AUD to NZD – Australian Dollar to New Zealand Dollar
When converting AUD to NZD, or New Zealand Dollars to Australian Dollars (NZD to AUD), by exchanging via Direct FX, you will save a significant amount of money. Our wholesale currency exchange rates for money transfers, are significantly more competitive than bank foreign exchange rates. Being Australasian based, we specialise in knowing what drives AUD to NZD currency conversion rates.
AUD to NZD Overview: Australia is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Therefore the performance of the New Zealand economy and the NZD, is closely linked to the Australian economy and the AUD. Due to this extremely close correlation, when compared to other currency pairs, the AUD to NZD exchange rate remains one of the most stable. More often than not, it is the interest rate differential between the two countries, that dictate the prevailing AUD to NZD exchange rate.
|Historical Ranges:||1 year||5 years||10 years|
|AUD/NZD||1.0216 – 1.0865||1.0216 – 1.1082||1.0026 – 1.3808|
|NZD/AUD||.0.9204 – .9789||.0.9024 – .9789||.7242 – .9974|
Current Official Cash Rates:
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): 0.25% Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ): 0.25%
We provide insight into the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar (AUD/NZD) currency pair by reporting trends, market news and providing relative currency charts.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) advanced this week into Friday to 1.0605 (0.9430) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) continuing its 3-week run from the low of 1.0750 (0.9300) late June. RBA’s Lowe maintained the current 0.25% Tuesday choosing to stick with current policy. He said although indicators have picked up over the last few weeks the worst of the global economic downturn has passed. Big call, with outlook to remain bumpy especially as they try to contain coronavirus in Victoria. A return to lockdown in Melbourne for the next 6 weeks will hurt the Victorian economy as tourism and business falters. We favour further rises in the kiwi for now, next week’s NZ CPI q/q and Aussie Unemployment Rate could shake up the pair.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) started the week on the front foot against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) travelling from 1.0620 (0.9420) off the open to 1.0670 (0.9370) late Monday before reversing. Australian Consumer Confidence has dropped to an 8-week low contributing to losses for the Aussie with price back at 1.0630 (0.9410) Tuesday. We now await the RBA cash rate and monetary policy later today- no change from the 0.25% is guaranteed with the statement expected in a low key meeting, however we could some talk around the high AUD. We think the pair could bounce around current levels for a while.
A quiet week on the data front suggests the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) wont stray far from 1.0700 (0.9345). However with recent momentum supporting the Aussie over the last two weeks and price pushing above the 100 day moving average we could see shifts towards 1.0750 (0.9300) towards week’s end. Aussie Trade Balance figures Thursday may create some excitement but probably not. Plans to ease back restrictions in Victoria this week were canned based on a bunch of new cases. Australia got complacent and relaxed what feeble quarantine/isolation measures they had- the result is that Covid-19 is not going anywhere fast and will impact the economy for some time. Never whistle until you pass the village. Brexit negotiations got underway again this week with EU’s Barnier saying the EU still have serious differences over a post -Brexit trade deal.
A quiet week on the data front suggests the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) wont stray far from 1.0700 (0.9345). However, with recent momentum supporting the Aussie over the last two weeks and price pushing above the 100 day moving average we could see shifts towards 1.0750 (0.9300) towards week’s end. Aussie Trade Balance figures Thursday may create some excitement but probably not. Plans to ease back restrictions in Victoria this week were canned based on a bunch of new cases. Australia got complacent and relaxed what feeble quarantine/isolation measures they had- the result is that Covid-19 is not going anywhere fast and will impact the economy for some time. Never whistle until you pass the village.
Early in the week RBA Lowe’s comments helped send the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 1.0755 (0.9300) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) assisted by a dovish RBNZ Wednesday. RBNZ’s Orr delivered a dovish straight bat account of forward guidance. Risks remain to the downside for the kiwi with a lot of work yet to be done to escape the jaws of coronavirus. If necessary Orr said he would expand on the govt QE package of 60B and did the opposite to the RBA by saying the economy needs a weaker NZD to support export earnings. Looking ahead we have ANZ business Confidence Tuesday and Aussie Trade Balance Thursday to keep an eye on. We think the cross will bounce around current levels deep into next week.
A quiet start to the week in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross has seen action bounce around 1.0660 (0.9380). Initial moves supported the kiwi to 1.0630 (0.9410) but once RBA’s Lowe spoke yesterday the Aussie recovered. Lowe’s comments gave the Aussie a boost when he talked up economic outlook and said he preferred a lower AUD but current levels were fine. RBNZ’s Orr speaks tomorrow at the cash rate and monetary policy meeting. Markets are speculating he may give a dovish review and talk down the kiwi, to stimulate the economy. This could clearly send messages to investors to exit NZD. With coronavirus cases increasing in NZ and particularly in Victoria prospects of a “travel bubble” are pretty much dead in the water. We don’t think the NZDAUD cross is going anywhere soon from its current 0.9300 (1.0750) – 0.9400 (1.0640) band.
With poor data printing on both sides of the Tasman the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross has been volatile this week, some would say finding its feet. Pushing lower to 1.0580 (0.9450) early in the week the kiwi failed to push on drifting to 1.0730 (0.9320) midweek before clawing back losses to 1.0670 (0.9370) Friday. RBA minutes from the last meeting confirmed the usual rhetoric around downside risks before NZ GDP data shook up the kiwi sending it lower. First quarter GDP, released at -1.6% vs -1.0% predicted, the largest first quarter drop in 29 years as the country feels the effects of lockdown on the economy. Aussie Retail Sales for May later today could provide further direction for the pair.
With China having issues with coronavirus, second wave cases in Beijing I would think the recent bullish run in the Australian Dollar (AUD) may have a limited shelf life. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) sank to 1.0710 (0.9340) after being at 1.0580 (0.9450) in early Monday trading but anything towards 1.0730 (0.9320) looks overbought. The Aussie unemployment rate is forecast to jump to 7.0% from 6.2% in Thursday’s announcement prior to Retail Sales for May. Event risk for the Aussie looks to send the kiwi higher in the coming days.
The New Zealand Dollar waivered mid-week dropping back to 1.0730 (0.9320) against the Australian Dollar but has regained its losses into Friday trading to 1.0635 (0.9400). Both ANZ Business Confidence figures and NAB Business Confidence printed slightly better than predicted. Aussie NAB figures highlight an improvement in activity with confidence levels a little more positive in May. We are still far above the long run average of similar depths seen during the GFC in 2008 as we start to see slow economic improvements. Resistance is the daily close at 1.0620 (0.9420), a break above here and we could see further upside bias to 1.0520 (0.9520)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to make advances into Tuesday against the Australian Dollar (AUD) reversing all of last week’s losses trading to 1.0690 (0.9355). The Aussie has made decent gains over other crosses over the past few days but with no coronavirus cases reported now in NZ – the kiwi has been favoured. NZ Business Confidence improved 9 points to -33% with firms less negative over the future outlook of the NZ economy. The Chinese Ministry of Culture and Tourism have issued a warning against travel to Australia citing a significant increase in racist attacks on Chinese and Asian people. This headline is significant and could filter into downward pressure on the AUD. We are forecasting a return to 1.0520 (0.9500).
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to drag its feet over the preferred Australian Dollar (AUD) to 1.0870 (0.9200) Wednesday. The current level represents resistance from the early March high. The RBA’s Lowe confirmed current policy yesterday and vowed to upscale its bond purchases to do whatever the economy needs to remain functional. Australian Current Account published at 8.4B surplus, much higher than the 6.3B expected based on the inability to trade internationally because of coronavirus causes, this gave the news pushed the AUD higher. Aussie GDP releases later today and is expected to come in at -0.4% for the first quarter (ending March) which could have a negative impact on the AUD.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended last week’s recovery against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 1.0680 (0.9365) Friday after reversing off 1.0830 (0.9235). Media attention around China upset with Australia’s investigation into coronavirus is heating up with China saying the relationship could be damaged beyond repair and will continue to pressure the AUD. Next week’s Aussie Current Account along with the RBA cash rate and statement will hold attention as NZ takes Monday off for Queen’s Birthday. We don’t expect price to travel back to the earlier lows in the near term.
The NZD/AUD cross continues to hold within the 1.0670- 1.0724 (0.9372-0.9325) range over the last week and looks to be consolidating around the low 1.07 (0.9300’s) region. We favour the NZD on this cross, as trade tensions between Australia and China continue to ramp-up , the NZD is not immune from any major AUD fallout but should hold ground on the cross if AUD offshore selling emerges.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) broke fresh levels through prior resistance at 1.0710 (0.9340) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Wednesday on its way to 1.0830 (0.9233) topping out at the September 2019 low before falling back into Friday to 1.0720 (0.9330) The RBA minutes confirmed the central bank was prepared to beef up Govt Bond purchases if necessary but the current package was broadly feeding into the economy well. The NZ National party has elected a new leader with news just out that Todd Miller has overpowered Simon Bridges for the race for leadership. Muller’s preference for a deputy is Nikki Kaye. Punters recently have preferred the Aussie with risk sentiment high, but with China and US tensions back making headlines we could see Aussie weakness develop and a retest around the 1.0520 (0.9505) support area.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) stretched its legs in another wave of defiance last week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to fresh highs around 1.0835 (0.9240). This week into Tuesday sessions price has consolidated somewhat around this high as markets await the RBA minutes later today. It’s not as if the kiwi has been underperforming lately on the contrary the NZD has also seen decent bouts of bullishness against other pairs. Oddly enough investors have preferred the Aussie going back to the mid March highs close to parity. As Trade tensions heat up and Chinese business could see closures again on second wave coronavirus fears we are picking a heavy reversal and could see the pair take a look at 0.9520 (1.0500) levels in the coming weeks.
Wednesday’s RBNZ announcement took the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) off 1.0650 (0.9390) to 1.0780 (0.9275) Wednesday after a dovish read from Governor Adrian Orr shocked markets by saying he was not ruling out negative rates later in the year. The cash rate remains at 0.25% with an additional 30B QE added to the Asset Purchase programme. Surprisingly poor Aussie jobs numbers seemed ignored by punters when Australia released its biggest monthly Jobs decline on record of 595K for April. The number was fairly expected however falls in the AUD were perhaps mitigated by the unemployment rate not rising as forecast (6.2% v 8.3%). With price around 1.0760 (0.9295) Friday morning making fresh lows – it has to be said we feel the AUD is wildly overvalued.
