AUD to USD – US Dollar to Australian Dollar
When converting AUD to USD, or United States dollars to Australian dollars (USD to AUD), by exchanging via Direct FX, you will save a significant amount of money. Our wholesale currency exchange rates for money transfers are significantly more competitive than bank foreign exchange rates. Being Australasian based, we specialise in knowing what drives AUD/USD currency conversion rates.
AUD to USD Overview: The Australian dollar has become the barometer for global growth since the year 2000. Its appreciation against the US dollar is closely linked to commodities market conditions as the emerging markets in Asia develop. Central Bank diversification out of USD now means there is less ongoing support for the USD, as the world’s financial power slowly transfers from the United States.
|Historical Ranges:||1 year||5 years||10 years|
|AUD/USD||.6671 – .7393||.66671 – .8316||.6671 – 1.1078|
Current Official Cash Rates:
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): 0.25% US Federal Reserve (FED): 0 – 0.25%
We provide insight into the Australian Dollar and United States Dollar (AUD/USD) currency pair by reporting trends, market news and providing relative currency charts
After coming off 0.7290, the long term low from the previous week, the Australian Dollar (AUD) has made up further ground clocking 0.7415 early Friday as it recovered from 0.7315. The Federal Reserve were dovish midweek creating a sell off in the greenback after chairman Powell confirmed they would not be moving on their current 120B bond buying program. Ballooning coronavirus cases and an economy struggling to reach full employment undermined topside moves in the USD. The Fed will keep their soft policy until well into 2022-2023 which should offer the AUD relief over the coming months. Breaks above 0.7500 would confirm a fresh shift for the AUD.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7389
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7316- 0.7412
After the Australian Dollar traded to a November 2020 low of 0.7290 against the US Dollar (USD) last week before coming rumbling back to close the week at 0.7370. Monday’s action saw the cross extend declines to 0.7330 as risk waned but as equity indices posted gains investors purchased the Aussie again to 0.7380. A bullish earnings season and generally better than expected data have been offset by concerns of the Delta coronavirus variant affecting risk sentiment, however the AUD looks to be on the move and could be propelled north this week. This week’s much talked about Federal Reserve Monetary Policy and Rate release publishes before quarterly GDP. Expectations are for Powell to go down the line and speak of a transitory economic environment in line with being a long way off full employment. Confirmation of a bull trend won’t be signalled until we see a further rise in the cross past 0.7450.
Current Level: 0.7378
Last Weeks Range: 0.7290-0.7396
The Australian dollar (AUD) remained under pressure against the United States dollar (USD) for much of this week, weighed on by negative risk sentiment and the increasingly negative economic impact of the current covid lock downs. This saw the pair trade to a fresh yearly low of 0.7290 midweek, before improving risk sentiment helped to encourage a bounce back toward 0.7385, where it currently trades. It’s way too early to suggest the downside pressure have abated however and it wouldn’t take much to see the AUD/USD back down testing levels sub 0.7300 again if risk sentiment sours. Next weeks Australian inflation data, due Wednesday, will draw focus and while the RBA currently maintain a very dovish stance, that can could change quickly if inflation starts climbing and the various states get the current covid outbreak under control. Support is seen at 0.7290 while topside resistance comes in at 0.7460.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7385
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7290 – 0.7415
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has sustained further declines this week against the US Dollar (USD) dropping now 5 from the last 6 weeks to 0.7340 and posting a fresh yearly low. It’s basically all pear shaped down under with the RBA dragging the chain on tightening policy which is holding the currency back and virus concerns in NSW predicted to worsen as renewed restrictions come into play. Today’s RBA minutes is our focus later today with the inside word suggesting the central bank may backtrack on earlier expectations to start easing their emergency stimulus. We believe the RBA will maintain its cash rate well into 2023. Things can change quickly in these coronavirus times but until the RBA turns hawkish the AUD could continue to devalue over the remaining 2021 year.
Current Level: 0.7333
Last Weeks Range: 0.7322-0.7502
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has suffered its third straight week of losses in a row against the US Dollar (USD) sliding to 0.7240 areas as it struggles to stay above massive long-term support at 0.7400 the yearly low. Australian Jobless numbers were solid when the Australian Unemployment Rate clicked lower to 4.9% in June from 5.1% in May confirming better than predicted strength in the overall economy. It wasn’t so AUD supportive however, the pair drifting lower as risk averse markets took over. This is the lowest jobless rate since 2010 and the Aussie is still trading around the yearly lows – so so strange. The result confirms the recent outlook by the RBA to start withdrawing its bond buying program from September. US Retail Sales is yet to print and publishers in the morning, the prior two months were poor so we expect better numbers for June and a return of some risk on sentiment and the Aussie to retest 0.7500 levels.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7419
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7409- 0.7501
After making ground up earlier in the week back to 0.7600 levels the Australian Dollar (AUD) slipped back to 0.7420 in overnight Thursday trading against the US Dollar (USD). A new yearly low was posted as we go back to December 2020 levels to see similar prices. The came out hawkish leaving their benchmark Cash Rate at 0.10% Tuesday but confirmed they would start tapering their Covid relief program from September to 4B from the current 5B amount. Its forecast is to drop the bond buying program again in November. The central bank forecast is to start hiking the cash rate in 2024 instead of 2025 as previously planned. Equity markets booked a down day as well as the US Dollar index- strangely the big dollar was down as well with the Yen coming out on top as the safe haven buy of choice. US Unemployment claims were not so good publishing at 373k down from the 345k we were predicting assisting to weaken the mood. We don’t expect much more downside in the AUD, with price overextended to the downside.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7423
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7415- 0.7598
The Australian Dollar (AUD) sank to a yearly low of 0.7440 late last week against the US Dollar (USD) falling below the recent low of 0.7480 as the greenback was heavily sold off post NFP releasing. Non-Farm Payroll beat predictions of 725,000 by coming in at 850,000 creating a surge in equity markets and ultimately softening the US Dollar across the board of currencies. US Unemployment ticked higher in June to 5.9% from May’s 5.8% missing the mark at 5.6%. The release led to a heavy sell off in the US Dollar as markets concluded the data wasn’t good enough for the Fed to start tapering their QE relief program any earlier than forecasted. Australian Retail Sales helped to kick start a rally yesterday when figures showed a 0.4% boost to sales in May after 0.1% was expected. Late morning today the Aussie got another shot of confidence pushing higher to 0.7550 off the back off a buoyant NZD. Today’s RBA at 4.30 NZT is the focus with the central bank possibly speaking about tapering their QE and hiking rates sooner than forecast. Certainly if they are hawkish we should see further upside in the cross.
Current Level: 0.7541
Last Weeks Range: 0.7448-0.7570
The Australian Dollar’s (AUD) run up to 0.7620 Friday against the US Dollar (USD) was met with resistance Monday as it failed to push on. Markets were generally “risk off” as punters await Fed talk later in the week and further speak of tapering and how inflation is impacting. With further inflation rises expected this may force the Federal Reserve’s hand earlier than later to act. Non-Farm Payroll releases at the end of the week and should give us more clues as to what the Fed may do to counteract high inflation. The Aussie has bounced off 0.7860 a number of times in the last 3 months- this looks to be a solid long term resistance level and may signal the cross has done its dash topside. Working back into the 0.80’s will be almost wholly centred around the central bank’s appetite to restrict inflationary pressures.
Current Level: 0.7554
Last Weeks Range: 0.7494-0.7616
The Australian Dollar (AUD) rebounded hard off the weekend closing price of 0.7476 to climb back to 0.7585 against the US Dollar (USD) mainly off the back of improved risk sentiment. Risk products and currencies received a boost Wednesday with equity indices closing higher- the third straight day. US Factory Activity rose to a record high in June with manufacturers struggling to keep pace with recent product demands. Also boosting market mood was Biden’s new bipartisan infrastructure deal with senators to provide roughly 600B worth of investments in roads, broadband and electric utilities. US jobs claims for last week reported 411,000 people filed for unemployment coming in close to the 382,000 estimates showing broad strength in the US economy. We predict further upside for the AUD and a retest of the short term resistance level of 0.7600
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7588
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7477- 0.7598
The bear run in the Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) pair continued into Friday post the Fed policy announcement, surprisingly slammed to 0.7470 levels at the close of the week. Oversold was the first thing which came to mind as we predicted a reversal back above 0.7560 as short sellers unwound AUD short positions. This never happened, instead investors continued to buy the big dollar. Monday’s saw a change of mood with equity prices higher and commodity markets also coming off 5-10% losses, the AUD/USD reaping much earned gains back to 0.7535. Let’s remember how Australian unemployment came in at 5.1% instead of the 5.5% markets were expecting and how this data was initially ignored. This week’s final US GDP for the first quarter prints Friday with expectations of around 6.4% over the fourth quarter’s 4.3%. Resistance is now at 0.7570 on the chart, we think the cross will retest this zone over the week as the AUD improves.
Last Weeks Range: 0.7476-0.7724
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has underperformed against the US Dollar (USD) over the week, smashing past the ten-week support level at 0.7650 on its way to register 0.7540 into Friday trading. This represents the lowest daily close since December 2020. US Producer Price Index increased by 0.8% in May, the largest rise since November 2010 kick starting massive interest in the greenback. With faster than expected recent CPI Inflation figures of 5.0% y/y, Federal Reserve officials have indicated they will start to taper their QE program, with conversations to begin in the July meeting of how this will be done. With prospects of US interest rates being hiked much earlier in 2023 over 2024 this improved the USD. Aussie employment numbers published extremely well with 115,000 people being added to the workforce in May as the Unemployment Rate dived to 5.1% from 5.5% offering small relief to the AUD. It wasn’t enough however with NY session traders extending the decline into Friday. Support for the Aussie now sits at the 0.7400 level, but position consolidation should see a small recovery in the AUD prior to the weekly close.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7559
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7539- 0.7725
The Australian Dollar (AUD) was sold sharply late Friday against the US Dollar (USD) to 0.7685 following the US CPI read. US CPI between June 2020 to May 2021 published at 4.99%, up from the April 2021 number of 4.2% y/y. This is a monster result, the highest on record since 2008. This puts the Fed under enormous pressure to tighten policy and act. Of note the difference between the US 10y yield price at 1.5% and the current CPI of 5.0% is a huge 3.5%- the highest it’s been since 1980. We suspect the Fed won’t change their stance whether this is labelled transitory or not. We will find out Thursday morning when the Fed meets to discuss such matters. Aussie employment is Thursday with no expectations of a change from the current 5.5% unemployment rate. We think the cross will bounce around within the current range between 0.7680 and 0.7800 this week.
Current Level: 0.7698
Last Weeks Range: 0.76880-0.7768
The Australian Dollar (AUD) fell through the eight week range Friday of 0.7690 to reach 0.7650 areas against the US Dollar (USD), only to climb back and regain losses into the close to 0.7730 levels. Strong Aussie export data boosted prices to 0.7760 levels Monday also up were ANZ Job advertisements for May up 7.9%. With equities and commodity prices struggling Tuesday prices in the pair fell back to 0.7730, of note Westpac Consumer Sentiment was also down in June to 107.2 from May’s 113.1. US May CPI prints Friday along with jobs numbers, markets expect CPI to be around 1.0% up from April’s 0.8%. We may see a little selling in the cross towards the weekend.
Current Level: 0.7743
Last Weeks Range: 0.7646-0.7764
The Australian Dollar (AUD) dropped below the 0.7700 key eight week support level against the US Dollar (USD), stopping out around 0.7645 levels into Friday trading. Big dollar strength post the ADP bumper release at 978,000 ahead of 645,000 predictions had investors selling AUD in a hurry. Earlier, Tuesday’s RBA meet- a non event as predicted with the board maintaining its current policy settings. The RBA has said over and over, they wont start increasing the cash rate until inflation is sustainably within the 2-3% target range. Currently it’s 1.1%. Dragging the chain on tapering talk in comparison to other central bank view’s including the Fed will no doubt continue to weigh on the AUD for a while. Tonight’s Non Farm Payroll monthly release is expected to print up on predictions giving the AUD and general risk, a leg up.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7661
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7645- 0.7717
The Australian Dollar slipped last Friday to 0.7680 against the US Dollar (USD) as investors and traders made last minute- May position adjustments. As US Non-Farm Payroll released this took prices back to 0.7700 on improved risk, 406,000 people filed for unemployment over the previous week compared to 427,000 predicted showing a 5 week trend lower, the best release since March 2020 as the jobs market continues to improve and edge closer to pre-covid levels. Today’s RBA statement and rate announcement is in focus at 4.30 NZT, with markets watching for any speech on shifting away from their dovish QE stance and a move to possibly start tapering. If this eventuates the AUD/USD will almost certainly track higher.
Current Level: 0.7763
Last Weeks Range: 0.7677-0.7796
The Australian Dollar (AUD) followed the kiwi lead higher Wednesday, rising off the back of the RBNZ announcement to 0.7795 against the US Dollar from around 0.7750 levels. US employment claims overnight published better than markets were predicting at 406k raising risk sentiment, equity markets also posting gains. US second estimate 1st quarter GDP annualised rose by 6.4% beating out 4th quarter 2020 figures of 4.1% highlighting the US economy is slowly recovering to pre-covid levels. Looking ahead we have the RBA rate release and statement next week followed by first quarter GDP with expectations the print could be a little light based on disruptions to trade and supply chains. US NFP is later in the week and offers up the usual currency volatility. For now, the cross looks happy trading in a sideways pattern pivoting around 0.7750 areas.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7277
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7705- 0.7795
US date impressed late Friday with Unemployment claims and Manufacturing coming in better than predicted. The number of people filing for unemployment two weeks back declined to 444k from 453k predicted and manufacturing is on the rise with an unprecedented rise in business activity during May. The Australian Dollar (AUD) fell to 0.7720 around the weekly close on the news. Risk conditions perked up the cross Monday with equity markets recovering, the pair trading back around 0.7760 levels Tuesday. However, we still see “range bound” action dominating movement this week on the lack of economic data publishing. With the 50-day moving average offering support on dips around 0.7720 we should see upside “risk” based movement through the week unfold.
Current Level: 0.7755
Last Weeks Range: 0.7710-0.7812
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to track lower against the US Dollar (USD) over the last couple of days, coming off 0.7820 falling down to 0.7705 in early Thursday trading. The fallout from last week’s pumping US inflation read still has markets spooked. This morning’s Fed Minutes improved the greenback with a number of fed members saying- should the economic recovery continue to gain momentum they could begin to discuss tightening its accommodative QE policy program. Talks around the beginning of a proper taper supported the USD. Meanwhile the Aussie is well supported on dips to 0.7700 with upside bias expected. Looking ahead, we have Australian employment data today with no change predicted to the unemployment rate of 5.6%. Aussie Retail Sales also prints Friday of note.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7733
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7710- 0.7812
The Australian Dollar ended the week down versus the US Dollar (USD) around 80 points or nearly a cent, after recovering off Thursday’s low of 0.7688 to close at 0.7780. US Data wasn’t ideal as investors weakened the greenback after Retail Sales came in light at 0.0% (1.0% expected) and Industrial Production for April was 0.7% instead of the 0.9% forecast. UoM Consumer Confidence Index published light at 82.8 based on a 90.2 read, more than likely a by-product of post Friday’s US Inflation print which surprised markets. Australian employment data along with their Unemployment Rate is our data focus this week, no change is predicted but we think this will tick lower and take the Aussie to fresh higher levels. On the chart resistance is close by, around the 0.7800 zone, a break through here and its thin air through to 0.7960 levels provided risk sentiment holds.
Current Level: 0.7792
Last Weeks Range: 0.7689-0.7856
The Australian Dollar (AUD) made small gains early in the week to 0.7890 against the US Dollar (USD) before coming off large. US CPI for April printed at 0.8% which shocked many after expectations were of a 0.2% print. Weirdly driven by a massive jump in prices for used cars and covid style travel services. The Federal Reserve undermined the result saying it was nothing to be concerned about only temporary, not so sure. Markets turned risk off post release taking the cross lower to 0.7690. Meanwhile overnight US jobs figures for last week showed a decrease of new unemployment of 473k down on 498k in March and lower than the 487k predicted. This bought back a sense of relief with the AUD recovering on better risk and higher indices after three days of declines to 0.7720. Markets turn to Australian jobs data next week, in the meantime we see solid support on the chart around 0.7700 levels.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7729
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7687- 0.7890
Positive market risk conditions favored the Australian Dollar off the weekly open as it extended Friday’s gains on the US Dollar reaching 0.7890. Australian Retail Sales was slightly down for March m/m at 1.3% (1.4% expected) but never really factored into price moves with investors selling the greenback. US Non-Farm Payroll was a disappointing print with only 266,000 new faces entering the workforce based on 990,000 expected. The official Unemployment Rate ticked higher to 6.1% from March’s 6.0%, much higher than the 5.8% expected by markets. This in turn will give the Fed cause to retain their current monetary policy for a long period of time. This should give risk markets breathing space to rally over the short to medium term. Later in the week US Retail Sales prints for April with around 1.0% predicted m/m. On the chart we expect the Aussie to regain the edge over the remaining week assisted by further risk buying.
