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AUD to GBP – Pound Sterling to Australian Dollar

When converting AUD to GBP, or Pounds Sterling to Australian dollars (GBP to AUD), by exchanging via Direct FX, you will save a significant amount of money. Our wholesale currency exchange rates for money transfers are significantly more competitive than bank foreign exchange rates. Being Australasian based, we specialise in knowing what drives AUD/GBP currency conversion rates.

AUD to GBP Overview: The Australian dollar is currently seen as a barometer for global growth. Whilst the Pound Sterling is also seen as a “growth currency”, it gravitates closer to the middle of the “growth currency, safe haven currency” spectrum, in terms of currency risk profiles. Australia’s exposure to the Asian growth economies of the past decade, has seen it make what is now arguably a paradigm shift higher in value, against the Pound Sterling.

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Historical Ranges: 1 year 5 years 10 years
AUD/GBP .5238 – .5811 .4466 – .6622 .4466 – .6955
GBP/AUD 1.7209 – 1.9093 1.5101 – 2.2393 1.4378 – 2.2393

Current Official Cash Rates:
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): 0.25%         Bank of England (BoE): 0.1%

We provide insight into the Australian Dollar and Pound Sterling (AUD/GBP) currency pair by reporting trends, market news and providing relative currency charts.

It’s been a rocky start to the week in the British Pound (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD) with price action rallying in both directions as the pair find its feet. Early action saw price move to 0.5670 (1.7640) on UK coronavirus concerns but was back at 0.5625 (1.7780) early Tuesday as risk aversion gripped markets. Coronavirus concerns are back making headlines in the UK as the British people consider a second wave of coronavirus infections with cases rising above 4,000 a day. Scientists are warning the UK could face 50,000 per day in October if the virus is not slowed. At the current rate it’s doubling every 7 days. The Aussie has a quiet week on the economic calendar with just UK Manufacturing releasing Wednesday. We think the AUD will continue to appreciate this week with price 2predicted to retest the previous high at 0.5715 (1.7500)
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5628 (1.7768)
Resistance: 0.5705 (1.8080)
Support: 0.5530 (1.7530)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5606-0.5702 (1.7539-1.7837)

The British Pound (GBP) recovered some of last week’s losses against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.5600 (1.7850) into Thursday after trading at 0.5700 (1.7550) Monday. Australian Employment continues to strengthen with a 111,000 improvement to the labour force with the Unemployment Rate coming in considerably lower than the predicted 7.7% at 6.8% in August. This spiked a mild jump in the AUD but most importantly it will give the RBA some breathing space so they can keep their cautiously optimistic tone heading into their next policy release. The Bank of England voted 0-9 to retain the rate at 0.25% but in a dovish statement followed with comments from governor Lowe saying the Central bank are investigating ways of stepping around obstacles to make preparations for rates to dive into the negatives in efforts to lower borrowing costs. Price traded around the 0.5640 (1.7740) level early Friday and will more than likely not go far through to the close.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5639 GBPAUD 1.7730
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5606- 0.5702 GBPAUD 1.7537- 1.7836

The British Pound (GBP) recovered some of last week’s losses against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.5600 (1.7850) into Thursday after trading at 0.5700 (1.7550) Monday. Australian Employment continues to strengthen with a 111,000 improvement to the labour force with the Unemployment Rate coming in considerably lower than the predicted 7.7% at 6.8% in August. This spiked a mild jump in the AUD but most importantly it will give the RBA some breathing space so they can keep their cautiously optimistic tone heading into their next policy release. The Bank of England voted 0-9 to retain the rate at 0.25% but in a dovish statement followed with comments from governor Lowe saying the Central bank are investigating ways of stepping around obstacles to make preparations for rates to dive into the negatives in efforts to lower borrowing costs. Price traded around the 0.5640 (1.7740) level early Friday and will more than likely not go far through to the close.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5639 GBPAUD 1.7730
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5606- 0.5702 GBPAUD 1.7537- 1.7836

The English Pound has been hammered over recent sessions dropping from 1.8190 (0.5500) from the previous week to 1.7490 (0.5720) on renewed no Brexit fears. Discussions have again broken down with the latest meeting not resolving the Market Bill conflict. Boris Johnson said the UK must reserve the right to override the Brexit agreement to protect the country’s “economic and political integrity”. The Market Bill will get its first test this week when MP’s vote, many have reservations as it will give the UK powers to break international law if it’s passed. The GBP has recovered smalls Monday as investors took profit from short GBP setups. Brexit concerns will no-doubt keep the pressure on the Pound this week.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5682 (1.7599)
Resistance: 0.5715 (1.7870)
Support: 0.5600 (1.7500)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5526-0.5716 (1.7494-1.8095)

The Brexit train wreck is back to haunt us this week with the latest headline, that Boris is considering reneging on the current Brexit agreement in favour of a “no Brexit” deal. This has gone down like a warm fish milkshake with EU negotiators threatening legal action if BJ doesn’t change his position on the matter before month end. Very little progress has been made in recent talks especially on the key issue of the Irish border situation. Our initial target this week in our earlier commentary was towards 0.5600 (1.7880) – this was blown out of the water with the GBP heavily sold off to 0.5680 (1.7600) into Friday sessions. Bias south could continue for the GBP for a while longer amid short Pound profit taking by investors.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5674 GBPAUD 1.7624
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5488- 0.5685 GBPAUD 1.7589- 1.8220

The English Pound (GBP) has started the week poorly against the Australian Dollar (AUD) falling off the open to the bottom of the recent range at 1.8060 (0.5540). US Holiday saw most currencies stagnate but the GBP was a different story. Things are not shaping up to rosy for any positive GBP moves. The GBP is starting to look pressured by Brexit uncertainty again with BJ and the Govt understood to be prepared to walk away from EU negotiations. Johnson may introduce the internal market bill to override the withdrawal agreement. To make matters worse for the Pound coronavirus numbers have spiked to the most daily numbers since May. A thin calendar this week with only NAB Business Confidence printing today. Expected target this week: 0.5600 (1.7880)
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5533 (1.8073)
Resistance: 0.5600 (1.8270)
Support: 0.5475 (1.7850)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5468-0.5539 (1.6134-1.6325)

As we predicted the English Pound (GBP) recovered off 0.5540 (1.8050) early in the week against the Australian Dollar (AUD) pushing to 0.5480 (1.8250) Friday as risk sentiment worsened. Bank of England governor Ramsden warned this week of risks to the UK economy. He said the level of Britain’s economic output could be permanently 1.5% lower than before the pandemic. The BoE has more room to bring in more QE if they needed to in the form of bond buying. The RBA left their cash rate unchanged Tuesday at 0.25% a record low prior to the much more awaited second quarter GDP release. Figures showed a drop of 7.0% instead of the 6.0% expected to June putting the country formally in a recession. Looking ahead to next week we have only Australian Business Confidence of significance. On the downside we see strong range resistance at 0.5440 (1.8370)
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5475 GBPAUD 1.8264
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5468- 0.5534 GBPAUD 1.8071- 1.8287

The Australian Dollar (AUD) fell away to the top end of the recent range spectrum at week’s end against the British Pound (GBP) to 0.5520 (1.8120) With a London (Summer Bank Holiday) yesterday it was a slow start to the week. Bank of England Governor spoke at the Jackson Hole event saying- the Covid crisis to date has demonstrated that QE and forward guidance has been effective, “we are not out of the firepower by any means”. Later today the RBA will announce their cash rate and policy statement, but the main event will be the release of second quarter GDP to June 30 with markets anticipating -6.0% to go along with first quarter’s -0.3% putting the Australian economy firmly into recession. Expected direction this week: GBP to recover losses to 0.5500 (1.8200)
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5521 (1.8112)
Resistance: 0.5540 (1.8370)
Support: 0.5445 (1.8060)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5459-0.5534 (1.8070-1.8319)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) reversed losses midweek from 0.5460 (1.8320) against the British Pound (GBP) after data supported the AUD to 0.5505 (1.8170). Construction work completed in June came in better than expected as well as Private Capital Expenditure for the second quarter helped push price back to the top of the recent range. A daily close below 1.8120 coils spell further declines for the GBP if the Aussie regains momentum seen pre-August. Certainly, moving back below the 50 day moving average could confirm the shift. Next week’s RBA is the main focus along with second quarter GDP.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5504 GBPAUD 1.8168
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5458- 0.5509 GBPAUD 1.8150- 1.8319

The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovered losses against the British Pound (GBP) as the cross head into the weekend bouncing back from 0.5435 (1.8400) to 0.5475 (1.8270). The RBA Minutes confirmed that the downturn had not been as severe as first expected on the Australian economy, but Fiscal and Monetary support would be required to support the economy for some time. UK’s m/m inflation came in decent at 1.1% for July up from 0.8% for the same time in June supporting the GBP. Late in the week at the Jackson Hole Symposium via satellite Bank of England governor Bailey speaks. Apart from this it’s a very quiet week on the data front. Expected direction this week: Continue in recent ranges
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5478 (1.8254)
Resistance: 0.5525 (1.8400)
Support: 0.5435 (1.8100)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5432-0.5507 (1.8160-1.8410)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) reversed lower off recent range highs at 0.5515 (1.8140) to drop to the lower range band zone at 0.5445 (1.8370) Friday. UK’s m/m inflation came in hot at 1.1% for July up from 0.8% for the same time in June. Year on year improvement of 1.0% from the 0.6% anticipated pushed buyers into Pound. Earlier the RBA Minutes noted that the downturn had not been as severe as first expected and Fiscal and Monetary support would be required to support the economy for some time. Brexit talks remain at the crossroads with both the EU and UK parties in deadlock. Time is fast running out for a 31st October result with talks running through until tonight. The UK have said they are confident a deal can be reached by the end of the month. A daily close above 0.5440 (1.8390) could signal further weakness in store for the Aussie.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5447 GBPAUD 1.8357
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5438- 0.5517 GBPAUD 1.8125- 1.8386

The British Pound (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross has flatlined over the past 3 weeks as price pivots around 0.5475 (1.8260) levels. Coming off the recent range low of 0.5450 (1.8350) the Aussie is marginally stronger this week as it targets recent tops at 0.5515 (1.8130) as risk markets improved. Positive Brexit talks could open the door to volatility in the pair with Brexit negotiations about to kick off again this week between the UK and EU officials. Also of note is the delayed US-China meeting to review phase 1 of the trade deal, offering risk assets some relief. Later in the week is UK Manufacturing. Forecast: A return to 0.5465 (1.8300).
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5500 (1.1820)
Resistance: 0.5520 (1.8340)
Support: 0.5450 (1.8120)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5449-0.5516 (1.8128-1.8352)

Price in the Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) is trading just below the weekly open at 0.5475 (1.8270) early Friday but has been knocked around. The UK’s preliminary GDP for the second quarter came in less than ideal at -20.0% but was slightly better than expected sending price to 0.5460 (1.8320) This puts the UK formally into a recession after first quarter figures were also negative at -2.0%. The small pickup in the June numbers were positive however as businesses went back to work. Australian unemployment surprisingly dropped in July to 7.5% from 7.4%- lower than the predicted 7.8% markets were expecting. But it was the employment numbers which surged to a further 114,000 from 30,000 expected which really stunned analysts. Covid shutdowns hit the Australian economy hard in April and May but rebounded in June. The Aussie strengthened post jobs releases to 0.5505 (1.8170) but has since underperformed Friday back to 0.5475 (1.8270)
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5466 GBPAUD 1.8295
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5457- 0.5503 GBPAUD 1.8172- 1.8324

The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovered somewhat during Friday trading reaching 0.5515 (1.8140) but any small momentum shift ended when the British Pound (GBP) regained the edge making it through to 0.5470 (1.8290) Tuesday. UK Trade secretary Truss said new trade deal negotiations with Japan were going well but has recently stalled over blue cheese demands. Meanwhile Bank of England’s Ramsden said their debt response was necessary in light of coronavirus and the central bank had further room to move if necessary. Attention lies with Australian employment numbers publishing at the end of the week. The Unemployment rate is expected to click higher to 7.8% in July from the 7.4% in June which could put further pressure on the AUD. With price tracking along with the 50-day moving average we expect movement to test prior lows. Expected direction this week: Retest of 0.5515 (1.8130).
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5468 (1.8288)
Resistance: 0.5520 (1.8400)
Support:0.5435 (1.8120)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5119-0.5514 (1.8136-1.8352)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovered Thursday losses from 0.5450 (1.8350) to trade back to 0.5510 (1.8160) early Friday. The Bank of England unanimously voted 0-9 to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged last night at 0.10% with no plans from Governor Andrew Bailey to bring in negative interest rates over the coming months. They also decided to leave the size of the bond buying program unchanged at 745B. Earlier the RBA also left their cash rate unchanged at 0.25% which was widely anticipated with governor Lowe saying the usual rhetoric- Australia is experiencing a severe contraction as they seek to contain coronavirus. Even though the worst looks to have passed the outlook remains highly uncertain. The recovery will be dependent on containment of the virus. Looking ahead we see Aussie keenly awaited employment data published late next week.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5505 GBPAUD 1.8165
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5433- 0.5511 GBPAUD 1.8145- 1.8404

A sharp reversal in the British Pound (GBP) last week against the Australian Dollar (AUD) has seen price push back to 0.5450 (1.8350) Tuesday off the recent high of 0.5650 (1.7700) and slipping past key support at 0.5510 (1.8160) from early July levels. The Pound struggled through July but has come out swinging in August and could be setting up for a healthy correction as recent positive data suggests. This week we have Bank of Australia and Bank of England both announcing their cash rates and policy statements. The RBA is expected to be upbeat with a possible economic recovery except in Victoria. They will hold at 0.25%. We suspect it will be business as usual for the moment at the Bank of England. Expected weekly direction: price to push past 0.5420 (1.8450)
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5445 (1.8365)
Resistance: 0.5500 (1.8700)
Support: 0.5350 (1.8180)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5434-0.5565 (1.7971-1.8403)

The British Pound (GBP) extended its push higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.5445 (1.8370) a 6-week low this morning before sharply pulling back to 0.5500 (1.8180) as the Aussie recovered losses. The cross has pierced the 50-day moving average overnight giving an opportunity for GBP sellers to step in and take advantage of better levels. No data this week and a risk off tone has led to the Pound recovering off its recent lows. This momentum may not last as Boris Johnson announced further lockdown this morning in parts of Northern England as the country ramps up the fight against coronavirus.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5493 GBPAUD 1.8205
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5454- 0.5571 GBPAUD 1.7948- 1.8335

After surging to a fresh July 2019 high of 0.5650 (1.7700) the Australian Dollar (AUD) struggled to push on reversing all its moves to 0.5550 (1.8030) into the close as “risk on” faded. Disappointing US jobless claims and favourable UK data the culprit. Retail Sales printed at 13.9% for June after a disappointing May’s -18.0% and UK’s private sector growth hit a 5 year high as businesses opened up after coronavirus lockdown measures, both assisting to boost the GBP. RBA’s Kent spoke yesterday saying negative rates would not help in the current market and new monetary policy measures would come at a cost, while governor Lowe said the currency was broadly in line with economic fundamentals. With the current price around 0.5550 (1.8030) these are still excellent levels to buy GBP especially with the overall analysts consensus that we could see the AUD struggle to push higher in the coming months.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5560 (1.7985)
Resistance: 0.5640 (1.8070)
Support: 0.5535 (1.7730)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5534-0.5651 (1.7695-1.8069)

