.6078- 1.6187

The Euro (EUR) has been rather steady after the European Election results pushing ever so slightly higher against the Australian Dollar over the course of last week’s trading. RBA’s Lowe finally admitted the economy was running as well as predicted especially with a drop in wage numbers and inflationary pressures on the slide. The RBA is expected to cut the cash rate at their 4th June meeting with a possible two further cuts in 2019. The monetary statement will give us more clues to direction in the pair over the rest of the year. Since late April the EUR has had an edge over the depleted Aussie, we are currently trading at 0.6185 (1.6170) just 43 points off the yearly open at 0.6142 (1.6280).

Exchange Rate
Current Level:0.6187 (1.6163)
Resistance: 0.6210 (1.6260)
Support: 0.6150 (1.6100)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6153-0.6213 (1.6094-1.6251)

The gapping to 0.6210 (1.6100) on the weekly open the Euro (EUR) has recovered to trade back around 0.6170 (1.6200) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as it eyes last week’s low of 0.6150 (1.6260). Australian Construction numbers fall by 2.4% for the March quarter after expectations of 0.1% showed total construction was well down. This weighed on the Aussie along with the RBA minutes Tuesday reflected weak inflationary pressures, the RBA finally realising after poor recent employment data the economy is slowing. This in turn should see a cut to the cash rate at the June 4 meeting with possibly another cut to follow later in the year. The EU elections over the weekend could throw up a few surprises. Britons have been voting which was never expected to happen as they were supposed to be gone by now. With the Aussie underperforming we see a retest of the yearly low of 0.6110 (1.6360) in sight.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6156 EURAUD 1.6244
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6153- 0.6212 EURAUD 1.6096- 1.6251

The AUD has gapped higher on this cross opening the week at 0.6179 , tracked all the way up to 0.6213 before settling back around the 0.6195/0.6200 level on the risk-off tone and jitters ahead of the RBA meeting minutes and RBA Governor Lowe speech later today …with European elections to be held over the next few days we remain mildly AUD positive on this cross but any advance beyond 0.6220 is likely to be weakened by the Aussie rate cut concerns.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6196 (1.6140)
Resistance: 0.6210 (1.6260)
Support: 0.6150 (1.6100)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6150-0.6240 (1.6027-1.6260)

The weaker AUD tone has been seen on this cross as even with the EUR softening against the USD the AUD has not held any ground on this cross as concerns about an RBA rate cut , weaker data and election jitters have weighed on the EUR/AUD cross…now at 0.6169 after starting the week at the 0.6230 level next support is around the 0.6130 mark which could come under test next week if the risk-off tone persists….an overall majority for either party (unlikely) in the election result should be AUD supportive.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6166 EURAUD 1.6217
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6153 – 0.6248 EURAUD 1.6005 – 1.6252

Punching through the previous yearly low of 0.6190 (1.6150) this morning against the Euro (EUR) the currency continues to build against a weakened Australian Dollar (AUD). RBA Minutes late last week reiterated the dovish forecast with slower economic growth and inflation to reach the bottom of its band. Unemployment is still propping up any hope left of stability, wage data Thursday will most certainly give us more clues ahead of this weekend’s Australian Elections. Sellers of EUR should be eyeing current prices to sell EUR back into AUD as these levels represent extremely good selling.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6190 (1.6155)
Resistance: 0.6225 (1.6190)
Support: 0.6175 (1.6060)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6178-0.6287 (1.5905-1.6187)

The RBA has left the cash rate unchanged at a record low of 1.5% in what was said to be a neutral statement by governor Lowe. Global outlook remains reasonable with a downside bias. The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded higher off the release to 1.5920 but was met with a fresh wave of risk off sentiment in the trade was between the US and China. Price retraced through the weekly open to reach 0.6200 (1.6120). The yearly low of 0.6190 (1.6150) is now in range with current price showing attractive to sellers of EUR.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6238 EURAUD 1.6030
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6203- 0.6273 EURAUD 1.5940- 1.6120