Current Level: 0.7830
Last Weeks Range: 0.7675-0.7890
The Australian Dollar (AUD) turned off the four week low of 0.7675 midweek against the US Dollar (USD) reversing 8 days of losses to post 0.7780 into Friday sessions. The RBA left their cash rate of 0.10% as predicted Tuesday in a somewhat drab commentary which followed. Talk of the usual QE to increase if required and a healthy economic recovery was the tone. Risk markets improved with commodities and equity indices posting gains and the USD weakening off on soft data. ADP Non Farm Employment came in light at 742k after 872k was anticipated with Manufacturing down as well. Looking ahead we have Non Farm Payroll printing tomorrow with predictions of a print of over 1M people added to the US workforce in April which could strengthen the cross higher into the weekly close.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7780
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7673- 0.7791
The Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) is trading plumb in the middle of a two-week range between 0.7700 and 0.7820 Tuesday around the 0.7760 area. The Aussie improved slightly off the weekly open on better risk sentiment with equities up overnight just off recent all-time highs as markets await this afternoon’s RBA rate and monetary policy announcement. No change to either is widely predicted as the central bank continues with their QE program, but with recent media reports we could see a dovish read at 4.30pm NZT today. Non-Farm Payroll releases later in the week with expectations of a rise in new employed people in April. The recent head and shoulder pattern on the chart is still suggesting a downward bias for the pair, we are not so sure however with recent momentum over the prior 6 weeks trending conditions suggesting further upside in the medium term.
Current Level: 0.7750
Last Weeks Range: 0.7696-0.7817
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its rise to 0.7815 into Monday sessions against the US Dollar (USD) as risk sentiment remained high, the net effect of record levels in US indices and bumper earnings results. Chinese industrial production showed good results with iron ore prices surging to record highs, the by-product of extremely good recent steel demand. Price in the pair drifted lower Wednesday to 0.7750 as markets awaits directional cues in tomorrow’s Federal Reserve Monetary Policy and Rate announcement. Jerome Powell is expected to leave the current QE in place for a while longer, but his tone could be interesting with the economy starting to improve recently. If we go off the “head and shoulder” pattern setup on the daily chart we should see the Aussie drift lower extending the right shoulder lower.
Current Level: 0.7755
Last Weeks Range: 0.7690-0.7814
The Australian Dollar (AUD) tapped out around 0.7815 earlier in the week, unable to push on from recent fresh highs against the US Dollar (USD). Not attributed to any specific economic releases the Aussie fell away purely as risk appetite deteriorated into Friday, overnight Biden announced he was looking to double capital gains tax above 1M to pay for childcare and education. This will raise around 4Trillion in capital by raising tax from 20% to 39.6%. Biden’s plan is yet to be officially passed as law. If it does this will have a massive effect on equity markets and conversely the AUD long term. Technically the “head and shoulder” pattern on the chart is still in play with the next move in the pair perhaps to the downside. We are not so sure!
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7712
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7690- 0.7812
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continued its climb north off the open Monday reaching 0.7780 against the US Dollar (USD) before dropping back to 0.7750. With a combination of strong equity rises of late bringing risk back to the table and last week’s bumper employment data the AUD sure has a head of steam. Resistance sits at 0.7820 the triple high and the right shoulder of the “head and shoulder” pattern. A break above here and the long term 0.7970 level is the target -the January 2018 high. Aussie Retail Sales prints tomorrow before the weekly US employment claims Friday. A release above 1.0% would certainly almost see the AUD bid.
Current Level: 0.7778
Last Weeks Range: 0.7586-0.7783
The Australian Dollar (AUD) pushed last 0.7670 resistance, the 3-week high Thursday against the US Dollar (USD) on its way to top out at 0.7760. US Data came in well, with Retail Sales for March in at 9.8% based on predictions at 5.8% as well as jobless claims for last week at 576k lower than the 703k newly unemployed expected. Australian unemployment stats for March also showed good numbers with 70,700 people entering the workforce higher than the 35,200 predicted boosting the labour force participation rate to 66.3%. This data combined to fuel risk assets to thrust the AUD much higher as markets enjoyed the “feel good”. The cross has consolidated around 0.7740 over the past few hours with 0.7800 looking like solid resistance, the head and shoulder pattern suggesting downside bias could eventuate.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7735
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7584- 0.7760
The Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) cross has been parked in the 0.76’s for over a week now, trading around 0.7620 early in Tuesday sessions. Federal Reserve chairman Powell spoke overnight saying the US economy was at an ‘inflection point” with expectation that hiring and growth will pick up pace over the coming months. He made reference to hasty reopening of parts of the economy especially since the coronavirus has yet to be defeated. An upswing in CPI figures was likely to be temporary and won’t cause the Fed to change its monetary plans- Powell went on to say. Later in the week we have employment releasing in Australia – the unemployment rate is expected to come in lower which could send the AUD higher.
Current Level: 0.7613
Last weeks Range: 0.7588-0.7676
Early trading this week saw the Australian Dollar (AUD) push up to 0.7660 against the US Dollar (USD) before dropping back. The RBA left rates unchanged at 0.10% as expected, saying interest rates won’t be raised until well into 2024. The central bank won’t increase the cash rate unless inflation is sustainably within the 2-3% range. The key will be unemployment moving towards 4.0% and wage growth above 3.0%. However, if the economy builds as economists expect it to we may see an unwinding of the monetary policy support earlier than expected. Of note the US Dollar index is down 100 points to 92.32 this morning from early March levels and is also weighing on the big dollar. US Fed chair speaks Friday adding normal volatility. We think Aussie bias is to the upside for the remainder of the week.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7673
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7598- 0.7659
The Australian Dollar (AUD) crept up to 0.7660 during Tuesday sessions against the US Dollar (USD) as equity markets improved but was sold back to 0.7580 areas Wednesday as the big dollar gained strength and bond yield clicked higher. US consumer confidence popped up likely because of the huge and quick rollout of the coronavirus vaccines across the US. Clearly influential on getting businesses back open which should lead to full employment. Data to come this week with ISM manufacturing, jobless claims and unemployment rate as well as NFP are all expected to release better than predicted which could divert investors away from the safe haven USD and buy AUD. That being said we don’t expect the cross to travel below 0.7560 the yearly low.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7611
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7563- 0.7663
The Australian Dollar (AUD) fell through daily support yesterday at 0.7595 which has held since December 2020 on its way to report a fresh low of 0.7568 into Friday sessions. The US Dollar (USD) has been well supported over the week on safe haven buying. US Fed chairman Powell spoke of a stronger US economy overnight with 6.5% growth medium term revised up and the necessary tools at hand if inflation surges above their 2.0% target. He also mentioned if vaccine rollouts go well this could be the catalyst for backing off the QE program. Markets scoffed at the idea and recorded further gains. US Jobless numbers improved with the number of unemployed decreasing by 97,000 to 684,000 in the week ending March 20th. This is significant as it’s the first time the jobless numbers have fallen below 700k since very early days of the pandemic. US Final GDP (third estimate) for the Fourth quarter printed at 4.3% higher than the 4.1% we were expecting. Further declines in the AUD below 0.7560 could signal real trouble with no significant support until 0.7300, but we don’t expect this to happen over the next few days at least.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7579
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7564- 0.7754
The Australian Dollar (AUD) bounced off 0.7710 early Monday after gapping from 0.7760 on the open. The US Dollar (USD) was smoked as risk markets enjoyed a reversal from Friday’s pessimism with equity markets boosted. Sydney has been hit hard by incredible 100-year flooding with over 18,000 needing to be evacuated. A further 15,000 will need to be evacuated, this could have a short-term impact on the Australian economy and affect GDP. Prospects of staying clear of another recession just got harder. As yet the AUD hasn’t been affected. Of note also we have seen iron ore prices fall marginally from recent highs, something which could be harmful to the Aussie if prices fall further. We have no Aussie data on the calendar this week, only US Manufacturing figures and final GDP which shouldn’t add much volatility. Arguably the AUD/USD pair is still trading in a bull trend, a shift below 0.7640 could indicate a bigger shift to the downside.
Current Level: 0.7727
Last Weeks Range: 0.7699-0.7849
The Australian Dollar (AUD) drifted lower to 0.7700 against the US Dollar (USD) into Thursday sessions. Fantastic Australian employment data printed, sharply raising the Aussie to 0.7850 early Friday. The Unemployment rate dropped to 5.8% from the predicted 6.3% and 6.3% in February. Jobs data also surprised when 88,700 positions were added to the workforce, higher than the 30,000 predicted. A large chunk of these were from full time workers providing 89% compared to -500 for part timers. The USD bounced back from Thursday’s losses rallying after the latest jobless claims as 770,000 Americans filed from unemployment in the week ending 13th March. Despite the unpredictable nature and volatile price shifts of late the cross the AUD holds bullish momentum in the medium/long term.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7761
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7697- 0.7848
Early optimism in the markets waned Monday, the Australian Dollar (AUD) falling back to 0.7700 levels against the US Dollar (USD). Recovering into Tuesday sessions back to 0.7750 the Aussie seems to be holding up well in the face of recent detrimental news. Australian Consumer confidence snapped 3 weeks of gains dropping 0.9% despite the govt rolling out a 1.2B support package. It’s said the report may have linked to new coronavirus cases in NSW and Queensland. The sharp drop in the iron ore price couldn’t sink the AUD either. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve Thursday, Powel will most likely increase bond purchases, keep rates at near zero, which are intended to lower long-term borrowing costs and give hints on where he sees interest rates headed. Aussie employment data also prints Thursday and should reflect a drop in the unemployment rate to 6.3% in February from January’s 6.3%. A retrace of last week’s high at 0.7800 could be tested.
Current Level: 0.7748
Last Weeks Range: 0.7622-0.7800
The Australian Dollar (AUD) turned early in the week off 0.7620 against the US Dollar (USD) recovering all the way to 0.7790 midday Friday. The Aussie was buoyed higher post Scott Morrison’s new 1.2B stimulus package targeted to support the tourism industry amid broad based greenback weakness. US Yield prices ticked higher the 10 year now at 1.538% increasing the pressure on inflation fears and long-term interest rate increases which at this point would be disastrous. The number of people who filed for unemployment in the US to the week ending 6 March was 712,000 coming in below market forecast of 725,000 and down from the previous week’s 754,000, marking the lowest reading since November. Also of note was US CPI for February coming in at 0.1% slightly lower than 0.2% predicted but with inaccurate data, this was possibly largely an estimate from the US dept of statistics. The AUD is targeting last week’s high of 0.7835 and may go on to retest the multi-year high of 0.8005 set two weeks ago if positive headlines continue.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7787
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7620- 0.7794
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to underperform across the main board and against the US Dollar (USD) into Tuesday sessions falling to 0.7635. The main theme of late has been the unmistakable strength of the greenback on event risk stemming from the 1.9T US stimulus bill being passed. Earlie the Aussie recovered from Friday’s low of 0.7615 on the stock rebound. US Non-Farm Payroll came in at 379k based on 197k estimates boosting risk for a while prior to the close. We don’t have a lot of activity this week on the calendar with markets focusing on RBA Low’s comments late today. A daily close lower than 0.7600 the yearly low could be dangerous for further downside movement.
Current Level: 0.7649
Last Weeks Range: 0.7621-0.7836
Early week upside movement in the Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) cross saw price reach 0.7835 underpinned by positive Aussie data. The RBA statement was a fairly subdued event saying they would retain the cash rate at 0.10% most likely until 2024 as the economy recovers well from the pandemic. More importantly, the Australian economy lifted further from its recent recession after posting a 3.1% rise in GDP in the December quarter blowing away early expectations of a 2.2% markets were expecting. Positive sentiment started to waiver Thursday, the AUD taking on water into Friday’s Fed Chairman comments. Powell spoke early today in what was a dovish review saying he sees no urgency to tighten monetary policy, although he failed to signal alarm at the recent rising long-term interest rats. This brought about a surge in long term bond prices with the 10 year shifting from 1.50% to 1.53%. The pair retraced moves to 0.7720 and sits just above 3 week support around 0.7700 levels. US Non Farm Payroll releases early in the morning and should bring the normal currency shifts with it.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7805
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7704- 0.7838
Overnight equity markets regained earlier losses, the Nasdaq up over 3%, taking risk currencies along for the ride. The Australian Dollar (AUD) bounced off the early week 0.7690 against the US Dollar (USD) to post 0.7770 midday Tuesday. A poor read in the Chinese February Manufacturing figures at 50.6 after 51.1 was predicted confirmed a slower pace a month earlier but strangely not impacting the AUD – yet. Instead, the Aussie has been solid on the back of improving risk sentiment. Today’s RBA statement and cash rate announcements are the focus with GDP for fourth quarter to be released tomorrow. We are expecting 2.3%- anything better and we should see the AUD improve. It has a long way to climb however to recoup last week’s falls. Non-Farm Payroll is at week’s end, expect the normal flurry of volatility around the announcement.
Current Level: 0.7770
Last Weeks Range: 0.7693-0.8006
The Australian Dollar (AUD) rose to 0.8005 against the US Dollar (USD) during Thursday trading, the first time since February 2018. However markets were not ready to price the cross in the 80’s just yet with prices pulling back at speed over the following hours to 0.7850 amid a change in sentiment. Equity markets and general risk currencies took hits after US Bond Yields reached fresh highs. Dovish comments from the Fed post rises in the 7year treasury note led to expectations that the Federal Reserve may bring forward rate hikes. Next week we have the RBA rate statement and policy announcement followed by fourth quarter GDP. The Aussie is still trading within a bullish trend channel, a drop through 0.7800 could signal a bigger move lower.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7841
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7838- 0.8005
The buoyant Australian Dollar (AUD) cleared the previous 7 week high against the US Dollar (USD) Monday of 0.7820 to reach a lofty 0.7930 in early Tuesday trading. A period of USD selling and Aussie demand has been the trend helping to push the AUD into new territory. Rating’s agency Fitch maintained the Australian credit rating at AAA Monday saying they expect the country’s GDP to grow to 3.8% in 2021 and 2.7% in 2022. Generally positive market sentiment along with the rollout of coronavirus vaccines have helped to boost risk mood together with recent rises in iron ore and copper prices as well. The AUD’s next level of interest is 0.8000 and 0.8050 the Dec 2017 level. It’s hard to see any downside trend reversals in the near/medium term taking place.
Current Level: 0.7912
Last Weeks Range: 0.7724-.7928
Bit of a bumpy journey for the Australian dollar (AUD) over the last few days, as unable to hold the 0.7770 level against the Greenback saw a retreat to 0.7724 level on Thursday undermined by downbeat US equity indices. Yesterday saw mixed data from the monthly Australian employment report that showed there were an added 29.1K new jobs in January vs 50K expected, although the unemployment rate contracted from 6.6% to 6.4%. Later this morning Aussie will release the preliminary estimates of the Commonwealth Bank PMIs. This is forecasted to show services output improving from 55.6 to 55.8 while manufacturing activity is expected to tick higher from 57.2 to 57.3. The country will also publish the preliminary estimate of January Retail Sales, seen up 2%. Currently the AUD/USD has recovered a little on a softer US unit to trade around 0.7770, but now looks to be in a consolidation phase between 0.7700-0.7800 a break back over 0.7820 would need to be sustained to threaten higher levels at 0.7850 and beyond.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7770
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7718 – 0.7805
Solid start to the week by the Australian dollar as it builds on gains made last week as the market awaits the RBA February minutes later this afternoon. Of interest will be additional detail around the extension of the QE program amidst the ongoing pain for Australia’s tourism and education exports. The AUD pushed higher yesterday given low volumes due to the Presidents Day holiday in America and continued strength in Iron ore prices, with a retest of the multi-year 0.7820 high last seen in January, however it is not all plain sailing with ongoing tensions with China remaining which will hurt both investment and exports. On balance the underlying economy remains robust and we still favour Australian dollar upside on this cross with a break of 0.7820 opening the way to 0.7850 then 0.7885 with a longer-term target of around 0.8130 last seen in January 2018…failure to hold the 0.7800 mark would see an initial retreat to the 0.7770 level.
Current Level: 0.7801
Last Weeks Range: 0.7652-0.7803
The Australian dollar has started the week on a tear with a solid move over the 0.7700 level against the USD. The AUD/USD surged higher yesterday to a high of 0.7735 but was unable to extend this advance as weakness in the equity markets offset the weaker USD. However, this morning the AUD remains well bid having made a high overnight at 0.7740 and retains the potential to push higher towards resistance at 0.7765. Australian data has been mixed. January NAB’s Business Confidence improved to 10 from 5, ahead of expectations. NAB’s Business Conditions in the same period, however, contracted to 14 to 7. Later today February Westpac Consumer Confidence data will be released forecast at -3% from -4.5% in the previous month. Also, this afternoon China’s January PPI & CPI data will be released. We continue to favour AUD upside in this pair and look for a push over 0.7750 in the next day or so providing no surprises in China data.
Current Level: 0.7734
Last Weeks Range: 0.7583-0.7743
The Australian Dollar (AUD) made small gains Monday against the US Dollar (USD) to 0.7660 but failed to push on, falling back into Wednesday after a dovish RBA Tuesday release. The Reserve Bank of Australia as expected left their benchmark rate unchanged at 0.10% but surprised market players by increasing their QE program by AUD 100B. The release gradually deteriorated the AUD to 0.7560 early today. Weirdly the RBA are strangely optimistic in its economic projection for the coming months naming the rollout of vaccines for coronavirus as a strong factor. The RBA governor Lowe speaks Friday prior to the US Non-Farm Payroll release and unemployment rate announcement, which is expected to remain solid at 6.7%. Further falls through 0.7520 could mark a momentum turnaround to the downside in the cross.