With strong links to the Chinese economy the Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to bounce off dips against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and outperform. Price into Tuesday retreated off the low of 1.0620 (0.9415) to 1.0680 (0.9365) and looks to retest last week’s high of 1.0700 (0.9345) as we head into a busy week for the cross. The RBNZ cash rate will be announced tomorrow and will remain at 0.25% with comments by Orr to be centred around adding additional stimulus to the NZ economy by expanding our QE program. Looking to Thursday we will get a look at how the Australian is tracking amid coronavirus when employment figures release. Expectations are that a jump of 550,000 people will be added to the unemployment cue in April – up from 5.2% in March. We have been talking up a reversal of this cross but it’s yet to happen, last week’s 1.0750 (0.9300) is in jeopardy.
Risk on markets has supported the Australian Dollar (AUD) this week more so than the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with price returning to 1.0700 (0.9345) Friday from midweek’s low of 1.0570 (0.9460). Chinese Trade data surprised markets offsetting the earlier Aussie bearish mood turning heads and giving momentum back to the AUD. Earlier in the week the RBA left the cash rate at 0.25% at its policy meeting with the board saying they won’t increase the cash rate until full employment is reached and they can be confident inflation can be sustained within the 2-3% band. The successful containment of coronavirus and strong policy support should see both the AUD and kiwi in favourable positions on a global front. As improving Chinese data comes in we could see the AUD outperform the NZD for a while. Massive resistance at 1.0750 (0.9305) holds a significant level, getting past here is like entering a wormhole to another dimension.
The big come back story of the Australian Dollar (AUD) of late hit a roadblock mid last week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) coming off a high of 1.0750 (0.9300) to head into the weekly close around 1.0600 (0.9435). The kiwi looks stable heading into Tuesday with predictions we may be seeing a reversal in the kiwi and a solid base in the pair forming. On its way higher the kiwi may be met with support at 1.0520 (0.9505). Certainly, today’s RBA rate decision could be key followed by tomorrow’s NZ unemployment rate read. With Standard and Poor’s rating agency reaffirming NZ’s long term foreign currency debt at AA this could support the kiwi for a while longer. Price is pivoting around the 20-day moving average- if we see a break to 1.0550 (0.9480) we may see the kiwi strengthen further.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached 1.0750 (0.9300) overnight against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after pushing past last week’s high of 1.0640 (0.9400) into new territory. We feel the Aussie is well overbought as do other market analysts suggesting we could see a reversal develop. Technical drivers point to anything pre 1.0820 (0.9240) as extreme levels dating back to September 2018. Australian coronavirus is key to any improvement as Morrison relaxes restrictions, he has launched mobile software to assist with virus monitoring amid concerns of privacy breaches. He said it was not compulsory for people to download the app; he flagged it as necessary to relax current restrictions further. Downside bias in the cross we think is limited to 1.075 (0.9300) with the kiwi expected to appreciate over the coming days/weeks.
All indicators in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair suggest a pull back off the recent low of 1.0640 (0.9400). But, although we have seen moderate weakness in the Aussie through the middle stages of this week it’s returned to form into Friday with price back at 1.0620 (0.9415) to a late November 2019 low pushing lower against all analysis. Coronavirus numbers on both sides of the Tasman have been fantastic of late as both countries go head to head with who can come out better off health and economically. The rise in the Aussie may be cut short as the near-term drivers suggest 1.0655 (0.9350) offers huge resistance.
As we commented earlier, as soon as we had a lockdown change we would see improvements in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) develop against the Australian Dollar (AUD). The kiwi has come off its recent high of 1.0620 (0.9420) bouncing lower to trade around the 1.0490 (0.9530) Tuesday as restrictions over lockdown 4 will be relaxed to lockdown level 3 on the 27th of April were announced Monday. Breaking below 1.0520 (0.9500) channel support we may be seeing a trend change developing. NZ and Australia are still considering a post lockdown “trans-Tasman bubble” if infections in both countries continue to decrease to manageable levels. NZ recorded 9 new infections Monday along with Australia’s 13 with both economies poised to reopen when govt’s allow. A retest of last week’s open at 1.0420 (0.9600) is on the cards.
With coronavirus numbers plateauing in Australia the Australian Dollar (AUD) has been rather perky in the last 24 hours against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), the pair trading to 1.0290 (0.9720) at Tuesday lunch off the 1.0230 (0.9775) open. New Zealand Treasury announced the syndicated tap of the 1.5% coupon 15 May 2031 nominal Bond. The Treasury expects to sell at least 2.0Billion of the 15 May 2031 bond. The Bond has been well received by offshore investors and should hold the kiwi favourably going forward. Back to coronavirus- Australia has around 96 people in intensive care and they have done an enormous amount of testing-perhaps more per capita than any other country. BUT- they are still largely in partial lockdown, how have they managed to contain the virus to around 5,900 cases, I’m baffled, especially when NZ is in a full lockdown? The RBA will announce their cash rate and monetary policy today at 2.30 Sydney time with no expectation of a change from the 0.25%. However, tweaks are expected to the current policy. We are picking prices to drift back to 1.0205 (0.9800) levels.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) eased into the weekly close around 1.0200 (0.9805) with the Aussie extending last week’s support into Tuesday with price at 1.0260 (0.9750). I still don’t think Australian authorities are on top of the coronavirus epidemic. Scott Morrsion confirmed 444 kiwis living in Australia will now be eligible for the AUD$1,500 “job keeper” fortnightly assistance payments. It was only 9 days ago the cross bounced off parity. The Aussie is looking stretched at current levels just shy of 1.0330 (0.9680) resistance. Technically we are sitting plum at the 50% retracement of the move from the high of 1.0520 (0.9505 and the low at 1.000 (parity) suggesting a shift back to 1.0120 (0.9880) is most likely.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) eased into the weekly close around 1.0200 (0.9805) with the Aussie extending last week’s support into Tuesday with price at 1.0260 (0.9750) I still don’t think Australian authorities are on top of the coronavirus epidemic. Scott Morrsion confirmed 444 kiwis living in Australia will now be eligible for the AUD$1,500 “job keeper” fortnightly assistance payments. It was only 9 days ago the cross bounced off parity. The Aussie is looking stretched at current levels just shy of 1.0330 (0.9680) resistance. Technically we are sitting plum at the 50% retracement of the move from the high of 1.0520 (0.9505 and the low at 1.000 (parity) suggesting a shift back to 1.0120 (0.9880) is most likely.
RBNew Zealand is in full “level 4” lockdown from tomorrow while Australia is still seemingly in disarray State to State. The Australian Dollar (AUD) , New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is hovering under the 1.0200 (0.9805) area awaiting further directional cues. It certainly won’t come from economic data that’s for sure as this week is thin pickings- instead coronavirus led headlines will be the main driver again. Markets reacted negatively to price above parity off loading the kiwi, markets clearly not quite ready yet for levels above parity with the Aussie rebounding. Aussie buyer demand should continue to push prices higher over the coming days if commodity markets catch a break.
RBA and RBNZ stimulus plans have sent the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to all corners this week. Both Australian and NZ borders have been closed (Australia today at 9pm) which brought back a flood of buyer interest in both currencies with the announcements practically at the same time causing massive volatility spikes. Pivoting from the pair’s happy place around the 1.0100 (0.9900) level the range over the last 24 hours has been around 1.0188 (0.9815) to 1.0035 (0.9965). NZ fourth quarter GDP printed at 0.5% along with a drop in Aussie Unemployment to 5.1% form 5.3% for February- both were relatively overlooked results with focus on Covid-19 driving price. We think the cross should stay around current ranges for a while, with reasonable chances we see a return to parity
The Australian Dollar (AUD) came off the weekly open in charge against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reaching 0.9700 (1.0308) from 0.9815 (1.0190) but was stopped in its tracks by a surprise RBNZ announcement early Monday. The RBNZ cut rates to a historic 0.25% from 1.0%. The NZ government is under pressure to react from the economic fallout from Covid-19 as it spreads. Orr explained that the new rate would stay in place for the next 12 months. The RBA cut rates early March to 0.50% but this now won’t be enough with expectations over the coming days the RBA will cut further to 0.25% in line with other central banks. The NZD surged to 0.9978 (1.0022) last night before returning to 0.9903 (1.0098). It’s possible the pair may test parity over the coming days.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) underperformed this week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) sliding to 1.0215 (0.9789) Friday a whopping 2.0%. Once it slipped below 1.0380 (0.9633) support the bearish decline couldn’t be stemmed. Governor Orr saying he sees no need to use alternative monetary policy instruments and the current policy is sound. That is not to say we won’t see an emergency meeting over the next few days as coronavirus worsens in NZ. So far so good. The Aussie should claw back losses in the coming days with the cross returning to 1 .0310 (0.9700) levels.
Choppy action in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair continued into Tuesday with price all over the park Monday after markets around the world suffered a mini crash. A massive range between 1.0520 (0.9505) and 1.0370 (0.9645) over one hour of trading yesterday afternoon made for incredible volatility shifts and tough times for traders. Overnight price drifted towards 1.0350 (0.9660) levels supporting the kiwi. After massive falls yesterday over 6% in the ASX the index has again shed a further 4% or around 66B in value during today’s trading. The NZX is not fearing any better dropping over 4% in today’s trading. RBNZ’s Ore is due to talk at 2pm today on unconventional monetary policy and should hopefully give further directional cues. Certainly price fluctuations should continue in choppy times around current levels for some time yet. Buyers of AUD are still enjoying good buying levels, a luxury EUR, USD and GBP buyers don’t have.
Choppy action in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair saw price move initially to 1.0400 (0.9615) levels then to 1.0530 (0.9500) as markets responded to the RBA rate cut buying back the Aussie. The RBA cut rates Tuesday to 0.75% from 1.25% as widely expected to support a weakening economy as it responds to the coronavirus outbreak. The RBA says they are prepared to ease further if necessary if coronavirus continues to cloud growth forecasts. Usually post a rate cut by any central bank weakens the currency based on yield rate differences, but surprisingly the Aussie rallied over a cent post release through to Thursday. Friday’s price is back at 1.0480 (0.9510) as we wait for Australian Retail figures this afternoon.
With both the Australian dollar (AUD) and New Zealand dollar (NZD) having been under serious pressure over the past week, the cross rate between the two currencies has seen choppy trading between 1.0389 and 1.0485. Domestic data from both countries has had limited impact with the market firmly focused on the global economic implication of the Coronavirus epidemic. Today however, we have a very interesting interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia to digest. While the interest rate market has fully priced in a cut from the RBA, it’s hard to know whether or not they are ready yet to pull the trigger. We suspect they will cut today, but I bet they would have much rather had another week or two to see how things develop. The AUDNZD should be volatile in the wake of the decision, but it’s hard to see any long term trend in the pair developing as the RBNZ will no doubt follow any cut from the RBA with their own action in the coming weeks. Clients looking to convert NZD to AUD should continue to take advantage of spikes below 1.0400.