Coming off the high of 0.6377 (1.5680) mid-April the Australian Dollar (AUD) has depreciated three weeks running against the Euro (EUR) to trade at 0.6245 (1.6020) Tuesday. GDP q/q out of Spain and CPI m/m from Germany along with Eurozone CPI y/y boosted the EUR last week with price edging closer the yearly low of 0.6190 (1.6150). RBA today at 4.30pm NZT should be a cracker with investors spit as to a cut to 1.25%. We suspect the RBA will play it safe and leave the rate unchanged until later this year, reiterating a “wait and see” style approach.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6242 (1.6020)
Resistance: 0.6270 (1.6070)
Support: 0.6225 (1.5950)
Last Weeks Range:0.6225-0.6318 (1.5828-1.6063)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has reversed all of last week’s gains trading back to 0.6260 (1.5970) against the preferred Euro (EUR) the AUD underperforming across all major crosses this week. German IFO business sentiment came in weaker than expected denting moral in April showing that Europe’s largest economy is losing momentum. IFO president Clemens said “the German economy continues to lose steam” Spanish Flash GDP said otherwise surprising markets when it printed at 0.7% from 0.6% expected and German prelim m/m CPI also released well at 1.0% from 0.5% markets had forecast. Australian Building approvals prints this afternoon and based on the result may give us a clue as to the mood of the RBA for next week’s Cash rate announcement on Tuesday. The probability of a cut is poised at 50/50 at the moment. Price sits just shy of the six week low of 0.6252 (1.5993) and looks to retest.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6258 EURAUD 1.5979
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6253- 0.6327 EURAUD 1.5805- 1.5991

The Euro (EUR) outperformed the Australian Dollar (AUD) for most of the week reaching a low of 0.6265 (1.5960) with quarterly inflation disappointing at 0.0% based on expectations of 0.2% growth weakening the AUD across the board. Rising concerns over the European growth knocked the EUR late in the week with equity markets in Europe falling. The EUR gave back early gains travelling back to 0.6320 (1.5840). Germany has been the stand out performer in the EU block of late but with Germany’s benchmark 10 year government bond yield going below zero the day after disappointing German IFO sentiment survey, this brings a new set of worry to the region. Wednesday market liquidity will be affected with the French, Germany and Italian’s all taking a day off for Labour day.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6299 (1.5875)
Resistance: 0.6310 (1.5950)
Support: 0.6270 (1.5850)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6266-0.6341 (1.5770-1.5958)

The Euro (EUR) has outperformed the Australian dollar (AUD) over the past week, driving the AUD/EUR cross to a low last night of 0.6318. The pair is now approaching a key area of support just above 0.6300 and reaction here will be interesting. Today’s Australian inflation data may well dictate whether that support holds, or whether it gives way. A soft inflation result is likely to see the AUD under renewed pressure. There are however broad concerns about European growth and recent data has done little to allay those. It seems likely that the Euro itself could easily see periods of increased selling pressure over the coming weeks.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6322 (1.5818)
Resistance: 0.6350 (1.6000)
Support: 0.6250 (1.5748)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6318-0.6372 (1.5694-1.5828)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) immediately tracked lower off the weekly open to 0.6320 (1.5830) against the Euro (EUR) but has reversed losses Wednesday after support for the Euro diminished as risk tone shifted supporting commodity currencies. Price sits currently at 0.6360 (1.5720) which is 5 clicks away from the yearly high. Thursday’s Aussie employment data holds the attention of investors tomorrow, the RBA are hoping for a release around a 15,000 increase to the workforce. German manufacturing is late Thursday and should reflect a stable sector based on previous supported data.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6346 (1.5758)
Resistance: 0.6360 (1.5840)
Support: 0.6315 (1.5720)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6308-0.6364 (1.5712-1.5852)

The Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) remains choppy with the EUR pushing the cross to 0.6310 (1.5850) early Monday. With the RBA shifting its stance to a more neutral outlook, the RBA stopped short of calling for a rate cut in the next central bank meeting and surprisingly the RBA look more balanced now than other central banks which has boosted the Aussie. Data last week in Australian was also positive, US/China trade talks have helped to support the AUD. We are picking a retest of last week’s high of 0.6365 (1.5712). Transferring your AUD into EUR provides attractive levels now with the pair trading at the top of the current band