Current Level: 0.7603
Last Weeks Range: 0.7564-0.7763
A downbeat Fed Thursday sent risk markets and the Australian Dollar (AUD) travelling backwards against the US Dollar (USD) to 0.7590 levels with news the market wasn’t looking for. The Fed still seems to be very worried about the pandemic recovery and the outlook on the economy in 2021 which will clearly take longer to get back to normal than first thought. Friday trading took on another look with advance GDP coming in benign but ok at 4.0% and US jobless numbers fell to a 3-week low bringing back risk conditions and a rise in equity markets and the Aussie. Prices in the pair were back to just under the 0.7700 at the time of writing. Next week we have a slew of data printing Tuesday’s RBA statement and Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll release so movement could be volatile.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7669
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7590- 0.7764
The Australian Dollar ground its way higher to 0.7780 last week against the US Dollar before falling back to close at 0.7715 after risk sentiment deteriorated. The US Unemployment rates dropped to 6.6% from 6.8% helping to push equity markets higher. Joe Biden’s new administration has hit a snag already with efforts to get Biden’s 1.9T stimulus plan through congress. The Democrats may not be able to bring in the plan until March with recent push backs from congress. Also beyond republican opposition are key senate democrats which will need to be convinced. Even though the Fed are happy with economic progress amid the coronavirus pandemic they will most likely re-confirm its commitment to low interest rates and policy. Chairman Powell may take a dovish tone and retract from its aggressive efforts to support the economy including its bond buying program. Solid triple support at 0.7650 should hold this week with topside action to 0.7770 most likely.
Current Level: 0.7713
Last Weeks Range: 0.7683-0.7782
The Australian dollar was buoyed by yesterday’s more upbeat employment data coming off a low against the greenback of 0.7720 to finish the day around the 0.7780 mark. It has held onto most of these gains opening at 0.7770 this morning. Yesterday’s employment produced a better than expected result showing that Australia added 50K new job positions as expected in December, 36.5K of them full-time positions, with the unemployment rate dropping to 6.6% from 6.8%, beating expectations of 6.7% Later today Aussie Preliminary January retail sales figures will be released which are expected to show a 7.1% growth. With the new Biden Administration now installed in the White House, it looks increasingly likely that more stimulus will flow into the US economy to kick-start the recovery, this should keep pressure on the USD with interest rates expected to stay lower for longer while improving Australian data should limit further rate cuts by the RBA. If Aussie data remains supportive this trend will underlie market movements in the medium term into the second half of the year. The AUD/USD looks solid above the 0.7750 level and a move back above the 0.7770 mark would likely see a push to the next resistance level around the 0.7815 mark with risk skewed to the topside. Support at 0.7720 not likely to be threatened.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7762
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7660 – 0.7781
The Australian Dollar (AUD) soured to a post New Year high of 0.7820 against the US Dollar (USD) as equity and commodity markets broke record highs. As risk conditions locked up and markets started to buy back the USD over the past 10 days the pair has been stuck in a range between 0.7630 and 0.7800. After the attack on Capitol Hill early January the US Defense Force will bring in 25,000 troops to oversee tomorrow’s (20th) inauguration of Joe Biden to the 46th President of the United States of America. A tack higher this week in the cross to 0.7700 Tuesday looks like the Aussie could be regaining some momentum heading into Thursday’s employment data release.
Current Level: 0.7697
Last Weeks Range: 0.7659 – 0.7805
Whippy trading has categorized this cross over the last 24/48 hrs with the Australian dollar opening the week lower, dropping from last week’s high against the greenback of 0.7639 to a low yesterday of 0.7462 on a more negative market mood for the Aussie on news of increased Covid cases in Sydney and no change on the China trade spat….the AUD has now bounced back to recover some of those losses and is now trading around the 0.7585 mark….Later today will see the release of November preliminary estimate of retail sales (last at 1.4% higher) with November trade balance tomorrow ….both sets of data will be closely watched.. .Expect trading to remain volatile as thin volume over the next two weeks will exacerbate market moves. Initial ranges are 0.7550 support, 0.7600 resistance ….a move back over 0.7640 would then target 0.7675.
Current level: 0.7084
Last Weeks Range: 0.7505-0.7639
The Aussie dollar ends the week riding high with the AUD/USD pair surging to 0.7639, its highest level in over two years during late Asian trading hours yesterday, following the release of upbeat Australian Employment figures. Data showed that Australia added 90K new job positions in November, better than the 50K expected, while the Unemployment Rate came in at 6.8%, improving from 7%. Encouragingly, most of the new positions were full-time ones, 84.2K The China/Australia trade fracas continues over Australian coal/barley exports, but now the market seems to view this as a story for another day. With little in the way of Aussie data today look for the AUD to consolidate at current levels before testing the AUD/USD 0.7700 level. Initial resistance is at 0.7640 with support at 0.7610.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7616
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7506- 0.7638
The Australian dollar enters the week on a firm footing having held over the 0.7525 level for the last two days with price action breaking through the 0.7550 mark posting a new 2020 high of 0.7577… threatening the 0.7580 resistance level. Later today, the Reserve Bank of Australia will publish the Minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting. The document is not expected to bring surprises after policymakers remained on hold earlier this month. There is also a keen eye on the FOMC meeting on Thursday this week amid growing signs that the US economy is losing momentum. Reports that China has formally banned imports of Australian coal, in the latest sign the dispute between the nations is worsening, at this stage has not impacted on the AUD, however the diplomatic row between China and Australia just keeps getting worse, with no obvious off-ramp to the downward spiral in relations between the two key trading partners. Australia is very close to mounting a case against China’s barley tariffs at the World Trade Organization and is now apparently considering the avenues open to it for coal. Further deterioration in trading relations has the potential to overhang concerted AUD strength but at the moment the “trend is your friend” , look for a break of 0.7580 to target 0.7620 then 0.7660- conversely downside support is now around 0.7510 then 0.7470
Current Level: 0.7531
Last Weeks Range: 0.7371-0.7570
Broad USD weakness on the back of worsening virus numbers and an increase in jobless claims, saw the Australian surge to 0.7538 overnight, the highest level since June 2018.
Over the year the AUD has gained nearly 7% on the greenback as a rebound in China’s economy, a recovery in iron-ore prices along with more encouraging economic recovery has overcome concerns on the China/Australian trade spat. Also helping to underpin AUD strength has been increasing confidence over the Covid vaccine rollout leading to improving global growth. The uptick in economic activity should give the RBA pause before any further significant rate cuts and we view chances of negative rates remote. Upside for the AUD/USD on a break of 0.7540 is 0.7580 then 0.7600. However, given the jump higher in the last 3 days some sort of pullback is likely …0.7500 then 0.7450 are support lines in the sand. A hold around current levels into next week would favour further upside.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7527
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7373 – 0.7539
The Australian Dollar (AUD) surged to a fresh August 2018 high of 0.7450 against the US Dollar (USD) Friday prior to easing back towards the weekly close. US Non-Payroll figures came in poor with just 245,000 people returning to the workforce after 480,000 were expected. Unemployment clicked lower to 6.7% down from October’s 6.8% however with buyers coming back into USD. Price travelled to 0.7370 Monday as trade tensions returned. Looking ahead we focus on US CPI for November with 0.1% predicted. Global headline risks will dictate movement over the remainder of the week with US govt stimulus close to agreeing on a deal and virus vaccines poised for distribution.
Current Level: 0.7422
Last Weeks Range: 0.7342-0.7453
The Australian Dollar looks to finish the week on a stronger note coming from a low of 0.7341 against the Greenback earlier in the week to its current level 100 points higher around the 0.7440 level, not seen since August 2018. The Aussie dollar resurgence is two-fold, better data out of the Australian economy and softer US figures. The US ADP employment data on Wednesday was much weaker than expected showing a rise of 307K significantly lower than last month’s 404K and well below the 440K forecast. Markets are now nervous ahead of tonight’s crucial Non-farm payroll figure expected to show an increase of 469K jobs for November and any further drop in US unemployment now at 6.9% looks unlikely if tonight’s payroll figure disappoints. Aussie trade data for the October month out yesterday, showed a bigger surplus than expected at A$7.5bio, an improvement of A$1.6bio over the previous month and well ahead of market expectations around the A$5.8bln. This added further impetus to AUD strength. There are downside risks to the AUD especially around the ongoing spat with China , but overall we favour the AUD on this cross and look for consolidation at current levels to end the week with a push over initial resistance at 0.7450 targeting 0.7490 into week.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7440
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7340 – 0.7448
The safe haven of the US Dollar (USD) was sought yesterday after equity indices reversed recent toppish moves amid poor US data releases. The Australian Dollar (AUD) retreated south from 0.7400 levels to clock 0.7340 early Tuesday. US manufacturing turned in a poor result at 58.2 compared to 59.4 in November. The index is at its lowest level since August. Home Sales fell unexpectedly -1.1% from 1.1% predicted in October with buyers just a little stretched with affordability no-doubt due to coronavirus causes. Today’s RBA statement and cash rate announcement is our focus but we expect no surprises from current policy. The bull trend holds, with channel support around the 0.7300 zone.
Current Level: 0.7358
Last Weeks Range: 0.7277-0.7406
Poor Australian data Thursday with Private Capital Expenditure coming in light didn’t have much of an effect on the surging currency against the US Dollar (USD) with price reaching 0.7375 Friday. Victoria and the New South Wales border reopened midweek after being closed since July with the border between Queensland and Victoria opening again on December 1st. The number of Americans who filed for unemployment ending last week was 778,000 a little higher than the expected 732,000 marking a 4-week high as the recent downturn in numbers takes a new look with coronavirus cases and businesses struggling. Looking ahead we have RBA on the radar next week. A weekly close above the August 2018 high at 0.7390 and the Aussie is in very thin air.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7360
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7266- 0.7373
Early week demand for the Australian Dollar (AUD) with price reaching a fresh high of 0.7340 against the US Dollar (USD) wasn’t to last bouncing off triple high resistance and dropping sharply. US PMI Manufacturing data reflected a decent bounce in Manufacturing and Services providers, the index at 56.7 in October from Septembers 53.3. This marks the biggest pickup in growth since March 2015. It’s been reported that coronavirus cases have plateaued in the USA over the last 7 days and could continue to slow if Thanksgiving holiday travel doesn’t flare things up. Upside bias in the cross may lead to a retest of the prior weekly close at 0.7375 the December 2018 level. Setbacks are well supported above 0.7000.
Current Level: 0.7301
Last Weeks Range: 0.7255-0.7339
The Australian Dollar (AUD) bounced hard off prior resistance at 0.7340 early week against the US Dollar (USD) falling away to 0.7250 levels Friday. 0.7340 marks the third occasion we have seen price reverse lower since early September unable to break this area. Unemployment surprised coming in at 7.0% vs 7.1% expected slightly higher than September’s 6.9% with the participation rate increasing from 64.9% to 65.8%. Oddly price travelled lower, the favourable data has the gravity to potentially change the RBA outlook positively- markets didn’t see it this way. US jobs data printed another poor result for last week with 742,000 people compared to 707,000 expected filing for unemployment. As markets become increasingly nervous around coronavirus implications to the US economy we may see shifts to the downside develop.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7281
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7255- 0.7338
The Australian Dollar (AUD) quickly returned to last week’s highs against the US Dollar (USD) at 0.7320 after dipping to 0.7230 mid last week. Risk markets are again boosting sentiment as headline news of coronavirus vaccines offers optimism. Moderna made headlines again after saying their phase 3 vaccine trials on 30,000 Americans has proven to be 95% effective. They will now look to get special approval by the FDA to roll out the product across the planet. If all stars align, it will be well into late 2021 before it hits the public however. Looking ahead, our focus is with Aussie Unemployment Thursday. Predictions are for a rise to 7.1% from September’s 6.9% which could put stress on the Aussie. On the downside 0.7230 should hold this week.
Current Level: 0.7319
Last Weeks Range: 0.7221-0.7326
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has done well to hold only most of last week’s gains against the US Dollar (USD) falling back respectfully late week to 0.7230 levels after reaching 0.7340 Monday. Risk deteriorated as earlier optimism towards coronavirus vaccines waned, buyers returned to the safer USD. US unemployment claims helped, as fewer people (709,000) filed for unemployment for the week ending 8 November based on predictions of 730,000. US coronavirus cases are terrible with over 140,000 per day the new normal. Fauci the American immunologist falsely said- the pandemic won’t be around much longer as Chicago inch closer to a massive lockdown. Wednesday’s death toll exploded past 2,000 after weeks of rising infections. Next week’s Aussie unemployment numbers publish for October with expectations of a drop below the current 6.9%. The long-term resistance at 0.7375 should hold for a while longer – the high of December 2018.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7239
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7223- 0.7338
The Australian Dollar (AUD) had the better of the US Dollar (USD) last week to the tune of 260 points or 2.6 cents to 0.7260. The Aussie extended its run to 0.7370 overnight against the greenback on vaccine headline news, but struggled to hold onto gains falling back strangely to 0.7260 levels into Tuesday. The Aussie is the only currency to reverse overnight prices against the big dollar, underperforming. We had high hopes for a close above 0.7380 this week, representing the first time the Aussie has closed on the daily chart above this level since August 2018 but we will need to wait longer. Investors until now at least have looked on a Biden Victory quite positively as President Trump’s ongoing voting legal claims of inconsistencies could drag on for weeks. Fed chair Powell speaks at the end of the week.
Current Level: 0.7278
Last Weeks Range: 0.7028-0.7339
The Aussie dollar (AUD) has had a good week against the USD tracking from a low on Monday around the 0.6991 area back over the pivotal 0.7000 level to its current 0.7287 mark. This was on the back of an as expected RBA statement (albeit the Governor left the door open for more (QE) which saw the predicted 0.10% rate cut and continued uncertainty over the US election result. With the risk-on conditions favouring the AUD despite the indications that point to a Biden presidency absent the ‘blue wave’ that markets had been expecting. Later today the RBA will release its Monetary Policy Statement which will contain updated growth forecasts. Tonight will see the Non-farm payroll data out from the US, this is expected to show that the economy added 600K positions, while the unemployment rate is foreseen declining from 7.9% to 7.7%. The ADP job survey released on Wednesday may be a precursor to lower figures, as it showed a job increase of only 365K against an expected 650K. Also undermining the USD are continuing record US Covid cases, with over 100K new cases seen yesterday. We favour the bullish AUD trend to remain, with immediate AUD/USD support now at 0.7240 level, resistance at 0.7300. Expect trading to hold this range into the weekend but a break over 0.7300 next week could see a run to the year’s highs at 0.7413 made early September.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7258
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6991- 0.7287
The Australian Dollar (AUD) dropped to the 0.7000 pivotal level early week against the US Dollar (USD) but didn’t stick around long recovering losses to 0.7055 into Tuesday trading. The week promises to offer more than normal volatility with a heap of economic data publishing and event risk. The US Election results will start flowing in late Wednesday with proper numbers probably not known until Friday. The RBA is later today- Cash rate and policy statement predicted to be cut to 0.10% form 0.25% with further bond buying on the agenda to assist with rising employment and low inflation. US Non-Farm Payroll is Friday with a weak number forecast for October due to coronavirus economic effects.
Last Weeks Range: 0.6992-0.7157
The Australian Dollar has underperformed this week after a positive start to the week. The Aussie couldn’t push past the 0.7150 level dropping away sharply Wednesday to under 0.7100 with risk sentiment deteriorating. The US economy expanded at an annualised rate of 33.0% for the third quarter, improving on market expectations of 31.0%. This marks the largest y/y expansion of growth on record driven hard by a strong pick up in personal spending and jobs data. Initial jobs claims clocked 751,000 for the week ending 24th October beating out estimates of 775,000, the lowest weekly jobs data read in this coronavirus era. The US reported 81,000 new coronavirus infections on Wednesday and it’s not clear if the US will be implementing fresh restrictions as they head into the US Election on the 8th of November. Next week we have a double hit of central bank activity with the Bank of Australia and the Federal Reserve both releasing Cash Rates and Policy Statements. Currently the pair sits close to the bottom of the recent daily support line at 0.7010, a close through this level could spell further declines in the AUD as prices head towards July lows.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7035
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7001- 0.7156
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been bobbing around the 0.7120 zone this week against the US Dollar (USD) as the pair waits for currency driver cues. Late last week the Aussie climbed to 0.7160 as risk sentiment improved but was knocked back sharply into the close on improved US jobs numbers. US New home sales surprised on the downside when figures showed a decline in September after 4 straight months of increases. Overall though the US like our own (NZ) is underpinned by historically low lending rates, even though the coronavirus pandemic drags on. Advanced US third quarter GDP releases Friday and is expected to be 32.0% annualised after a contraction of 5.0% in the first quarter and a decline of 31.7% in the second quarter. We may see a push higher in the AUD if the number is better. The AUD/USD cross still needs to break out of the recent ranges between 0.7020 and 0.7240 to start a fresh trend.