The Australian dollar (AUD) surged to fresh cycle high against the British Pound (GBP) in the first half of this week, briefly trading at 0.5652 (1.7693). The RBA minutes released on Tuesday afternoon suggested the central bank believes the AUD is currently trading in line with fundamentals and they showed no concern about its current level. Market risk sentiment has faded however in the latter stages of this week and that’s taken some of the shine off the AUD, dragging the AUDGBP pair back down toward 0.5575 (1.7937) where it currently trades. There is a raft of UK data set for release tonight in the form of Retail Sales, Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, and Consumer Confidence. Clients wanting to convert AUD to GBP should take advantage of any further rallies toward 0.5650 (1.7700) as that area now looks to provide solid resistance.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5579 GBPAUD 1.7924
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5536 – 0.5651 GBPAUD 1.7696 – 1.8065

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has given back most of last week’s gains against the British Pound (GBP) coming off Monday’s open at 0.5570 (1.7950) to travel back to 0.5540 (1.8060) Tuesday. Bank of England’s chief economist Haldine came out saying he insists the British economy is underway in its V shaped recovery despite concerns by other policymakers that the economy is struggling and job cuts to follow will send the unemployment rate higher and GDP lower. His comments rallied the GBP together with news that the Oxford University coronavirus Vaccine was going very well showing signs it was safe and stimulated a strong immune response. Despite the jump in the GBP price is trading within the 3-week range. A break below 0.5500 (1.8200) could signal further upside bias for the Pound.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5544 (1.8037)
Resistance: 0.5590 (1.8170)
Support: 0.5500 (1.7890)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5500-1.7890 (0.5524-0.5582 (1.7981-1.8104)

Risk sentiment remained poor throughout the week taking the Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) cross from 0.5500 (1.8180) to 0.5580 (1.7930) into Friday trading as investors sought the safer Pound. Making matters worse for buyers of the AUD was Australian jobs numbers. The Unemployment Rate printed slightly higher than we were predicting at 7.4% vs 7.2% re-confirming the Aussie sell off even though employment increased 210,000 from estimates of 106,000 for the month of June. The number of people claiming unemployment in the UK decreased in June by 28,000 holding steady during the coronavirus pandemic ripped through business. But signs are overwhelming that numbers are set to skyrocket in the July jobs report predicted to be as bad as levels not seen since the 1980’s. Currently we expect price to move back to 0.5590 (1.7880) the long term high.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5558 GBPAUD 1.7992
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5499- 0.5578 GBPAUD 1.7926- 1.8183

The Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) closed the week around the 0.5500 (1.8180) area after a solid week of support for the Loonie, climbing from the 0.5595 (1.7880) zone. Risk flow into midday Tuesday took price to 0.5540 (1.8050) before mood changed again shifting price to 0.5530 (1.8090). The UK govt has announced 705M GBP in funding for new border infrastructure once the UK leaves the EU at the end of the year. Aussie employment figures print Thursday the attention, with unemployment expected to come in around 7.2% in June from May’s 7.1%. We would need to see a break through 0.5495 (1.8200) to confirm a bullish GBP trend reversal taking off.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5203 (1.9220)
Resistance: 0.5585 (1.8200)
Support: 0.5495 (1.7900)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5494-0.5590 (1.7888-1.8201)

The British Pound (GBP) is the big improver this week. Reversing off the prior high at 0.5570 (1.7960) the Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) cross sharply travelled lower to 0.5512 (1.8140) Friday. The UK govt announced a GBP 9B job retention bonus plan, temporary tax cuts on home purchases up to GBP500,000 and lowered VAT on hospitality and tourism industries. This has given the Pound a renewed lift with the GBP looking to advance further in the near term. Chancellor Sunak gave a heavy weighting to job losses saying this is the most urgent challenge we face right now. The Pound also pushed higher on reports the EU and UK were close to finding a “happy zone” in the issue with fishing rights as part of the Brexit negotiations. RBA’s Lowe maintained the current 0.25% Tuesday choosing to stick with current policy. He said although indicators have picked up over the last few weeks the worst of the global economic downturn has passed. We would need to see a break through 0.5495 (1.8200) to confirm a bullish trend reversal taking place.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5517 GBPAUD 1.8125
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5512- 0.5590 GBPAUD 1.7888- 1.8140

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continued its late week momentum against the British Pound (GBP) to reach 0.5590 (1.7880) just shy of the long-term level of 0.5600 (1.7865) as stocks pushed higher taking risk products with them. Bank of England’s Haskel made the statement that second quarter growth won’t be as dire as first thought which has also underpinned the Pound. Brexit negotiations got underway again last week with EU’s Barnier saying the EU still have serious differences over a post -Brexit deal. Angela Merkel urged Brussels to plan for a no deal Brexit scenario with the UK as tensions rise in the coming weeks. A clean break through 0.5600 (1.7865) would indicate a potential run to 0.5700 (1.7545)
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5578 (1.7927)
Resistance: 0.5595 (1.8060)
Support:0.5540 (1.7880)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5528-0.5598 (1.7862-1.8089)

Early in the week the British Pound extended its decline trading to 0.5595 (1.7870) before regaining losses into Friday to 0.5530 (1.8090) Aussie Trade Balance released at 8.03B down from the 9.0B markets were predicting putting pressure on the Aussie Thursday. PM Johnson has pledged a new plan to deal with post coronavirus times by unveiling government plans to “build build build” – he wants to accelerate plans of 5B on infrastructure plans. Meanwhile the UK are calling China’s new Hong Kong security law a violation of the treaty between the UK and China, this could get ugly. Bank of England’s Haskel has reportedly made the statement that second quarter growth won’t be as dire as first thought which has also underpinned the Pound. Brexit negotiations got underway again this week with EU’s Barnier saying the EU still have serious differences over a post -Brexit trade deal. The long term bullish trend on the chart looks solid and could remain in pay for a while yet.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5553 GBPAUD 1.8008
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5528- 0.5596 GBPAUD 1.7870- 1.8087

The English Pound (GBP) extended its decline to 0.5585 (1.7900) early in Tuesday trading against the Australian Dollar (AUD) creating a fresh 9 month high. The Pound finished the week on a sour note falling heavy in response to Brexit roadblocks and poor risk sentiment. Inventors are becoming worried about the fate of the Pound as the risks of a no deal Brexit and a second wave of coronavirus threaten to severely impact the UK economy. This week the latest round of Brexit discussions get underway with little hope of any progress being made. Australian Trade Balance for May is the only highlight on a thin calendar. With price over 0.5550, buying GBP is very attractive.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5582 (1.7914)
Resistance: 0.5590 (1.8130)
Support: 0.5515 (1.7890)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5515-0.5589 (1.7893-1.8131)

The Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) has ranged this week pivoting off 0.5545 (1.8040) as markets look for directional cues. A midweek bounce in the Pound from 0.5585 (1.7910) to 0.5515 (1.8130) after a decent print in UK Manufacturing highlighted a sharp improvement for June in business activity while halting recent data setbacks. With more headlines surrounding the trade talks between China and the US not going well and the IMF downgrading the global outlook for 2020, this could start to affect AUD performance. We think the Aussie is overvalued and should start to decline into the second half of this year. A break through 0.5450 (1.8350) would confirm this- but for now the long term bullish trend remains.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5533 GBPAUD 1.8073
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5516- 0.5582 GBPAUD 1.7915- 1.8129

The Australian Dollar (AUD) looks to have kicked off another wave higher against the struggling English Pound (GBP) trading back at 0.5545 (1.8040) early Tuesday. Last week’s low around 0.5420 (1.8450) shows the continued weakness of the Pound. The weakest currency in June as it turns out. Not helping was Friday’s round of UK data which was mixed- retails Sales came in stronger, but the trade deficit was wider. RBA’s Lowe spoke yesterday and talked up the AUD saying he wasn’t surprised of its current strength across the board and didn’t see it a problem at the moment – he said he would prefer a weaker Aussie and would use the tools he has available to bring the Dollar down and the economy out of its coronavirus sleeper hold. The GBP may get some respite when Brexit negotiations start back up between the EU and EU negotiators.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5545 (1.8034)
Resistance: 0.5570 (1.8320)
Support: 0.5460 (1.7960)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5442-0.5573 (1.7944-1.8377)

Early week action in the British Pound (GBP) to 0.5410 (1.8480) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) was short lived with price reversing into Friday back to long term highs at 0.5520 (1.8115). The Reserve Bank of Australia minutes from the last policy meeting confirmed the usual rhetoric around downside risks to the global outlook- nothing new here. Aussie unemployment printed worse than markets were expecting at -227,000 versus -105,000 people filing for unemployment in May. The unemployment rate also jumped higher than expected to 7.1%. The data only momentarily weakened the Aussie before last night’s Bank of England (BoE) policy statement reconfirmed AUD buyer interest after a dovish central bank. The Bank of England increased its asset buying program by an additional 100B while leaving their cash rate on hold at 0.10%. We expect a return to 0.5650 (1.7700) levels of June 2019 with coronavirus impacts on the UK economy greater with GDP on the horizon expected to be very poor.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5522 GBPAUD 1.8109
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5427- 0.5530 GBPAUD 1.8082- 1.8424

As equity markets recovered during overnight trading, so too has the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) leaving the weekly open in its wake climbing to 0.5510 (1.8160) into Tuesday against the British Pound (GBP). The Bank of England (BoE) announce their cash rate and monetary policy Thursday morning with no expectations of a shift in rate or policy. The Central Bank will make comments on the possibility of a second wave coronavirus during the next two quarters and should highlight their expectations of an improving economy as long as people remain conscious of social distancing and lockdown measures in place. An increase to the current QE program may also be tweaked by another 150B expansion, this has already been priced in.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5496 (1.8195)
Resistance: 0.5530 (1.8450)
Support: 0.5420 (1.8080)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5420-0.5522 (1.8108-1.8451)

The recent run in the Australian Dollar to 0.5530 (1.8090) came to an end earlier this week against the British Pound when risk mood changed, reversing recent trend to 0.5420 (1.8450) into Friday trading. The OECD was out saying the UK economy is expected to suffer the worst coronavirus damage in the developed world. For now, markets have concentrated on the fallout from a dovish US Fed midweek which has shifted risk related products negative in the past 36 hours. NAB Business Confidence highlighted a broad-based improvement in activity with confidence levels a little more positive in May. We are still far above the long run average of similar depths seen during the GFC and given coronavirus levels are very low in Australia this has quickened the recovery of sorts. UK GDP for April publishes tonight with expectations of an abysmal 18% drop to growth. We may see price shape towards 0.5465 (1.8300) if the release is poor.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5432 GBPAUD 1.8409
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5420- 0.5526 GBPAUD 1.8096- 1.8450

The Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) has consolidated around the 0.5510 (1.8140) zone after weeks of AUD momentum. We expect the Aussie bull run to progress further deep into this week with risk markets the driver. Brexit negotiations don’t seem to have the market overly concerned at the moment although some discussion over fishing rights by EU fishing nations with chief negotiator Barnier suggesting a new process of how rights are calculated sounds promising. A daily close above the 0.5525 (1.8100) level could indicate more selling of the GBP on its way to 0.5575 (1.7940) resistance.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5503 (1.8171)
Resistance: 0.5540 (1.8500)
Support: 0.5405 (1.8050)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5419-0.5538 (1.8057-1.8453)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its rally off last week’s close against the Euro (EUR) reaching 0.5495 (1.8200) into Wednesday morning NY session’s close outperforming a poor performing British Pound (GBP) We have seen snippets of the Pound better bid on encouraging EU and UK trade negotiations but overall the demand for the Aussie has come from broad based risk buying as risk appetite continues to look lively. US weakness is driving some of the moves up in the Aussie as well. Aussie GDP for the March quarter prints late today with growth expected to fall as much as -0.5%. We are expecting a reversal back towards 0.5435 (1.8400) levels this week as risk mood deteriorates.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5530 (1.8083)
Resistance: 0.5555 (1.8600)
Support: 0.5375 (1.8000)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5359-0.5522 (1.8108-1.8659)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to outperform the British Pound (GBP) reaching 0.5420 (1.8450) midweek after a slow start with UK Spring Bank holiday thinning prices. UK’s coronavirus response efforts seem to be getting a bad wrap recently with the UK having the second biggest mortality rate behind the US. This week has been particularly bad with the death rate higher than normal. The timing of the lockdowns having something to do with it. The Aussie looks comfortable extending gains against the Pound into Friday- well through the Yearly high at 0.5300 (1.8870) now it looks to track with the 50-day moving average much higher for a while at least.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5379 GBPAUD 1.8590
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5357- 0.5419 GBPAUD 1.8453- 1.8665

The AUD has outperformed the GBP on this cross , climbing from 0.5303 early last week to a high of 0.5398 late last week…It has eased to 0.5370 currently on the China tariff news, but given the confusion that continues around the UK virus response we favour further AUD strength on this cross over the week….A break through the 0.5400 resistance level would target 0.0.5530 but given the trade concerns this level is unlikely to be seen this week. UK economic data continues to be weak, with potential for large job layoffs and speculation that the BoE will turn to setting negative interest rates to help stimulate the economy keeping the lid on any potential for GBP rallies.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5364 (1.8642)
Resistance: 0.5400 (1.8700)
Support: 0.5350 (1.8530)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5288-0.5396 (1.8529-1.8908)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to extend gains this week into Friday sessions, the British Pound (GBP) not catching a break all week. The Aussie broke through the yearly high at 0.5340 (1.8730) on its way to 0.5400 (1.8520) an early November 2019 high. Bank of England Governor Bailey is still not ruling out anything with regards to negative rates and is keeping the zero lower band rate closely watched. The UK Government launched its GBP 500M “Future Fund” Wednesday to assist with start-up businesses needing cash to survive. The scheme will assist with loans ranging from 125,000 to 5M. The number of people in the UK who filed for unemployment for April was 856,000 higher than the expected 675,000, the news weakening the GBP. Strong support is seen at 0.5400 (1.8520), a push through this area and the cross is in thin air, all the way to 0.5650 (1.7700)
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5366 GBPAUD 1.8635
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5306- 0.5399 GBPAUD 1.8520- 1.8845

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its bullish run Monday against the British Pound (GBP) to 0.5350 (1.8700). Slipping past the yearly open price around 0.5330 (1.8770) Aussie demand remains high with sentiment improving overnight. The Bank of England is reviewing an array of non-conventional monetary policies to expand the QE program to riskier assets as it fast runs out of room. The Pound continues to be weighed down by concerns over Brexit talks with reports that negotiator Frost is warning of a no Brexit deal if talks fail over the next 15 days. The September 2019 high of 0.5400 (1.8530) is fast coming into play, we expect price to follow the bullish trendline and test this area in the coming days.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5350 (1.8691)
Resistance: 0.5360 (1.9000)
Support: 0.5265 (1.8650)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5229-0.5358 (1.8663-1.9123)

Early week action saw the English Pound (GBP) recover off recent lows against the Australian Dollar (AUD) only to give back gains to the 0.5290 (1.8900) level, around the early January 2020 zone. Australian Jobs numbers for April highlighted the difficulties the economy faces releasing its biggest monthly Jobs decline on record of 595K for April. The number was fairly expected with falls perhaps mitigated by the unemployment rate not rising as much (6.2% v 8.3%). Prime Minister Morrison said it was devastating to lose so many jobs. Of note was the UK estimated GDP and Manufacturing both came in a whole lot better than markets were expecting (-2.0% v -2.6%) but failed to kick on the Pound. GBP selling pressures remain into Friday lunch with price testing the high of 0.5300 (1.8870)
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5283 GBPAUD 1.8926
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5229- 0.5299 GBPAUD 1.8871- 1.9124