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6322 (1.5818)
Resistance: 0.6350 (1.5900)
Support: 0.6290 (1.5750)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6298-0.6363

Worse than expected German industrial production and manufacturing data overnight hampered Euro EUR) efforts to extend past 0.6300 (1.5880) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) pushing the cross to 0.6345 (1.5760). Although the RBA statement was dovish earlier in the week (cash rate unchanged at 1.50%) Retail Sales and Trade Balance has boosted the Aussie close to the yearly high of 0.6370 (1.5700) we saw earlier in the week during choppy price action during the RBA announcement. Next week the main focus will be on the ECB refinancing rate and statement, we expect the ECB to keep with the recent dovish theme although the ECB is forecasting a recovery of sorts in the second quarter 2019. Great levels to be buying EUR with current prices where they are.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6339 EURAUD 1.5775
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6297- 0.6364 EURAUD 1.5712- 1.5879

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has continued last week’s momentum against the Euro (EUR) surging to 0.6350 (1.5750) a fresh six- week high. 0.6362 (1.5717) is the yearly high from late February as the Aussie looks poised to break this significant resistance level. We could certainly get close this week if tomorrow’s RBA is even a little positive. The RBA signalled only recently they were neutral saying a cut was as good a chance as a hike but with poor recent data (excluding employment) we could see a dovish bias with a rate cut as early as August. Weakness in Eurozone Manufacturing has taken its toll on economic weakness cementing the ECB’s dovish stance and low inflation. Buyers of EUR should consider transferring or buying EUR as we trade at the current high around 0.6350 (1.5750)

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6343 (1.5765)
Resistance: 0.6360 (1.6100)
Support: 0.6210 (1.5720)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6280-0.6351 (1.8274-1.8731)

The Euro (EUR) sank lower off the weekly open against the Australian Dollar (AUD) continuing last week’s declines to 0.6340 (1.5780) Comments made my Draghi were a far cry from the intense dovishness associated with a severe downturn saying the drivers of the domestic economy remain relatively resilient. Slower growth will clearly lead to a muted recovery to inflation than we previously expected. Next week we have the RBA cash rate announcement with no change expected from the 1.50%

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6034 EURAUD 1.6572
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6257- 0.6337 EURAUD 1.5779- 1.5982

Australian jobs numbers took the Australian Dollar (AUD) higher mid last week against the Euro (EUR) to 0.6295 (1.5885) before the Euro regained some losses with the cross closing the week at 0.6265 (1.5960). Eurozone manufacturing was a let down with France and German figures producing softer than forecast readings- the lowest since 2012 and the pressure squarely back onto the Euro. Price retraced Friday’s moves back towards the high of 0.6295 (1.5885) currently trading at 0.6285 (1.5906) at the time of writing. Both central banks speak this week otherwise a light calendar.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6289 (1.5900)
Resistance: 0.6320 (1.6070)
Support: 0.6225 (1.5820)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6220-0.6294 (1.5888-1.6076)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) lost ground earlier in the week against the Euro (EUR) to 0.6225 (1.6070) but came back strong after Australian Jobs data printed. A small number of jobs (4,600) were added to the workforce, a little light on expectations, but it was the unemployment rate markets focused on coming in at 4.9% from 5.0% which pushed investors away from the EUR with price retracing to 0.6270 (1.5950). We have French and German manufacturing numbers to release tonight. Next week’s calendar for the pair is light.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6257 EURAUD 0.6151
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6220- 0.6281 EURAUD 1.5930- 1.6077