Current Level: 0.7129
Last Weeks Range: 0.71021-0.7157
The Australian Dollar (AUD) performance this week across the board has been mixed, but it has held its own very well against the US Dollar (USD) above key 0.7015 support. Risk mood improved Thursday after progress was reported in the US fiscal stimulus negotiations, the cross climbing to a healthy 0.7140 into Friday. The RBA reiterated that more easing is likely with the central bank saying they want to see inflation in the 2-3% range before raising rates again. Risks for the Aussie are still tilted to the downside with third quarter CPI to publish next Wednesday. With price moving above the 100-day moving average this morning however we could see a push higher into the close.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7110
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7021- 0.7137
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is starting to look heavy against the US Dollar (USD) and across other crosses as we head deep into the week. On the grid around 0.7230 the pair has fallen away hard to 0.7050 currently. A breach of 0.7000 is the next key level as we watch it edging lower around midday. I’ll say that again- investors are paying strong attention to the massive physiological level at 0.7000 – the Aussie looking like it’s going to need something extremely special to avoid the abyss that awaits below this level. Of note the Aussie has just broken below the daily 100 day moving average. We have the usual US employment data to come on the calendar and the RBA speaking later today- however the notable focus is on the US Fiscal stimulus development headlines.
Current Level: 0.7053
Last Weeks Range: 0.7046-0.7202
As risk sentiment waned the Australian Dollar (AUD) has been unable to push on past the key 0.7250 level reaching 0.7235 against the US Dollar (USD) midweek before reversing gains. Risk aversion set in after concerns that US govt officials may fail to agree on a US fiscal stimulus plan before the US presidential elections. Aussie jobs figures came in poor with unemployment up at 6.9% from 6.8% and Governor Lowe reinforced prospects of an interest rate cut in the near future- perhaps as early as the 3rd November policy meeting. Contributing to the AUD demise was unfavourable US jobs numbers with an additional 53,000 people filing for benefits to the week ending 10 October. The cross may squeeze higher into the close but next week will be the test to see if the AUD can avoid significant support around 0.7020. A close below here and the AUD starts to look very heavy.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7081
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7055- 0.7234
The Australian Dollar (AUD) made solid gains last week reaching 0.7240 levels against the US Dollar (USD) but was unable to carry on the risk led momentum higher. Price into Tuesday has dropped back to 0.7205 as we experience a shift in sentiment. A US fiscal deal looks to be fading again after a lack of meaningful progress has been made between parties. Nancy Pelosi rejected President Trump’s latest proposal and offered her version of the coronavirus relief bill. Trump’s 1.8T package included a US 400 boost in weekly unemployment insurance, a US 1,200 stimulus check for all American adults and US 1,000 for every child. The Democrats look to be sticking with their original 2.2T plan for now. Of note the Chinese are looking to make adjustments to their foreign exchange “forwards” requirements which also weighed on the AUD some. Economic data is restricted to just Aussie jobs numbers and US Retail Sales both at the end of the week. We predict an easing of the cross to 0.7000 labels over the coming days.
Current Level: 0.7207
Last Weeks Range: 0.7096-0.7242
The Australian Dollar (AUD) failed to extend higher post RBA announcement stalling at 0.7200 against the US Dollar (USD) diving instead to fresh lows around 0.7090. The RBA kept their cash rate at 0.25% for now as Lowe reiterated in his statement that the central bank was happy enough with the way the current stimulus was working. As risk sentiment improved into Thursday the AUD recovered to the 0.7170 area moving back above the 100-day moving average. Defence looks to be around the 0.7240 area on the chart if positive risk sentiment continues into the close, we could see a retest here.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7172
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7094- 0.7208
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has appreciated from prior week recent lows from 0.7015 levels looking to get on with it into Tuesday early trading sessions posting 0.7190. A look through 0.7200 could signal a bigger picture bullish tone if positive risk sentiment continues through the week. A combination of President Trump recovering from coronavirus buoyed markets as well as talk of a possible US government fiscal stimulus package coming into play sooner rather than later according to sources. Long term resistance on the chart looks to be the mid-September high of 0.7300 then 0.7400 the early September high extending all the way back to August 2018 levels. Today’s RBA is our immediate focus though with a rate announcement and monetary policy scheduled. Speak of a cut to rates and additional stimulus later in the year is set to spark investor interest.
Current Level: 0.7191
Last Weeks Range: 0.7069-0.7208
An improvement for the AUD this week , trading from 0.7026 to a high of 0.7209. It has now dropped back to the 0.7180 level and we expect current levels to hold heading into tonight’s US Non-farm payroll figure. Australian data remains fairly discouraging, as the AIG Performance of Manufacturing Index contracted to 46.7 in September from 49.3 in the previous month. The final version of the Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI for the same month resulted in 55.4 from 55.5 and later today August Retail sales data will be released, expected at -4.2%. Next week’s RBA statement will be crucial to clearer direction, 0.7140 support level is likely to hold into next week with near term resistance at 0.7210 then 0.7250, expect a 0.7160-0.7200 trading over the day pending any surprises on tonight’s US jobs data ahead of the RBA next Tuesday.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7169
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7018- 0.7208
After last week’s fairly consistent sell-off on the risk adverse tone down to the 0.7005 level the AUD has opened the week on a more positive note as a more risk-on tone emerges with the AUD/USD cross up around the 0.7080 level. However, any sustained AUD strength is likely to be tempered by the bearish RBA interest rate stance as we head into next week’s meeting and ongoing concerns around geo-political problems with China, Australia’s largest trading partner. Short term the AUD looks likely to extend gains against the Greenback with 0.7120 as the first line of resistance, a failure to break and hold above this level would indicate that a test of 0.7000 is then more likely.
Current Level: 0.7079
Last Weeks Range: 0.7005-0.7324
The Australian Dollar (AUD) tanked shortly after the weekly open, travelling from 0.7320 levels down to 0.7200 against the US Dollar (USD) as risk markets turned sour. Equity markets went south and coronavirus fears heightened across the UK and parts of Europe bringing back concerns of further deaths and lockdowns. Deputy governor Debelle said he was watching the AUD carefully saying it was not clear if intervention would be effective as it’s “broadly aligned with fundamentals’ – a lower exchange rate would definitely be beneficial for the Australian economy. Dbebelle also said the RBA were considering taking the cash rate lower without going into negatives, and if absolutely necessary as the last resort going into the negatives. Monetary policy is a moving target as the economy ponders ongoing fallouts of lockdowns and further economic grief. Debelle’s comments weakened the AUD taking it to 0.7200 levels. We expect further downside momentum in the cross.
Current Level: 0.7215
Last Weeks Range: 0.7199-0.7345
A volatile week in the Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) cross has seen price shift between a range from 0.7250 to 0.7340 areas. The Federal Reserve left their rates band at 0.0- 0.25% with policy remaining unchanged even though the economy has seen a pick up in economic data of late. They have committed to keeping rates very low for at least 2 years to stimulate growth with the aim of achieving a consistent 2.0% inflation level over the long term. Australian Employment continues to strengthen in August with a 111,000 improvement to the labour force with the unemployment rate coming in considerably lower than the predicted 7.7% at 6.8% in August. This spiked a reasonable jump in the AUD but most importantly it will give the RBA some breathing space so they can keep their cautiously optimistic tone heading into the next policy release. The daily high at 0.7370 looks on the cards to be retested -the high from December 2018.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7315
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7254- 0.7345
An early risk on mood sent the Australian Dollar (AUD) higher to 0.7300 against the US Dollar Monday, the top of the recent range band, however as the US Dollar (USD) slump improved into Tuesday sessions price returned to 0.7270 as the AUD was sold. The Federal Reserve Statement and rate announcement will be important Thursday as the Fed may look to reinforce its new inflation scenario by adding more stimulus or may wait until after the US election. Australian jobs data prints later in the week with unemployment expected to rise to 7.7% for Augusts from July’s 7.5%. A decent release below 7.7% would almost certainly rally the AUD. The long-term bullish channel from March this year looks solid with further upside in the Aussie expected with the 100 day moving average trendline offering support above the 0.7000 physiological area.
Current Level: 0.7286
Last Weeks Range: 0.7193-0.7324
Friday trading see’s the Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) cross hovering around 10 points from the weekly open at 0.7270. With an extremely volatile equity market over the week the Aussie did however decline to 0.7200 midweek extending the bearish momentum from the high of 0.7400 from early September, before bounding back to 0.7325. The long-term bullish channel from March this year supports further upside in the Aussie especially with the 100 day moving average trendline offering support around the 0.7240 area. Next week’s Australian Unemployment release and US Federal Reserve rate and policy announcement will be our focus.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7270
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7191- 0.7324
Although the Australian Dollar (AUD) was sold down to 0.7270 levels last week from a high of 0.7410 it maintains a bullish bias against the US Dollar (USD) this week. Dropping below 0.7230 however could signal a trend change, but for now the Aussie looks very well supported on dips, even with the big dollar strength of late. Buyers were back in USD after Non-Farm Payroll printed bang on expectations for August at 1.371M with the Unemployment Rate sharply lower at 8.4% from July’s 10.2%. The safe haven USD retreat was also of note as US/China tensions deteriorated again with US officials looking to ban Chinese chipmaker SMIC exports to the US. We don’t see the cross travelling too far this week with a lack of relevant economic data printing. Expected direction: topping out at 0.7360
Current Level: 0.7275
Last Weeks Range: 0.7222-0.7413
The Australian Dollar (AUD) wasn’t able to maintain momentum against the US Dollar (USD) late Tuesday after reaching an August 2018 high of 0.7415, falling sharply giving back gains to 0.7255 into Friday Sessions. Different to recent weakness in the USD this shift has been mostly due to “risk off” sentiment as equity markets reversed off highs Thursday. Also of note the RBA left their cash rate unchanged Tuesday at 0.25% a record low prior to the much more awaited second quarter GDP release. Figures showed a drop of 7.0% instead of the 6.0% expected to June putting the country squarely in a recession cycle. Tonight’s Non-Farm Payroll release for August jobs numbers is in focus with expectations of a drop to unemployment numbers of around 1.3M
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7273
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7251- 0.7413
The Australian Dollar (AUD) never missed a beat extending its run higher against the US Dollar (USD) to 0.7350 at the close of the week and 0.7400 into Tuesday. With the recent dovish Fed the downtrodden US Dollar remains on the backfoot. This is the highest level since December 2018. A weekly close above 0.7390 could clear the way for another wave well into the 0.74’s. Today’s RBA rate announcement and policy statement should not highlight anything new except a consensus view of a dovish economic forecast. Tomorrow’s second quarter GDP is probably more useful and will print somewhere close to a -6.0% result ending June 30. This follows the -0.3% downturn result for the first quarter squarely putting the Australian economy in recession. Predicted direction this week: a return towards 0.7100
Current Level: 0.7397
Last Weeks Range: 0.7150-0.7402
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its run higher against the US Dollar (USD) to 0.7290 early Friday after risk currencies were boosted by Fed comments. The Federal Reserve unanimously approved a shift to their inflation goal of 2.0%. The Fed will target average inflation and perhaps employment in periods when inflation has been below 2.0%. This is a move which will see lower borrowing costs for some time. This won’t lead to any significant changes to the way the Fed is currently running monetary policy because it already incorporated these changes formally earlier. Fed chairman Powell said the revamp was to address the following- “reality of a quite difficult macroeconomic context of low interest rates, low inflation, relatively low productivity, slow growth and those kinds of things”. What we could see for a while is the US Dollar may lose some of its “yield” edge and underperform further over the long term. Looking ahead we have the RBA rate announcement and statement Tuesday. We expect the cross to consolidate around these levels until then.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7284
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7145- 0.7289
Price in the Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) reached 0.7270 mid last week, a 27 January 2020 high. Since then the Aussie has eased back towards a 3-week medium style level around 0.7170. The main event on this week’s calendar will be the Jackson Hole event in Wyoming starting Thursday, but before then we have Australian construction for the second quarter expected to print a poor -6.5% after a drop of -1.0% for the first quarter. This could restrict the AUD to the topside. Although we have seen a tapering off from the bullish trend over the past few weeks in momentum for the Aussie the currency is still sitting at healthy levels above the 50-day moving average from early April. We need to view price change below 0.7050 to see a change to the current trend.
Current Level: 0.7176
Last Weeks Range: 0.7136-0.7275
Recent Australian Dollar (AUD) action has seen price move from a higher lows, to higher highs pattern against the US Dollar (USD) with the Aussie bouncing off Thursday’s low of 0.7140 to reach 0.7210 midday Friday. A dovish Federal Reserve and a neutral RBA after the central bank said it sees no need to ease policy just yet based on current measures, means the AUD will continue to be well supported. US weekly Jobless claims were higher than predicted at 1.106M vs 930K and continuing claims fell 633K to 14.84M. We are reminded that the US economy has a long way to go. Technically we expect further upside for the AUD as the daily moving average confirms bullish momentum above 0.7100 levels. Looking ahead to next week we have an array of data to publish- stay tuned for a volatile week.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7207
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7135- 0.7275
The Australian Dollar was relatively flat last week meandering around 0.7150 levels vs the US Dollar (USD) but has picked up its game this week surging to 0.7230 as risk sentiment improved. The Aussie is very close now to extending through heavy multi zone resistance at 0.7240. I wouldn’t bet against it with several moving average patterns supporting higher highs to come. It could be a slow week for currency action however with a very thin week of economic data to come. We see just the usual weekly US jobs numbers later in the week but for now direction will be played out by headline news items and its effects on risk markets. Of note, the USD continues to lose ground with the US Dollar index down at 92.70 from early June’s 98.00 style levels.
Current Level: 0.6552
Last Weeks Range:0.7110-0.7226
A chipper Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar USD) pair has spent the week bouncing around the opening price of 0.7150 over the week with an array of data publishing. Aussie jobs numbers initially boosted the AUD to 0.7190 as 114,000 people returned to the workplace in July. US unemployment claims showed a significant improvement in the week to 8 Aug coming in less than 1m at 963k for the first time in months and a decrease of 228,000 from the previous week. These figures are consistent with the drop in new coronavirus numbers, while this points to an improvement in economic recovery its early days. The news sent price back to 0.7185 early Friday. The long term high at 0.7240 will hold another week or so especially with little on the calendar next week to shift price far.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7138
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7108- 0.7190
The Australian Dollar (AUD) was sold down to the bottom of the recent channel to 0.7150 against the US Dollar (USD) at week’s end as the US recovered off its lows. Risk sentiment deteriorated as tensions between China and the US worsened after Trump banned WeChat and TikTok. This will undoubtedly put further strain on the already crumbling trade negotiations between the two countries. Australian jobs data prints Thursday with the unemployment rate to squeeze higher to 7.8% from the current 7.4%. Attention later in the week turns to US Retail Sales for July with further recovery expected (7.5%) after June Sales grew 7.5% also. A break below 0.7100 would almost certainly indicate a broad based wider sell off in the pair. Expected direction this week: downward bias on the AUD
Current Level: 0.7146
Last Weeks Range: 0.7106-0.7242
The unstoppable Australian Dollar (AUD) broke past prior resistance at 0.7225 Friday to post a fresh February 2019 high of 0.7235 after overnight US weakness continued to push risk currencies higher. Earlier the RBA maintained their current policy settings with the cash rate remaining on 0.25% and the yield on 3-year govt bonds. Lowe commented the economy is experiencing a severe downturn as the country tries to contain coronavirus concerns. Victoria new cases are still high and a new community outbreak in Sydney looks to have let the cat out of the bag. The cross is fairly unmoved as markets await tonight’s US Non-Farm Payroll release for further direction.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7232
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7075- 0.7242
The Australian Dollar (AUD) fell away from 0.7220 towards the end of the week against the US Dollar (USD) to close around 0.7140 as investors squared short big dollar positions for end of month balancing. US Manufacturing surprised to the upside offering another reason for investors to buy back USD. With coronavirus concerns and stricter lockdowns hitting Victoria we could see further AUD corrections. Today’s RBA is the focus with no change expected from 0.25% with possibly a more hawkish stance expected. Hard to see with economic concerns weighing. Looking ahead we have Non-Farm Payroll for July which is expected to reflect a far better result around 1.5M from previous months. Expected weekly direction: AUD strength through 0.7200.
Current Level: 0.7119
Last Weeks Range: 0.7067-0.7226
The Australian Dollar (AUD) broke into new territory early Friday passing last week’s high of 0.7170 against the US Dollar (USD) on its way to 0.7210 around midday trading. Second quarter US GDP didn’t disappoint coming in a whopping -32.9% after recording -4.8% for the first quarter, officially dropping the US into a formal recession. Coronavirus still continues to weaken the big dollar and unless it’s contained and new cases start to drop we could see third and fourth quarter numbers also show a terribly declining economy. Adding to the US woes was weekly jobless claims which showed an increase of 1.43M people filed for unemployment to the week ending 25th July. Next week’s RBA cash rate and statement holds attention along with US NFP later in the week. Buying USD is extremely attractive currently after rising over 8c in the past 3 months from 0.6400 levels.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7202
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7084- 0.7213
Arguably the widening yield differential between the Australian currency (AUD) and the US Dollar (USD) has buyers of the Aussie not easing up with 5 weeks straight of new highs – the cross trades at 0.7150 Tuesday morning. The RBA said they are comfortable with the currency trading at these levels and RBA’s Kent said yesterday he wasn’t considering negative rates in the current market conditions. US Dollar weakness is also driving the decline of the USD. Advanced GDP publishing Thursday night won’t be helping, with expectations that we will see a decline of 35% in the second quarter result. The current stimulus package will come under scrutiny when the Fed meets on Thursday morning with analysts viewing the current package as not enough to stimulate a V shaped US economic recovery. 0.7200 is the next point of resistance in the pair, we think under current US weakness this could easily be broken.