Improvements during early week trading took the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 1.0385 (0.9630) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) on weaker Aussie data. Construction work done came in for the fourth quarter 2019 a disappointing -3.0% from the -1.0% expected and overall for the 2019 year down- overall 7.4%. This was followed by capex at -2.8% for the fourth quarter based on predictions of 0.5% growth. NZ ANZ Business Confidence missed its mark also releasing softer data Thursday stemming a return of favour for the AUD with price returning to 1.0430 (0.9590) midday Friday. Looking ahead we have the RBA Cash rate and policy statement next week with expectations that they will hold off a little longer before dropping rates as they watch how economic factors play out such as the recent jump in unemployment and importantly coronavirus. We think recent ranges will remain intact for a while longer.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair continues to knock about around the 1.0420 (0.9600) area with a slight improvement for the kiwi into Tuesday off the Monday open from 1.0430 (0.9590). Both the kiwi and Aussie economies will continue to be vulnerable to risk off coronavirus headline disruptions, but we don’t expect price to shift much from recent ranges in the near term. We have NZ – ANZ Business Confidence and Aussie Private Capital Expenditure to come this week for directional cues.
Choppy movement this week in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has seen price trade between 1.0480 (0.9540) and 1.0414 (0.9602) with no real direction. RBA minutes confirmed recent speak of lower rates to achieve inflation targets and full employment and reviewing the case for further interest cuts at a later date. The Australian Employment rate went higher to 5.3% from 5.2% remaining relatively steady but markets saw it another way, weakening the Aussie post release. Next week’s NZ Retails Sales and Business Confidence should offer more momentum cues.
Price momentum from last week continued for the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 1.0570 (0.9460) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) early in the week through to the RBNZ announcement Wednesday. The RBNZ left rates unchanged at 1.0% which was no surprise, but Ore’s statement surprised after he confirmed there would be no further cuts planned for 2020. Growth is expected to improve in the second half of the year and inflation is around target levels of 2.0%. The kiwi surged recovering most of last week’s losses back to 1.0400 (0.9615) post the statement. RBA’s governor Lowe was on the wires saying coronavirus was having an uncertain impact on the Australian economy but overall the outlook was improving. These words along with China’s stimulus plan pushed the AUD back to 1.0430 (0.9590). We favour price returning to 1.0300 (0.9710) with an improved RBNZ policy stance.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) closed at 1.0470 (0.9550) Monday the highest daily close against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) since 10 December 2019 reaching 1.0475 (0.9545) into Tuesday. The RBA said they would ease policy from the 0.75% if they needed to through 2020 with rates looking to remain low for a long period. The RBNZ official cash rate is announced tomorrow with expectations of no change from the 1.0% with RBNZ’s Ore likely to speak of the impact of the coronavirus and its knock-on effect its making on Chinese growth to NZ growth forecasts. We could see a spike in the kiwi post RBNZ release just on a remain, with a retrace back over 1.0420 (0.9600) predicted.
Range bound action in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair saw little movement last week into Tuesday with price around 1.0360 (0.9650). The Aussie has had a slight edge over the kiwi over the last 7 days after recovering losses from 1.0300 (0.9710). We await today’s RBA cash rate announcement and policy statement with no change to the 0.75% reasonably priced into the cross. We don’t expect much change from current policy but Lowe could speak about concerns around the coronavirus and the flow on effect from China’s worsening economic situation spilling over into Australia’s growth projections. NZ employment data promises to add volatility along with Aussie Trade Balance and Retail Sales Thursday. Buyers of AUD with price below 1.0420 (0.9600) should consider.
After posting a low this week of 1.0300 (0.9710) the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tracked weaker against the Australian Dollar (AUD) through the week down to1.0350 (0.9660) Friday lunch. With just Aussie CPI releasing slightly above expectation at 0.7% this gave the AUD a boost Wednesday reversing early week, and prior week losses. We have not seen the pair trade outside the thin 130 point band this year. Coronavirus occupies most of the global headlines but hasn’t really played a part yet in this pair’s direction. With the virus expected to affect Chinese growth in the first quarter 2020 from fourth quarter 6.0% to 4.5%, this could have a direct flow on effect spilling into the Australian economy. Next week’s RBA and following NZ employment holds focus.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pushed higher off the open post Friday’s positive NZ CPI print reaching 1.0308 (0.9703) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) before easing back to 1.0345 (0.9665). Sitting perilously close to the long term daily close at 1.0300 (0.9710), a close below here could represent further troubles for the Aussie. The last daily close lower was September 2016. The data focus this week lies with fourth quarter Australian CPI with expectations of a rise of 0.6%- bushfires will have an impact on increased prices associated with a lack of supply and problems with distribution in some product sectors such as fruit and veg. Fantastic time to buy AUD- don’t wait for higher prices when under 1.0420 (0.9600) represents historically great buying.
The Australian Dollar (AUD, New Zealand Dollar (NZD) stayed around recent range bound prices at 1.0400 (0.9615) early in the week as we waited for Aussie jobs figures. Australian Job data surprised to the upside Thursday after the official Unemployment Rate edged down to 5.1% from 5.2% and the participation number for December rose by 28,900 based on consensus of 12,000. This lifted the Aussie to 1.0430 (0.9590) where it held for several sessions before positive NZ fourth quarter CPI unwound Aussie gains as the cross travelled back to 1.0340 (0.9670) Friday. This will reinforce recent uncertainty from the RBNZ to raise rates on February 12 as we see the likelihood of any further cuts on the back burner. With price remaining in a band between 1.0309 (0.9700) and 1.0440 (0.9580) and we could see a retracement back to prior levels in the near term.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross has set up camp around 1.0400 (0.9615) over the last few days after a brief burst to 1.0370 (0.9640) mid last week. We need a close above 1.0480 (0.9540) to break the long-term trend lower from Novembers 1.0860 (0.9210) top. Two key releases this week for the cross could add volatility- first Aussie jobs numbers followed by NZ quarterly CPI. Both are expected to print well, but we do see chances of a possibility the 11,200 new jobs for December 2019 could miss its mark. With the terrible Australian fires yet to fully affect the AUD we see price back below 1.0310 (0.9700) soon.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) positive mood continued as the currency extends last week’s bull run from 1.0320 (0.9690) to 1.0450 (0.9570) midweek against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Support around 0.9570 (1.0450) however held as the kiwi recouped losses to 1.0380 (0.9635) The feel good, from last week’s slew of positive Australian data seems to have ended as Iron Ore depreciates and the Aussie considers fresh talk of rate cuts. Next week’s Australian Jobs data will be key along with govt assistance required from the economic fallout from the bush fires should see the NZD regain momentum heading into the RBA’s next meeting. We expect the daily high of 1.0325 (0.9685) to be tested in the coming days
Last week’s positive Australian data continues to support momentum in the AUD against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with price reversing off 1.0314 (0.9695) travelling to 1.0410 (0.9606) into Tuesday. Building Approvals, Trade Balance and Retail Sales all printed up on expectation last week and should continue to push price lower into the 1.050.95’s especially with a lack of data to print this week driving direction either way. With the imminent signing of the phase one trade deal, this has buoyed the China reliant Australian economy as well- Iron Ore and coal trade higher. We expect price to drift deep into the 1.04’s (0.95’s) over the week.
Stats from last year’s trading in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand dollar (NZD) pair which may be of interest…2019 open 1.0555, close 1.0428, high 1.0865, low 1.0263. The fact this cross never travelled above 1.0870 at all in 2019 is quite remarkable and has never happened before in prior years. The Aussie has had a poor time in 2020 with bush fires impacting economics and the Dollar with the RBA reporting they could need to drop the cash rate at the next RBA meeting on 4 February. Trading into Thursday around the 1.0330 (0.9680) area the Aussie continues to underperform. Even with a stellar Building Approval reading for November the AUD continues to lose ground across the board. Looking ahead we have Trade balance later today followed by Retail Sales on Friday to digest. Around current levels, this is the lowest daily close in the cross since late March 2019.
The New Zealand (NZD) has proved unstoppable this week extending recent week’s incline against the struggling Australian Dollar (AUD) to 1.0420 (0.9595). The RBA left their cash rate unchanged at 0.75% as expected with Lowe saying, the outlook for the global economy although still tilted to the downside remains stable. Markets foresee another possible cut of 25 basis points in February pending how data publishes. Aussie data has been largely poor this week with quarterly GDP coming in at 0.4% from the 0.5% expected and Retail Sales at 0.0% from 0.3% doing most of the damage sinking the Aussie Thursday. With no further data this week should see the cross remain around current levels of 1.0440 (0.9580) into next week’s this data week. Buyers of AUD should fill your boots, the AUD will rebound.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) marched forward Monday to a fresh 13 August high of 1.0470 (0.9550) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as support for the kiwi went up a notch. Aussie Building Approvals were poor yesterday and a new NZ Labour Govt cash incentive to school property bought new buyers of NZD to the table. Markets now await today’s RBA Cash rate and statement later today with no expectation of a change from 0.75%. Comments on future policy could create some volatility. Australian Retail Sales and quarterly GDP should also liven up the cross into the weekend. A daily close through 1.0460 (0.9560) could spell further upside for the kiwi.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) marched higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) this week as support for the kiwi continues. The AUDNZD cross dropped to 1.0526 as a result. This is the third week straight the kiwi has outperformed the Aussie Dollar with mixed Australian data results over the week having not helped. Private Capital Expenditure fell by 0.6% in the September quarter following a decline of 0.8% in the second quarter highlighting a weakened business sector. Momentum should continue into next week for the NZD but in thinned out market conditions via US Thanksgiving holiday. Next week’s RBA cash rate announcement will be the key release, also of note Aussie Building approvals, quarterly GDP and Retail Sales should make for an interesting week. We suggest prices under 1.0616 provide extremely good buying for clients looking to convert NZD to AUD. Consideration of the volatility around next week’s risk events should be considered.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has posted more gains against the Australian Dollar (AUD) this week reaching a fresh high of 1.0560 (0.9468) This morning’s NZ Retail Sales release printed better than expected for the third quarter suggesting the NZ economy could be rebounding rather than worsening – helping to extend the 27 August high. Both central banks speak over the next 24 hours and could give us further directional cues. Failing this, Aussie Construction completed and ANZ (NZ) Business Confidence should. It’s hard to not see the kiwi go higher at this point, getting past 1.0540 (0.9490) will be tough.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended last week’s run higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 1.0580 (0.9450) pushing past the 11 week high set late August. The RBA minutes from the last meeting signalled the RBA were in a “monitoring” zone with the RBA not in any hurry to make another cut. Aussie buyers still remain nervous since jobs reports were poor last week which could continue into next week’s set of economic data. The next point of concern for the AUD is 1.0550 (0.9480) if we get a weekly close below this level there is little support through to 1.0300 (0.9710) from there. Next week’s RBA comments and NZ ANZ Business Confidence will be key.