Early week action saw the English Pound (GBP) recover off recent lows against the Australian Dollar (AUD) only to give back gains to the 0.5290 (1.8900) level, around the early January 2020 zone. Australian Jobs numbers for April highlighted the difficulties the economy faces releasing its biggest monthly Jobs decline on record of 595K for April. The number was fairly expected with falls perhaps mitigated by the unemployment rate not rising as much (6.2% v 8.3%). Prime Minister Morrison said it was devastating to lose so many jobs. Of note was the UK estimated GDP and Manufacturing both came in a whole lot better than markets were expecting (-2.0% v -2.6%) but failed to kick on the Pound. GBP selling pressures remain into Friday lunch with price testing the high of 0.5300 (1.8870)
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5283 GBPAUD 1.8926
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5229- 0.5299 GBPAUD 1.8871- 1.9124

The Australian Dollar (AUD) pushed higher off the weekly open to 0.5280 (1.8950) but was met with buyers of British Pound (GBP) as investors took a cautious tone. GBP recovered to 0.5240 (1.9080) early Tuesday sessions as the cross now awaits further directional cues. UK GDP m/m for March prints tomorrow with expectations of a sharp decline of -7.9% from February’s -0.1%. The number of people who filed for unemployment in April is expected to jump by 550K from March’s 5,900 with the unemployment rate to rise to 8.3% from 5.2%. A daily close below 0.5250 (1.9050) could spell a break lower for the Aussie.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5234 (1.9105)
Resistance: 0.5280 (1.9500)
Support: 0.5130 (1.8950)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5162-0.5278 (1.8947-1.9374)

After underperforming last week to 0.5130 (1.9500) the Australian Dollar has reversed losses regaining momentum against the British Pound (GBP) Friday trading back to 0.5255 (1.9030). The Bank of England voted 9-0 in favour to keep rates on hold at 0.10% this morning setting monetary policy to try and meet the banks 2.0% inflation target to assist with employment and growth. The committee also voted 7-2 in favour of the bank retaining its 200B government bond buying programme. The bank said the outlook for the UK remains uncertain with inflation declining to 1.5% in March and likely to fall below 1.0% over the following months reflecting the fallout of coronavirus. Earlier in the week the RBA left the cash rate at 0.25% at its policy meeting with the board saying they won’t increase the cash rate until full employment is reached and they can be confident inflation can be sustained within the 2-3% band. The yearly high around 0.5330 (1.8750) is coming into view but we think the GBP will bounce back.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5255 GBPAUD 1.9033
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5118- 0.5269 GBPAUD 1.8978- 1.9538

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has outperformed the English Pound (GBP) surging through support last week on its way to 0.5225 (1.9140) Tuesday clearing the key level of 0.5210 (1.9200) from the 6th of February. Friday’s Retail Sales printed at -5.1% based on expectations of a decline of -4.5% for March falling sharply as retail stores close up on 23rd of March. Coincidentally food shops had a 10.4% rise to the 3 months ending March, the strongest on record. UK Prime Minister Johnson returned to work after his bout into intensive care, warning against an early lift to coronavirus restrictions worried that they could see a spike in second wave infections. The UK has called on the EU to show support to extend the transition out of the EU for up to two year based on the fallout with coronavirus which has been massively disruptive. We think the Aussie has been a tad overbought and could weaken over the next few days. Buyers looking to buy GP should consider current prices around 0.5230 (1.9130).

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5166 (1.9357)
Resistance: 0.5265 (1.9900
Support: 0.5025 (1.9000)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5120-0.5280 (1.8940-1.9533)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has outperformed the English Pound (GBP) surging through support last week on its way to 0.5225 (1.9140) Tuesday clearing the key level of 0.5210 (1.9200) from the 6th of February. Friday’s Retail Sales printed at -5.1% based on expectations of a decline of -4.5% for March falling sharply as retail stores close up on 23rd of March. Coincidentally food shops had a 10.4% rise to the 3 months ending March, the strongest on record. UK Prime Minister Johnson returned to work after his bout into intensive care, warning against an early lift to coronavirus restrictions worried that they could see a spike in second wave infections. The UK has called on the EU to show support to extend the transition out of the EU for up to two year based on the fallout with coronavirus which has been massively disruptive. We think the Aussie has been a tad overbought and could weaken over the next few days. Buyers looking to buy GP should consider current prices around 0.5230 (1.9130)

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5231 (1.9116)
Resistance: 0.5265 (1.9500
Support: 0.5130 (1.9000)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5103-0.5234 (1.9105-1.9596)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) rallied Thursday against the British Pound (GBP) off the back of Thursday’s poor UK PMI data to 0.5160 (1.9370) a fresh 7 week high. Based on massive business shutdowns in response to the coronavirus pandemic UK manufacturing and Private Sector output continues to print dire results in the middle of a public health crisis. The results highlight the worst decline in business activity for over two decades. 27% of the UK workforce is on forced leave with around 25% of businesses are closed. UK Retail Sales prints tonight and is expected to show a decline of 4.5% for March. The Aussie continues to be well supported on dips and should continue to post gains ahead for a while. We expect 1.9300 to be retested heading into the weekly close.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5146 GBPAUD 1.9432
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5069- 0.5172 GBPAUD 1.9336- 1.9727

The Australia Dollar (AUD) pushed higher Monday to 0.5130 (1.9490) against the British Pound (GBP) and was met with 7 week resistance. The Aussie felt tensions around the globe to ease movement restrictions making investors nervous. The tumble in the Crude price to below zero also impacted sentiment. UK PM spokesman Slack said he was not able to say when the lockdown would be relaxed and the govt would review extension of the virus job retention plan. Bank of England’s Bailey said UK banks must “get on” with providing loans to small and medium size businesses to counter the effects of coronavirus to the economy. We expect a retrace towards 0.5025 (1.9900) this week as risk ramps up.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5083 (1.9673)
Resistance: 0.5125 (1.9900)
Support: 0.5025 (1.9515)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5025-0.5130 (1.9493-1.9899)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to make gains over the British Pound (GBP) continuing last week’s momentum to 0.5105 (1.9590). Early Monday the Aussie bounced off the 6 week high of 0.5125 (1.9510) and looks to retest this in the coming hours. Tomorrow’s Aussie employment numbers will be key and could shift price if the results surprise. Unemployment is expected to rise to 5.4% from 5.1% in March and job losses around the 33,000 mark. Raab is expected to extend the UK lockdown this week with scientists predicting UK deaths could accelerate in the coming days. BJ is out of hospital which is clearly good news. We are picking GBP strength over the remainder of the week with price to retest 0.5065 (1.9750)
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5089 GBPAUD 1.9650
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.4972- 0.5125 GBPAUD 1.9513- 2.0112

Trading into Tuesday the Australian Dollar (AUD) has regained last week’s losses against the British Pound (GBP) to 0.4980 (2.0080) after trading to a low of 0.4855 (2.0600). The big news to come from the BBC overnight is that Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been transferred to the Intensive Care unit as his symptoms have worsened. First secretary of state Dominic Raab has stepped in. The Bank of England said they would keep the current pace of the bond buying program unchanged at GBP 13.5Billion for this week to support the struggling economy. We may see a higher cross over the coming days as Covid-19 improves in the US and or globally.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.4990 (2.0040)
Resistance: 0.5030 (2.0570)
Support: 0.4860 (1.9870)
Last Weeks Range: 0.4856-0.5034 (1.9866-2.0591)

After a good start to the week for the Australian Dollar (AUD) hitting 0.5035 (1.9860) against the British Pound (GBP) as risk improved, the momentum wouldn’t continue. The Pound has outperformed the Aussie into Friday’s sessions reaching 0.4855 (2.0600) the Aussie crumbling. The Bank of England will continue with their bond buying program over the coming weeks as a way to influence long term interest rates and get money flowing back into the economy, they seem to be the only central bank not overly worried about their currency appreciating. While most data isn’t receiving much attention at the moment with coronavirus being the main driver of currencies next week’s February UK GDP for February could be interesting as we get another read on the impact to the economy coronavirus is having. The overall trend in the pair is still bearish as we said in the previous commentary – price extended through our prediction of 0.4915 (2.0350), look for further support in the Pound next week.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.4890 GBPAUD 2.0449
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.4856- 0.5033 GBPAUD 1.9866- 2.0592

The Australian Dollar (AUD) eased into the week pushing a tad higher against British Pound (GBP) to 0.4880 (2.0075) Boris Johnson has tested positive for coronavirus and has self-isolated, one would argue he shouldn’t have been having meeting with symptoms days before he was confirmed. Conveniently belligerent? Friday’s official Bank of England policy meeting highlighted another unanimous 9-love vote in favour of retaining the cash rate at 0.10% in efforts to try and meet its target of 2.0% inflation which will go a long way to supporting economic growth and employment. UK Current Account for the fourth quarter publishes later tonight with forecast expected to come in around -7Billion. Trend is still bearish in this pair with expectation of a retest at 0.4915 (2.0350) soon.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.4987 (2.0052)
Resistance: 0.5090 (2.0350)
Support: 0.4915 (1.9640)
Last Weeks Range: 0.4917-0.5124 (1.9515-2.0338)

Compared to recent price shift and volatility swings in the Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) pair things have relatively flatlined this week pivoting around 0.5465 (1.8300) levels. Overnight the UK experienced the largest single day of deaths from coronavirus of 115 with the total deaths now at 578. A new self-employed income support scheme will allow those with less than GBP50,000 to benefit from up to 2,500.00 per month. The taxable grant would average monthly profits over the last 3 years’ worth up to 80% of earnings. The total UK coronavirus aid package reached 544M. We expect the early week low of 0.4915 (2.0350) to be retested prior to the weekly close.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.4968 GBPAUD 2.0128
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.4914- 0.5124 GBPAUD 1.9515- 2.0349

The English Pound (GBP) started the week on the backfoot falling from 2.0300 (0.4925) levels to 1.9780 (0.5055) Tuesday. Fresh headlines are suggesting Boris Johnson has just announced a lock down. People are to remain at home unless you need to go out for essential services or medical reasons. Gatherings of no more than two people with all shops selling non-essential goods will close immediately. With the central bank cutting rates to a 1694 all time low last week of 0.10% and delivering an aggressive easing policy to restart QE of up to GBP200Billion of asset purchasing we could see the GBP react significantly over the coming days to a stronger position. We are picking a retrace of 0.4900 (2.0400) in line with a return to a ‘risk off” mood.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5077 (1.9696)
Resistance: 0.5180 (2.0200)
Support: 0.4950 (1.9300)
Last Weeks Range: 0.4897-0.5089 (0.4798-0.5089)

Coronavirus fears shook markets Thursday in what was the biggest day’s trading in currencies since January. The Australian Dollar (AUD) was put under enormous pressure as investors exited risk, the Aussie dropping to 0.4800 (2.0850) over the course of an hour. Scott Morrison announced early Thursday evening he was closing the Australian borders to non-residents, the Aussie reversing all previous losses reaching 0.5065 (1.9740) early Friday. The drama continued with the Bank of England (BoE) cutting rates to 0.10% from 0.25% in a 9-0 unanimous vote, the lowest level since the central bank was established in 1694. The news took price to 0.5000 (2.000) where it hovers, at the time of writing. Buyers of GBP should take advantage of current price levels before the AUD is sold again and we are back testing 0.4800 (2.08)

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5016 GBPAUD 1.9936
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.4797- 0.5092 GBPAUD 1.9638- 2.0845

The British Pound (GBP) continues to soar to fresh highs while the Australian Dollar (AUD) underperforms. It’s already been a massive 24 hours of volatility in the pair from 0.5090 (1.9640) to 0.4950 (2.0200)- parked around the 0.5000 (2.000) level early Tuesday. With the Bank of England slashing their cash rate last week from 0.75% to 0.25% we should see the RBA follow suit in the coming days and not wait for the scheduled April 7 meeting to cut. This should stabalise the Aussie and possibly send it back towards 0.5200 levels. Certainly today’s RBA monetary policy minutes from the March 3 meeting should give us clues going forward. For the moment risk sentiment will drive movement with the AUD looking to retest the 0.4950 (2.0200) level.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.4990 (2.0040)
Resistance: 0.5060 (2.0200)
Support: 0.4950 (1.9770)
Last Weeks Range: 0.4949-0.5098 (1.9615-2.0208)

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5010 GBPAUD 1.9960
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.4875- 0.5091 GBPAUD 1.9641- 2.0510

During the flash crash yesterday the Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) reached a high of 0.4825 (2.0715) before returning to the weekly close at 0.5085 (1.9660) into Tuesday trading. The Pound has been steadily improving even without coronavirus and continues to push into new ground. NAB Business confidence prints today before the UK Annual Budget Release comes into focus Thursday. Setbacks are expected to be well supported below 0.5160 (1.9380) for now coronavirus lingers in the background.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5040 (1.9840)
Resistance: 0.5095 (2.0200)
Support: 0.4950 (1.9630)
Last Weeks Range: 0.4832-0.5184 (1.9290-2.0697)

The English Pound (GBP) after a slow start to the week against the Australian Dollar (AUD) has regained its momentum Friday souring to 1.9615 (0.5100) Friday as sentiment in the coronavirus takes a turn for the worst. The RBA cut rates 25 basis points on Tuesday to 0.50% to support the economy as it responds to the coronavirus outbreak. The RBA says they are prepared to ease further if necessary, post release the AUD rose to 0.5190 (1.9260) Wednesday. Comments overnight from Carney was that the collective response to the virus will be powerful and timely with the BoE’s job to assist households and firms manage shock. Bank of England’s Bailey does not back an immediate cut to rates following other central bank leads, but the impact of coronavirus would be his top priority. Next week’s annual UK govt budget is the focus with expectations price in the pair could retest last week’s low at 0.5040 (1.9830)

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5110 GBPAUD 1.9569
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5060- 0.5185 GBPAUD 1.9284- 1.9760

After enjoying solid gains against the Australian dollar (AUD), Sterling (GBP) has been hit by renewed fears of a breakdown in Brexit talks, as fishing rights now appear to be a sticking point, along with an increase of Covid-18 cases in the UK .The AUD rallied on this cross back to the 0.5144 level overnight after a low of 0.5042 (the lowest level since June 2016). The RBA statement this afternoon will be pivotal as to future direction but short term the AUD on this cross is likely to remain weak given the crucial part the Chinese economy plays in AUD direction. With Chinese data expected to stay soft, a move back to retest the 0.5040 is on the cards

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5120 (1.9531)
Resistance: 0.5150 (1.9920)
Support: 0.5020 (1.9417)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5043-0.5145 (1.9438-1.9830)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) sank to 0.5065 (1.9750) levels Thursday against the British Pound (GBP) a new multi year low. Sparked by poor Aussie data- Construction work done came for the fourth quarter 2019 a disappointing -3.0% from the -1.0% expected and overall for the 2019 year down overall -7.4%. This was followed by capex at -2.8% for the fourth quarter based on predictions of 0.5% growth. The number wasn’t all bad with mining spending firming with plans for 2021 looking positive. The Bank of England then announced it would go ahead with canning a corporate tax cut to 17% in the pending budget and said other tax spending incentives would also be delayed until after the coronavirus outbreak improves. This delay to budget spending commitments prompted profit taking in the GBP with sellers exiting positions and improving the price back to 0.5110 (1.9560). Chart action still confirms the bearish channel is still prevalent, we see the AUD tanking lower in the coming days/weeks to retest the huge physiological barrier at 0.5000 (2.000)

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5095 GBPAUD 1.9627
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5057-0.5123 GBPAUD 1.9518- 1.9773

The overnight “risk off” theme was ignored by the Australian Dollar (AUD) as it came off its Friday low of 0.5085 (1.9660) to trade back at 0.5115 (1.9550) into Tuesday sessions. Price should have pushed lower in line with other risk off moves- equities and crude have fallen over 4% on the day sparked by further coronavirus fears as the virus worsens in Italy and South Korea, but it didn’t. A fresh wave of pessimism hit the GBP hard as concerns that the UK may crash out of the EU later this year without a deal with Boris Johnson promising a clean break. The bullish decline from the beginning of 2020 is still in play, any momentum topside has been met with stern resistance. A daily break below the 50 day moving average at 0.5170 (1.9350) could indicate a mood shift lower but this is some way off happening. Data to come this week is light with just Aussie Private Capital Expenditure q/q the focus Thursday.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5116 (1.9546)
Resistance: 0.5130 (1.9740)
Support: 0.5065 (1.9490)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5089-0.5180 (1.9304-1.9649)