Current Level: 0.7175
Last Weeks Range: 0.7016-0.7182
It has been a week of strong gains for the Australian dollar (AUD) against the United States dollar (USD). Strong iron ore prices are definitely providing a solid foundation for the AUD at the moment and the Reserve Bank of Australia made it clear on Tuesday that they are more than comfortable with its current level, largely green lighting further gains. As positive risk sentiment swept through the markets in the first half of this week the AUD managed to rally to a high of 0.7182, although we have seen a bit of a correction lower in the last 12 hours after US weekly unemployment claims printed higher than expected at 1.4m, bringing a heavy dose of reality to otherwise buoyant markets. Friday morning the AUD sits at 0.7095, well above the first level of key support around 0.7035. As long as the pair holds above that support level, the bias remains toward further gains.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7110
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6972 – 0.7182
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is looking to break topside resistance in the coming hours, days as it sits at the top of recent ranges around 0.7025 against the US Dollar (USD). A daily close above 0.7020 the July 2019 high, could signal further upside momentum. It’s a bizarre time to watch this cross as all roads lead to a lower AUD. With coronavirus blowing out in Victoria and consumer confidence falling again this week together with high unemployment numbers and a revised poor GDP expectation for the third quarter the cross should be a whole lot lower. In a nutshell the AUD is very underpinned by the booming mining industry due to strong industrial demand from China which has sent the iron ore price above 105.00 per ton in recent days.
Current Level: 0.7029
Last Weeks Range: 0.6922-0.7037
A flood of economic data over the week has given the Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) volatility, the Australian Dollar with the slight edge into Friday. Price reached 0.7035 midweek but dropped lower under the key 0.7000 to 0.6970 as Aussie jobs data was released. The Unemployment Rate printed slightly higher than markets were predicting at 7.4% vs 7.2% re-confirming the Aussie sell off even though employment increased 210,000 from estimates of 106,000 for the month of June. With coronavirus making a mess still in Australian especially in the state of Victoria the Aussie should be trading at much lower levels and is outperforming. We think the main reason is positive Chinese industrial production with manufacturing bouncing back and strong iron ore prices (currently 105 per ton). We could see further heights reached in the Aussie if the ore price continues higher or a significantly lower Aussie if the Ore price drops as it’s expected to do based on global demand.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6981
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6920- 0.7037
The Australian Dollar (AUD) was higher off the bat Monday against the US Dollar (USD) as risk sentiment extended from last week. Price was higher into Tuesday to 0.6990 before we saw a mood change taking the Aussie back to 0.6930. Broad based US Dollar flows improved the big dollar with price hovering just above support at 0.6930. Looking ahead Thursday’s Aussie jobs data including June unemployment releases with expectations the unemployment rate will click higher to 7.2% from 7.1%. A break below 0.6900 could confirm further falls to 0.6850 and beyond.
Current Level: 0.6941
Last Weeks Range: 0.6922-0.7001
The Australian Dollar (AUD) climbed back to reach the magical 0.7000 Thursday as risk markets supported further upside bias and the US Dollar (USD) was sold off. Early Friday market tone turned with a flood of new coronavirus in the US as market anxiety towards economic recovery soured, the cross turned back to 0.6950. RBA’s Lowe maintained the current 0.25% Tuesday choosing to stick with current policy. He said although indicators have picked up over the last few weeks the worst of the global economic downturn has passed. Big call, with outlook to remain bumpy especially as they try to contain coronavirus in Victoria. A return to lockdown in Melbourne for the next 6 weeks will hurt the Victorian economy as tourism and business falters. Jobless claims in the US printed at 1.3M slightly lower than the number predicted but news of 60,000 new cases of coronavirus had markets turning to safe haven USD. The Aussie at this point may struggle to regain the upper hand through 0.7000 in the coming days/weeks.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6947
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6921- 0.7000
The Australian Dollar (AUD) advanced through 0.6960 resistance Monday against the US Dollar (USD) to register a fresh high Tuesday lunch just shy of the magical 0.7000 level at 0.6995. Clearly it won’t take much for this key level to be broken if we see risk sentiment continue to a little longer. US Manufacturing bounced back to 57.1 on the index from 50.0 expected back to pre- coronavirus levels in February mirroring the improvements seen in the economy earlier in the year. It’s the largest again on record which was to be expected given the US economy closures. Today’s RBA cash rate announcement and monetary policy should come and go without any fanfare at a low key meeting. However, with the AUD overvalued we could see some talk around bring the Aussie down in time which could clearly pressure the AUD above 0.7000
Current Level: 0.6970
Last Weeks Range: 0.6836-0.6950
The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovered off 0.6830 earlier in the week against the US Dollar (USD) to regain the edge as risk sentiment improved. Reaching a high early Friday of 0.6950 the Aussie improved on coronavirus vaccine headlines. NFP released a day early (Friday morning) because of the 4th of July US holiday tomorrow. Results surprised to the upside when figures showed the labour market accelerated in June with gains of 4.8M people compared to 3.0M people re-entered the workforce. Unemployment dropped to 11.1% from 13.3% in May having peaked at 14.7% which is a staggering result. Bias is to the upside while risk mood is high, we expect the AUD to be tested at next week’s RBA rate and monetary statement announcement.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6922
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6833- 0.6950
The Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) opened Monday around 0.6860 and sits Tuesday just above this level at 0.6872. It appears the cross could stay within recent ranges this week, it seems well supported above 0.6800 and has not closed below this level since early June. To the topside 0.6965 show’s solid resistance, we think a retest to this level is most likely this week. US Pending Home Sales this morning spiked to 44.3% in May a record number compared with April’s -21.8% showing the largest 1 month jump in the history of surveyed results. June figures will no doubt represent the true picture of the housing market in the US. First wave or second wave coronavirus in the US – who knows, either way it’s out of control in several states with new clusters on the rise. If not bought under control we will see markets turn “risk off” which will see the Aussie deteriorate in the second half of the year.
Current Level: 0.6867
Last Weeks Range: 0.6841-0.6974
Positive risk sentiment came unstuck midweek across markets taking the Australian Dollar (AUD) lower against the US Dollar (USD) to 0.6880 Friday. Three factors have weighed down the Aussie – coronavirus outlook worry, US-China trade concerns and the latest Intl Monetary Fund downgrading of the global economy GDP for 2020. However, the Aussie has held up reasonably well- some suggesting its true value is well below 0.6800 levels. US weekly job losses ending 19th June reached 1.5M a little higher than economic forecasts, highlighting a coronavirus led layoffs are still elevated- the second week in a row numbers have been higher than estimates. A drop below 0.6770 trendline support would almost certainly indicate a deeper decline in the cross. Certainly, the recent high at 0.7060 seems a long way off.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6868
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6810- 0.6973
The Australian Dollar (AUD) dipped to 0.6810 post weekly open action against the US Dollar (USD) but has regained losses into Tuesday sessions to 0.6930. US Dollar weakness along with a fresh bout of “risk on” sentiment has pushed the AUD to regain momentum as it now eyes 0.7000. RBA’s Lowe talked up the AUD yesterday saying current levels were acceptable but later in the year he expects the AUD to be lower to assist with the economic rebuild and to keep inflation ticking higher. US coronavirus cases are starting to blow out in Texas, Arizona and California among others which is why the US has taken a hit in the past day or so. Afterall cases in Australia in particular Victoria are also rising with fresh community outbreaks, its survival of the fittest with Australia winning out for now- just. We have seen talk of the pair reaching a top around 0.7400 this year- we can’t see it. Strong daily resistance is at 0.7050 ahead – even at these levels it looks overvalued.
Current Level: 0.6921
Last Weeks Range: 0.6810-0.6976
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has drifted off last week’s high at 0.7060 against the US Dollar (AUD) reversing gains to 0.6860 Friday. Risk sentiment has been largely to blame along with Australian employment data printing. Jobs numbers printed at -227,000 versus -105,000 expected for May. The Unemployment rate also climbed higher than expected from 6.9% to 7.1% confirming the fallout from coronavirus will be the worst economic collapse in decades. Yet if we compare second quarter GDP for Australia of -8.0% and that of the US at around -17% we could argue that comparatively Australia is doing ok. The recent uptrend should continue for a while yet with expectations of a return to post 0.7000 levels.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6858
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6777- 0.6975
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has surged off 0.6770 early Monday’s level to push back to 0.6970 into Tuesday against the US Dollar (USD) as risk sentiment improves. The US Fed boosted confidence by saying they were expanding their “main street” lending program to provide access to credit for non-profit organisations. They are also changing up their bond buying program and how they purchase bonds. Australian employment numbers for May are not expected to be quite as bad as April’s -594,000 with another -75,000 predicted. Anything worse could undermine the Aussie. Buying USD over 0.6950 looks attractive for those who want to take the end of week event risk off the table.
Current level: 0.6943
Last Weeks Range: 0.6776-0.7063
In the aftermath of a Fed dovish decision the Australian Dollar (AUD) has backed off from its recent towering high from 0.7063 to 0.6810 at Friday lunch. Markets haven’t taken kindly to the dovish Fed decision resulting in downward pressure of all risk related products. Leading the way has been US indices dropping over 5% overnight. NAB Business Confidence highlighted a broad-based improvement in activity with confidence levels a little more positive in May. In the short term we may see investors chase risk off tone into the weekend especially if we see a negative start in the NY session tonight. Next week we have important data releasing with Aussie unemployment and US Retail Sales for May.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6828
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6798- 0.7062
The Australian Dollar has advanced to a fresh high of 0.7020 against the US Dollar (USD) today ploughing through the physiological level of 0.7000 without a glance back. This marks a return to the 2020 high of 0.7020 with the test now to see if the AUD can hold gains into the evening sessions towards the close of the week. The Federal Reserve cash rate and statement is Thursday morning with comments to support a dovish tone and no change to the 0.25%. President Trump says he will keep the door open for more virus relief to consumers and business with talks still ongoing about potential tax cuts. It would take something fairly hefty to reverse the momentum the Aussie has. Buyers of the USD should consider these levels.
Current Level: 0.7002
Last Week Range: 0.6775-0.7041
Australian Dollar (AUD) demand continues. Huge US Dollar (USD) weakness has taken the cross to 0.6930 today from the weekly open price of 0.6660 – a whopping 3.4% gain over two days of trading. We have seen no apparent drivers from the AUD, gains have been on the back of events taking place in the US. The killing of George Floyd has caused rioting and looting across the country so much so President Trump has bought in the National Guard. With coronavirus out of control and no vaccine in sight as well as massive unemployment- these factors will weigh down the big Dollar for some time. The Aussie now eyes the yearly open price of 0.6985, I would bet against the AUD pushing through 0.7000 by week’s end.
Current Level: 0.6969
Last Week Range: 0.6597-0.6959
The Australian Dollar (AUD) bounced off resistance of 0.6685 against the US Dollar (USD) a new high and tracked lower into Friday as equities reversed highs. Worse than expected US data this week has kept the USD on the backfoot including another poor week of people unemployment with 2.1M more filing for benefits. Pending home sales also printed poor for the second straight month with the Index falling 21.8% in April. RBA’s Lowe said without a covid-19 medical vaccine the recovery in Australia will be slow with optimism and confidence extremely low. Next week is a massive week for data with all the major monthly releases aligning. Buyers of Aussie should consider at current prices over 0.6600 and take out some of the downside risks with prices expected to be shifty in the coming days.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6629
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6519- 0.6680
After a solid start last week with a move from 0.6410 to a high of 0.6616 the AUD looks to have run out of steam, trading in a narrow 0.6510-0.6555 band over the last 3 days. With tensions rising between Australia’s largest trading partner China and continued strong words from China on tariffs for Australian imports the AUD will struggle to make headway over the 0.6600 level. Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison earlier today unveiled his ‘JobMaker’ plan that is supposed to help the country’s economy get out of critical care, return it to growth, and slash unemployment – which has reached almost 10%….The markets showed little response to the plan and will await more detail. Risk on this currency is now on the downside, as any acceleration of Chinese tariffs (or rhetoric of the same) will bring back selling pressure for the AUD….A break of 0.6500 would target 0.6480 then 0.6410.
Current Level: 0.6546
Last Weeks Range: 0.6410-0.6613
Overnight renewed trade tensions between the US and China have resurfaced, taking the Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) cross off its high of 0.6615 back to 0.6565 deep into Friday sessions. RBA Lowe has been doing his bit to offset Aussie weakness saying the central bank was not considering adding negative interest rates to his toolbox. US jobs claims saw a further 2.44M people file for unemployment ending last week making this a staggering total in the past 8 weeks of 36M people. The price closing above the prior daily level at 0.6555 and now above the 100-day moving average further upside bias is expected to continue into next week.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6562
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6410- 0.6615
The Australian Dollar (AUD) firmed Monday off the week ending low of 0.6400 against the US Dollar (USD) as risk sentiment improved taking price to 0.6535. Sitting just off the recent daily close of 0.6555 from early March we see a possible break through this zone if momentum continues. The other side of the coin is a bounce lower off this resistance level, we will know in the coming few hours. RBA minutes will be key this afternoon from the May 8th meeting. The RBA held back the urge to purchase additional QE bonds since the last RBA meeting but suspect today could change that with the willingness to expand the bond buying program when necessary to add relief to economic fallout from coronavirus. US unemployment claims later in the week again could add volatility to the pair.
Current Level: 0.6532
Last Weeks Range: 0.6402-0.6545
The Australian Dollar (AUD) matched the 10 March high of 0.6560 versus the US Dollar early week but failed to kick on. Australian Jobs numbers for April highlighted the difficulties the economy faces releasing its biggest monthly Jobs decline on record of 595K for April. The number was fairly expected with falls perhaps mitigated by the unemployment rate not rising as much (6.2% v 8.3%). Prime Minister Morrison said it was devastating to lose so many jobs. Federal Reserve’s Powell pushed back on negative rates at the detriment of President Trump’s displeasure. Powell spoke to a prolonged economic downturn and a slower recovery than first thought. To make matters worse it seems markets are bracing for US and China less than amicable relations ahead. US employment numbers for last week were the only positive with 2.9M filing for unemployment- these numbers are trending down w/w. US Retail Sales prints tonight for April and should print around the -12% mark affecting risk sentiment which could take price under the 0.6400 level into the close.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6459
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6402- 0.6560
The Australian Dollar (AUD) dipped back to 0.6380 late last week against the US Dollar (USD) before regaining its mojo improving to 0.6540 at the weekly close. Monday saw a slight improvement to 06560 before bears sold off AUD back to 0.6460 into Tuesday. Aussie Business Confidence today won’t be pretty and could put additional pressure on the AUD. Friday’s US Non-Farm Payroll printed slightly better than we were predicting with 20.5M people losing their jobs in April compared to 22M expected, with the unemployment rate jumping sharply to 14.7% from 4.4%. This was seen as a win for the US and pushed risk higher. Looking ahead is Thursday’s Aussie jobs numbers with predictions of an increase of around 8.0% from 5.2% unemployment in April likely. If we see price slip below support at 0.6400 a bigger break lower is possible.
Current Level: 0.6445
Last Weeks Range: 0.6378-0.6561
Support for the Australian Dollar (AUD) grew another leg Thursday against the US Dollar (USD) as risk traders took the Aussie higher off the back of positive Chinese data. Rebounding off 0.6375 early in the week Chinese Trade Balance figures showed a surprising boost in the March result with 318B instead of the expected 6.4B printing, this sent buyers back into AUD. Earlier in the week the RBA left the cash rate at 0.25% at its policy meeting with the board saying they won’t increase the cash rate until full employment is reached and they can be confident inflation can be sustained within the 2-3% band. Nearly 3.2M people filed for the unemployment benefit in the week ending 2nd May taking the running total to 33.4M , the only positive thing with this number is it shows a slowing trend from early April’s 6.6M. Non-Farm Payroll releases tomorrow morning and is expected to bring in numbers around 21.4M for April. We expect the Aussie to track higher with a break through the prior daily close at 0.6560 on the cards.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6498
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6376- 0.6509
The Australian Dollar (AUD) came off a 7-week high of 0.6570 reversing gains against the US Dollar (USD) heading into the weekly close around 0.6420 feeling the pressures of a broad based risk off sentiment. China and US trade tensions have reared up again amid US officials still pointing the finger at a Wuhan Lab as the source of the coronavirus pandemic. Trump backtracked on his earlier death predictions saying deaths could now be as high as 100,000. Currently US deaths stand around the 68,000 mark but with no actual solid strategy in place to halt the spread we suspect the deaths could go well above his predictions. Today’s RBA cash rate and monetary statement may end up being a non-event with markets targeting the week’s end Non-Farm Payroll numbers to focus on. Predictions suggest the number of people filing for unemployment in April could be upwards of 21M, with the number of Americans filing for unemployment since mid-March standing at more than 30M, these numbers have not looked this bad since the 1930’s. A risk off tone supports the dire US economic position; we expect the Aussie to retest the 0.6250 zone before the week is out.