After an eventful week in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair we have seen it flatline this week around the 1.0640 (0.9400) zone. With poor Aussie jobs data and the RBNZ leaving the cash rate unchanged at 1.0% we saw a shift from 1.0815 (0.9250) eventuate. We have nothing of note on this week’s calendar to consider only today’s RBA post 5th November policy minutes. The NZD seems to have reasonable support around current levels with the 1.0660 (0.9380) expected to hold this week. Poor US/China trade headlines will continue to support the kiwi.
All recent gains made by the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 1.0875 (0.9210) last week were undone when the RBNZ left their cash rate unchanged causing a flurry of buying excitement in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). The RBNZ caught markets out by leaving the cash rate at 1.0% going against the grain of most analysts who predicted a cut to 0.75%. The kiwi surged to 1.0630 (0.9410) where it sits just shy of this levels Friday. Aussie employment data missed the mark contracting in October -19,000 with unemployment ticking higher to 5.3% from 5.2%. This will raise concerns for the RBA when they meet next on the 3rd of December after claiming they had stopped their easing bias last week. Breaking back above 1.0660 (0.9380) the 10 week high shows a momentum swing back in favour of the kiwi. If we get a daily close below 1.0630 (0.9410) we could see price go lower.
A late flurry of support in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) into the weekly close took price to 1.0830 (0.9230) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) prior to continuing the rally into Tuesday to 1.0760 (0.9295). Support will be tested this week for the kiwi with expectations that the RBNZ will cut rates to 0.75%. Aussie Jobs reporting Thursday which is expected to fall in line or improve on recent expectations should push buyers back into the AUD. We favour the continuing AUD momentum from the early August high to continue to 1.0970 (0.9115) over the coming days/weeks.
A late flurry of support in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) into the weekly close took price to 1.0830 (0.9230) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) prior to continuing the rally into Tuesday to 1.0760 (0.9295). Support will be tested this week for the kiwi with expectations that the RBNZ will cut rates to 0.75%. Aussie Jobs reporting Thursday which is expected to fall in line or improve on recent expectations should push buyers back into the AUD. We favour the continuing AUD momentum from the early August high to continue to 1.0970 (0.9115) over the coming days/weeks.
It’s been one way traffic this week in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair with improved sentiment at the RBA taking price to fresh 13 month high around 1.0865 (0.9200). The RBA kept the cash rate at the historical low of 0.75% hinting at no further easing for a while with improvements in key data of late. For the kiwi the opposite tone developed after poor jobs numbers in the unemployment rate showed a sharp increase from 3.9% to 4.2% taking the NZD south. Looking forward into next week we have the crucial RBNZ official cash rate and monetary statement. It’s possible most of the cut is already priced into the curve but a cut would certainly bring about a fresh leg lower of sorts for the kiwi. Retesting weekly resistance at 1.0870 (0.9200) is close to home.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross has bounced around the 1.0720 (0.9330) area into Tuesday this week after closing at 1.0740 (0.9310) The kiwi has edged higher from last week’s low of 1.0790 (0.9265) as it looks to retest earlier daily resistance at 1.0680 (0.9365). Positive risk sentiment in the US/China trade war should further support the Aussie due to close economic ties between the two countries. This week’s tier one economic data has nothing of significance. We suggest price should range around current levels into next week’s Aussie midweek quarterly CPI and NZ ANZ Business Confidence.
Mid last week’s momentum in the Australian Dollar (AUD) continued into Monday outperforming the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cutting through 1.0752 (0.9300) resistance to reach 1.0762 (0.9292). Data in the pair has been thin of late but with this week’s NZ quarterly CPI and later Australian employment data publishing, we should get further clues on direction. Risk sentiment due to optimism of a “partial trade deal” in the US/China trade war has possibly supported the AUD a little more due to the close links between the Australian and Chinese economy. Resistance around the prior high of 1.0823 (0.9240) should offer relief for the kiwi, but we suspect a momentum change around Aussie employment data with expectations of lower new job numbers for September and higher unemployment.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) rose to 1.0700 (0.9345) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) late last week before returning down amid poor NZ data. ANZ Business Confidence and NZIER Business Confidence both published down on expectations in line with business pessimism not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. 35% of businesses expect worsening economic conditions heading into 2020. Today Aussie Building Approvals will print ahead of the long awaited RBA rate decision. Over the past fortnight banks and analysts have bought forward their expectation of cuts with a probability of the RBA cutting to 0.75% now priced in at 80%. Attention will mostly be over the Lowe’s comments with how he views further cuts over coming months. Later in the week Retail Sales in Australia releases with reasonable chances we will see a spike to consumer spending in August benefiting the Aussie.
Most of the action in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD), cross has been driven on the back of central bank speak. The Aussie Dollar drifted off from the post weekly open of 1.0835 (0.9230) to (1.0720) 0.9330 into Friday based on RBA and RBNZ rhetoric. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the official cash rate unchanged on Wednesday at 1.0% but said there’s still room to cut further if necessary. Meeting inflation targets and maintaining high employment are the key focus looking ahead for the central bank amid a weakening global outlook. Lowe made comment the Aussie economy is at a “gentle turning point”. We will see when the RBA meets next week to possibly cut rates – certainly most of the Australian Banks are expecting a 25 point cut to 0.75%. In theory, we should see the AUD weaken leading into the release but suspect most of the expectation of a cut will be mostly already priced into the currency.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD ) pair continues to bounce around a range between 1.0750 and 1.0840 (0.9225 and 0.9300) over the past seven days, currently trading at 1.0765 (0.9290) Tuesday lunch. RBA Governor Lowe speaks tonight amid increasing pressures by analysts and Aussie banks to cut rates below the current 1.0% as the Australian economy tries to respond from the weakest expansion period since the 2008 financial crisis. Wednesday’s RBNZ will be the local focus this week with predictions Governor Orr will retain the current 1.0% based on an aggressive 50 point cut in early August. The bullish band in the AUDNZD remains intact from the low of 1.0330 (0.9680) but a break below 1.0700 (above 0.9345) could see further pressures develop.
Current Level: 1.0763 (0.9287)
Resistance: 1.0830 (0.9300)
Support: 1.0750 (0.9235)
Last Weeks Range: 1.0749-1.0839 (0.9226-0.9303)
Early this week we saw price in the Australian Dollar (AUD) , New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair reach a yearly low of 0.9235 (1.0830). Price didn’t stay long at this level retracing back through the weekly open on not so flash Aussie employment data. Australian jobs data released higher than expected with an additional 34,700 people being added to the workforce, but it was the unemployment rate rising to 5.3% from 5.2% which pressured the Aussie lower through Friday. Next week’s RBNZ rate announcement followed by the Orr’s statement will give us further clues as to NZD movement, for now momentum is firmly with the AUD in the current bullish channel.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9265 AUDNZD 1.0784
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9234- 0.9304 AUDNZD 1.0748- 1.0829
Although Chinese data took the Australian Dollar (AUD) lower off this week’s open it has fared ok considering ongoing risk factors. With price trading around the 0.9240 (1.0820) area Tuesday lunch, down from 0.9295 (1.0760) on the week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), data has been the supporting difference for the Aussie since the beginning of September post the RBA announcement. Thursday’s NZ GDP q/q reading offers an opportunity for the kiwi to regain recent losses. Australian jobs data follows with figures predicted to be good, in line with July’s buoyant result. Direction at the moment favours a retest of prior support around 0.9115 (1.0970) through to next week’s RBNZ announcement.
Current Level: 0.9248 (1.0805)
Resistance: 0.9345 (1.0970)
Support: 0.9115 (1.0700)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9235-0.9395 (1.0644-1.0828)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross sits just off pivotal support of 0.9320 (1.0732) at 0.9325 (1.0722) Friday after extending last week’s support for the AUD from 0.9385 (1.0655). The kiwi has remained on the backfoot for most of the week reflecting last week’s positive Aussie data releases. NAB Business confidence showed a slight deterioration in August with Westpac consumer sentiment also printing down on expectations with pressures continuing on family finances and concerns around near term economic outlook, both had little effect as the Aussie pushed on. We have another light week ahead on the economic docket for the pair with just NZ GDP q/q and Aussie employment the focus. The AUD may hold the upper hand over the next two weeks through to the RBA cash rate announcement where they are expected to cut to 0.75% from 1.0%
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9320 AUDNZD 1.0725
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9321- 0.9398 AUDNZD 1.0640- 1.0728
After the Australian Dollar (AUD) broke lower towards the weekly close Friday to 0.9410 (1.0630) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) it has recovered into Tuesday to 0.9370 (1.0675) with the kiwi remaining on the back foot from the 6 August high of 0.9745 (1.0262). Data in the pair this week is light with only business confidence to publish on both sides of the ditch to impact price. Firm momentum for the Aussie looks to be the ongoing theme this week continuing on from last week’s positive data reflections. Getting past heavy resistance around 0.9345 (1.0700) could pose an issue, if we see a break below here the kiwi could be in trouble.
Current Level: 0.9372 (1.0665)
Resistance: 0.9410 (1.0730)
Support: 0.9320 (1.0627)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9339-0.9406 (1.0632-1.0708)
This week’s Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross has been choppy pivoting around the 0.9350 (1.0690) area for most of the week. Bouncing higher off the low of 0.9340 (1.0710) several times suggests the recent move has been exhausted for now. We would have expected price movement to have been more supportive of AUD given recent positive data. The RBA left rates unchanged Tuesday at 1.0% with Lowe’s comments perceived as less dovish- saying, the outlook for the global economy remains reasonable and will ease policy on an “as needed” basis. Inflation will remain just under the 2% target through to 2020. Next week will be quiet for economic data. A break below 0.9315 (1.0730) could signal further downward bias.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9356 AUDNZD 1.0679
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9338- 0.9399 AUDNZD 1.0639- 1.0708
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross reached a fresh low of 0.9353 (1.0690) at Friday’s close before recovering to 0.9390 (1.0650) through to Tuesday. However the bearish channel from the 6 August high of 0.9745 (1.0260) remains in place with heavy support around the 0.9345 (1.0700) area in play. The kiwi will be taking instructions this week from the Aussie data releases as there are several price moving items to publish including the RBA Cash rate today at 4.30 NZT (1.0% unchanged expected) and quarterly GDP Wednesday. Data clearly will dictate price moves with the pair trading anywhere between 0.9250 (1.0810) and 0.9550 (1.0470) at the end of the week – we support a NZD push higher.