It’s a massive week on the economic docket for the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) pair after nothing printing last week of note left the cross bouncing around 0.6265 (1.5960). RBA Monetary policy minutes from the 5th March meeting release today and should highlight the earlier spiel from governor Lowe of signs the economy is struggling but unemployment will continue to edge lower to 4.75%. We will see if this happens Thursday when the jobs data releases and the unemployment rate. Later in the week German and French manufacturing figures release. The Euro will be boosted by Brexit optimism this week if a deal can be agreed but more predominantly if Aussie jobs data comes in well we could see a retest of the 3 month high of 0.6350 (1.5740) develop.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6261 (1.5971)
Resistance: 0.6290 (1.6060)
Support:0.6230 (1.5900)
Last Weeks range: 0.6228-0.6291 (1.5895-1.6056)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) and Euro (EUR) are still bouncing around similar levels this week with the cross reaching a low of 0.6228 (1.6056) Thursday. Brexit has occupied headlines especially given we have had no significant data to report this week for the pair. Just Eurozone industrial data was solid benefiting the Euro. Inching towards the yearly low the EUR looks to have the upper hand with detrimental data printing out of Australia of late still weighing down the Aussie. Next week is a full docket of data with Australian jobs data and Euro manufacturing numbers.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6246 EURAUD 1.6010
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6227- 0.6291 EURAUD 1.5894- 1.6057

Risk sentiment improved overnight Tuesday after hopes a last minute concession on Brexit from the EU would allow the UK parliament to vote into law a EU-UK deal. The Australian Dollar (AUD) improved to 0.6285 (1.5910) against the Euro (EUR) from the open of 0.6265 (1.5950) extending last week’s gains and looks to 0.6320 (1.5820) early February resistance levels. All eyes this week will be firmly focused on a Brexit outcome which is lucky because the calendar is dry this week. Last week’s dovish ECB outlook should give the Aussie further fuel to appreciate further.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6269 (1.5951)
Resistance: 0.6290 (1.6020)
Support: 0.6240 (1.5900)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6203-0.6291 (1.5896-1.6121)

It’s been a big week for the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) pair with both central bank overnight rate announcements. Price moved lower to 0.6200 (1.6120) after the RBA left rates unchanged at 1.50% with dovish comments surrounding inflation expectations weakening the Aussie. Wednesday’s quarterly GDP was also soft at 0.2% along with Retail Sales as well. A reversal back towards 0.6270 (1.5950) took place as volatility soured after the ECB meeting. The Central Bank left rates unchanged but slashed inflation and growth forecast for 2019 and 2020 turning markets to risk averse across the board. It’s hard to know where direction is now with both Australian and EU countries really starting to struggle. Wage growth remains key for Australia.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6237    EURAUD 1.6033
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6203- 0.6276    EURAUD 1.5932- 1.6121

The Australian Dollar has surprisingly picked up a little momentum after yesterday’s terrible Building Approvals figures against the Euro (EUR) trading off the low of 0.6220 (1.6070) to 0.6280 (1.5980). Building approvals although slightly better than predicted are now down over 28% year on year which is extremely concerning. Soft Business operating profits also put pressure on the Aussie pointing to further downside risks in the currency heading into today’s RBA cash rate announcement. No change is expected from the 1.50% for now but comments by Lowe will be interesting. Later in the week we also have the (ECB) European Central Bank cash rate announcement which will remain at 0.0% as they have nowhere to go, comments will more than likely be dovish based on recent data indicating the economy in the region is slowing.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6253
Resistance: 0.6275 (1.6300)
Support: 0.6135 (1.5940)
Last Weeks Range: 1.8230-1.8721 (1.582-1.6071)

Yesterday’s surprisingly good Australian Capital Expenditure for the December 2018 quarter printed at 2.0% with Australian business investment rising sharply providing a much needed boost to GDP. The Aussie rallied for a hour on the news before Aussie dollar bears returned taking price to 0.6234 (1.6040). Price momentum could continue to the downside if the trade talks between China and the US were to break down. Progress has been made this week but markets remain nervous. Buyers of Euro should get your cheque books out.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6239   EURAUD 1.6028
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6232- 0.6325   EURAUD 1.5808- 1.6045