Current Level: 0.6435
Last Weeks Range: 0.6373-0.6569
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has gone from strength to strength versus the US Dollar (USD) creating higher highs and lower lows over a 5 week run. The turnaround from 0.5700 levels to today’s 0.6490 has been clearly significant especially recently. Australian coronavirus numbers are low and well under control allowing bulls to take control with investors feeling optimistic of future economic outlook. Chinese data has also contributed recently with a lot of factories reopening- furthermore the iron ore price has stabalised around 84.00 per ton. We suspect the Aussie may run into some headway at 0.6640, key long term resistance with it teetering in overbought territory. As long as coronavirus deaths and new cases increase in the states at an alarming clip, we may yet see another wave higher in cross develop.
Current Level: 0.6507
Last Weeks Range: 0.6251-0.6404
The Australian Dollar sits just off recent highs at 0.6360 against the US Dollar (USD) as the Aussie reignites a second wave higher over recent weeks. The US released a worse than expected jobless claims report for the week ending April 18 with a further 4.4M people filing for unemployment. This was seen by some as a positive result with recent weekly numbers perhaps passing the peak. A total of 26M people in the US have lost their jobs in the past 5 weeks, which is approximately 16% of the total workforce, as a result the jobs created since 2010 have been completely wiped out. The result weirdly had a benign effect on the cross with the US Dollar index holding strong. US Indices were also flat but with coronavirus numbers still publishing chaotic things will only get worse before they improve. With risk allowing we expect the AUD to break back into the 0.65’s.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6357
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6251- 0.6405
The Australian Dollar (AUD) holds around the 0.6340 area Tuesday against the US Dollar (USD) for the second week. A cautious tone runs deep over markets with countries starting to relax lockdown/movements around coronavirus. Overnight crude dropped to a 21 year low falling below zero and has weighed a tad on risk products and the AUD weighted commodity currency. Looking ahead we have no data to look out for other than the standard weekly US unemployment reading Friday. Over the past 4 weeks we have seen job losses of over 21 million with expectations of a further 5.2million this week. Watch for today’s RBA minutes from the last RBA monetary policy meeting- he will no doubt speak on the guidance of how to handle Australia’s lockdown going forward. Topside for the AUD looks limited- we expect price to fall away back to 0.6170 late March support.
Current Level: 0.6322
Last Weeks Range: 0.6264-0.6443
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its 5 week run higher against the US Dollar (USD) to 0.6435 into Wednesday and looks to push higher in the coming sessions. Tomorrow’s Aussie jobs data will be key as analyst expectations are for march job losses of around 30,000 and unemployment to sharply rise higher to 5.4% from 5.1%. The AUD has been fundamentally in favour based on big dollar weakness and risk appetite. AUD successes have also been measured by the containment of Covid-19 surprisingly Australia is still only in partial lockdown with many businesses still open. But it’s working. US employment figures will also release Friday with expectations of another 5.3M people filing for unemployment, this comes after 16M people have filed in the past 3 weeks. More than 2,000 people died yesterday, the biggest single day of deaths surpassing the total number of deaths in Italy. We expect more upside in this cross as cases rise in the USA.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6423
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6116- 0.6443
The Australian Dollar (AUD) tracked higher off last week’s low of 0.5980 Monday to 0.6110 into Tuesday as risk mood improved. Sentiment was poor Friday after US Non-Farm Payroll figures showed a contraction of 701,000 jobs to the economy in March painting a fairly grim outlook. This report is the worst in more than a decade and a lot worse than analysts were expecting especially given the report doesn’t include the last two weeks of the month when over 10 Million people in the US filed for unemployment. The Aussie also boosted by better death toll numbers published in key zones such as Italy, France and New York over the last day or so. If new virus numbers continue to level we could see the pair trade above 0.6215 resistance and test 0.6460. But this is a way off happening with everything needing to align.
Current Level: 0.6101
Last Weeks Range: 0.5981-0.6213
Early week the Australian Dollar (AUD) reached a two week high of 0.6215 against the US Dollar (USD) before slipping lower over the rest of the week. Overall the pair has been affected by risk off flows and Aussie business confidence slumping to an 11 year low. The disturbing outbreak in the US and the death tolls in France, Spain and Germany have extended lockdowns contributing to the poor mood. Overnight the number of Americans who filed for unemployment hit an all time high record of 6.648Million double the number from last week’s 3,600,000. This is an unprecedented 10Million people in two weeks. Non-Farm Payroll tonight is expected to also be an ugly result with numbers expected to be a contraction of 100,000 from the February 273,000 jobs added. If this happens it will increase the nation’s unemployment from 3.5% to 3.8%. Taking this into consideration we could see price slide lower to below the physiological 0.6000 mark
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6061
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6009- 0.6127
Australian Dollar (AUD) bulls are in charge extending the price off last week’s close of 0.6090 to 0.6170 into Tuesday against the US Dollar (USD). The wedge formation from 0.6660 and down to 0.5550 and back to current price show’s interesting reading when Fibonacci is plotted. Heavy support is indicated at 0.6100 and resistance at the 61.8% retracement area is 0.6235. We think this will hold and a retracement back towards 0.5960 is the likely outcome. After all, the Aussie under fundamental weakness in 2020 from around 0.7000 levels has not changed. US Dollar weakness won’t last, once they sort coronavirus and consumer confidence the US Dollar will again be a buy. The latest Fed unlimited QE gesture has hurt the big dollar of late. Buy USD while prices are good.
Current Level: 0.6178
Last Weeks Range: 0.5776-0.6200
Risk sentiment and overwhelming weakness in the US Dollar (USD) this week has sent the Australian Dollar (AUD) higher to 0.6050 reversing falls. It’s the first week the Aussie may close higher than the big dollar. Although over the past few week’s risk sentiment has deteriorated heading into the last London and NY sessions. Investors however do remain watchful despite the approval of the Senate’s 2.2Billion stimulus package. Covid-19 risks continue to disrupt the global economy with huge rises in cases. The most significant data release published for some time printed early this morning – US Unemployment claims which didn’t disappoint. Numbers of people filing for the unemployment benefit last week were 3,283,000 well over the estimated 1,648,000 expected. There is no doubt the US Dollar is on the backfoot, but we suspect price will drift lower towards the weekly close regardless.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6044
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.5696- 0.6083
The Aussie Dollar (AUD) has pushed a little higher to 0.5830 off the weekly open against the US Dollar (USD) amid improved risk sentiment Monday. This is good to see as US buyers have had it tough over the past while waves of AUD pessimism have taken the Aussie to record multi year lows recently. The Fed’ new plan to purchase an unlimited amount of Treasury Bonds and securities moves the central bank out of its traditional role. Meanwhile the Fed’s 2Trillion stimulus package or 10% of GDP is a massive package and will be mostly used as an emergency lending facility to support hundreds of billions of lending. Trump’s made the comment he would not let the cure be worse than the problem and the guidance only goes for 15 days – after which he will decide how to re-open the economy. He also says the Malaria drug Chloroquine will be available for medical use to fight the virus from next Tuesday. With price around the 0.5800 level I would strongly recommend buyers of USD to consider.
Current Level: 0.5890
Last Weeks Range: 0.5510-0.6143
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has underperformed against the US Dollar (USD) for 10 days straight reaching a low of 0.5506 during Thursday’s massive risk selloff. The Federal Reserve has announced that it will establish a second (PDCF) Primary Dealer Credit Facility to allow dealers to support smooth market functioning and facilitate the availability of credit/cash flow to businesses and households in the form of loans for up to 90 days. The move will hopefully limit the economic impact of the coronavirus. PM Scott Morrison has closed the Australian border beginning at 9pm today to everyone except residents and citizens of Australia. The release was seen as an extremely positive move by markets with the Aussie rallying back to 0.5940 over the following hours into Friday Morning. Risk mood again battered the Aussie in the early hours of Friday with price moving back to 0.5720. Buyers of USD should look closely at this spike and take advantage before price moves further into the low 50’s.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.5790
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.5508- 0.6298
Trading in the Australian Dollar (AUD) got off to a bad start Monday against the US Dollar (USD) as the currency dipped off the open around 0.6200 levels to trade down at 0.6115 into Tuesday sessions. Just shy of the recent multiyear level of 0.6078 the Aussie holds tough as coronavirus continues to drive markets. The Federal Reserve surprised us with a cut of 1.0% from 1.25% to 0.25% with Powell saying this measure will have an immediate effect on the US economy with fears it could slip into recession fairly quick otherwise. It won’t take long surely for the RBA to go the same way and pull back their 0.50% cash rate to 0.25% any day now to match other central banks as efforts to stimulate the Australian economy ramp up. We sound like a broken record, but will say it again – downside risks are still on the table for the AUD, buyers of USD should be acting quick on any little spike. For us anything over 0.6200 is attractive.
Current Level: 0.6108
Last Weeks Range: 0.6080-0.6681
Markets continue to be driven by coronavirus fears with the Australian Dollar (AUD) falling over 6.00% this week against the US Dollar (USD) to reach levels around 0.6250. The volatility has been nuts, with price shifts I have never seen before. Surprisingly the AUD held its own into Thursday morning around 0.6525 but was quickly sold off post Trump’s Europe travel ban announcement Friday morning to 0.6240. To be fair we have seen many coronavirus headlines this week- it’s out of control (literally). Trump says he will provide emergency financial relief for many in the form of fiscal and monetary measures – some say what has been presented is not enough with many millions of people without health cover as the virus spreads. AUDUSD will worsen as the virus worsens with a chance we could see the Aussie down at very low 0.60’s next week.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6272
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6216- 0.6676
Yesterday’s market meltdown saw the Australian Dollar (AUD) dive to 0.6315 around 2pm against the US Dollar (USD) before staging a recovery back to its weekly open circa 0.6610. The “flash crash” stemming from coronavirus worries and the crash in Crude Oil prices broke through multi year lows as risk sentiment shifted another gear for the worst. If coronavirus was damaging market sentiment and investor confidence, the latest headline surrounding the cut to oil prices by the Saudis after an agreement on production couldn’t be reached by Russia and OPEC things just got a whole lot more volatile. Downside bias remains in the AUDUSD pair with strong daily support seen at 0.6460.
Current Level: 0.6588
Last Weeks Range: 0.6311-0.6684
The Australian Dollar (AUD) bounced off the weekly closing low at 0.6440 levels against the US Dollar (USD) to reverse all of last week’s losses trading back to 0.6635. The RBA cut rates 25 points on Tuesday to 0.50% from 0.75% to support the economy as it responds directly to the global coronavirus outbreak. The RBA says they are prepared to ease further if the situation worsens and takes a chunk out of Australian first quarter growth. The Federal Reserve has also cut their benchmark rate during a surprise meeting Wednesday to 1.25% from 1.75% saying the country’s economy remains strong, but global virus fears will start to weigh on the economy with uncertainty on the horizon. The AUD tracked higher post cut and remains around 0.6615 as we head into tomorrow morning’s important US Non-Farm Payroll release and Unemployment Rate. Clients needing AUD should consider these levels as bias is still slanted to the downside with coronavirus in the air.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6618
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6465- 0.6644
Very choppy trading over the last couple of days with the Australian dollar (AUD) hitting lows against the USD around 0.6434, levels not seen in a decade as the Covid-19 virus batters the Chinese economy and the AUD by proxy. The AUD/USD has bounced back from a heavily oversold position to 0.6568 over the last 24 hours but ahead of today’s RBA interest rate decision it is now holding around the 0.6540 mark. The market has fully priced in a 0.25% cut this afternoon by the RBA. A hold on rates would see a rally back to the 0.6590 resistance point. A larger rate cut (0.50%, we view this as unlikely at this early stage) or overly bearish rhetoric in the RBA statement would see a decline to retest the 0.6434 low.
Current Level: 0.6538
Last Weeks Range: 0.6434-0.6621
The Australian Dollar is in freefall as the selloff continues through Friday sessions. The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been hit hard this week with price reaching 0.6585 as risk factors have been unsupportive along with poor data releasing. Construction work done came in for the fourth quarter 2019 a disappointing -3.0% from the -1.0% expected and overall for the 2019 year down overall -7.4%. This was followed by capex at -2.8% for the fourth quarter based on predictions of 0.5% growth. Surprisingly US Consumer Confidence wasn’t so hot either publishing Wednesday but data since has seen support for the US Dollar continue with Core Durable Goods, Prelim GDP m/m and Pending Home Sales for January showing a huge improvement in the number of homes sold. Coronavirus still weighs heavy on the Aussie affecting risk sentiment, we see further declines likely with massive support around 0.6200 looking shaky.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6566
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6541- 0.6621
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is fighting its way off multi year lows Tuesday after stabilising Monday around the 0.6600 level. The Aussie currency has been bearish for most of 2020 against the US Dollar (USD) amid poor data and ‘risk off” sentiment. 0.6600 represents an 11 year low back to March 2009. US data continues to show improvements with Producer and Manufacturing figures running in results higher than predictions. Tomorrow’s US Consumer Confidence and Thursday’s Private Capital Expenditure results are in focus with markets looking for ques outside coronavirus headlines. Light support is seen around mid 0.65’s but the chart doesn’t lie- efforts to stay above 0.6600 for the AUD look slim.
Current Level: 0.6612
Last Weeks Range: 0.6585-0.6721
The Australian Dollar (AUD) broke through solid support at 0.6665 Thursday against the US Dollar (USD) reaching 0.6615 Friday. This represents close to an 11 year low going back to March 2009. Heavy support is now seen around the 0.6600 area with nothing really below this point through to mid-0.65’s offering relief. US data has been outstanding this week with Building permits, Manufacturing and Producer prices all much higher than markets were expecting. Coronavirus risks haven’t really affected risk sentiment as much as the previous weeks, but the situation is far from over. The Fed maintained its current monetary policy stance, confirming at the minutes that rates would remain low for some time and the economy was showing resilience. Next week’s economic docket sees a slew of US data releasing amid Aussie Private Capital Expenditure, unless the risk sentiment brings buyers back into the AUD we could see further momentum to the downside.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6617
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6609- 0.6732
US holiday Monday saw thin currency markets as the US Dollar (USD), Australian Dollar (AUD) consolidates around 0.6715. RBA minutes of the 4th January policy meeting release this afternoon ahead of tomorrow’s Aussie wage data. RBA governor Lowe signalled he was more than happy with the Australian economy saying the outlook was improving and the “Chinese policy stimulus will be good for Australia ”. Unemployment data Thursday is expected to click slightly higher to 5.2% and put pressure on the AUD. Recent movement has seen the cross track consistently below the 100-day moving average. With all considered we expect price to slide lower and retest the 0.6660 recent low. A break below here could see the Aussie go much lower.
Current Level: 0.6709
Last Weeks range: 0.6672-0.6774
The Australian Dollar (AUD) avoided breaking into fresh lows below 0.6660 this week instead recovering above 0.6745 against the US Dollar (USD) as risk sentiment improved and China confirmed a new economic stimulus package. News yesterday in Asia of more deaths linked to coronavirus took price back to 0.6720 into Friday as a new wave of fear entered markets. RBA governor Lowe signalled he was more than happy with the Australian economy saying the outlook was improving and the “Chinese policy stimulus will be good for Australia”. US Retail Sales prints early tomorrow. A break below 0.6700 could see a return into the mid 0.66’s near the edge of the abyss. Price around the yearly open of 0.7015 certainly looks a distant memory.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6717
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6666- 0.6749
The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains close to historic lows around 0.6680 against the US Dollar (USD) as risk mood continues to depreciate the Aussie amid coronavirus. Yesterday’s daily close fell below key support at 0.6685 to 0.6666 for the first time in many years. The RBA left their cash rate unchanged last week at 0.75% with Lowe saying the economy looks set to show growth of 2-3% in 2020 despite ongoing economic concerns with bushfires and coronavirus. US Non-Farm Payroll boosted the US Dollar Friday after results saw a further increase in job numbers for January even though US unemployment clicked up from 3.5% to 3.6%. If we see another daily close below 0.6660 the Aussie could be sold off further. Friday’s US CPI m/m and Retail Sales for January could impact.
Current Level: 0.6378
Last Weeks Range: 0.6662-0.6774
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has suffered its worst January decline against the US Dollar in many years falling to 0.6690, or 4.70%, Tuesday from yearly open at 0.7015. With coronavirus the centre of attention globally China injected 174B USD into their economy Monday to offset further economic fallout. We suspect this will only add temporary relief for the Aussie. The RBA announce their cash rate today at 4.30 NZT with most analysts predicting no change from the 0.75% based on recent positive data releases such as jobs figures. The iron price fell a whopping 15% Monday to 79.82 per ton as Chinese manufacturing is scaled back. The drop in price won’t be helping any AUD recovery. Later in the week US Non-Farm Payroll and Aussie Retail Sales will impact price.