The British Pound (GBP) is higher this week against the Australian Dollar trading to a two week high of 1.9520 (0.5120) UK CPI for the 12 months to January 2020 came in at 1.8% up from the December reading of 1.4%. The data was weirdly ignored by markets at the time of printing even weakening off to 1.9300 post release. Australian Unemployment jumped to 5.3% from 5.2% saw a sharp decline in the Aussie with investors buying GBP in somewhat delayed fashion. UK Retail Sales released at0.9% higher than the 0.7% we were expecting for January lifting the GBP further. UK Manufacturing is still to come later tonight- we see price momentum continuing through to test the prior high of 1.9745 (0.5065)

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5136 GBPAUD 1.9470
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5124- 0.5180 GBPAUD 1.9305- 1.9516

The Australian Dollar (AUD) entered the week around 0.5170 (1.9340) against the British Pound and hasn’t moved far in thin US holiday trading. The pair will get its cues when the RBA meets today to discuss the minutes from the last policy meeting on 4th February. The cross is still trading in a bearish channel from early January’s 0.5340 (1.8730) and to be frank, looks to continue for a while amid coronavirus uncertainty. A retest of the low at 1.9740 looks a chance but with Aussie employment and UK Retails Sales to come this week resistance at 0.5200 (1.9220) should hold.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5158 (1.9387)
Resistance: 0.5200 (1.9740)
Support: 0.5065 (1.9220)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5144-0.5205 (1.9211-1.9441)

It’s been a relatively quiet week in the Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) pair with movement supporting the Pound to 0.5150 (1.9408) from 0.5180’s (1.9300) weekly open. UK GDP for the month of December printed at 0.3% from 0.2% predicted with fourth quarter growth of 0.0% after 0.5% for the third quarter 2019 after poor showings in manufacturing and the motor industry. UK and EU trade negotiations haven’t generated much interest over the past few days. Next week’s calendar could bring surprises with a busy week of data to print including Aussie jobs figures and UK Retail Sales. For now direction to the downside is favored with coronavirus still at large.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5148 GBPAUD 1.9425
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5144- 0.5205 GBPAUD 1.9210- 1.9440

The Australian Dollar (AUD) regained losses late last week to 0.5220 (1.9165) but lost ground Friday against the British Pound (GBP) and early this week back to 0.5170 (1.9340) as risk sentiment weighs heavy on the AUD. Australian Trade Balance and Retails Sales released poor post the RBA rate release pushing investors back into GBP. This week’s GDP for December prints this week and is expected to come in around 0.2% bouncing from November’s poor -0.3%. RBA governor Lowe speaks at the end of the week in Melbourne. We expect the price to retest 0.5130 (1.9500) this week.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5179 (1.9308)
Resistance: 0.5210 (1.9420)
Support: 0.5150 (1.9195)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5144-0.5218 (1.9165-1.9442)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) moved to a June 2016 low at the close of play Friday against the British Pound (GBP) as risk fears worsened on coronavirus headlines. This week the GBP has been the biggest mover after Boris Johnson said there was “no need ” for the UK to follow EU trade rules, as he said he would be prepared to walk away from talks with the EU if he didn’t get a free trade agreement. “We have made our choice- we want a free trade agreement, similar to Canada’s but in the unlikely event we do not succeed, then our trade will have to be based on our existing Withdrawal Agreement with the EU”. The Pound turned sharply south reversing most of last week’s Aussie losses to 0.5150 (1.9415). With the RBA today at 4.30 NZT expected to leave the 0.75% unchanged we could see further momentum to the upside to possibly retest 0.5170 (1.9340)

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5146 (1.9432)
Resistance: 0.5170 (1.9740)
Support: 0.5065 (1.9350)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5063-0.5206 (1.921-1.9752)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended declines for the third week straight against the British Pound (GBP) falling to a fresh yearly low of 0.5125 (1.9510) as markets digest the real threat of coronavirus. The Pound rallied on the back of the Bank of England deciding to leave the cash rate unchanged at 0.75% Friday morning with the central bank voting 7-2. The comment was made “we continue to see value in sterling and expect the GBP/USD to rise further this year”. The BoE referenced the need for higher rates if growth continues to rise. Policy is set at 2.0% inflation target to help sustain growth and employment. With signs already indicating growth should improve in 2020 we think the central bank made the correct decision to leave the rate unchanged. Focus now shifts back to concerns with coronavirus and how this will affect risk markets. The cross is currently trading at a 3 year low and could retest the unbelievable level of 0.5000 (2.000) soon.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5128 GBPAUD 1.9500
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5115- 0.5218 GBPAUD 1.9163- 1.9547

The English Pound extended its hold over the Australian Dollar Tuesday trading to 0.5180 (1.9310) as global fears of the coronavirus flowed into currency markets. Risk flow supported the Pound with associated products and the AUD sold off. The mid December low of 0.5122 (1.9520) now comes into play. UK’s Manufacturing print Friday came in bang on expectation pushing the GBP higher. On the calendar this week is Aussie CPI for fourth quarter 2019 and the crucial Bank of England official Cash Rate Friday, with expectations of voting to be 3-6 in favour of a 0.75% remain. The 100 day moving average is well below the price action from September 2019 and unless we see a significant shift in GBP sentiment should remain as support for some time. Buyers of GBP should consider at current levels.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5170 (1.9342)
Resistance: 0.5235 (1.9520)
Support: 0.5123 (1.9100)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5170-0.5292 (1.8897-1.9343)

The British Pound (GBP) outperformed the Australian Dollar (AUD) this week continuing last week’s mild comeback from 1.8780 (0.5325) to reach 1.9220 (0.5200) Friday. The UK Unemployment Rate remains stable at 3.8% but average earnings edged up 3.2% from 3.1%, but it was the employment participation rate at a record high of 76.3% which turned heads. The Brexit Bill passed government approval also boosting the GBP and now awaits royal approval for the UK to formally leave the EU on January 31st. Australian Job numbers surprised to the upside Thursday after the official Unemployment Rate edged down to 5.1% from 5.2% and the participation number for December rose 28,900 based on consensus of 12,000. UK Manufacturing numbers close out the week and will be significant as they could be a determining factor on whether the Bank of England cut rates next week. The pair looks to make a run towards the 3.5 year daily close low of 0.5160 (1.9385) in the coming days.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5219 GBPAUD 1.9160
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5202- 0.5303 GBPAUD 1.8854- 1.9221

The British Pound (GBP) was a little stronger off the weekly open trading to 0.5270 (1.8965) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) which we see as surprising after softer UK Retail Sales initially weighed on the GBP. Odds are we could see interest for a rate cut increase at the end of the month. With just 10 days to go before the Britain leaves the EU we may see demand for the GBP on dips. Thursday’s Aussie jobs numbers will be the weekly highlight with the unemployment rate expected to remain unchanged at 5.2%. We think a retest of the 2020 low at 0.5260 (1.9002) could come into play later this week.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5287 (1.8917)
Resistance: 0.5325 (1.9115)
Support: 0.5230 (1.8780)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5263-0.5329 (1.8766-1.9001)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) looked to test the late 2019 high of 0.5360 (1.8660) earlier in the week but stopped short at 0.5330 (1.8760) against the British Pound (GBP). A little support for the GBP as Brexit hopes of a year end trade deal pushed buyers back into the GBP to 0.5270 (1.8970). UK Consumer Price Index came in at 1.3% below expectations of 1.5%- this is down from the December 2019 1.5% with the largest contributions coming from housing, water gas and electricity with the lowest contributions coming from services and clothing. This will heighten expectations of a rate cut possibly by mid-year. UK Retail Sales will be the focus tonight.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5270 GBPAUD 1.8975
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5270- 0.5329 GBPAUD 1.8764- 1.8975

2019 price points…open 0.5600 (1.7860), close 0.5293 (1.8890), high 0.5695 (1.7555), low 0.5122 (1.9522)
After a short splurge to 0.5216 (1.9170) early in the year in the British Pound (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair, the GBP again is under pressure with price supporting the AUD to 0.5315 (1.8815). The pound continues to be influenced by last week’s downbeat comments from Governor Carney, along with uncertainty with trade talks. The Bank of England will be considering an interest rate cut at the next meeting on 31st January in an effort to weaken the Pound further to support any fallout in 2020 from Brexit plans. The next area of resistance for the cross is 0.5360 (1.8660) with UK CPI y/y to print tomorrow.
Exchange Rates:
Resistance: 0.5360 (1.9110)
Support: 0.5230 (1.8660)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5221-0.5327 (1.8771-1.9155)

Stats from last year’s trading in the Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) pair which may be of interest…2019 open 0.5600 (1.7860), close 0.5293 (1.8890), high 0.5695 (1.7555), low 0.5122 (1.9522). The Aussie Dollar continues to slide in 2020 with risk aversion amid thin markets. Conflicts between Iran and the US have spooked markets over the last few days with missiles being fired from Iraq targeting US based targets in Iran. After a big win for Boris Johnson mid-December the Pound has continued to weaken into 2020 as the 31 January deadline looms. After 31 January the EU and UK enters into a 11-month transition period to reach a comprehensive trade deal. EU’s Ursula von der Leyen warned it would be impossible to reach such a deal and priorities should be set. The real threat of a no deal scenario at the end of 2020 will be a continuing concern for financial markets this year. With no data out this week price is mostly dictated by risk mood influenced by conflicts raging between Iran and the US over the assassination over Qassem Soleimani.
Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5243 GBPAUD 1.9073
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5220- 0.5318 GBPAUD 1.8803- 1.9155

The Australian Dollar (AUD) hit a six month low against the British Pound (GBP) of 0.5122 (1.9525) Monday as the market digested the UK election result. Its trading back at 0.5227 (1.9131) after UK PM Boris Johnson mentioned the possibility of a “hard” Brexit. However with UK economic data proving resilient and potential for an RBA rate cut in February the AUD looks the weaker of the pair on this cross looking out into the New Year and we look for a return to retest 0.5120 (1.9530) over the next few weeks.
Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5221 GBPAUD 1.9153
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5122- 0.5232 GBPAUD 1.9113- 1.9523

Price this week in the Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) has been volatile as expected with price Tuesday moving from 0.5160 (1.9380) to 0.5280 (1.8950) this morning.
As I wrote this the UK are still cuing in poll lines. With results expected to come through shortly in what’s labeled as the most important vote in a generation. The recent majority held in recent poll results has shown a “safe” majority by the Conservatives, in reality results are expected to be much closer than expected. The expectation is still a GBP rally based on a Tores victory- retesting the previous low at 0.5160 (1.9380) and beyond looks possible.
Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5137 GBPAUD 1.9466
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5127- 0.5278 GBPAUD 1.8944- 1.9502

The British Pound (GBP) continues to break new ground against the Australian Dollar (AUD) reaching 0.5180 (1.9300) Tuesday. Broad based Aussie weakness and a mix of optimism surrounding a potential Conservsatisve Party win has lifted the Pound over the past couple of weeks. BJ headed to north-east London yesterday to target Labour “leave” seats in the final days of campaigning pre election. In BJ’s speech in Sunderland 61% voted to leave – “the labour party has let you down”- BJ said the alternative to voting Conservative was voting for further delays and division. Certainly this week’s data- UK monthly GDP could be overshadowed by elections headlines. We should see results come through early Friday morning NZT – the GBP will be extremely volatile.
Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5194 (1.9252)
Resistance: 0.5220 (1.9300)
Support: 0.5180 (1.9150)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5188-0.5290 (1.8895-1.9275)

After giving back most of last week’s gains against the Australian Dollar (AUD) early in the week to 0.5290 (1.8895) the British Pound (GBP) rallied strong to 0.5195 (1.9250) Friday outperforming. With a growing expectation that Brexit will get done and the Conservative’s well in front in the polls along with positive UK Manufacturing figures the Pound has had a good week. The RBA left rates unchanged at 0.75% Tuesday with the board saying they will continue to monitor economic developments. Aussie GDP for the third quarter came in at 0.4% from the 0.5% expected, Trade Balance and Retail Sales was both poor dropping the value of the AUD. The pair sits at a June 16 (Brexit) low with the GBP expected to improve further around 12 December elections.
Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5192 GBPAUD 1.9260
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5188- 0.5291 GBPAUD 1.8897- 1.9275

The British Pound (GBP) gave back most of last week’s gains retreating to 0.5270 (1.8970) against the Australian Dollar (AUD). Overnight polls are suggesting things are not going the way of the Conservative Party as Labour close the gap. There seems to be growing support for Labour. Risk sentiment improved during Monday’s trading sessions the Aussie taking full advantage of better than expected Chinese Manufacturing data. All eyes will be on today’s RBA cash rate and Monetary Policy announcement with no change expected from the 0.75%. On the chart we have solid resistance at 0.5290 (1.8900) levels as price hovers over the 50 day moving average.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5273 (1.8964)
Resistance: 0.5290 (1.9050)
Support: 0.5250 (1.8900)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5222-0.5286 (1.8919-1.9151)

The English Pound (GBP) has led the way this week against the Australian Dollar (AUD) entering new territory to 0.5220 (1.9150) a fresh June 2016 level. Recent polls have suggested the gap between parties has widened again with the Conservatives out in front. The Pound continues to hold up well with the worst of Brexit priced out and markets preferring a Conservative (Tories) lead. No data this week in the UK has meant we have focused on Construction Work Done and Private Capital Expenditure in Australia. The later showed a decline of 0.6% for the September quarter, this was lower than the June quarter figures of 0.8% and highlights a weakening business sector. Next week calendar is huge which includes the RBA cash rate and UK Manufacturing. It’s hard to see a momentum shift in the cross over the next few days.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5239 GBPAUD 1.9087
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5223- 0.5292 GBPAUD 1.8893- 1.9145

The chop continues this week in the British Pound (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair with price reversing all of Friday’s moves from 0.5290 (1.8900) to 0.5250 (1.9040) Tuesday. The Pound initially took on water on pre-election nerves and softer UK PMI prints. Trading back close to recent lows at 0.5235 (1.9100) it’s hard to see the Aussie holding firm ahead of this pivotal area. With no UK data this week we focus on Aussie Construction Work Done for the third quarter and Private capital Expenditure. With the Tories in the driver’s seat we could see further support in the GBP develop and 51’s over the coming days.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5250 (1.9047)
Resistance: 0.5290 (1.9080)
Support: 0.5240 (1.8900)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5241-0.5294 (1.8889-1.9079

Another choppy week in Pound crosses sees the Australian Dollar (AUD), English Pound (GBP) bounce around the 0.5260 (1.90) region. Following last week’s push higher the GBP has managed to hold onto gains as it eyes 0.5235 (1.9100) huge resistance of five weeks ago. In the first leaders debate Thursday between BJ and Corbyn Johnson promised to take the UK out of the EU by January 31st by securing a new trade deal by the end of 2020. We have heard it all before- like last week. At the RBA minutes Lowe said he was prepared to ease policy further is needed. The board agreed and said a “case could be made” for a cut at the December 3 meeting. Weakness in the Aussie stemming from recent poor employment data still holds true and continues to impact price. If Brexit can sort itself, we could see 0.5000 (2.000) come into play before too long.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5254 GBPAUD 1.9033
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5241-0.5288 GBPAUD 1.8911- 1.9078