Current Level:0.9376 (1.0654)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9352-0.9455 (1.0576-1.0693)
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has outperformed the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) for the fourth straight week taking price to 0.9370 (1.0660) Friday. The bearish channel from the 6 August high of 0.9745 (1.0260) remains in place with a 0.9345 (1.0700) retest looming. The kiwi has never recovered from the 50 point cash rate cut on the 7th of August. Data out in Australia in the form of construction completed showed a further slowdown for the second quarter which is worry for the Australian economy with the chances of a recession still a possibility in the coming quarters. ANZ Business Confidence in NZ plunged to a 2008 low putting added pressure on the kiwi Thursday. If price can break past 0.9345 (1.0700) the kiwi is in real trouble of going much lower. Next week the RBA will announce their cash rate – no change is expected just yet from 1.0%
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9377 AUDNZD 1.0654
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9366- 0.9495 AUDNZD 1.0531- 1.0676
After the Australian Dollar’s (AUD) brief weekly open setback to 0.9495 (1.0530) the Aussie has regained its momentum against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) into Tuesday posting 0.9435 (1.0600) just shy of last week’s low. Direction in August has mainly been Aussie supportive but with Building Approval figures publishing Friday potentially looking shaky based on a poor June reading of -1.2% the Aussie’s run could be short term. ANZ Business confidence publishes first on Thursday and will show us a broad picture of NZ business health. A bounce off the early June level of 0.9420 (1.0620) may offer crucial support for the kiwi
Current Level: 0.9426 (1.0608)
Resistance: 0.9565 (1.0630)
Support: 0.9410 (1.0455)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9420-0.9495 (1.0532-1.0616)
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has underperformed its Australian cousin (AUD) this week, grinding lower to currently trade around 0.9425 (1.0610). The RBA minutes released on Tuesday had little impact, and the only other significant release this week will be NZ retail sales data due in the next hour. The market is expecting a small gain of 0.1%. For now, the focus for the pair remains on the downside and we expect further losses to test minor support around 0.9380 (1.0661), and then potentially 0.9320 (1.0730), over the coming week.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9422 AUDNZD 1.0614
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9420 – 0.9506 AUDNZD 1.0520 – 1.0616
A break below 0.9570 (1.0450) the recent bearish channel from mid April suggests the Australian Dollar (AUD) may have turned a corner against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Price this week has continued through to 0.9478 (1.0550) a continuation of last week’s fantastic Aussie employment data. Today we lead into the RBA meeting minutes from the 5th August with investors suggesting the RBA will take a watch and learn approach over the coming months and change policy as necessary. NZ Retail Sales prints Friday the only other data of importance on the calendar this week. The NZDAUD cross I would suggest won’t travel far from the nest this week.
Current Level: 0.9478 (1.0543)
Resistance: 0.9570 (1.0630)
Support: 0.9410 (1.0450)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9462-0.9549 (1.0472-1.0569)
With no data on the calendar this week for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) it took its cues from a rather busy Australian Dollar (AUD) – price sits Friday at 0.9490 after opening at 0.9530 (1.0490). Australian wage price inflation improved to 0.6% from 0.5% for the June quarter including an increase to the number of new people employed rising from a flat 500 in June to 41,000 in July after an expected 15,000 was predicted. The unemployment rate stayed at 5.2% since rising in March from 5.0%, overall Australian employment figures remain solid and in a healthy spot giving the RBA something to consider. Technically the cross has broken past 0.9560 (1.0460) channel support and looks to retest 0.9440 (1.0590) in the coming days. NZ Retails Sales in the only highlight on the calendar next week.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9482 AUDNZD 1.0536
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9484- 0.9567 AUDNZD 1.0452- 1.0544
After a massive week for the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair after both central banks made rate announcements price has consolidated around 0.9550 (1.0470) into Tuesday after bouncing off 0.9745 (1.0265) earlier last week. It’s been quite a number of months since we have seen such a shift in this cross. This week it’s only Aussie data on the calendar to focus and drive price from its current happy place. If today’s NAB Business confidence and later Aussie Employment data prints well we could see the Aussie push another leg higher against the kiwi to the next resistance point of 0.9410 (1.0630) representing early May 2019 levels. The long term trendline suggests we need a close below 0.9505 (1.0520) to confirm new AUD bullish momentum.
Current Level: 0.9537 (1.0485)
Resistance: 0.9570 (1.0520)
Support: 0.9505 (1.0450)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9505-0.9742 (1.0265-1.0521)
What a tussle it has been this week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair with both central banks making interest rate announcements. From the start we saw the AUD drift out of favour to 0.9745 (1.0260) to reach a September 2016 high on the back of the RBA statement and strong NZ employment data. The RBA left rates unchanged at 1.0% and said downside risks remain – comments were in line with other central bank comments when they said the global outlook remains questionable and inflation expectations low. Wednesday’s RBNZ cash rate announcement stole the show by shocking markets by cutting the official cash rate to 1.0% from 1.5% in a move where markets were expecting only a 25 basis point shift lower to 1.25%. It was an unbelievable decision given the only time the RBNZ has cut rates by 50 points in the past was after the 9/11 terrorist attack, during the GFC, and post 2011 Christchurch earthquakes. Price reversed hard after the release to 0.9540 (1.0480) continuing to drift lower to 0.9505 (1.0520) Friday with the AUD pegging back earlier losses to a four week high. Have we seen a trend change in the NZDAUD cross? I suspect not, we will be a better gauge over the following week with Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence and crucial Aussie employment data Thursday.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9521 AUDNZD 1.0497
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9505- 0.9742 AUDNZD 1.0264- 1.0520
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) surged through recent resistance around 0.9660 (1.0350) to reach 0.9745 (1.0263) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) Tuesday after a surprise to NZ Unemployment figures. The NZ Unemployment for the June quarter printed at 3.9% down from 4.2% in the March quarter. This was represented in an increase of 9,000 to the NZ workforce leaving the total number of unemployed in NZ at 109,000. This afternoon’s RBA cash rate announcement and statement is now the focus with expectations of no cut just yet to the 1.0%. Special interest around how governor Lowe perceives the local economy and how future data may influence further easing later in the year should hold the attention of markets. Tomorrow’s RBNZ cash rate announcement is next with a cut expected to 1.25%. With NZ employment now said to be at full capacity comments by governor Orr will be key for gauging future easing. With price around the 0.9675 area direction is extremely tough to gauge, at the close of business tomorrow I’m guessing price could be back around 0.9600 (1.0420)
Current Level: 0.9673 (1.0332)
Resistance: 0.9740 (1.0450)
Support: 0.9570 (1.0270)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9564-0.9742 (1.0265-1.0456)
The Australian dollar (AUD) tried to stage something of a comeback against the New Zealand dollar (NZD) this week, but in the past 12 hours a surprise announcement from US president Trump regarding new tariffs on China has completely undermined it. Wednesday’s release of disappointing NZ business confidence data followed by stronger than forecast Australian inflation figures, saw the NZDAUD trade to low of 0.9564, from above 0.9600 prior. But in the wake of the surprise US announcement on tariffs overnight, the AUD has seen significant selling pressure driving the cross back up over 0.9600 to test trend resistance at 0.9652. In the next couple of hours we have Australian Retail Sales data to digest with the market looking for a gain of 0.3%. The Aussie is certainly out of favor at the moment and it’s going to take a good retail sales number to turn it around. Topside resistance continues to come in around 0.9650, while key downside support is now seen at 0.9535. Monday is an Australian bank holiday but next week should be any anything but quiet. We have NZ employment data to digest along with central bank meetings from both the RBA and RBNZ. It may well be a defining week for the NZDAUD pair.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9624 AUDNZD 1.0380
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9562- 0.9650 AUDNZD 1.0363- 1.0457
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) has been extremely range bound- especially over the past 10 days. Remaining between 0.9570 (1.0450) and 0.9615 (1.0400) since mid-July it’s tough to call any break either way from these flat levels, currently 0.9605. If anything price in the bullish channel since April looks to make a move back to around 0.9550 levels with topside limited. With so much focused offshore this week with the FOMC announcement and NFP Friday it’s not hard to see why this pair has been relegated to the back stalls. On the calendar we have ANZ Business Confidence tomorrow as well as Australian quarterly CPI and later AUD Retail Sales to hopefully get things moving.
Current Level: 0.9603 (1.0409)
Resistance: 0.9635 (1.0450)
Support: 0.9570 (1.0380)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9566-0.9620 (1.0395-1.0454)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross has bounced around a fair bit having reached 0.9630 (1.0385) Monday, the high before drifting lower to 0.9565 (1.0454) Wednesday, back to 0.9620 (1.0394) Thursday and 0.9582 (1.0436) Friday where we sit currently. RBA governor Lowe staunchly defended his mandate for a 2-3% inflation target but said rates will stay low for some time leaving chances of further rate cuts to come data dependant. NZ Trade Balance also gave the kiwi a short boost after printing at 365M from the 100M expected. Overall the pair still sits comfortably within the long term bullish trend from 18 April’s 0.9315 (1.0735) with it looking like it may again break past 0.9600 levels into August providing 0.9530 (1.0490) is not broken. With the 8th August RBNZ expected to cut rates this must be factored in for any buyers of AUD.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9580 AUDNZD 1.0431
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9565- 0.9629 AUDNZD 1.0385- 1.0454
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) remains stubbornly elevated against its Australian cousin, the AUD. There has been little we can isolate as a key driver for the pair over the past week, it seems the NZD has just outperformed the AUD as wider market influences impact each individual currency. None of this has changed our base view that the pair is somewhat overvalued currently and we still look for a move back toward 0.9450/9500 at some stage ahead of the RBNZ meeting in early August. There is some strong technical resistance around the 0.9630 area, and it just so happens that corresponds to the high reached in the past 12 hours. This week’s economic calendar is a little light with only NZ Trade Balance data and a speech from RBA Gov Lowe of any note.
Current Level: 0.5954 (1.0434)
Resistance: 0.9630 (1.0526)
Support: 0.9500 (1.0384)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9539-0.9628 (1.0386-1.0483)
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) outperformed its Australian cousin, the AUD, this week although it’s hard to pinpoint exactly what the driver was. Most of the gains came on Wednesday night as both currencies surged against the USD, and the pair briefly traded over 0.9600 yesterday before Australian employment data saw the Australian dollar claw back some ground against the kiwi. Support is now seen around 0.9505 and resistance around 0.9620. For clients looking to convert NZD to AUD, we still recommend taking advantage of any moves back toward or over 0.9600. Our base case scenario is still for the pair to drift lower as we draw closer the RBNZ rate meeting in Early August. Next week is a quiet one data wise with just the trade balance from NZ and a speech from RBA Governor Lowe of any note.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9589 AUDNZD 1.0429
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9531 – 0.9616 AUDNZD 1.0399 – 1.0492
With both the NZD and AUD making significant gains across the board over the past week, the NZDAUD cross rate has held relatively steady, stuck in a range around a mid point of 0.9550 or so. We have seen a few tests toward the weeks high of 0.9577, but they have all been short lived and we believe any strength toward that level represents good value buying of AUD. We expect the pair to drift lower over the coming weeks as we approach the August RBNZ meeting and a widely expected interest rate cut. Key support currently comes in around 0.9500 while topside resistance is seen around 0.9600. RBA minutes are set for release in the next hour, focus will then turn to Australian employment data on Thursday.