Current Level: 0.6685
Last Weeks Range: 0.6675-0.6772
The Australian Dollar (AUD) stretched its bearish decline against the US Dollar (USD) to 0.6715 Friday, this price marks the fifth week of declines confirming the Aussie has underperformed every week in 2020. 0.6700 base support is scary close with thin air and the abyss awaiting if we see a break below this level. The last daily close below 0.6700 was in 2008- 12 years ago. Fed’s Powell retained the cash rate at 1.75% saying he expects the economy to expand at a good pace through 2020 – the rate should remain on hold unless inflation slipped well below the target of 2.0%. He also said he would tolerate a period of above target inflation as long as the expectations remain well anchored and didn’t drift below estimate. Coronavirus headlines are still dominating currency direction with more and more cases being reported every day and the WHO (World Health Organisation) declaring a global emergency, obviously with a clear message. Next week is a massive week of economic releases including the RBA cash rate and statement and US Non-Farm Payroll. The longer markets remain “risk off” the lower the Aussie will go.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6487
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6699- 0.6819
For the fifth week straight the Australian Dollar (AUD) has declined against the US Dollar (USD) as this week’s risk sentiment wanes as coronavirus fears build. The Aussie has traded down to 0.6760 midday today and looks awfully heavy heading into key FOMC (Fed) statement and rate announcement Thursday. Aussie CPI is first up, expected to show a rise to prices of 0.6% for the last quarter 2019. Decent support at 0.6750 may hold further downside action in the pair with massive daily long-term support seen at 0.6700. The AUD/USD cross has had the biggest decline of any cross in 2020 with the Aussie depreciating a whopping 3.8% this year.
Current Level: 0.6752
Last Weeks Range: 0.6751-0.6879
The Australian Dollar (AUD) lost ground over the week against the US Dollar (USD) falling back to 0.6825 through Thursday. Australian Job numbers surprised to the upside after the official Unemployment Rate came in lower at 5.1% from 5.2% and the participation labour number for December rose 28,900 based on expectations of 12,000. The Aussie broke above the bearish channel after the news travelling back above 0.6850 extending to a high of 0.6880. The data has inevitably strengthened the case for the RBA to maintain their cash rate as perhaps the economy has turned a corner. Coronavirus has dampened any feel-good investors had after positive employment data as markets turned risk off, the Aussie retracing back to early December lows around 0.6830 Friday.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6846
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6825- 0.6888
Markets eased into the week with Martin Luther King holiday in the US creating thin trading conditions. The Australian Dollar fell Monday continuing last week’s decline to 0.6855 against the US Dollar (USD) but has since climbed back to 0.6875. Although markets have been feeling better lately post signing of the phase one trade deal between the US and China we also see a little worry around news that Chinese tariffs will remain in place through the November 2020 US Elections. Mike Pence confirmed phase two negotiations had already started. The Aussie has also held up well in the face of the massive bush fires which rage on, one can’t help think we could see a AUD correction over the coming months. This week Aussie Employment data is the only tier one news with the December unemployment rate expected to come in at 5.2%. To us the Aussie looks heavy and could take a look at the yearly low of 0.6855 this week.
Current Level: 0.6875
Last Weeks Range: 0.6855-0.6933
AUDUSD Support: 0.6830 Resistance: 0.6940
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has literally done nothing this week against the US Dollar (USD) except bounce around the open of 0.6900. Although we had the official signing of the US and China trade deal markets were relatively unfazed by the news clearly already factored into the price. US Retail Sales came in above expectations of 0.5% at 0.7% for the month of December while manufacturing figures for January were also improved. 0.6850 looks to offer a solid base, but at the same time 0.7000 seems a long way off. If we trust the charts daily series of higher highs and high lows from September 2019 price should track back above 0.6980 before depreciating again. With talk of the RBA adjusting their cash rate lower to accommodate the economic influence from the ongoing Australian fires, price action heading into the February 4th RBA cash rate meeting will be interesting.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6893
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6876- 0.6932
2019 open 0.7051, close 0.7007, high 0.7295, low 0.6670.
Late last week the Australian Dollar (AUD) pushed higher against the US Dollar (USD) coming off a low of 0.6845 to close at 0.6900. Weaker than expected US Non-Farm Payroll figures took investors out of the big dollar as optimism in the US China trade deal increased market appetite for risk. The Aussie looks to be well supported on dips below 0.6800 and could be looking at making a break above the pivotal 0.7000 level soon. Certainly a clean run above here to 0.7050 to support any upward bias would be necessary. December Retail Sales and CPI tomorrow to come.
Current Level: 0.6903
Last Weeks Range: 0.6849-0.6918
Stats from last year’s trading in the Australian Dollar, United States Dollar (AUD/USD) pair which may be of interest…2019 open 0.7051, close 0.7007, high 0.7295, low 0.6670. After making gains throughout much of December the AUDUSD peaked at 0.7032 just before New Year, and it’s been largely one way traffic to the downside since then. Broad based USD strength has been a key driver in the turnaround for the Aussie dollar, but we have also seen the AUD come under pressure on the back of the tragic wildfires that have been sweeping parts of the country. There is plenty of market speculation that the RBA could cut interest rates again in Feb to help counter some of the economic impact from the fires. There is around a 60% chance of an interest rate cut now priced into the market. That speculation should continue to see the AUD struggle to make any significant gains from its current level. The AUDUSD traded to 0.6849 last night, which marks the low point so far in 2020. There is support seen around 0.6830 and that may contain the weakness in the near term, while topside resistance now comes in around 0.6930 and we would be surprised to see a move above that level over the coming week. Data wise we have Australian Trade Balance today, followed by Retail Sales tomorrow, while from the US the focus is firmly on tomorrow night’s Non-Farm Payrolls numbers.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6871
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6845- 0.6952
After a high of 0.6934 last Friday, a 5 month level, the Australian Dollar (AUD) slipped to 0.6838 against the US Dollar (USD) on the back of a drop in risk sentiment on a return of “hard” Brexit fears and RBA dovish minutes weighing on the Aussie. Australian economic data continues to disappoint and along with expectations of a rate cut in Q1 a test of the 0.6830 immediate support level looks imminent.
Heading into 2020 the AUD continues to look on the back foot with any heightening of US/China trade tensions likely to further pressure the AUD with a test of the September 2019- 0.6670 low (a 10 year low) possible over the next few months.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6848
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6837- 0.6897
The AUD has enjoyed solid gains over the last couple of days with the AUD/USD breaking through resistance at 0.6900 to a nearly 5 month high at 0.6938 as the markets heightened risk appetite has taken hold. The AUD does look a little overdone with support around 0.6900 and next resistance level at 0.6970. With no local data out ahead of the weekend all AUD moves will be offshore driven …if the AUD/USD can continue to hold above the 0.6900 mark further gains could target 0.6970.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6915
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6799- 0.6938
While the Auustralian Dollar (AUD) bounced around last week on a plethora of mixed mainly Aussie data releases it has held 0.6800 against the US Dollar. Into Tuesday the cross has bounced off 0.6820 to 0.6830 as it looks to be in a mood to climb higher towards the four week high of 0.6850. Friday’s US Non Farm Payroll showed again just how solid the US economy is with a figure of 266,000 new jobs added to the economy in November. This astonishing number confirms the last three months average of 205,000 while the unemployment rate reduced to 3.5% from 3.6%. This week’s NAB business confidence is the highlight on the calendar with the Federal Reserve funds rate to publish Thursday with markets predicting no change to the 1.75%. Fundamentally risks still lie to the downside for the AUD into 2020 with trade negotiations far from over.
Current Level: 0.6825
Last Weeks Range: 0.6753-0.6860
The Australian Dollar (AUD) held 0.6800 against the US Dollar this week after travelling to 0.6860 earlier in the week. Mixed Aussie data made for some volatile movement. The RBA left their cash rate unchanged at 0.75% saying the global economy remains stable, while risks are still slanted to the downside, the RBA continue to watch intl trade flows and how Trump’s trade negotiations with China are affecting investment and business. The big Dollar has undeformed with ADP figures releasing lower at 67,000 from the 137,000 predicted. To be fair most Aussie prints have also missed their mark with Retail Sales and Trade Balance both coming in much lower than forecast. Looking ahead we have US Non-Farm Payrolls tonight forecast to come in with 181,000 new jobs added, if we follow ADP this figure could disappoint and send the AUD higher. Reaching the late November daily high of 0.6910 looks a fair distance. If the phase one trade deal can be signed off before Xmas we may see a retest at this level or higher.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6832
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6763- 0.6861
The Australian Dollar (AUD) bounced hard off 0.6700 levels on the weekly open to rally to 0.6820 against the US Dollar (USD) as risk sentiment improved. Reversing all of the losses seen in the pair over the past two weeks in a single day. Attention now turns to today’s RBA Cash Rate announcement and policy statement. No change is expected from the 0.75% but rhetoric over future policy may be interesting. Risk markets over the remainder of the week may be poor as the fallout with Trump reinstating steel and Aluminium tariffs on Brazil and Argentina to assist US Farmers filters through to currency markets. Later in the week, focus will be firmly on US Non-Farm Payroll figures and job’s numbers. The Aussie will do well to hold onto early week gains.
Current Level: 0.6820
Last Weeks Range: 0.6753-0.6826
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has retreated further versus the US Dollar (USD) to fresh lows around 0.6760 Friday. This is the fourth week straight the Aussie has underperformed buckling under a wave of data this week- US data has been more supportive with Core Durable Goods releasing at 0.6% from -0.5% forecast based on a surge in defence spending following quarterly prelim GDP at 2.1% from 1.9% as investors boost their fourth quarter forecasts higher. Aussie Capital Expenditure for the September quarter fell by 0.6% following the 0.8% in the second quarter showing further weakness in business investment. Next week’s RBA cash rate announcement and monetary policy statement will be the key focus with expectation of the RBA retaining the 0.75%. A daily close below 0.6700 represents trouble for the Aussie entering multi year lows.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6764
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6758- 0.6798
Positive US Manufacturing data Friday supported the US Dollar (USD) putting pressure on the Australian Dollar (AUD) as price fell to 0.6780. The cross looks to continue the five week decline towards pivotal support at 0.6750 this week if risk sentiment waivers. US data of late has all come in positive – last night’s Building Permits at 1.46M based on expectations of 1.39M shows a rebound in October permits for future home builds and follows a string of US supportive data. Both central banks speak later today with US consumer confidence tonight and Aussie Construction Work Done q/q the key data announcements. Big picture themes will dictate market mood with any news out of China/US regarding tariff negotiations. Recent headlines suggest a “phase one” deal may have been done- we are yet to see anything filter into markets as yet.
Current Level: 0.6776
Last Weeks Range: 0.6768-0.6834
The Australian Dollar (AUD) early week tried to extend moves above 0.6830 against the US Dollar (USD) but was knocked back as market risk mood deteriorated and greenback strengthened. A lack of real data this week has meant any movement has been limited to trade talks and Central bank speak. RBA’s Lowe said he was prepared to ease policy further is needed. The board agreed and said a “case could be made” for a cut at the December 3 meeting. Fed minutes also left the door open for further easing but the message was clearly hawkish. A range of economic data next week should ensure we see plenty of movement. A daily close through 0.6780 could spell a retest of the prior multi bottoms around 0.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6786
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6783- 0.6834
The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovered off last week’s low of 0.6770 to end the week at 0.6820 against the US Dollar (USD) as risk sentiment improved into the close. We have had nothing this week yet to move the cross far from its opening price, with most of the focus on waiting developments in the US/China trade front. RBA and Fed minutes from the last policy meetings are this week with the RBA later today- no changes are forecast while RBA’s Dedelle said mortgage arrears were unlikely to rise substantially based on yesterday’s slightly lower than predicted National Association of Home Builders Index figure. The long term bearish channel in the cross has a downside bias which could lead price back to around the recent low of 0.6680.
Current Level: 0.6807
Last Weeks Range: 0.6770-0.6857
The Australian Dollar (AUD) was hammered this week, not so much by a stronger US Dollar (USD) but driven by weaker data out of Aussie and a deteriorating risk mood. Coming from around 0.6860 it has given back all of the last fortnights gains falling back to 0.6780 Friday. Employment data printed worse than expectations with the jobs numbers for October contracting -19,000 for part-time and full-time employees entering the labour market. Also unemployment rose from 5.2% to 5.3% which is a concern for the RBA with expectations for unemployment to be much lower, this will raise rate cut concerns at the Dec policy meeting after saying their easing bias had come to an end. Next week’s Aussie jobs data and unemployment holds interest along with US quarterly CPI. Further declines look capped for the Aussie as it trades around the 61.8% Fib level, a retrace through 0.6800 is likely.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6784
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6768- 0.6864
Aussie Dollar stalled into 0.6925 mid last week against the US Dollar (USD) as fears of further trade talk issues hit Aussie sentiment. Price shifted lower to around 0.6850 at the close of the week and into Monday drifting to 0.6840. Solid support around 0.6800 levels could be tested this week if Australian jobs data tomorrow and Thursday disappoints. The rumour is unemployment should remain stable at 5.2% and so should new workers to the Aussie workforce for the third quarter. We favour a retest of the daily high at 0.6913 the 29 July level.
Current Level: 0.6850
Last Weeks Range: 0.6845-0.6929
The US Dollar was the strongest performer in the early stages of the week pushing price low to 0.6860 in the Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) cross. The ISM Manufacturing index offered a positive tone showing respectable growth in the sector boosting buyers of the big Dollar along with fresh optimism the US may wind back their currency tariffs on Chinese imported products. The RBA left rates unchanged Tuesday at the 0.75% predicted, with Lowe commenting that several key economic indicators have suggested further easing may not be required in this current economic cycle. Looking ahead we have Aussie jobs data Wednesday followed by US Retail Sales. Certainly, if speculation of improved negotiations in the US/China war eventuate we could see risk products such as the AUD surge over the coming days/weeks. 0.6900 represents the daily resistance level, a bounce above here could see further appreciation in the Aussie.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6884
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6861- 0.6927
The Australian Dollar (AUD) rallied off the open to a high of 0.6925 before fading back to 0.6880 against the US Dollar (USD) midday lunch time. The fall in the Aussie over the past few hours seems strange given the risk on move shift late Friday from positive talks on the US/China trade negotiations failed to extend price. A broadly stronger greenback from Friday’s better than expected Non-Farm Payroll release perhaps firmed the USD with a delayed reaction. All eyes are on the RBA’s cash rate decision today with no change expected from the 0.75%. The RBA has cut rates 75 basis points in 2019. The cross sits around key daily support of 0.6870 – we expect the AUD to regain early week losses and push higher towards 0.6950 post RBA.
Current Level: 0.6889
Last Weeks Range: 0.6835-0.6929
The Australian Dollar (AUD) bounced off last week’s slide to 0.6810 recovering losses to trade up to 0.6925 into Thursday. This is the first time the price has broken above the daily close of 0.6875 since 30 July. The Federal Reserve cut cash rates 25 basis points to 1.75% as widely expected by comments by Powell following in the Fed Statement were decisively more hawkish than markets were expecting. Powell made comments suggesting any further easing is on hold saying twice that monetary policy is “in a good place”. Aussie CPI released bang on expectations suggesting this wasn’t dire and wasn’t poor either – investors purchased the AUD after the release. Looking ahead we have (NFP) US Non-Farm Payroll tomorrow morning which is expected to show an improvement of 90,000 jobs were added to the US workforce in October. Next week’s RBA is the focus on the calendar with a 50% chance they will cut rates to 0.50%. For now 0.6875 should hold with a view that price could travel back above 0.6900 before the close.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6885
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6810- 0.6928
The Australian Dollar (AUD) retraced early week losses from the low of 0.6810 to reach 0.6847 into Tuesday against the US Dollar. The key area around 0.6710 is showing pivotal support for the Aussie confirmed also by the 100 day moving average. Risk sentiment will play a big part this week with a number of important economic releases to publish which could affect recent momentum. The Federal Reserve will almost certainly cut rates this Thursday morning 25 points to 1.75% expected to be the last time for 2019 as US economic growth stabalises and long range GDP forecasts remain steady. US Non-Farm Payroll close the week out with expectations of further improvements to employed numbers of 90,000. Unemployment is due to edge higher to 3.6% from 3.5%. We expect price to extend through to 0.6900 over the coming days, especially if risk sentiment stays buoyant.
Current Level: 0.6840
Last Weeks Range: 0.6809-0.6882
The Australian Dollar (AUD) eased lower off the recent high of 0.6880 Tuesday against the US Dollar (USD) to 0.6815 and looks heavy. Nervous selling ahead of the speech by Vice President Pence weighed on sentiment. US Durable goods fall 1.1% in September, the first time in three months reflecting alarming weakness in manufacturing which will bother US economy analysts ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Looking ahead we have a very busy week of economic releases with Aussie q/q CPI, Federal Reserve cash rate, Non-Farm Payroll and US Unemployment Rate. The Federal Reserve are expected to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.0% for now with slight tweaks to recent monetary policy rhetoric expected.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6817
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6810- 0.6881
The Australian Dollar (AUD) clicked higher to 0.6880 into Tuesday against the US Dollar (USD) extending the rally from the low of 0.6720. Chinese headlines around the trade negotiations between Chinese and US officials continue to buoy market sentiment with Chinese Vice-Premier Liu recently saying they had made “concrete progress” towards a deal. Liu said they would work on the basis of “equality and mutual respect” to address each other’s core concerns. The AUDUSD sits just off the five week high at 0.6865 and looks to retest resistance around 0.6900 if positive risk conditions continue. Looking forward it’s a very thin calendar this week for the pair with just m/m US Core Durable Goods Friday. Price shouldn’t more far from current levels this week with the focus on next week’s massive list of data prints.