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to be dragged lower into Tuesday against the British Pound (GBP) to 0.5260 (1.9020) on positive UK headlines and recent Aussie employment data still weighing heavy. Weekend comments from Boris Johnson suggested that he has support from every Conservative Party (Tory) member pledging to support his Brexit deal led to GBP support. Looking ahead the only standout this week for the cross is today’s RBA 5 November monetary policy minutes. A break below 0.5240 (1.9090) the June 2016 referendum low could spell further strength for the Pound heading into the 12 December election.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5256 (1.9025)
Resistance: 0.5426 (1.9200)
Support: 0.5210 (1.8430)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5248-0.5341 (1.8723-1.9055)

Despite setbacks in UK prelim quarterly GDP and Manufacturing Production the English Pound has climbed higher off the open against the struggling Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.5320 (1.8800). With the latest false alarm that trade tariffs would be pulled back on Chinese imported products the Aussie has been a tad sensitive to developments. Both NAB Business Confidence and Westpac Consumer Sentiment will give us an overall gauge of the economy prior to crucial jobs data Thursday. With jobs data and unemployment expected to be positive we think a retest of the four week high of 0.5395 (1.8540) could be retested.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5324 (1.8779)
Resistance: 0.5375 (1.8880)
Support: 0.5300 (1.8610)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5316-0.5392 (1.8547-1.8810)

Westpac Consumer Sentiment offered a moment of relief for the Australian Dollar (AUD) midweek but with poor Aussie jobs data price has only travelled one way. Starting the week around the 0.5360 (1.8650) area the British Pound has rallied into Friday to 0.5265 (1.8990) Australian Unemployment rose from 5.3% to 5.2% and the level of new people entering the workforce in October was down -19,000 from 16,200 markets were expecting. All in all the jobs data still represents solid growth but markets saw this another way. The UK are still consumed by Brexit headlines around the 12 December election with news that Farage had said he wouldn’t fight the ruling Conservatives thus increasing the chances of the Tories winning the election and getting Brexit across the line. The longer trade negotiations are held up the further detrimental this is for the Australian economy- with recent media telling stories of a stalemate position between the two sides amid uncertainty the AUD will continue to struggle. 0.5240 (1.9080) could be retested in the coming days.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5266 GBPAUD 1.8989
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5257- 0.5364 GBPAUD 1.8642- 1.9021

Developments overnight took the GBP lower against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.5380 (1.8570) continuing the decline over the last four weeks. The RBA left rates unchanged Tuesday as the 0.75% predicted with Lowe saying several key economic indicators have suggested further easing may not be required in this cycle. The Bank of England also met overnight maintaining its 0.75% cash rate setting the inflation target at 2.0% which should assist to support employment and growth. The committee voted 7-2 to maintain the rate. On the chart we see further support for the Aussie leading into the 12 Dec snap election.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5373 GBPAUD 1.8611
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5338- 0.5392 GBPAUD 1.8545- 1.8733

The British Pound (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair got off to a slow start Monday with price hovering around the 0.5350 (1.8700) as markets hone in on a big week of data. This week we have a double whammy of central bank activity with both the Bank of England and RBA to announce cash rates and monetary policy statements. The RBA is later today at 4.30 NZT just prior to the Melbourne Cup and is not expected to lower the rate from 0.75%. Consensus is similar with the BoE also not expected to move from the current 0.75%. If RBA’s Lowe strikes a positive chord with investors we could see the cross target the three week high of 0.5360 (1.8650) and later 0.5420 (1.8440). Movement in the cross relating to Brexit may be limited though to the 12 December election result.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5345 (1.8709)
Resistance: 0.5360 (1.9000)
Support: 0.5260 (1.8660)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5317-0.5362 (1.8649-1.8808)

For the third week straight the Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) has remained range bound with the pair entering Friday sessions around 0.5325 (1.8780). This week in Brexit land the UK were supposed to exit the EU on the deadline of 31st October, but this never happened. Instead an extension has been granted by the EU until 31 January 2020. Before then we will see a UK general election on December 12. So to summarise – the people of the UK vote to leave the European Union nearly three and a half years ago and it still hasn’t happened. Gosh, what a disaster with Brexit still remaining extremely divided. Brexit related movement/volatility won’t happen again until we get clarity from the election result. Australian quarterly CPI edged the Aussie higher on the Wednesday release but failed to extend and regain early October losses. With the third quarter results coming in on estimates we should see further cuts by the RBA put on hold at next week’s cash rate meeting.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5321 GBPAUD 1.8793
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5305- 0.5363 GBPAUD 1.8646- 1.8850

Confined to a tight trading range of between 0.5280 (1.8930) and 0.5330 (1.8750) over the past nine days the British Pound (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD) has taken a break from regular volatility. Focus this week will be on UK parliament voting to decide the government’s election motion. The decision to extend Brexit to the 31st of January has been agreed by Johnson this morning, with Johnson requesting the EU to guarantee no further Brexit extensions past 31 January but this is seen as a longshot. Aussie CPI and later Building Approvals publish and should offer a break outside the recent range. Certainly the Pound looks to be in the driver’s seat over the coming days and could make a fresh run towards 0.5235 (1.9100)

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5318 (1.8804)
Resistance: 0.5335 (1.8930)
Support: 0.5280 (1.8750)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5283-0.5336 (1.8741-1.8928)

After a couple of weeks of massive volatility in the British Pound (GBP) the currency has taken a breather this week not only against the Australian Dollar but across most currency combinations. Confined this week to a range between 0.5285 (1.8926) and 0.5335 (1.8750) markets await further ques from Brexit headlines. Johnson has said he will give MP’s longer time to consider his Brexit deal if they agree with his proposal of a 12 December election. Johnson would prefer a shortened postponement to around the 30th of November. Corbyn reacted by saying “take no-deal off the table and we will absolutely support a general election”. France’s Macron is opposed to a lengthy extension out to 31 January and would prefer a short turn around in order to keep the pressure on a deal being completed. With no significant data releases this week and nothing solid coming from Brexit we look ahead to next week’s CPI and Building Approvals. If we get a weekly close below 0.5310 (1.8825) we could be in for further Aussie downside bias.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5305 GBPAUD 1.8850
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5282- 0.5333 GBPAUD 1.8749- 1.8931

The British Pound (GBP) surged to new levels last week against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.5240 (1.9090) a 40 month low, last seen during the Brexit Referendum in June 2016. Gapping a massive distance off the Monday open was looking like a real possibility with voting expected to take place over the weekend, instead voting was held in the Letwin agreement- winning by a vote of 322-306. The agreement gives parliament more time to consider the deal Johnson has presented. At this stage there has been no response from the EU to Johnsons letters with no certainty that the EU will actually grant a Brexit extension. A quiet week on the economic calendar should see Brexit lead the way with direction. Markets are still pricing in a positive Brexit result.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level:0.5294 (1.8889)
Resistance: 0.5370 (1.9090)
Support: 0.5240 (1.8620)
Last Weeks Range:0.5238-0.5398 (1.8526-1.9090)

The British Pound (GBP) extended its run higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) this week posting fresh historic low of 0.5240 (1.9090) last seen during the June 2016 UK Brexit referendum. Even though UK CPI y/y released lower at 1.7% this never factored into price momentum with Brexit clearly the focus. The Australian unemployment rate has fallen to 5.2% from 5.3% the first drop in seven months when it peaked at 4.9%. 14,700 new jobs were added to the economy in September spurred on mostly by full time employment. Markets purchased back the Aussie into Friday post release, but price was shifty with Brexit holding most of the attention. It appears the chances of a Brexit deal prior to the 31st October deadline are improving by the hour with Johnson and the European Union striking a revised deal. The agreement still must be agreed formally by the EU and then ratified by European and most importantly the UK Parliament. For now, we think price may hold around the 0.5300 (1.8860) level until further solid Brexit news is released.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5307 GBPAUD 1.8843
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5238- 0.5400 GBPAUD 1.8518- 1.9090

The British Pound (GBP) strengthened another leg higher late Friday against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.5353 (1.8680) and has continued its run into the new week posting 0.5345 (1.8714) a May 2019 low, as positive Brexit talks continue. Lead negotiator Barnier got the nod to discuss preliminary drafts of the revised deal. Both sides are keen to get a deal agreed before the EU summit on Thursday, if this happens the government will introduce a withdrawal agreement bill which will need to be voted in. Price dropping back towards 0.5360 (1.8660) into Tuesday. On the economic calendar this week we have RBA monetary minutes today and UK CPI y/y as well as crucial Australian employment figures Thursday. Brexit headlines I suspect will dominate movement.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5370 (1.8622)
Resistance: 0.5410 (1.8800)
Support: 0.5320 (1.8480)
Last Weeks Range:0.5344-0.5532 (1.807-1.8711)

The British Pound (GBP) traded into negative territory this week against the Australian Dollar (AUD) dropping down to 0.5530 (1.8090) into Friday. News of a potential Brexit agreement to be negotiated prior to 31 October rallied the GBP to 0.5435 (1.8400) reversing the last fortnights losses in one foul swoop. Monthly GDP was a non-event after the Brexit headlines coming in at -0.1% from 0.0% markets were expecting. UK manufacturing was also down at -0.7% based on predictions of 0.1% and falling 0.4% over the past 4 months. Next week’s Brexit news will be the main focus with Australian employment figures to publish as well. The Pound will dominate over the next few days boosted by positive Brexit news; support is seen at 0.5315 (1.8820) which could be retested if things don’t go pear shaped in the UK.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5439 GBPAUD 1.8385
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5426- 0.5531 GBPAUD 1.8077- 1.8429

The British Pound (GBP) appreciated this week against the Australian Dollar (AUD) reaching 0.5430 (1.8420) before falling back Friday to 0.5460 (1.8320). A revised Brexit agreement would need to commit to avoiding customs checks and infrastructure at the borders between Northern Ireland and Ireland as this is something Ireland won’t agree to. UK Services sector data disappointed overnight with a contraction in September of 49.5 after 50.3 was predicted signalling only the fifth time in over a decade the number has been below 50.0. The alarming thing for the UK is that they also have manufacturing also in contraction, with Brexit all ahead this doesn’t paint a healthy economic picture. The RBA cut their overnight cash rate on Tuesday from 1.0% to 0.75% in efforts to boost economic growth with Lowe saying he needed full employment and targeted inflation. The Aussie remains bearish with lingering global trade tensions having continued negative impact on China /Australia dependant imports. A retest of recent low of 0.5405 (1.8500) looks the most likely outcome for the moment in the cross.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5465 GBPAUD 1.8298
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5426- 0.5514 GBPAUD 1.8133- 1.8427

The Australian Dollar (AUD) regained momentum over the British Pound recovering back to 0.5500 (1.8160) at the weekly close. Price hasn’t shifted far this week as markets await the upcoming RBA announcement. We are expecting Boris Johnson to submit written proposals to the EU sometime this week to fix his current plan for the Irish border. Barnier said to media they were ready to work on any new legal and operational proposals on Brexit from Britain. Markets have priced in an 80% chance of a rate cut at today’s meeting. Over the past couple of months analysts had lost interest in pricing in an October cut but with recent jobs data coming in soft and inflation forecasts under the pump this has changed. We can’t see how the Aussie will go much higher than 0.5500 (1.8180) this week.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5496 (1.8195)
Resistance: 0.5510 (1.8480)
Support: 0.5410 (1.8150)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5432-0.5510 (1.815-1.8408)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended earlier week gains against the British Pound (GBP) to the 0.5490 (1.8220) level as risk markets and fresh weakness in the GBP supported the AUD. No news is good news this week for the Aussie with no local data publishing. RBA’s Lowe spoke earlier in the week and suggested that the economy is at a “gentle turning point” and gave no real hint that further cuts were on the horizon. This is interesting to note with some banks bringing forwards their cut expectations from November to next Tuesday’s meeting. Watch this space. Boris Johnson has been given word he must submit written proposals to the EU within the next few days to fix his current plan for the Irish border. Barnier said to media they were ready to work on any new legal and operational proposals on Brexit from Britain. We think the Pound could weaken off further over the coming week as it heads for 0.5510 (1.8140) resistance.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5480 GBPAUD 1.8248
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5422- 0.5492 GBPAUD 1.8205- 1.8443

The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovered some of last week’s losses against the British Pound (GBP) climbing from the 2019 low of 0.5405 (1.8500) back to 0.5450 (1.8340) as risk markets supported the AUD along with fresh weakness in the Pound. Johnson is set to meet with EU officials this week, the hot topic will be the Irish Backstop, but he still remains defiant over the idea of extending the deadline. Governor Lowe speaks later today and Bank of England Governor Carney also is speaking later in the week. With no data in the pair this week focus will turn to central bank comments. With Australian Banks bringing forward their cut expectations to possibly next week from November things look to heat up. Slowly but surely the Pound gains the long term edge over the Aussie, with price now eyeing 0.5300 (1.8870) the multi-year low last seen during the GBP crash during the 2016 Brexit referendum vote.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5445 (1.8365)
Resistance: 0.5480 (1.8480)
Support: 0.5410 (1.8250)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5407-0.5502 (1.8111-1.8495)

The English Pound has surged higher during the course of the week to reach a new high of 1.8470 (0.5415) against the Australian Dollar. This is the lowest level for the Aussie since May of this year. Australian jobs data released up on expectations with an additional 22,000 people added to the workforce but it was the unemployment rate rising to 5.3% from 5.2% which markets focused on pulled the Aussie lower into Friday. The Bank of England (BoE) left rates unchanged overnight in a 0-9 unanimous vote by central bank members. Massive uncertainty still remains for the world’s 5th largest economy heading into the 31 October Brexit deadline. Sterling was broadly unchanged on the news. The bank of England however made it clear that another delay to Brexit could lead to much further economic weakness. Boris Johnson has promised to deliver Brexit on 31st October “come what may”. Less uncertainty with Brexit suggests the Pound may get a lot stronger.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5411 GBPAUD 1.8480
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5412- 0.5540 GBPAUD 1.8050- 1.8475

The Australian Dollar (AUD) closed the week around 0.5500 (1.8170) against the British Pound off the back of optimistic Brexit news, but on Monday’s open the run lower ended when a Saudi Arabian oil field was drone bombed by Iran denting market sentiment with investors diving for the safe haven. The Aussie retraced back to 0.5540 (1.8050) on the news and continues to trade around this level into Tuesday. Boris is confident he will be able to get a deal across the line prior to the 31st October deadline with recent moves by parliament to block a no deal Brexit. EU lawmakers will vote to change the Irish backstop so it only applies to Northern Island looks to be one of the possible breakthroughs in the negotiating process. If indeed a deal can be struck prior to the deadline of which is voted in as law the GBP will certainly go through the roof. It’s a busy week for the pair with the Bank of England cash rate announcement Thursday followed by their monetary policy statement. No change is expected from the 0.75%. English Retail Sales is first with Aussie jobs data publishing early Thursday.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5516 (1.8129)
Resistance: 0.5540 (1.8250)
Support: 0.5480 (1.8050)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5495-0.5593 (1.7879-1.8197)

The British Pound (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD) remained within recent ranges over the week bouncing around the 0.5565 (1.7970) area. New headlines are suggesting that Boris Johnson misled the Queen and voters. Scottish appeal judges have ruled that he unlawfully prorogued parliament to allow any proper time to go over the current Brexit strategy. The Speaker of the House John Bercow said he must now obey the law and request a Brexit extension. Michael Barnier the top EU negotiator said yesterday there were no credible reasons why they would reopen formal negotiations over the Irish Backstop and Boris Johnson’s officials were yet to see any decent Brexit plan on which the UK and EU could build on. Given the chances of a no deal Brexit looks reasonably safe the chances are high of a possible referendum and or general election. Once referendum or general elections are announced this will see the Pound bullish. The majority who voted “leave” would vote stay which would be extremely good for the Pound. The calendar looks busy next week with Aussie employment data publishing and the UK official cash rate and statement.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5570 GBPAUD 1.7953
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5536- 0.5604 GBPAUD 1.7842- 1.8062