Current Level: 0.9548 (1.0474)
Resistance: 0.9600 (1.0526)
Support: 0.9500 (1.0417)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9494-0.9577 (1.0442-1.0533)
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has outperformed its Australian cousin this week, driving the NZDAUD cross rate to a high of 0.9577 (AUDNZD 1.0442). The AUD under-performance has come on the back of a couple of weak surveys. Both consumer sentiment and business confidence declined last month reinforcing the outlook for sluggish economic activity going forward. That being said, we have just had two rapid fire interest rate cuts from the RBA and there is some upcoming fiscal stimulus in the form of tax cuts from the Morrison government, so it may be wise not to get too carried away with expectations of further gains in this pair. There is significant resistance around 0.9600 and that may well continue to cap the pair. We could easily see the cross range between the broad parameters of 0.9400 and 0.9600 over the coming weeks. With that in mind, clients looking to convert NZD to AUD should take advantage of any further strength toward that 0.9600 area.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9551 AUDNZD 1.0470
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9484 – 0.9577 AUDNZD 1.0442 – 1.0544
The Australian dollar (AUD) has outperformed the New Zealand dollar over the past week, and that trend may well continue over the coming days. Ever since the RBA cut interest rates last week, and delivered a less dovish than expected statement, the AUD has performed reasonably well. Clients looking to convert NZD to AUD should view any potential move back toward 0.9550 as a good opportunity to deal. We suspect the pair may well be heading back toward 0.9450, which is an area it seemed very comfortable around throughout April, May and much of June. There is little from NZ to dive the pair this week, while from Australia we get Business Confidence and Consumer Sentiment data.
Current Level: 0.9498 (1.0528)
Resistance: 0.9585 (1.0588)
Support: 0.9445 (1.0433)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9484-0.9590 (1.0427-1.0544)
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) momentum north was abruptly disrupted Tuesday after reaching 0.9580 (1.0440) reversing off a dime lower against a surging AUD. The Aussie has outperformed all currencies this week mainly coming from a less than dovish RBA governor Lowe statement even though the RBA cut rates from 1.25% to 1.0%. The first time back to back cuts have happened in seven years as the RBA tries to front foot ongoing sluggish growth. Something you don’t see very often is a currency moving higher off a rate cut with price back at 0.9515 (1.0510). Slightly upbeat Building Approval numbers and Trade Balance also reinforced a bullish AUD. With slowing Aussie GDP and wage growth we may see the RBA cut rates to 0.75% by year end.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9535 AUDNZD 1.0478
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 1.0427- 1.0511 AUDNZD 0.9513- 0.9590
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to outperform the Australian Dollar (AUD) into Tuesday to 0.9580 (1.0440) continuing last week’s bull rally from 0.9495 (1.0533) from the previous Monday’s open. We said last week we thought nothing would halt the run through 0.9500 (1.0525) and we were correct, not even this morning’s soft NZIER Business Confidence has been reflected in price with expectations now that the RBNZ will cut twice this year. Today’s RBA though is the immediate focus with analysts split over a cut today or whether the RBA will leave it until August. If price is any reflection on currency movement expectations as we look at a weaker AUD, we could see a continuation higher through 0.9600 (1.0420) resistance if a cut takes place. However, it’s a risky call if you are holding NZD with price looking very favourable where it is. One mustn’t be too greedy, take your risk out of the equation and convert prior to 4.30pm NZT today.
Current Level:0.9573 (1.0437)
Resistance: 0.9600 (1.0500)
Support: 0.9525 (1.0420)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9498-0.9590 (1.0427-1.0529)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has had the edge over the Australian Dollar (AUD), the second consecutive week of declines for the Aussie. That is not to say the AUD has been weak, on the contrary as it has been well supported against a range of other currencies except the kiwi. Commodity markets and a general shift this week to “risk on” sentiment should have benefited the AUD more than it has with price not reflecting where we think the current levels should be. Closing in on 0.9600 (1.0415) at around 0.9570 (1.0450) we see nothing looking like stopping the bull NZD rally. Not even soft NZ ANZ Business Confidence could stem the flow. The RBNZ kept the cash rate unchanged at 1.50% with governor Orr supporting market sentiment that further easing is required. Cutting at the 7 August meeting now is almost fully expected and priced into the curve with Orr reconfirming risks associated with falling employment and inflation. Next week’s RBA cash rate announcement will be the focus with expectations the Aussie could come under selling pressures even though no cut is expected. Buyers of AUD can now book in prices above 0.9500 – fill your boots.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9566 AUDNZD 1.0446
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 1.0441- 1.0549 AUDNZD 0.9479- 0.9577
The Australian Dollar (AUD) picked up support early Monday travelling to 0.9480 (1.0550) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) but soon came under threat from RBA Lowe comments retracing to 0.9515 (1.0510). NZ Trade Balance gave the kiwi a further boost into Tuesday when Trade Balance figures showed a rise to 264M published instead of the predicted 200M. Markets now await the RBNZ cash rate announcement tomorrow along with Adrian Orr’s monetary statement. We suspect he will remain dovish in his interpretation of the NZ economy generally. Broadly speaking the cross is still happy to bounce around within the past four week range of 0.9445 (1.0590) and 0.9540 (1.0480). Watch for currency markets to be volatile during the G20 meeting starting Thursday in Osaka, Japan.
Current Level: 0.9533 (1.0482)
Resistance: 0.9545 (1.0580)
Support: 0.9450 (1.0480)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9480-0.9543 (1.0479-1.0549)
After starting the week around 0.9450 (1.0580) the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has edged higher to 0.9515 Friday. It’s been volatile but stayed broadly within recent ranges, overnight briefly reaching 0.9538 (1.0485). The RBA minutes signalled further easing in light of higher than expected unemployment, further labour market issues would force their hand to cut. We think one cut is priced in but two is not yet for 2019. NZ first quarter GDP printed positive helping boost the NZD. Prices over 0.9400 as we keep saying represents good buying of AUD.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9511 AUDNZD 1.0505
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9450- 0.9538 AUDNZD 1.0478- 1.0581
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is still bouncing around its current ranges against the Australian Dollar (AUD) popping between 0.9435 (1.0600) and 0.9525 (1.0500) with a weekly high of 0.9490 (1.0537) – currently trading just shy of this mark at 0.9485 (1.0544). The cross awaits further fundamental change to gauge direction. This afternoon’s RBA minutes from the 4 June Monetary Policy meeting should give us more clues. Attention then will fall to quarterly NZ GDP Thursday, 0.6% growth is expected bang on forecast and equals the result for last quarter 2018. Anything over 0.9400 represents historically, extremely good levels to buy AUD.
Current Level: 0.9476 (1.0545)
Resistance: 0.9525 (1.0580)
Support: 0.9400 (1.0500)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9444-0.9519 (1.0505-1.0589)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair has been choppy this week maintaining the recent range theme between 0.9450 (1.0580) and 0.9525 (1.0500) trading at 0.9480 (1.0550) midday Friday. Australian Unemployment rose to 5.2% from 5.1% with the change in workforce numbers increasing to 42,000 ahead of the predicted 16,000. The problem though was most (39,000) fall under the part time listings distorting the numbers. Markets focused on the rise to unemployment which sent the Aussie lower. The question is are the numbers good enough for the RBA to halt a rate cut in July or will they wait until August, I’m picking August. Next week’s NZ quarterly GDP will be the focus. Buyers of AUD shouldn’t hold for much post 0.9500 and get overly greedy as these levels represent very good buying.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9469 AUDNZD 1.0553
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9451- 0.9527 AUDNZD 1.0496- 1.0580
The New Zealand Dollar broke above the five week high of 0.9505 (1.0520) late last week to close the week around 0.9527 (1.0496). Australian Trade Balance published below expectations of 5.05B at 4.78B making sure the AUD was kept under pressure. On the calendar this week we have NAB Business confidence later today and employment figures Thursday. No economic news is to publish of note this week for the kiwi. Technically the cross is trading happily around 0.9460 pivoting around the 100 day moving average as it has done since late April.