The Australian Dollar (AUD) reversed off last week’s low of 0.6240 (1.6020) to regain most of its losses travelling to 0.6320 (1.5820) Tuesday. Lowe made comment that it was unlikely rates would go up this year as the RBA needed a lift to inflation. He didn’t rule out the possibility of raising the cash rate next year but would be concerned if inflation stayed below the 2-3% band. News of a total ban on Australia coal into China was also quashed by Chinese customs officials, this bought buyers back into AUD. German CPI pints at the end of the week. We expect risk currencies such as the AUD to dominate while the global mood around China/US trade remains positive.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6308 (1.5842)
Resistance: 0.6330 (1.6000)
Support: 0.6250 (1.5800)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6243-0.6352 (1.5743-1.6018)

In the past 24 hours of trading in the Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) pair we have seen huge downward pressure develop in the Aussie. Price has dropped from 0.6350 (1.5750) to 0.6240 (1.6020). Aussie Jobs numbers released well up surprising markets, booting the AUD for a while until Westpac Bank decided they wanted to sell AUD and announced that they expect the RBA to cut the cash rate this year in August and November. This started to bring sellers to the market when the Aussie was hit hard again with news that the Chinese had placed a ban of Australian coal imports for 2019. The news particularly bad for the Australian economy as coal is Australia’s biggest export earner. A retest of 0.6120 (1.6350) the multi year low is in jeopardy.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6258   EURAUD 1.5979
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6242- 0.6352   EURAUD 1.5742- 1.6019

The Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) remains choppy as ever. Last week was the Aussie Dollar’s turn to advance on the EUR with the pair travelling to 0.6330 (1.5800) where it closed. The Euro picked up some support Monday in thin US holiday trading reversing some losses back to 0.6305 (1.5860) This week is a busy one for the cross with French and German manufacturing data to release along with Aussie employment figures. We expect risk to continue this week with price action to return to the high of 0.6330 (1.5800). Friday RBA governor Lowe speaks again, if he continues to paint the Aussie economy in a negative light as has done recently we could see Aussie Dollar weakness.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6298 (1.5878)
Resistance: 0.6330 (1.5980)
Suppor: 0.6290 (1.5800)
(Last Weeks Range: 0.6261-0.6329 (1.5801-1.5973)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) fall to 0.6320 (1.5820) Thursday night against the Euro (EUR) as investors chose the risk trade. Overnight German quarterly GDP printed at 0.0% from 0.1% markets were predicting narrowly avoiding a recession as German companies struggle with a weakening global economy based on Trump’s trade dispute with China. A recession is deemed two negative GDP quarters in a row. Germany the biggest country in the Eurozone reported no growth in the last quarter on 2018. The preceding quarters showed positive growth but these latest two quarters highlights a real turnaround.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6281   EURAUD 1.5921
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6250- 0.6321   EURAUD 1.5820- 1.5998

Last week’s hangover from several separate RBA dovish comments could continue to weigh on the Australian Dollar (AUD). The Euro (EUR) already looks to push higher against the under pressure Aussie to 0.6250 (1.6000) Certainly German prelim fourth quarter GDP will help if this comes in positive above 0.1%. Third quarter 2018 was poor with expenditure of households declining. Later in the week assistant RBA governor Kent speaks.

Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.6263 (1.5966)
Resistance: 0.6310 (1.6060)
Support: 1.6230 (1.5850)
Last Week’s Range: 0.6227-0.6358 (1.5729-1.6059)

Risk currencies took a hit overnight with equity markets coming off large- the Nasdaq is down over 1.5% on the day and the Australian Dollar has tanked across the board this week on general weakness making things worse. Against the Euro (EUR) we have seen price reverse from earlier week moves from 0.6360 (1.5730) to 0.6250 (1.6000) Softer German factory orders should have put pressure on the EUR but hasn’t after figures reported a decline of -0.4% when 0.8% growth was expected. This highlights the pressure the Aussie has on it and will continue have on it as long as the US/China trade situation remains unsolved.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR 0.6235    EURAUD 1.6038
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6230- 0.6357    EURAUD 1.5729- 1.6050

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