The British Pound was boosted Monday to 0.5550 (1.8030) off the back of better than forecast UK GDP for July publishing at 0.3% from 0.1%. The UK Index of Production also rose by 0.1% from June 2019 to July with manufacturing chipping in the biggest contribution of 0.3%. With only NAB Business confidence printing over the remainder of the week attention will lie with Brexit developments. The probability of brexit taking place is now around 55% and the chance of a no deal brexit has dropped to 20% with no Brexit at all at 25%. Lawmakers are now debating whether Boris Johnson will indeed follow a new law blocking a no deal Brexit. Another choppy week in the AUDGBP pair with high volatility suggests price may pivot around the current 0.5555 (1.8000)

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5559 (1.7988)
Resistance: 0.5600 (1.8100)
Support: 0.5525 (1.7860)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5522-0.5620 (1.7794-1.8110)

It’s been a game of two halves this week in the British Pound (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD) with early week supporting the AUD on data and recently Brexit developments supporting the Pound. After reaching 0.5620 (1.7800) levels the Aussie retreated back to the weekly open at 0.5530 (1.8090) Friday. The RBA left rates unchanged at 1.0% and left scope for further easing if economic factors saw the need. The GBP has felt confident after this week’s voting saw hopes of an early election canned as well as a disorderly no deal Brexit. Boris will need to comply with the voting result that will see him needing to ask the EU for a three month extension. He said earlier today he would rather be “dead in a ditch” than to ask for an extension. Looking ahead focus on the data front lies with the Non-Farm Payroll release tomorrow. Analysis are starting to suggest the GBP could be starting to turn positive with the no deal Brexit bill expected to be passed by tonight, but its early days.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5526 GBPAUD 1.8096
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5518- 0.5620 GBPAUD 1.7792-1.8110

Crazy volatility this week in the British Pound (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected as MP’s return to their desks after summer break. Trading around 0.5570 (1.7950) Tuesday the GBP has fallen out of favour already this week with Johnson saying this morning he would table a motion to hold a general election if MP’s opposed a no-deal Brexit. Tory and Labour are collaborating to bring in a bill designed to stop the UK leaving on the 31st October with no agreement. UK Manufacturing index declined to 47.4 from the predicted 48.0 showing a seven year low as economic and political uncertainty has tainted growth in manufacturing during August. Today the RBA announces their cash rate announcement, widely expected to remain at 1.0% through to November. The central bank has made it clear they will act if they need to, we should get more signs today around timing. Aussie GDP prints tomorrow for the June quarter with expectations of a solid result. We expect price to favour GBP weakness this week and a possible retest of 0.5645 (1.7720)

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5565 (1.7969)
Resistance: 0.5645 (1.8250)
Support: 0.5480 (1.7710)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5484-0.5580 (1.7922-1.8234)

Another volatile week in the British Pound (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross with more Brexit headlines dominating. The British Pound rallied to 0.5450 (1.8340) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) off Monday’s open but the move was short lived when Trump reported China wanted to re- continue trade talks boosting market mood and sending the Pound sharply lower to 0.5540 (1.8040). Given the changeable nature of the Brexit process we see further downside in the Aussie leading into the 31 October deadline. Next week on the economic docket we have the RBA cash rate announcement- no change expected along with second quarter GDP and Retail Sales. On the Pound side, manufacturing PMI Monday will be in focus. Direction is tough to gauge but we certainly should see further declines in the Pound leading up to the 31 October exit.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5508 GBPAUD 1.8155
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5453- 0.5551 GBPAUD 1.8015- 1.8337

EU Advisor to the UK prime minister David Frost will meet this week to discuss alternatives to May’s Brexit plan in Brussels on Wednesday. Obviously there is still hope to avoid a no Brexit deal despite ongoing disappointments from Johnson. The British Pound rallied to 0.5450 (1.8340) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) off Monday’s open but the move was short lived when Trump reported China wanted to re- continue trade talks boosting market mood and sending the Pound sharply lower to 0.5540 (1.8040). Given the changeable nature of the Brexit process we see further downside in the Aussie leading into the 31 October deadline. Later this week Australian Building Approvals may offer AUD support if we see a positive reading.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5541 (1.8045)
Resistance: 0.5570 (1.8250)
Support: 0.5480 (1.7950)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5455-0.5617 (1.7802-1.8332)

The AUD/GBP tracked lower overnight as the GBP was buoyed by more positive Brexit news from UK PM Johnson’s meeting with German Chancellor Merkel. Also undermining the AUD were yesterday’s weaker Aussie economic data for PMI services and manufacturing data. Currently sitting around 0.5516 (1.8130) look for this cross to test back to the 0.5490 level, however given the changeable nature of the Brexit process we remain mildly bullish for the AUD on this cross and look for a move back to the 0.5550/60 level.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5513 GBPAUD 1.8138
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5508 – 0.5623 GBPAUD 1.7785 – 1.8154

Recent focus around an extension past the 31 October Brexit deadline has buoyed the British Pound over the past few days against the Australian Dollar Tuesday to 0.5580 (1.7930). Despite market uncertainty associated with Brexit the GBP has recently welcomed upbeat data with CPI y/y and positive quarterly Retail Sales which may hold the Pound in good form heading towards the Brexit deadline of 31 October. Boris Johnson has written to the EU council’s Tusk to outline his distaste to the Irish border plan. Jeremy Corbyn is staunchly opposed to a “no deal” Brexit and is doing everything he can to stop it from becoming a reality. He plans to call a no confidence vote in the hope of defeating a “no deal” outcome. If he wins this will delay the 31 October exit from the EU when he will call for a snap election and campaign for another referendum. The bearish channel suggests price could continue towards 0.5550 (1.8000) this week.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5572 (1.7946)
Resistance: 0.5600 (1.8040)
Support: 0.5545 (1.7850)
Last Months Range: 0.5570-0.5648 (1.7706-1.7954)

The Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) cross has swung this week between a tight range of 0.5580 (1.7920) and 0.5645 (1.7715) even though it’s been a busy week of economic data for the pair. The focus was Aussie employment with wage price inflation improving to 0.6% from 0.5% for the quarter to June as well as an increase to the number of new people employed which rose from a flat 500 in June to 41,000 in July after an expected 15,000 was predicted. The unemployment rate stayed at 5.2% since rising in March from 5.0%. UK Retail Sales rose unexpectedly to 0.2% based on predictions of -0.3% highlighting consumers were still spending, the Pound spiked on the release improving 50 points. In Brexit news Corbyn plans to call a no confidence vote in the hope of defeating a “no deal” outcome. If he wins this will delay the 31 October exit from the EU when he will call for a snap election and campaign for another referendum.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5608 GBPAUD 1.7831
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5575- 0.5648 GBPAUD 1.7704- 1.7936

Risk aversion continues to play a part in currency movements this week, the British Pound (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD) reaching a fresh low of 0.5495 (1.8200). The Aussie weirdly followed downside moves by the kiwi after the RBNZ Wednesday dropped their cash rate 50 basis points from 1.50% to 1.0%. I can’t remember this ever happening quite to the degree it did with price shifting over 45 points in sympathy. Volatility this week has been extreme, last night’s high of 0.5620 (1.7795) coming back into play with Johnson telling MP’s to “get on and deliver” Brexit. This comes amid reports a general election could happen within days of the UK leaving the EU on October 31st. MP’s are also working on a counter deal to try to stop Johnson from taking Britain out of the EU after concerns of his hard-line tactics. The RBA announced Tuesday they were keeping the benchmark cash rate at 1.0% with the global outlook remaining questionable and inflation expectations low. This had very little impact on the Aussie dollar movement after the release. An easing bias still remains for the RBA with expectations of further cuts expected based on a “if needed” scenario. UK GDP m/m and Manufacturing figures will release tomorrow morning.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5612 GBPAUD 1.7819
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5493- 0.5618 GBPAUD 1.7797- 1.8205

The English Pound has surged higher off last week’s price of 0.5690 (1.7570) to 0.5570 (1.7950) after reaching 0.5550 (1.8030) Monday versus the Australian Dollar (AUD). Risk aversion is playing a part here after President Trump accused the Chinese of currency manipulation to offset some of the pain inflicted by Trump’s tariffs on incoming Chinese products. UK Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) printed above market expectations at 51.4 versus 50.4 the index improving for the UK services sector supporting the fastest business growth since October 2018 contributing 80% of GDP to the UK economy. Stockpiling of essentials and companied pre ordering in light of a Brexit was a factor in the pick up. Today’s RBA cash rate announcement (4.30NZT) and monetary policy statement is the main focus this week as investors take upcoming AUD direction tips from Lowe’s comments on further easing.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5582 (1.7915)
Resistance: 0.5695 (1.8030)
Support: 0.5550 (1.7560)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5547-0.5694 (1.7562-1.8028)

The English Pound (GBP) outperformed during the overnight trading European session against the Australian Dollar (AUD) pushing price to 0.5590 (1.7890) before price retraced to 0.5610 (1.7820) The Bank of England left their cash rate unchanged at 0.75% in a 0-9 vote. Even with upwardly forecasted inflation and growth forecasts the BoE made it clear they would not be shifting rates anytime soon. If anything was to come out of the monetary statement it was perhaps slightly hawkish. They said they could in fact raise rates on the event of a no Brexit outcome saying “the monetary response to Brexit whatever form it takes, will not be automatic and could be in the other direction. This view comes directly opposing recent analysts predictions. The Bank of England have also set their inflation target at a reasonable 2.0% to help sustain growth and employment. Despite the small spike higher in the Pound over BoE speak let’s not forget the pair is still trading just off the yearly low bringing our attention to the fact the Pound still has a steep road ahead for any significant recovery.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5605 GBPAUD 1.7841
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5591- 0.5674 GBPAUD 1.7623- 1.7885

Overnight weakness in the English Pound (GBP) has seen price move considerably higher off the weekly open of 0.5580 (1.7920) to 0.5645 (1.7712) Tuesday against the Australian Dollar (AUD). The Pound giving back all of last week’s gains in one trading session. Boris Johnson is adamant he will not meet with EU officials to resolve the Brexit standoff unless they drop the Irish backstop from further negotiations. He stated he will do whatever it takes to get Brexit over the line but won’t back down on not removing the backstop. The 2018 EU withdrawal Act suggests a Brexit deal without the backstop is unacceptable. Not sure How BJ is thinking of getting around this. 1.7630 is the yearly high in the pair- I would suggest further weakness in the Pound is almost a given over the next while and this resistance level will be tested. Stay tuned for Thursday’s Bank of England Cash Rate announcement where the current rate of 0.75% will remain in place.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5653 (1.7689)
Resistance: 0.5670 (1.8030)
Support: 0.5550 (1.7630)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5560-0.5659 (1.7671-1.7984)

Boris Johnson is the new Prime Minister of the UK. Pressure has been taken off the English Pound (GBP) for now with a little more certainty entering the picture. The Brexit train wreck however will continue with Johnson speaking last night saying he will work flat out to make a deal with crucial evidence suggesting other arrangements could be possible to fix the Irish Border. He is ready and waiting to discuss a deal with the EU suggesting all ministers are committed to leaving on the 31st October whatever happens. RBA governor Lowe staunchly defended his mandate for a 2-3% inflation target but said rates will stay low for some time leaving chances of further rate cuts to come- data dependant. The Australian Dollar (AUD) underperformed this week dropping from the open price of 0.5640 (1.7730) to 0.5580 (1.7920) against the Pound (GBP) moving away from recent range bound consolidation action. Price overnight rejected 0.5560 (1.7980) suggesting further downside GBP momentum could continue into next week.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5577 GBPAUD 1.7930
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5560- 0.5659 GBPAUD 1.7670- 1.7984

Choppy, directionless price action has been the dominant feature of the AUDGBP cross over the past week. The pair has bounced between a low of 0.5623 and a high of 0.5672 in what looks suspiciously like a period of consolidation within the longer-term uptrend. Tonight should see the UK confirm Boris Johnson as the next Prime Minister, so at least some political uncertainty will be taken off the table. Unfortunately for the Pound Sterling (GBP) the real concerns are around Brexit and it’s far less certain what’s going to happen there. It’s hard to see any meaningful Pound Sterling (GBP) gains until something concrete comes out of potential negations between Boris and his European counterparts. So for now the risks remain toward further strength in the AUDGBP developing over the coming week.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5637 (1.7740)
Resistance: 0.5750 (1.7794)
Support: 0.5620 (1.7391)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5620-0.5672 (1.7631-1.7793)

The Australian dollar (AUD) has completely outperformed the Pound Sterling (GBP) over the past week, in a continuation of the trend that has been in place for much of the past two months. The latest gains were sparked by the dovish testimony from US Fed Chair Powell that saw the AUD make gains across most other currencies during the ensuing USD weakness. The Australian dollar than found more support yesterday after some solid Chinese activity data was released. The pair currently trades at the best levels since December 2018, around 0.5625. Today’s RBA minutes will be closely watched as will Thursday’s Australian employment report. On the GBP side of the equation it’s pretty hard to get excited about any potential near term strength in the Pound with so much political and Brexit uncertainty about. For the time being, the risks remain skewed toward further gains in the AUDGBP. A move toward 0.5750 over the coming weeks can’t be ruled out.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5623 (1.7785)
Resistance: 0.5780 (1.8100)
Support: 0.5525 (1.7300)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5544-0.5629 (1.7766-1.8038)

The Australian dollar (AUD) has lost a little ground to the UK Pound (GBP) this week, driven lower by declining Australian consumer sentiment and business confidence. The being said, the longer term trend is certainly in the Australian dollars favour and this weeks price action has done little to dent that. We may well just be in a period of consolidation within that longer term bullish trend. Any move back above 0.5602 would be a positive sign and the focus would then shift to resistance around 0.5675. On the downside there is support around 0.5525 and as long as the market holds above that level the risks remain skewed toward further gains for the pair.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5566 GBPAUD 1.7966
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5543 – 0.5599 GBPAUD 1.7860 – 1.8040

The Australian dollar (AUD) as completely outperformed the UK Pound (GBP) over recent weeks and while the gains seem to have stalled since late last week, we think this is a temporary period of consolidation. With disappointing UK data signalling a potential economic slowdown in the months ahead, along with the current political and Brexit uncertainty, the risk are all skewed toward further AUDGBP gains. Any break above 0.5600 would be a bullish signal and the focus would then turn to resistance around 0.5780, which is a viable target over the coming month or two.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5568 (1.7961)
Resistance: 0.5600 (1.8051)
Support: 0.5540 (1.7857)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5507-0.5601 (1.7853-1.8158)

The Australian Dollar has outperformed the British Pound this week with price travelling to 0.5600 (1.7880). The RBA cut their benchmark cash rate for the second straight month from 1.25% to 1.0% Wednesday. The first time back to back cuts have happened in seven years as the RBA tries to front foot ongoing slowing growth. The sole policy of every central bank in the world is asset price inflation by providing cheap money to stimulate growth and inflation. Australian Building Approvals along with Trade Balance have boosted the Aussie, the building industry remains stable for now. If risk sentiment stays upbeat, we may see a retest of the mid January 2019 low of 0.5680 (1.7600) enter play.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5583 GBPAUD 1.7911
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5503- 0.5601 GBPAUD 1.7853- 1.8171