Current Level: 0.9485 (1.0529)
Resistance: 0.9525 (1.0630)
Support: 0.9410 (1.0500)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9428-0.9525 (1.0499-1.0607)
The AUD is suffering from the dual handicaps of an RBA rate cut , and yesterday’s weak GDP figure reinforcing the likelihood of more rate cuts to come. With the AUD peaking yesterday against the USD at 0.7007, its highest level since early May it ended lower on the GDP result back around 0.6970. Consistent failure to hold over the 0.70 level maintains systemic weakness…After NZD/AUD hitting a high of 0.9516 overnight this cross is back around the 0.9490 mark with the NZD looking far more resilient on this cross than the AUD. We now favour the NZD on this cross with potential for 0.9525 resistance to break which would herald an initial move to 0.9550 Today’s Aussie April trade balance will receive plenty of attention and may kick off further AUD weakness.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9501 AUDNZD 1.0515
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9419- 0.9525 AUDNZD 1.0498- 1.0616
Miraculously the Australian Dollar (AUD) has edged higher against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) over the week form the open at 0.9460 (1.0570) to 0.9410 (1.0625). With no data out this week in Australia we have seen a little NZD weakness develop after ANZ Business Confidence released slightly down on expectations of -37.5 at -32.0 with manufacturing the most positive sector. A net 32% of businesses say they are not optimistic towards growth over the coming year. As the RBA are expected to cut rates on the 4th June meeting, we see further downside develop in the AUD. Some analysts are predicting three further cuts this year – if this is confirmed the AUD is gone for all money. Today’s Building Approvals should confirm direction. Clients converting AUD for NZD should consider levels below 0.9450 (1.0580)
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9408 AUDNZD 1.0620
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9409- 0.9473 AUDNZD 1.0556- 1.0628
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has continued to trade sideways against the Australian Dollar (AUD) operating in a tight range between 0.9435 (1.0598) and 0.9480 (1.0550) as markets await further direction in the pair. With RBA’s Lowe signalling a cut at the 4th June meeting and another possible one or two more this year this should keep price movement above 0.9300 for the better part of 2019. Thursday’s Australian Building Approvals I’m sure won’t be pretty, first our focus will be on tomorrow’s ANZ Business Confidence and the RBNZ Financial Stability Report. Clients converting NZD for AUD should consider levels above 0.9500 (1.0525)
Current Level: 0.9458 (1.0566)
Resistance: 0.9480 (1.0600)
Support: 0.9435 (1.0550)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9436-0.9477 (1.0551-1.0597)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar cross bounced around a tight range all week between 0.9474 (1.0555) and 0.9434 (1.0600). Initially the weekend Federal Elections won by the Lib’s boosted the Aussie through to 0.9434 (1.0600) as stability returned momentarily to the economy. Tuesday’s RBA minutes gave us nothing new but later that afternoon Lowe’s statement saying he was more than likely cutting the cash rate on the June 4 meeting weakened the Aussie into Wednesday. Westpac have revised their view on two rate cuts in 2019 in June and August to now June, August and November. This will bring the cash rate down to 0.75%. If this eventuates, we will see and significantly higher NZD/AUD leading into 2020 especially with markets expecting one further rate cut for the RBNZ this year to 1.25%.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9460 AUDNZD 1.0563
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 1.0554- 1.0597 AUDNZD 0.9436- 0.9475
Poor Australian Unemployment data pushed the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) back to 0.9505 (1.0520) Thursday after figures showed a rise in the unemployment rate from 5.0% to 5.2% weighed on the Aussie. This posed the question how long the RBA will now hold out before cutting rates. The weekend Federal elections boosted the Aussie on the Monday open when the liberal’s surprise win by Scott Morrison pushed price to 0.9450 ( 1.0580). Risks in the NZD/AUD cross remain to the topside as the Aussie continues to underperform. Today’s RBA Minutes at 1.30 NZT shouldn’t throw up any surprises except further downside rhetoric. Clients looking to convert NZD to AUD should consider levels above 0.9450 (1.0582)
Current Level: 0.9445 (1.0580)
Resistance: 0.9500 (1.0660)
Support: 0.9380 (1.0522)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9429-0.9505 (1.0520-1.0605)
Disappointing Australian employment data weighed on the Australian dollar (AUD) yesterday helping to drive the NZDAUD exchange rate to the week’s high at 0.9505 (1.0521 AUDNZD). The Australian unemployment rate jumped from 5.0% to 5.2% and that’s caused more commentators to suggest an interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may come as early as next month. We also have the Australian Federal election to digest this weekend, with polls showing a very close race. In the current environment it seems the risks for the NZDAUD remain to the topside as the AUD underperforms the NZD. Initial resistance comes in around 0.9530 (1.0493) and that looks to be a viable target over the coming days. Clients looking to convert NZD to AUD in the near term should take advantage of any move toward that resistance level.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9480 AUDNZD 1.0549
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9419 – 0.9504 AUDNZD 1.0522 – 1.0617
Both the RBA and RBNZ offered a flurry of excitement during both cash rate releases last week. The RBA left rates unchanged as we expected rallying the Aussie before the RBNZ cut rates from 1.75% to 1.50% sending the kiwi lower in another wave of downside flow to 0.9325 (1.0724) before turning higher. After a volatile week the pair closed at 0.9430 (1.0603) with the kiwi extending its dominance over the AUD into Tuesday to 0.9470 (1.0560). Further topside through 0.9500 (1.0525) looks inevitable hinging on Aussie job’s data Thursday which is expected to print well in line with positive March numbers. Fundamentally the NZD should be weaker but may stay up at these topish levels for a while. Clients looking to transfer NZD to AUD should not get to greedy and wait for 0.9600, but look at targeting anything at current levels around 0.9450 (1.0580) to 0.9550 (1.0470)
Current Level: 0.9465 (1.0555)
Resistance: 0.9485 (1.0715)
Support: 0.9330 (1.0546)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9326-0.9474 (1.0555-1.0723)
With both RBA and RBNZ releasing cash rate announcements this week we have seen increased volatility. The RBA left rates unchanged as we expected rallying the Aussie from 0.9443 (1.0590) to 0.9400 (1.0640) on the release, before the RBNZ cut rates from 1.75% to 1.50% sending the kiwi lower in another wave of downside flow to 0.9325 (1.0724). In true NZD fashion it recovered some of these losses Thursday retracing back towards 0.9430 (1.0605) in what looks like a strangle act of defiance. RBNZ Governor confirming the move was necessary to counteract the outlook for employment and low inflation seen on the horizon. We think the current price at 0.9420 (1.0615) represents good value for buyers of AUD as we expect further downside in the kiwi over the coming weeks with inflation tracking lower.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9418 AUDNZD 1.0607
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9325- 0.9486 AUDNZD 1.0542- 1.0724
The New Zealand Dollar / Australian Dollar pair (NZD/AUD) remains range bound ahead of this week’s RBA and RBNZ rate announcements. Trading between 0.9423 (1.0612) and 0.9485 (1.0543) since late April the Aussie has done well to remain resilient with data disappointing of late. Pressures still exist for both currencies with 50/50 calls between both central banks cutting rates. We expect the RBA to make slightly more probability of cutting rates, if this eventuates we should see price rally to 0.9500 (1.0525) prior to the RBNZ tomorrow. At this point though it’s tough to analyse where price might be in the pair at the close of the week with such volatility on the table. Today’s Aussie Retail Sales data, 3 hours ahead of the RBA, is kick off.
Current Level: 0.9442 (1.0585)
Resistance: 0.9488 (1.0620)
Support: 0.9415 (1.0540)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9421-0.9496 (1.0531-1.0615)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair trades at 0.9455 (1.0577) Friday lunch, 10 points away from the weekly open. Happy to keep within recent ranges the cross has had little over the week to be excited by with data light. NZ job’s numbers initially sent the kiwi lower to 0.9423 (1.0612) with a poor report showing the workforce had contracted in March. Aussie Building Approvals prints today, the last important data to release prior to the RBA announcement next Tuesday. So, RBA Tuesday and RBNZ Wednesday will provide us with plenty to consider with both central banks considering cutting. The NZ cash rate has been unchanged for 2.5 years at 1.75%. Volume in the cross will be light until Tuesday with anyone’s guess as to where price may be this time next week. I am going to take a guess and say around 0.9500 (1.0530) but one thing’s for sure, volatility awaits.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9454 AUDNZD 1.0566
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9423- 0.9482 AUDNZD 1.0546- 1.0612
Weaker than predicted quarterly CPI figures hurt the Australian Dollar (AUD) last week, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) retracing earlier losses back to 0.9460 (1.0570) from a low of 0.9345 (1.0700). AUD CPI came in at 0.0% instead of the predicted 0.2% putting pressure back on the Aussie leading into thin Easter trading weekly close. NZ ANZ Business Confidence published slightly changed at -37.5, based on -38.0 shifting around price but not having any significant impact. Tomorrow’s NZ employment numbers release giving us a deeper look into the NZ economic status and an insight as to RBNZ slant next week.
Current Level: 0.9457 (1.0566)
Resistance: 0.9480 (1.0715)
Support: 0.9330 (1.0550)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9359-0.9474 (1.0555-1.0685)
The New Zealand dollar / Australian dollar (NZD/AUD) cross has been relatively range bound over the past week trading between 0.9334 and 0.9389 (1.0714 and 1.0651). There hasn’t been much in the way of economic data to drive the pair since last week’s soft NZ CPI data and Australia’s better than expected employment numbers. Today however we do have Australian inflation data set for release and this could well set the tone for the rest of the week. The market is looking for an unchanged result from the prior reading of 0.4%. We would suggest the risks to that outlook are to the downside.
Current Level: 0.9371 (1.0672)
Resistance: 0.9500 (1.0753)
Support: 0.9300 (1.0526)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9334-0.9389 (1.0651-1.0714)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains weak against the Australian Dollar (AUD) dropping to 0.9450 (1.0590) Friday. Aussie data has been good over the last couple of weeks as well as the RBA assistant governor Debelle commenting in an optimistic tone. He will pay close attention to housing data over the next period which will give him clearer indication as to when to cut rates. Coming off the late March high of 0.9730 (1.0275) it has been all AUD for 3 weeks now. We view strong support in the pair at 0.9370 (1.0670). If next week’s NZ quarterly CPI is poor and Aussie jobs figures print well we could see this support tested. Next Friday is Good Friday holiday so markets will be closed.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9429 AUDNZD 1.0601
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9424- 0.9494 AUDNZD 1.0532- 1.0611
The Australian Dollar (AUD) maintained its dominance over the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) last week reaching a fresh level of 0.9460 (1.0570). Better Aussie data has boosted the AUD and pushed the cross through support at 0.9580 (1.0440) with further momentum expected to 0.9370 (1.0670) as the kiwi weakens. Aussie Retail Sales and Trade Balance both printed above expectation pushing buyers into the Aussie across the board. The first significant data in the pair is tomorrow when Westpac Consumer Sentiment releases, this is followed by RBA assistant governor Debelle speaking. We suspect price in the cross may drift lower until next week’s slew of economic data releases including Aussie jobs numbers.
Current Level: 0.9462 (1.0560)
Resistance: 0.9580 (1.0670)
Support: 0.9370 (1.0440)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9457-0.9485 (1.0433-1.0574)
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has had the edge over the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) this week extending last week’s gains from the opening price of 0.9580 (1.0440) to 0.9495 (1.0530). The Aussie’s only blip was a dovish RBA with price receding lower momentarily before returning to favour as Investors bid the Aussie up on surprisingly good Aussie data. Retail Sales printed at 0.8% above the estimate of 0.3% and Trade Balance also at 4.8B from the 3.71B markets were expecting boosted AUD. A quiet week ahead on the economic calendar for the pair with Aussie Westpac consumer sentiment Wednesday. The 2019 bullish rally in the kiwi has ended this week when price travelled back below 0.9580 (1.0440), perhaps this is a sign of further downside for the kiwi.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9487 AUDNZD 1.0531
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9487- 0.9595 AUDNZD 1.0422- 1.0540
The Australian Dollar (AUD) made up ground against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) over the middle stages of last week pushing back through heavy support around 0.9660 (1.0350) to reach 0.9570 (1.0450) before closing the week at 0.9590 (1.0430). The Aussie support has continued through into Monday with the cross trading back at the low of 0.9570 (1.0450) before (NZIER) NZ Business confidence printed down on expectations – the cross extending to 0.9544 (1.0478) where it currently trades at the six week low. This afternoon’s RBA cash rate announcement and statement now holds market attention with the rate expected to remain unchanged at 1.50% with a dovish slant to policy.