The Australian Dollar (AUD) retraced lower off the multi week high of 0.5540 (1.8050) during the overnight sessions against the British Pound (GBP) trading back to 0.5510 (1.8150). Consensus suggests the RBA will deliver a dovish statement and cut their cash rate from 1.25% to 1.0% today at 4.30 NZT. The Reserve Bank of Australia look ready to deliver back to back cuts as they have recently signalled that easing policy will be needed to boost economic growth. Inflation dropped from 1.8% to an alarming 1.3.% in April and unemployment is starting to rise. However, the initial analysis on perceived further cuts was that the RBA would cut in August because the data wasn’t weak enough, this was said only a few days ago. Traditionally if this is anything to go off, the RBA has gone two moves- 3 months apart, if they stick to this we will see rates unchanged today. Price could go anywhere on the RBA announcement today. Buyers of GBP should consider at these levels and should consider locking in some exposure prior to today’s RBA. AUD Retail Sales releases Friday.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5513 (1.8139)
Resistance: 0.5540 (1.8215)
Support: 0.5490 (1.8050)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5445-0.5543 (1.8041-1.8365)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) retraced sharply higher off the weekly open to gain back support pushing through heavy resistance of 0.5520 (1.8120), the 4 June level, to post 0.5535 (1.8075) Friday lunch. Apart from Lowe’s comments Monday saying global risks has slowed with further risks skewed to the downside, it has been a fairly quiet week for data. Carney has been on the wires talking about a no deal Brexit scenario and the outcome in such an event, this has played on the GBP a tad with it falling away further overnight during the London trading session. Strong commodity prices have also held up the Aussie with Iron Ore reaching 109.00 per ton Thursday. Expect markets to turn risk averse once the G20 kicks off tonight.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5524 GBPAUD 1.8102
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5439- 0.5537 GBPAUD 1.8060- 1.8384

The British Pound (GBP) dropped on the Monday open to 0.5475 (1.8260) against the Australian Dollar (AUD). Lowe spoke Monday and continued to highlight global risks and rate cut forecasts. The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously 9-0 to maintain the cash rate at 0.75% in efforts to try and achieve their 2.0% inflation target with this helping to sustain growth and employment. Now that it’s been established who will face off in a bid to become the UK’s next Prime Minister we may see further buying in risk assets such as the AUD, the currency holding up recently on dips and could retest 0.5500 (1.8200) this week.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5463 (1.8305)
Resistance: 0.5490 (1.8420)
Support: 0.5430 (1.8220)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5427-0.5489 (0.5427-0.5489)

The British Pound trades just shy of the weekly open at 0.5450 (1.8345) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) with volatility bouncing around the cross this week. The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously 9-0 to maintain the cash rate at 0.75% in efforts to try and achieve their 2.0% inflation target with this helping to sustain growth and employment. Interestingly the BoE are the only central bank who are ignoring dropping global growth messages to cut as others are considering or have already cut. Its officially a two horse race for the next UK Prime Minister with just Johnson and Hunt fight it out. We think the Pound is still struggling, especially with renewed concerns of prospects for a hard Brexit with Johnson in charge. A retest of the prior high of 0.5520 (1.8120) is foreseeable before GBP gathers any pace.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5448 GBPAUD 1.8355
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5428- 0.5488 GBPAUD 1.8219- 1.8422

Momentum in the British Pound (GBP) over the past week has ground to a halt around 0.5440 (1.8380) with a fresh wave of selling overnight. The Australian Dollar and other crosses has an edge with the Pound under significant selling pressures. The Pound may come under further attacks and fail to find support based on a market which is preparing for the potential of a “no deal” brexit scenario on 31 October. Brexit uncertainty continues to fester in the background to the detriment of the Pound as Britain continues the process of choosing a new conservative leader. Johnson is well ahead of his nearest rival after the first set of voting and should cement his favoritism as the preferred Prime Minister tonight as the second round of voting takes place. Today’s RBA minutes ahead of Thursday’s (BoE) cash rate release hold key interest this week. Sellers of GBP should consider current levels around 0.5470 (1.8290) with uncertainty in the air things could get much worse in England.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5467 (1.8291)
Resistance: 0.5520 (1.8390)
Support: 0.5440 (1.8110)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5439-0.5491 (1.8210-1.8385)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has bounced off 0.5520 (1.8115) resistance against the British Pound over the past few days tracking back to 0.5485 (1.8230) Tuesday. Movement has been somewhat choppy Monday with Australia taking the day off to celebrate the Queen’s birthday. Last night’s GDP m/m published poor at -0.4% based on predictions of -0.1% showing weakening growth. Manufacturing Production also disappointed at -3.9% versus -1.1%, this is the largest fall since 2002 with motor vehicles leading the decline in numbers.
Overnight the UK Conservative Party have announced their 9 candidates to replace Theresa May with a new Prime Minister to be picked by July 22nd. The first vote will take place on the 13th June. The candidate with the least amount of support and any candidate with less than 5% or 16 votes will also be eliminated. June 18 will be second vote followed by a third on the 19th June and a fourth on the 20th June. This will take the total candidates to two. At this point voting my parliamentary members will start. This week’s Aussie employment change and unemployment rate will be the weekly focus with growth expected. This is a key indicator of whether the economy is on track to meet inflation targets.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5488 (1.8221)
Resistance: 0.5520 (1.8300)
Support: 0.5465 (1.8115)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5474-0.5519 (1.8119-1.8268)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has bounced off 0.5520 (1.8115) resistance against the British Pound over the past few days tracking back to 0.5485 (1.8230) Tuesday. Movement has been somewhat choppy Monday with Australia taking the day off to celebrate the Queen’s birthday. Last night’s GDP m/m published poor at -0.4% based on predictions of -0.1% showing weakening growth. Manufacturing Production also disappointed at -3.9% versus -1.1%, this is the largest fall since 2002 with motor vehicles leading the decline in numbers.
Overnight the UK Conservative Party have announced their 9 candidates to replace Theresa May with a new Prime Minister to be picked by July 22nd. The first vote will take place on the 13th June. The candidate with the least amount of support and any candidate with less than 5% or 16 votes will also be eliminated. June 18 will be second vote followed by a third on the 19th June and a fourth on the 20th June. This will take the total candidates to two. At this point voting my parliamentary members will start. This week’s Aussie employment change and unemployment rate will be the weekly focus with growth expected. This is a key indicator of whether the economy is on track to meet inflation targets.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5488 (1.8221)
Resistance: 0.5520 (1.8300)
Support: 0.5465 (1.8115)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5474-0.5519 (1.8119-1.8268)

The weaker AUD tone has seen the Aussie weaken against this cross over the last few days from a high of 0.5508 to a low of 0.5481, currently back at 0.5491 With Iron ore prices continuing to hold at higher levels the AUD will get some support and against the very uncertain Brexit developments , we favour the AUD on this cross ..a break of 0.5500 would initially target 0.5530.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5490 GBPAUD 1.8250
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 1.8116- 1.8245 GBPAUD 0.5480- 0.5520

The Australian dollar has outperformed the UK Pound (GBP) this week, driving the pair to a high so far of 0.5483 (low of 1.8237). The move has come on the back of GBP weakness as political turmoil in the UK weighs on the currency. The AUD on the other hand has been holding its ground reasonably well in the face of a potential RBA interest rate cut next week. That likelihood is now largely priced into the market, so while we will get some volatility around the release, we are not convinced that the AUD will sustain any major moves to the downside in the wake of a central bank interest rate cut. Iron ore prices also continue to look strong and that should help to provide support to the AUD on any potential dips. For the time being we suspect the risks remaining toward AUD outperformance of the GBP, and therefore a higher AUDGBP cross rate.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5780 GBPAUD 1.8248
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5439- 0.5488 GBPAUD 1.8220- 1.8384

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has continued its push higher against the British Pound (GBP) to a fresh four week high of 0.5460 (1.8320) UK Inflation published at 2.1% after 2.2% was predicted but this ends a three month period of inflation below the target 2.0%. The pickup from 1.9% was based on the government lifting the cap on energy caps with electricity rising 10%. Theresa May will stay in office until the 7th June when a replacement will be voted in starting on the 10th June. UK’s Hammond said the house of commons was strongly against leaving the EU without a deal. This week’s data focus is on Aussie Building Approvals for April and q/q Private Capital Expenditure a leading indicator of spending by private businesses a leading indicator of economic health.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5460 (1.8315)
Resistance: 0.5470 (1.8440)
Support: 0.5420 (1.8290)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5371-0.5465 (1.8297-1.8616)

The British Pound (GBP) sank lower throughout the week to 0.5450 (1.8350) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as the Brexit roller coaster lingered. Brexit concerns have weighed on the Pound again with the two main parties failing to find a common ground with which to move forward. May’s imminent departure seems real now with an announcement to be made later today. The PM is expected to agree with the Tory MP’s that a new contest for leadership will begin on the 10th of June. May has been under enormous pressure following the backlash from her own MP’s following her “new deal” Brexit plan. UK yearly CPI came in at 2.1% down on the 2.2% expected with upward pressures on auto fuel prices as well as the govt lifting the government cap on default energy tariffs. The RBA minutes Tuesday reflected weak inflationary pressures, the RBA finally realising after poor recent employment data the economy is slowing. This in turn should see a cut to the cash rate at the June 4 meeting with possibly another cut to follow later in the year. UK Retail Sales prints tonight.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5438 GBPAUD 1.8389
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5372- 0.5458 GBPAUD 1.8320- 1.8615

Against all odds the AUD continues to hold firm on this cross as the GBP continues to get slammed by the ongoing Brexit train wreck…Has opened the week gapping higher after the unexpected Aussie election result at 0.5417 and is now trading around 0.5430…Looks solid but any change in RBA outlook on earlier rate cuts will put pressure back on AUD even with Brexit woes for the GBP…however with 0.5400 broken a push towards the 0.5450 mark now looks possible.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5434 (1.8402)
Resistance: 0.5465 (1.8700)
Support: 0.5350 (1.8300)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5343-0.5405 (1.8500-1.8715)

With the Brexit political chaos continuing in the UK, the AUD has outperformed on this cross (about the only one !) over the week from a low of 0.5344 to a 0.5405 high…now sitting around 0.5386 should hold around current levels ahead of the election , with any clear majority result for either party being AUD supportive next week, but attention will then shift to RBA rate cut potential…given continued UK political turmoil , look for another test of the 0.5400 level.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5384 GBPAUD 1.8573
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5343 – 0.5404 GBPAUD 1.8504 – 1.8716

Despite UK Manufacturing and Business Investment readings releasing higher than expectations, the British Pound (GBP) peeled off against the Australian Dollar (AUD) over the week from a low of 0.5300 (1.8870) to 0.5383 (1.8577) at the close. Even a risk of market mood couldn’t help the Pound regain some of the previous few weeks gains. Overnight the Pound took a turn for the worse, May’s Brexit deal is under siege once again with Tory leadership Johnson and Raab under pressure from the party to veto any further vote. A cross party arrangement looks increasingly unlikely. UK employment and quarterly wage index releases tomorrow with Aussie jobs figures also on the calendar Thursday. The Australian economy needs strong jobs growth to maintain inflation targets if we see the number’s lower we could see a shift in monetary policy from the RBA and a rate cut sooner rather than later.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5364 (1.8642)
Resistance: 0.5395 (1.8870)
Support: 0.5300 (1.8540)
Last Weeks range: 0.5324-0.5396 (1.8533-1.8783)

Initially the British Pound (GBP) had the edge over the Australian Dollar (AUD) with price reaching 0.5300 (1.8870) early in the week but after the RBA cash rate announcement the Aussie rallied to 0.5370 (1.8620) where it currently resides. Australian Federal Elections are 8 days away with polls slightly swayed in the direction of Labor winning 77 seats over the Coalition’s 68. The RBA left the benchmark rate unchanged at 1.5% during the week in what was billed as the most exciting for two and a half years, Lowe playing it safe for now in his neutral statement. Downside bias still remains for the economy over the coming months but a wait and see approach with jobs numbers and a pick up in inflation is crucial for the economy. We think a cut will take place later in the year. UK q/q GDP is tonight and is expected to show a pickup in growth for the first quarter of 2019. This could move the pair back to retest the early week low of 0.5300 (1.8870).

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5385 GBPAUD 1.8570
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5296- 0.5396 GBPAUD 1.8530- 1.8880

The British Pound (GBP) remains in favour over the underperforming Australian Dollar (AUD) with price briefly reaching 0.5300 (1.8880) Monday, on renewed risk off trade tension fears. This is as low as the Aussie Dollar has traded since the day of the Brexit referendum on 24th June 2016. With Brexit uncertainty fading into the background we have seen the Pound appreciate off a low of 0.5520 (1.8120) mid-April, adding in better than predicted UK economic data including improved PMI and overall we have seen improved demand in GBP. The Bank of England (BoE) kept their benchmark rate unchanged at 0.75% setting monetary policy at a 2% inflation target, rising through 2021. Tomorrow the RBA will announce their new cash rate with chances at 50/50 for a cut. We think they will leave the rate at 1.50% with unemployment stable and consumer confidence improving. The biggest factor could be the weighting on the first quarter CPI dropping materially to 1.3% well below the 2.0% range forecasted. Transferring GBP to AUD at these levels should be considered.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level:0.5335 (1.8744)
Resistance: 0.5365 (1.8890)
Support:0.5395 (1.8640)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5296-0.5525 (1.8099-1.8881)

The British Pound (GBP) continues to have the edge over the Australian Dollar (AUD) over the past two weeks extending to 0.5370 (1.8620) Friday. The Bank of England (BoE) kept their benchmark rate unchanged at 0.75% overnight in a unanimous decision of 0-9. The bank have set monetary policy at a 2% inflation target and rising through 2021. In a revised positive set of forecasts investors will be upgrading expectations for growth. Carney said unemployment will fall further with the economy expected to generate more demand. He also went on to say the timing around Brexit now late October would have volatile results for economic data and how it concludes will be the biggest factor weighing on outlook. Aussie Building Approvals today marks a key release for the economy and could influence the RBA rate decision next Tuesday. It’s a coin toss on whether the RBA will cut rates. We expect a possible retest of the yearly low of 0.5305 (1.8850) in the medium term.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5365 GBPAUD 1.8639
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.53490- 0.5464 GBPAUD 1.8300- 1.8694

Australian CPI q/q printed down at 0.0% from 0.2% markets were expecting last Wednesday, depreciating the Aussie Dollar across the board on the announcement. The British Pound (GBP) picked up buyers retracing earlier losses to 0.5420 (1.8450). Speculation of a possible Theresa May leadership challenge challenged the Pound late in the week as it was back under selling pressures, price moving back to 0.5455 (1.8330) where the week closed. The Bank of England (BoE) will announce their official cash rate and monetary policy Thursday with Aussie Building Approvals Friday to give us a better look at the overall housing situation based on construction activity.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5448 (1.8355
Resistance: 0.5465 (1.8450)
Support: 0.5420 (1.8300)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5374-0.5525 (1.8099-1.8609)

It’s been a choppy 24 hours for this pair with the AUD/GBP cross rate falling to an overnight low of 0.5464 (1.8301) before recovering sharply back to 0.5496 (1.8196). Australian dollar (AUD) pressure drove the first leg of the move down, but then talk of a leadership challenge in the UK saw the Pound Sterling (GBP) itself come under heavy selling pressure and that drove the recover in the cross. The market now awaits Australian inflation data out in the coming hour. That result will likely set the tone for the rest of the week. Forecasts are for a 0.4% result, unchanged from prior.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5484 (1.8236)
Resistance: 0.5600 (1.8519)
Support: 0.5400 (1.7857)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5464-0.5525 (1.8099-1.8301)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has pushed passed recent resistance around 0.5470 (1.8280) this week to post a fresh 21 February high of 0.5500 (1.8180) against the British Pound (GBP). This retains our bullish theme from the mid-March low of 0.5310 (1.8840). Brexit news (hallelujah) has taken a backseat to data this week as negotiations have reached a stalemate between the parties to agree on a final Brexit deal. UK Job’s data highlighted robust employment growth with the unemployment at 3.90%- this is the lowest it has been since November 1974. The number of people who claim an unemployment benefit now outweighs the number of jobs available. Analysts are not expecting the jobs growth to impact on the (BoE) Bank of England to hike rates this year. Tomorrow sees Aussie jobs results for March with UK Retail Sales in the evening.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5491 (1.8211)
Resistance: 0.5505 (1.8228)
Support: 0.5455 (1.8174)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5425-0.5491 (1.8211-1.8432)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded to a fresh seven week high of 0.5485 (1.8230) against the British Pound (GBP) keeping intact its bullish theme from the mid March low of 0.5310 (1.8840) British monthly GDP printed at 0.2% bang on expectations and manufacturing came in higher at 0.9% from 0.2% we were predicting but never featured in price movement instead markets focused on Brexit. The UK won’t bow out of the EU today (12 April) in a haze of smoke instead, an extension to 31 October has been formally agreed. With nothing still negotiated and Theresa May unable to get any support for her deal she will keep her head up and push on- for how long is anyone’s guess. Tensions are running high in Westminster as levels of anxiety, anger and frustration after a long historic period of negotiating where nothing has concluded. A cross party compromise is sought to resolve differences in policy but now that they have 6 months to ponder what next MP’s will take a breather.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5457 GBPAUD 1.8325
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5425- 0.5483 GBPAUD 1.8238- 1.8432

Over the last four week or so we have seen a gradual and subtle shift in the Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) pair. From the low of 0.5305 (1.8850) the Aussie has maintained an edge over the GBP as it looks to break higher through 0.5465 (1.8300). Aussie data of late has supported price movement back towards early January levels. Price movement through the 50 days moving average confirms momentum is firmly with the AUD. Theresa May believes she is on the brink of a breakthrough with Labour MP’s with further talks about to kick off again. She will fly to Paris and Berlin before the emergency European summit on Wednesday to make a new case for extending article 50 for just a few more months. Data this week consists of UK GDP m/m and Manufacturing Production Wednesday, but first – Westpac Consumer Sentiment which has the potential to move price as it did during the poor release on 13 March.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5447 (1.8358)
Resistance: 0.5475 (1.8540)
Support: 0.5395 (1.8270)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5373-0.5465 (1.8298-1.8610)

Another turbulent week in the Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound pair has seen price move off the early high of 0.5473 (1.8270) to 0.5375 (1.8600) levels and back to trade Friday around 0.5440 (1.8380) The British Pound lost ground overnight as traders pondered the Brexit process for answers. By the narrowest of margins- 313 votes to 312 UK legislation was passed in favour of the UK government to request an extension to the Brexit rollercoaster. The bill will ensure the UK won’t crash out of the EU without a deal being agreed on. Finally some progress although it will be the ultimate decision of the EU to grant any extension. Also putting the GBP under pressure during Thursday’s European and NY trading sessions was March PMI – Purchasers Managers Index printed down at 48.9 based on expectations of 51.0 signalling a reduction in business activity across the service sector. Adding to the mix a Buoyant Australian Retail Sales figure printing much higher than expectations, we could see a retest of the 0.5475 (1.8270) area- the six week high.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5440 GBPAUD 1.8382
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5373- 0.5472 GBPAUD 1.8272- 1.8610

The Australian Dollar (AUD) rebounded off the five week high of 0.5340 (1.8720) Monday against the British Pound as buyers bid back the Pound. Brexit is still a complete shambles but a little overnight strength in the GBP has seen it return to 0.5423 (1.8440) taking back last week’s losses. Parliament MP’s will again vote on four Brexit options in the second round of indicative voting as the British are still split down the middle and try to find a way out of the political deadlock. UK Manufacturing released up on expectations of 51.2 to 55.1 as stockpiling ahead of a possible no deal Brexit sent the sector to a 13 month high for March. An extremely choppy five week period of uncertainty in the pair should continue for a while with Brexit appearing to show no clear picture. With price around current levels we still think its good selling of Pounds with price tracking lower from the December high of 0.5815 (1.7200)

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5441 (1.8378)
Resistance: 0.5475 (1.8670)
Support: 0.5355 (1.8270)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5339-0.5472 (1.8274-1.8731)

Brexit headlines have kept the British Pound (GBP) active against the Australian Dollar (AUD) with the pair trading at the top of the recent range. Trading at 0.5425 (1.8430) currently the Pound has weakened this week based on further uncertainty and parliament unable to agree on an outcome in the latest round of voting. With eight possible options including leaving without a deal, seeking a common union and revoking Britain’s exit from the EU. Not one of the eight voting scenarios gained a parliamentary majority. The customs union proposal came the closest losing by 272 to 264 votes. The proposal for a second referendum also came close with 268 for but 295 MP’s voting against it. The Cross has been pivoting around the 0.5375 (1.8600) level for 5 weeks now and with Brexit expected to sort itself out eventually we think these levels look good buy converting AUD to GBP. The pound is in a position to reprice itself higher in time and outperform.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5424 GBPAUD 1.8436
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5338- 0.5430 GBPAUD 1.8416- 1.8731

The Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) pair remains choppy as Brexit builds steam towards a solution. The cross currently trading at 0.5390 (1.8560) was at a four week high Friday of 0.5453 (1.8337) but wasn’t able to continue any momentum after headline news shifted the Pound back in favour to close 0.5360 (1.8660) for the week. Theresa May is struggling to gain enough parliamentary support for a third vote this week which could put pressure firmly back on the GBP. UK Current Account prints Friday. Watch for continuing Brexit headlines for further direction.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5391 (1.8549)
Resistance: 0.5435 (1.8770)
Support: 0.5330 (1.8400)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5324-0.5453 (1.8340-1.8783)

The British Pound (GBP) has continued its decline off the weekly open against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.5435 (1.8400) in the wake of further Brexit headlines. UK data this week has been good with unemployment dropping to 3.9% and CPI also printing at 1.9% from 1.80% expected. Retail Sales came in at an exceptional 0.4% m/m after -0.4% was expected by markets. But all this was overshadowed with Brexit news pushing the Pound lower. Even as the Bank of England released their Cash rate (unchanged at 0.75%) the Pound was unmoved. 4,600 new jobs were added to the Australian workforce in February a benign number after 14.8 was expected but markets focused on the unemployment number of 4.9% down from 5.0% which showed the extremely good recent trend in the labour market with the RBA’s target of 4.7 still within reach. A quiet week on the economic calendar next week with UK Current Account. We expect the Pound to recoup some of this week’s losses.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5418 GBPAUD 1.8456
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5324- 0.5453 GBPAUD 1.8336- 1.8781

Amid the recent slew of Australian data the British Pound reached a multi year high against the Australian Dollar (AUD) when it reached 0.5300 (1.8860) late last week. With the Pound finding support around current levels the last time we saw price this low was the day of the Brexit referendum – 24th June 2016. The AUD has opened the week well pushing higher off the open to 0.5360 (1.8650) as the Aussie looks to recoup some of the large yearly losses. The Pound will get most of the attention again this week with another vote by MP’s on whether to accept Theresa May’s rehashed deal. The speaker of the house Bercow has said he will rule out the 3rd vote unless the deal is considerably different to the last one rejected last week. Theresa May has cautioned this week’s vote may be delayed to give her more time to prepare. We have a massive amount of data to publish this week in the cross starting with monetary policy minutes today, Aussie jobs data and Bank of England official cash rate but a few.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5349 (1.8695)
Resistance: 0.5435 (1.8870)
Support: 0.5300 (1.8400)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5302-0.5433 (1.8405-1.8862)

With all the Australian Dollar (AUD) weakness of late and the British Pound (GBP) finding support amid a week of carnage, we have broken a multi-year low in the pair with price travelling to 0.5300 (1.8860). The last time price was this low was ironically the day of the Brexit referendum – 24th June 2016. At the time of writing the Pound has eased a little to 0.5340 (1.8720). Further voting took place overnight to decide on delaying the UK exit from the EU on the 27th of March – coming in at 412 to 202 to delay by up to 3 months. This won’t happen unless MP’s vote May’s deal in next week. If her deal is rejected again (3rd time) she will ask the EU for a longer extension as long as the other 27 EU members agree. The move towards delaying is working out ok for the Pound as this represents far less uncertainty over the less preferred perceived disorderly Brexit scenario. We expect the Pound to rally further over the coming couple of weeks.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5328    GBPAUD 1.8768
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5302- 0.5438    GBPAUD 1.8386- 1.8860

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has given back most of last week’s gains versus the British Pound returning to 0.5370 (1.8620) as hopes improve a Brexit deal can be negotiated. Last minute EU concessions have pushed buyers into the Pound as Theresa May travels to Strasbourg to meet with EU President Juncker. The aim of the trip is to finalise an agreement prior to the parliamentary vote tonight. Anything positive from the EU would be bullish for the Pound and push the currency higher. UK m/m GDP and Manufacturing data prints tonight.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5338 (1.8733)
Resistance:0.5430 (1.8900)
Support: 0.5290 (1.8420)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5325-0.5438 (1.8393-1.8779)

Australian data this week has made for a volatile time in the Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) cross with price reaching a low of 0.5330 (1.8770) and recently this morning 0.5375 (1.8610) before settling at 0.5360 (1.8660). The RBA left rates unchanged at 1.50% with comments from Lowe suggesting tough times ahead but he expected wage growth to pick up as well as unemployment to drop from 5.00% to 4.75%. Trade Balance printed at 4.55B from 2.85B expected surprising markets and stemming the downward spiral. Remember parliament will vote next week (12th) on Theresa’ May’s Brexit deal. If they vote a “no deal” brexit they will then vote on a extension to article 50 ending 29 March. The EU are not fans of doing this. Movement is very hard to pick as anything could happen, but if we had to make a call we are going with the recent downtrend and Aussie demise to continue through 0.5320 (1.8800)

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5358    GBPAUD 1.8663
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5326- 0.5398   GBPAUD 1.8522- 1.8773

Figures showed Australian Building approval printed up 2.5% for the month of January stopping the rot settle in the Australian Dollar (AUD). Overall this is a decline of over 25% in the last three months of 2018. The British Pound (GBP) was expected to start the week on the backfoot after the recent surge from of last week from 0.5470 (1.8280) but this hasn’t eventuated yet with price coming off the low of 0.5340 (1.8720) (the 25 month low) to 0.5380 (1.8580) Tuesday. The RBA Cash will be announced today and will remain at its record low of 1.50% for a while longer. Look out for market moving quarterly GDP tomorrow.
Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5379 (0.5380)
Resistance: 0.5425 (1.8720)
Support: 0.5340 (1.8440)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5342-0.5485 (1.8230-1.8721)

The British Pound Extended its early week run higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.5350 (1.8700) as markets priced out the prospects of a no deal Brexit at the end of March. On the day of the referendum in June 2016 price went from 0.5000 (2.000) to 0.5600 (1.7850) and the Pound has slowly been recovering ever since. Today price has surpassed the prior low of October 2018 to trade currently back to 0.5350 (1.8700). As conditions around Brexit improve the Pound will improve. Anyone looking to buy Pounds should consider Brexit impact.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5350   GBPAUD 1.8691
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5341- 0.5496   GBPAUD 1.8195- 1.8723

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continued its run from last week’s low of 0.5420 (1.8450) through to 0.5500 (1.8190) Monday against the British Pound after risk related currencies received a boost after positive trade talks between China and the US. The Pound should regain some early week losses today with news that Angela Merkel and Theresa May have met ahead of Brexit talks in Egypt to discuss extending Brexit. The Aussie has already eased lower to 0.5480 (1.8250). Tonight’s UK Inflation hearing by the BoE will be carefully scrutinised.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5458 (1.8321)
Resistance: 0.5500 (1.8450)
Support: 0.5420 (1.8200)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5421-0.5526 (1.8096-1.8448)

The British Pound (GBP) is up over 1.5% on the Australian Dollar (AUD) in the last 24 hours as the AUD struggles to gain support, falling from 0.5525 (1.8100) to 0.5430 (1.8420) as it gets hit hard from all angles. Aussie jobs numbers yesterday were surprisingly good boosting the currency for a short time before Westpac announced they expect the RBA to cut the cash rate in both August and November this year. They also see unemployment rising from the current 5.0% to 5.5%. China announced a total ban of Australian coal imports for 2019 which is China’s top coal supplier and will cap overall imports. This comes as a real blow to the Australian economy with coal being Australia’s biggest export earner. The pair is still being mostly driven by Brexit and central bank speak but with more alarming news coming out of Australia and we could be staring at 0.5350 (1.8700) the multi year low.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5442   GBPAUD 1.8375
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5420- 0.5545    GBPAUD 1.8033- 1.8448

The British Pound (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair continues to be driven by central bank speak and Brexit woes. With positive comments coming overnight on Brexit we have seen price move higher for the Pound to 0.5520 (1.8120). As we have said, until Brexit certainty becomes a thing most GBP crosses will remain choppy well through the 29th March deadline. Overnight we have seen the odds increase of article 50 being extended after seven labour MP’s broke from the party. This will hamper any chances of Labour pushing a general election to negotiate Brexit. Theresa May received a telling off by four cabinet ministers to stop using the “no deal” Brexit scenario as a negotiating tactic. Businesses and manufacturers need certainty so perhaps it’s time for May to properly rule out this option entirely. Both UK and Australian employment figures publish this week, tonight and Thursday with both expecting excellent figures.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5515 (1.8132)
Resistance: 0.5595 (1.8340)
Support: 0.5450 (1.7880)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5488-0.5558 (1.7991-1.8220)

Negative Brexit news overnight created more weakness in the British Pound (GBP) trading to a low of 0.5555 (1.8000) against the Australian Dollar (AUD). One week down, next week up seems to be the theme with the overall strength with the pound from the 4 December 2018 high of 0.5815 (1.7200). Poor UK data this week hasn’t helped the GBP, with Manufacturing figures and CPI y/y down at 1.8% from 1.9% predicted, the first time inflation has been under 2.0% since 2017. Both UK and Australia have unemployment data printing next week which should shift price significantly. With Brexit drawing closer to the 29 March deadline who knows where price may travel but it’s hard to not see the Pound come off large.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5542    GBPAUD 1.8044
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5477- 0.5558    GBPAUD 1.7990- 1.8257

Price in the Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) is pivoting around the 0.5490 (1.8220) area after rebounding off last week’s low of 0.5450 (1.8340). GDP printed overnight showing fourth quarter GDP coming in at 0.2% from the 0.3% expected. GDP for the full year of 2018 was 1.4% and is the weakest growth in six years since 2012. It’s a quiet week for the Aussie Dollar on the calendar with only tier UK CPI y/y and Retail Sales to print later in the week. With the key Brexit date looming we think the Pound will deteriorate and retest the 0.5600 (1.7860) level again over the next two weeks.

Exchange Rates:
Current Level: 0.5491 (1.8211)
Resistance: 0.5525 (1.8500)
Support: 0.5405 (1.8100)
Last Week’s Range: 0.5452-0.5598 (1.7865-1.8343)

The British Pound (GBP) extended its gains over the Australian Dollar (AUD) overnight to 05465 (1.8290) after the Bank of England (BoE) Cash rate announcement. The BoE voted unanimously in favour 0-9 for a remain at 0.75%. It’s hard to pinpoint why it rallied based on a dovish view after they downgraded the growth predictions from 1.7% to 1.2% for 2019. The move reflects the weaker global footing and ongoing uncertainty with how Brexit will play out. So the Central bank seems fairly unlikely to raise rates this year but let’s see how things develop in the second half after Brexit is sorted. Price perhaps supported the GBP after US equities traded down overnight with the Nasdaq falling over 1.50% making risk currencies vulnerable? Brexit news will continue to dictate moves.

Exchange Rates:
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5458     GBPAUD 1.8320
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5455- 0.5596    GBPAUD 1.7867- 1.8329

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