Current Level: 0.9542 (1.0468)
Resistance: 0.9615 (1.0540)
Support: 0.9490 (1.0400)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9544-0.9725 (1.0283-1.0478)
The Australian Dollar (AUD) made up ground against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) over the week pushing back through heavy support at 0.9660 (1.0350) to reach 0.9570 (1.0450) The RBNZ cash rate remains unchanged at 1.75% for now- but a dovish slant by governor Orr after markets were expecting more of a neutral view sent the NZD lower across the board and punters wondering when the next cut will be. A weaker global outlook and struggling momentum in domestic growth the cause with employment operating at near its maximum capacity. With the RBNZ falling in line with other central banks we should now see a weakened kiwi develop over the following months. Perhaps our late 2018 view of 0.9000 (1.1100) -0.9100 (1.0990) levels could eventuate in the coming months.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9564 AUDNZD 1.0448
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9568- 0.9732 AUDNZD 1.0275- 1.0451
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues its merry way south against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) after breaking through 0.9700 (1.0309) again this week to a new high of 0.9732 (1.0275) as the kiwi momentum continues. Last week’s Aussie job numbers surprised, pushing buyers momentarily into the AUD but bouncing off 0.9700 (1.0310) the NZD regained its mojo. NZ Trade Balance surprised to the topside at 12M based on -200M for the month of march with milk powder, milk and cheese leading the way for strong exports after figures showed a poor release in February of -914M. RBNZ cash rate releases tomorrow and is widely expected to remain unchanged at 1.75%.
Current Level: 0.9711 (1.0297)
Resistance: 0.9737 (1.0370)
Support: 0.9643 (1.0270)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9642-0.9731 (1.0276-1.0371)
Price in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair has swung between a low of 0.9640 (1.0373) and high of 0.9710 (1.0300) this week based on a couple of significant Thursday economic releases. NZ quarterly GDP took the cross from 0.9660 (1.0350) to the high after printing at an unexpected 0.6%. Australian jobs data followed with the cross retracing to 0.9670 (1.0340) after what was a benign jobs count with 4,600 new people entering the workforce. It was the unemployment figure of 4.9% over the expected 5.0% markets focused on causing the Aussie dollar rally. Currently sitting around the 0.9680 area price should remain around current levels until next week’s RBNZ cash rate announcement. No Australian economic data is on the docket next week.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9684 AUDNZD 1.0318
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9639- 0.9708 AUDNZD 1.0300- 1.0374
While the big picture theme in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair is still trending higher, the price has edged lower back to 0.9645 (1.0368) Tuesday. Last week the cross reached a high of 0.9715 (1.0293) a yearly high. This morning Westpac consumer sentiment printed slightly worse than markets were expecting at 103.8 as NZ consumers are concerned about the economic outlook. This is the lowest level reading since 2008. Thursdays NZ GDP and Friday’s Aussie job’s number holds the key to direction. We suspect a retest of last week’s level is a reasonable probability.
Current Level: 0.9644 (1.0367)
Resistance: 0.9590 (1.0295)
Support: 0.9715 (1.0430)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9640-0.9715 (1.0294-1.0373)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to roam around the 0.9700 area after reaching a low this week of 0.9656 (1.0356) and recently a high of 0.9715 (1.0293) against the struggling Australian Dollar (AUD). A lack of economic data in the pair has seen movement constrained to recent levels while it waits for further economic guidance. The bullish channel is still holding with further upside potential next week with a raft of data publishing. NZ Westpac consumer sentiment Tuesday should offer movement in the cross together with the RBA Minutes and later in the week Aussie employment data. Don’t plan your parity party just yet.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9672 AUDNZD 1.0332
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9652- 0.9715 AUDNZD 1.0293-1.0360
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to improve on the Australian Dollar (AUD) picking up 54 points last week to 0.9660 (1.0350) where it currently trades Tuesday lunch. Last week’s poor Aussie data continues to weigh on the currency in a week with no economic data printing. Financial markets are locked in a “risk on” mood as hopes of a Brexit deal improve heading into tonight’s parliamentary vote. The kiwi benefiting as investors start thinking about parity parties all over again. We can’t see the cross going below 0.9600 (1.0420) this week.
Current Level: 0.9672 (1.0335)
Resistance: 0.9680 (1.0400)
Support: 0.9615 (1.0330)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9582-0.9679 (1.0332-1.0436)
The Australian Dollar (AUD) surprisingly held onto late 0.95’s (1.0400) all week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) but has drifted through 0.9620 (1.0395) levels over the past 48 hours on disappointing Aussie data. The RBA left rates unchanged at 1.50% as Lowe suggested tough times ahead but he expected wage growth to pick up as well as unemployment to drop from 5.00% to 4.75%. Trade Balance printed at 4.55B from 2.85B expected surprising markets and stemming the downward spiral of the AUD. Price from the current level of 0.9630 (1.0380) looks to kick higher on fundamental AUD weakness over the next few weeks. Data in the pair is limited over the following 10 days or so suggesting price could dawdle around current levels.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9628 AUDNZD 1.0379
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9582- 0.9654 AUDNZD 1.0358- 1.0436
The Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair opened the week around 0.9610 (1.0410) with the Aussie Building approvals and Business operating profits coming in poor taking price to 0.9620 (1.0395) Tuesday. The RBA will announce their Cash rate today at 4.30 NZT widely expected to stay at 1.50% with prospects governor Lowe could be dovish if recent data is to go off. For months now we have been talking down the pair back to 0.9000 but with things starting to look shabby in the Australian economy we think price could go back above 0.9700 (1.0310) happily if further weakness is seen in data results. It’s a slow week for the kiwi with nothing on the NZ calendar so past today’s RBA we have Australian quarterly GDP and Retail Sales to digest.
Current Level: 0.9616 (1.0390)
Resistance: 0.9635 (1.0450)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9560-0.9634 (1.038-1.046)
The New Zealand Dollar, Australian Dollar (NZD/AUD) cross has operated within a tight range this week between 0.9560 and 0.9625. NZ Retail Sales took the pair to a high Monday but since then the kiwi has been weaker after data printed poor. NZ Trade Balance reported a deficit of 914 Million which turns out to be the largest deficit for a January month on record deteriorating the kiwi somewhat before ANZ Business confidence also showed a pessimistic view of business growth over the next year further pressuring the NZD. Australian Capital expenditure gave our Australian friends something to cheer about when data surprised to the upside at 2.0% based on expectations of 0.8% boosted the Aussie and ultimately GDP which will be very welcomed. US/China trade discussion will continue to affect direction.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9597 AUDNZD 1.0408
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9560- 0.9626 AUDNZD 1.0388- 1.0460
Australian employment data surprised to the upside Thursday boosting the currency against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.9530 (1.0490) from 0.9590 (1.0430) before Westpac announced they were changing their view suggesting double rate cuts from the RBA this year in August and November. The news bought the Aussie back down to earth closing the week around 0.9606 (1.0410) against the NZD. NZ Retail Sales surprised markets Monday morning boosting the kiwi back over 0.9610 resistance to 0.9635 (1.0380). ANZ Business confidence releases Thursday before Australian Capital quarterly expenditure. We expect price to stay around 0.9600 for the week with the kiwi leading the charge.
Current Level: 0.9599 (1.0411)
Resistance: 0.9645 (1.0550)
Support: 0.9480 (1.0370)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9535-0.9626 (1.0389-1.0489)
Surprisingly after an action packed last few trading sessions the Australian Dollar (AUD) has been resilient against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) trading at 0.9615 (1.0400), but for how long? The Aussie has been by far the weakest currency over the last two days after a slew of bad news depreciated it across the board. Escalating tensions with China have seen a Chinese ban all Australian coal for 2019, while other countries imports are unaffected. As Australia’s biggest export earner and China’s largest coal source this is dire news and has the capacity to really hamper the economy. The currency pair could easily be trading above 0.9800 soon, this is not far away now, with a real possibility we could be having a parity party towards the end of the year. RBA governor Lowe speaks today, will he talk the economy down again.? Aussie sellers should look to sell on dips below 0.9600.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9583 AUDNZD 1.0423
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9533- 0.9633 AUDNZD 1.0380- 1.0489
No such luck for sellers of Australian Dollars (AUD) with price Friday breaking past resistance of 0.9600 to a high of 0.9645 versus the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). RBNZ comments from Adrian Orr made sure the NZD tracked higher when his remarks were less dovish than markers were expecting. The chances of a drop in the cash rate is now 50/50 through to the end of 2020. No data this week on the kiwi docket will see the kiwi driven by Aussie data in particularly employment figures Thursday. RBA governor Lowe speaks Friday, if anything is to go off his previous talks he will talk the Aussie down.
Current Level: 0.9611 (1.0397)
Resistance: 0.9645 (1.0550)
Support: 0.9478 (1.0368)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9483-0.9644 (1.0369-1.0545)
No such luck for punters like us who expected a dovish statement from Adrian Orr Wednesday. Price early in the week consolidated around 0.9520 (1.0500) but with a surprisingly almost positive slant on the NZ economy from Adrian Orr the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) rallied hard on the news. Markets were very short NZD leading up to the release with stops coming into play when price travelled through 0.9560 (1.0460) to register a fresh high of 0.9645 (1.0370) early Friday trading. Next week’s direction will be based on RBA monetary policy minutes and wage price data Wednesday. RBA Lowe speaks Friday and will more than likely continue talking down the Aussie economy- data doesn’t lie.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9614 AUDNZD 1.0396
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9484- 0.9645 AUDNZD 1.0368- 1.0543
After bouncing off 0.9615 (1.0400) last week the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair is back to 0.9505 (1.0520), price has pivoted around this area over the last couple of days as the market waits for the RBNZ Cash Rate announcement Wednesday. Expected to remain at 1.75% we could see downside movement in the Kiwi based on a dovish view. We are expecting price to break under support of 0.9500 (1.0530) as the rollercoaster continues. A positive outcome/solution in the trade talks this week in Beijing will support the Aussie.
Current Level: 0.9529 (1.0485)
Resistance: 0.9565 (1.0540)
Support: 0.9488 (1.0455)
Last Week’s Range: 0.9494-0.9616 (1.0399-1.0533)
It was good to see some significant movement develop over the week in the Australian Dollar (AUD) , New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross after poor data from both sides started a battle in the Tasman. Tuesdays slightly dovish RBA and governor Lowe’s extraordinary pessimistic remarks that followed Wednesday, when he said the Central Bank was far too optimistic sent price from 0.9520 levels to 0.9615. NZ employment numbers failed to impress, posting a 4.3% unemployment rate along with a poor wage growth reading allowed the Aussie to regain earlier losses and trade back to 0.9510 on NZD weakness. Next week we have the RBNZ cash rate announcement.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9526 AUDNZD 1.0493
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9492- 0.9616 AUDNZD 1.0399- 1.05