Current Level: 0.6872
Last Weeks Range: 0.6724-0.6880
After the Australian Dollar reached fresh lows of 0.6725 midweek against the US Dollar it has consolidated back above the weekly open around 0.6850, a rise of over 1 cent. Better than predicted Aussie jobs numbers, positive risk sentiment based on the prospects of a Brexit deal being done and poor US Retail Sales data have all contributed in the AUD rally. The Australian Unemployment rate has fallen to 5.2% from 5.3% the first drop in seven months after peaking at 4.9%. Approx 154,000 new jobs were added to the economy in September spurred on mostly by full time employment. This will keep the RBA happy for a while. Looking toward next week we only have US Core Durable Goods to focus on. We suggest the AUD/USD could drop down towards 0.6800 as long position profit is taken before extending another leg higher towards 0.6870.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6828
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6724- 0.6831
The Australian Dollar come off its weekly high of 0.6810 on the open dropping to 0.6750 against the preferred US Dollar (USD). Risk sentiment was back spooking markets as the earlier excitement with a potential partially negotiated trade deal between China and the US faded on a lack of actual clear substance. Tuesday’s price was higher back around 0.6775 mark with RBA Minutes holding attention this afternoon. Although we have a reasonably busy data week in the pair headlines around the US trade discussions will dominate direction. A bunch of Fed members speak this week amid US Retail Sales and later in the week Australian Retail Sales. Downside support is seen around 0.6750
Current Level: 0.6769
Last Weeks Range: 0.6711-0.610
The Australian Dollar (AUD) shifted higher against the US Dollar (USD) overnight as the increase in risk sentiment stemming from more positive news on the Sino/US trade talks. This saw the AUD trade up from a weekly low of 0.6707 to a two-week high of 0.6775, now sitting at the 0.6760 level the AUD looks poised to trade back up to the 0.6780/90 level ahead of Australian data due next week. On Tuesday the RBA October meeting minutes will be released and Thursday will bring September labour figures. Longer term we expect selling pressure to come back on the AUD as the RBA looks to cut rates in November and any further bad US/Sino trade news will see a return of risk aversion. Risk sellers of AUD should take any rally as opportunities to attain better levels
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6764
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6709- 0.6773
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its decline against the US Dollar (USD) earlier in the week to 0.6670 breaking fresh territory to the downside before reversing losses trading back to 0.6750 into Friday. The RBA cut their overnight cash rate on Tuesday from 1.0% to 0.75% in efforts to boost economic growth with Lowe saying he needed full employment and targeted inflation. The Aussie remains fundamentally bearish with lingering global trade tensions having continued negative impact on China / Australia dependant imports. Wednesdays turn around in price off the low was due to US Manufacturing figures printing lower than expectations with the slowdown in manufacturing intensifying. Looking ahead we have US Non-Farm Payroll tomorrow morning which should give us a normal surge of volatility around the release, expect numbers to be in line with forecasts of 145,000 with employment remaining at 3.7%. While the AUD has enjoyed some relief over the past couple of days it could be a good time for buyers of USD to consider these levels before possible bearish momentum continues.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6748
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6670- 0.6775
It should be a massive week ahead for the Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) cross with a slew of data to publish. The Aussie looks to have formed a base around 0.6750 since Wednesday last week, a daily close below here could see a fall back to the four week low of 0.6685 and the September low. Today’s RBA rate announcement and policy statement remains in focus with 80% of market participants pricing in a cut of 25 points to 0.75%. The Australian Dollar is expected to come under pressure from the rate cut but the big picture focus will likely be if the RBA signal further reduction in the cash rate. It’s hard to see any decent spikes taking place this week for the AUD but if Lowe is hawkish in his statement delivery we could see some topside action. Later in the week is the all important US Non-Farm Payroll figures with another good result predicted.
Current Level: 0.6755
Last Weeks Range: 0.6739-0.6805
The Australian Dollar (AUD) started the week well spiking to 0.6800 but was soon under pressure from the US Dollar (USD) dropping to 0.6740 Friday amid general greenback strength and risk averse conditions. Governor Lowe spoke midweek saying the economy in Australia was at a turning point. Post remarks, most of the Australian Banks revised their rate forecasts back to a cut next week instead of November. Analysts in mid-September had predictions of a rate cut next week at 18% but this is now 80%. The Aussie Dollar struggled to maintain topside momentum into the second half of the week as it looks to retest 0.6700, a major level, in the coming days. With a slew of economic data on the docket next week including US Non-Farm Payroll figures we should get plenty of movement- bias to the downside.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6754
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6738- 0.6805
A “risk off” week saw the Australian Dollar (AUD) drop to 0.6760 over the weekly close against the US Dollar (USD) where it has consolidated into Tuesday. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish cut and poor Aussie employment data drove the Aussie lower. Sentiment improved on Monday over news the Chinese Ministry of Commerce downplayed the cancellation of US farm visits saying last week’s trade discussions were indeed productive despite other media saying otherwise. It could just be the AUD looks cheap at these levels, but we will get more clues later today when Governor Lowe speaks. He is under mounting pressure to cut rates sooner rather than later as markets predict but his comments could be key leading into next week’s RBA cash rate announcement. Certainly a break below 0.675 could spell further downside bias.
Current Level: 0.6774
Last Weeks Range: 0.6761-0.6869
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has given back all of last week’s gains against the US Dollar falling back to 0.6780 Friday. This is 1 cent lower from the opening price as markets buy the safer greenback. The Federal Reserve lowered its overnight cash rate to 2.0% from 2.25% with Powell’s Fed members split over easing policy further putting a question mark over further cuts this year. Powell reiterated he would need to see a much weaker US economy via data and an intensification to the US/China trade war to need to deliver further cuts. Aussie employment numbers shook the Aussie lower yesterday when the unemployment rose to 5.3% from 5.2%. Heavy support at 0.6700 is the next level of concern for the AUD with a lack of Aussie data next week.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6783
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6778- 0.6883
The Australian Dollar (AUD) held its ground last week against the US Dollar (USD) reaching a fresh high of 0.6895 before easing lower to 0.6860 on the Monday open. Tensions in the Middle East have affected relations with the US and Iran after a Saudi oil field was drone bombed sent market mood south with downside market risks building again. Economic focus this week lies with the Federal Funds cash rate and following statement with expectations a cut of 25 points to 2.0% and talk of possibly two further cuts this year. 0.6850 offers a decent base in the cross with price hovering around 0.6860 currently, we think risk factors will dominate over the rest of the week. Buyers of AUD/USD should consider these levels and not wait for a potential jump towards 0.7000.
Current Level: 0.6848
Last Weeks Range: 0.6845-0.6895
After the Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) reached a fresh six-week high of 0.6895 Thursday before the price fell back to 0.6860 just above the weekly open of 0.6850 as risk sentiment eases with US data supported the greenback. China dropped tariffs on 16 US products in an unprecedented act to win over the US President, Trump retaliated with an act of goodwill announcing he would defer tariffs on 250B of Chinese products until October 15th. US Core CPI published at 0.3% from the 0.2% markets were predicting sending the US Dollar higher across the board along with equity markets. US Retail Sales prints later tonight and is expected to come in lower at 0.2% from July’s 0.7%. Next week’s Fed cash rate and monetary policy statement will be the main focus in a busy few days of economic data. Price has bounced off 0.6880 a number of times over recent weeks suggesting this area has formed a solid base of support. Next week’s Fed will give us further long term momentum signals, certainly buyers of USD should consider above 0.6850
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6868
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6838- 0.6894
While risk currencies enjoy buyer interest the Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to look well in control against the US Dollar trading to 0.6860 Tuesday. For six days straight we have seen higher prices in the cross stemming from the 3 September low of 0.6685. US Non-farm payroll disappointed with figures showing a lower number of people were added to the US workforce in August pulling investors out of the greenback. Unemployment remained at 3.7%. This week’s monthly US CPI and Retail Sales remain in focus as the only price moving data to come. Today’s NAB Business confidence shouldn’t shift price far from current levels. We expect AUD long positions to square out, this may shift the cross marginally lower before upside momentum resumes.
Current Level: 0.6858
Last Weeks Range: 0.6688-0.6875
The Australian Dollar (AUD) registered a fresh four week high against the US Dollar (USD) this week reaching a high of 0.6829 Friday. Risk sentiment has improved over the week with the situation in Hong Kong with the Anti- Extradition bill being withdrawn and Brexit also improving. The RBA left rates unchanged Tuesday at 1.0% with Lowe saying the outlook for the global economy remains reasonable and will ease policy on an “as needed” basis. Inflation will remain just under the 2% target through to 2020. US ADP Non-Farm employment posted a nice gain of 195,000 up on the expected 148,000 and may signify tonight’s Nonfarm payroll release also prints up on expectations. If it does, we could see the Aussie go lower retesting 0.6780 but from the Fed’s point of view, they may see positive jobs growth as an argument to not cut on the September 19th review.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6809
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6687- 0.6829
This week’s calendar for the US Dollar (USD) and the Australian Dollar (AUD) is jam- packed with many price momentum volatility shifts on the cards. Currently we see AUDUSD hover around the 0.6710 area awaiting the RBA announcement later today with expectations that the RBA will keep rates on hold until November at 1.0%. US ADP and Non-Farm Payroll figures are the other main attractions later in the week and have the capacity to swing prices. Long term, multiyear support at 0.6675 is close, data will need to strongly support the Aussie economy if we are to avoid a break below here.
Current Level: 0.6708
Last Weeks Range: 0.6706-0.6780
The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovered from 0.6690 late Monday to trade back at 0.6790 against the US Dollar (USD) Tuesday after risk markets improved as a result of communication that China has recently made with the US on trade matters dialling down tensions. Assessing the longer term trend of the cross the Aussie has traded lower for six weeks straight into Friday to 0.6720. Australian Construction figures followed by Private Capital Expenditure results deteriorated this week, construction worsening with a contraction over the second quarter falling by 3.8%. Building Approvals release today and may reflect further building activity declines. Meanwhile US consumer confidence miraculously released stable at 131.1 for August following on from July’s 131.8 highlighting a reasonably upbeat mood in the USA. Next week’s NFP- Non-Farm Payroll will be the focus along with the RBA cash rate announcement which is widely expected to remain unchanged at 1.0
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6710
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6689- 0.6787
Despite all that’s been going on in currencies the Australian Dollar (AUD) has had a quiet week drifting around the 0.6740 mark against the US Dollar into Friday. 0.6800 still looks to be showing reasonable resistance with downside bias still favoured. After recently delaying trade tariffs President Trump has decided to increase them in a show of defiance after China confirmed they were adding a 5% tariff to 75B worth of US made products, escalating tensions to another level. Since then we have seen Trump suggest China has made contact with him saying they would like to restart talks. This saw tensions dialled down somewhat into Tuesday and price made a comeback to 0.6780 from Monday’s brief slide to 0.6690. It will be a week of risk related flow in the pair leading into Thursday’s Aussie Building Approvals and US second quarter GDP.
Current Level: 0.6722
Last Weeks Range: 0.6690-0.6799
Having lost the 0.6800 handle the AUD/USD continues to look soft and is currently around the 0.6760 mark with downside bias favoured. Poor local data for PMI services and manufacturing have side-lined Australian dollar (AUD) buyers and the next support is at the key 0.6740 level. If that breaks it would expose 0.6700. Upside resistance is at 0.6790 then 0.6820. This weekend’s Jackson Hole central banker symposium also poses a significant risk event. Fed governors have used past symposiums to signal major changes in central bank policy. At this stage it seems unlikely Fed Chair Powell is going to cave to pressure from Trump and ease policy anywhere near as much as the president would like, but the US Fed is starting to stand out in a world where other central banks are taking a much more dovish stance.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6760
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6751 – 0.6799
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to fall in value against the US Dollar (USD) and sits just above long term support of 0.6700, holding 0.6750 Tuesday. Data in the US continues to impress with Building permits showing new residential construction rose in July at 1.34M compared to the forecast of 1.27M and comes in above the July 2018 1.316M. Attention now lies with today’s RBA minutes from the recent 5th August meeting. Pundits are not expecting any wild moves in price based on a similar rhetoric by Lowe suggesting they will wait and see what happens over the coming few months before changing policy. Forecasts suggest the RBA will cut again at the November meeting and possibly again later in the year. We may get further clues today.
Current Level: 0.6759
Last Weeks Range: 0.6736-0.6818
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades Friday slightly lower than the weekly open of 0.6780 at 0.6775 after a reasonably sideways week of movement. Risk markets extended declines earlier in the week to 0.6754 but with positive employment data publishing price rose sharply to 0.6800 for a brief period. Wage price inflation improved to 0.6% from 0.5% for the June quarter including an increase to the number of new people employed rising from a flat 500 in June to 41,000 in July after an expected 15,000 was predicted. The unemployment rate stayed at 5.2% since rising in March from 5.0% but overall Australian employment remains solid and in a healthy place. US CPI was firmer than expected increasing to 0.3% for the month of June and y/y clicking up to 2.2%. Expectations are that CPI will rise further to 2.6% over the coming months. The AUDUSD remains in situ with very little data on the docket next week except meeting minutes from both the Federal Reserve and the RBA
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6777
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6735- 0.6818
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has extended last week’s decline into Tuesday falling to 0.6750 against the US Dollar (USD). Brief support for the AUD was seen last week when the cross bounced off 0.6675 post the RBNZ announcement to 0.6820 but the market’s appetite for risk has taken hold once again with the escalation of the Trump/China trade dispute. We have a busy week of data on the docket this week with Australian Employment and US CPI and Retail Sales to grab most of the attention. This morning RBA’s Kent made comment that the RBA wasn’t targeting the unemployment rate as their policy guidance, but they are an inflation focused central bank. You could have fooled me as jobs data has and will continue to be extremely important for Australian economic growth. Data dependant, the Aussie could drift lower while markets stay “risk off” the main driver of price
Current Level: 0.6757
Last Weeks Range: 0.6677-0.6821
The Australian Dollar (AUD) struggled this week battling to stay above 0.6750 against the US Dollar (USD) dropping to 0.6675 Wednesday post the RBNZ rate cut announcement. Tuesday’s RBA announcement was a non event after they kept the benchmark cash rate at 1.0%. RBA comments were in line with other central banks when they said the global outlook remains questionable and inflation expectations low. Lowe struck an optimistic tone however on Friday after he addressed parliament saying he thinks the economy may have reached a “gentle turning point” The Aussie Dollar is firmer against the US Dollar heading into the Aussie afternoon session but is still very concerned with the impact the US/China trade war could have on the economy if not resolved soon. An easing bias still remains for the RBA with expectations of further cuts expected based on a “if needed” scenario but Lowe won’t be in any hurry. 0.6850 poses decent resistance for any pull back in the cross above this level with 0.6700 looking like a better bet if next week’s US data prints well and “risk” continues to spook markets.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6813
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6677- 0.6820
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to break downside support lines as it heads into the 0.67’s against the US Dollar (USD) Tuesday. Price held up over 0.6750 however as the Aussie received a lift from this morning’s NZ better than expected unemployment release. Overnight manufacturing in the US grew for the 114th consecutive month with a June reading of 53.7 representing continued growth. Risk sentiment in markets took a hit overnight with markets very risk averse again after Trump raised the bar on tariffs on Chinese products, introducing a new tariff of 10% on 300B worth of goods entering the USA starting 1 September. Trump also criticised China for manipulating the Chinese Yuan USD/CNY after this cross travelled up over 7.0 hitting record highs. This is clearly what China want as this could potentially offset most if not all of the 10% Trump has imposed. Today’s RBA interest rate decision is firmly in focus with no change expected from the current 1.0% after back to back cuts recently. Recent data shows the RBA have plenty of reason to hold for now but comments around further easing by Lowe will be key. With a risk off market we see further downside momentum remaining mid to long term.
Current Level: 0.6784
Last Weeks Range: 0.6749-0.6908
The Australian dollar (AUD) has been under relentless pressure from the United States dollar (USD) this week, in a continuation of the move that stated back on 19th July from around level 0.7070 level. A couple of key events have dealt much of the damage. The first of which was yesterday morning’s US Fed rate statement. While the Fed did cut interest rates by 0.25%, it was widely expected and the market seems to have been caught off guard by comments from a less than dovish Bullard. That sent the USD higher against most other currencies, including the AUD. Then compounding the move was the surprise announcement from President Trump overnight that more tariffs are coming onto Chinese imports. The AUD dramatically underperformed falling to a low of 0.6796 so far. Aside from a very brief flash crash at the start of this year, that’s the lowest level in a decade. We have Australian Retail Sales data to digest in the next hour or so, and it will take a solid result to turn the Aussie around. If the data disappoints then a test of support at 0.6765 looks likely.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6803
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6795- 0.6898
Price in the Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) broke below key bullish channel support of 0.6970 late last week spelling trouble for the AUD. Overall USD strength had investors selling the Aussie into this week with a bearish theme continuing into Tuesday with price dipping to 0.6897. Markets are now focused on Thursday’s Fed Cash Rate and Federal Reserve statement with Powell widely expected to cut rates to 2.25%. Trading volumes into Thursday will be light as markets hold positions ahead of the FOMC statement where we will find out just how dovish the Fed are. Anything neutral could send the Aussie to immediate support of 0.6860. Later volatility will ramp up again during the US Non-Farm Payroll release where markets are expecting an increase of 160,000 personal to be added to the US workforce.
Current Level: 0.6903
Last Weeks Range: 0.6895-0.7034
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has drifted further into the red against the US Dollar (USD) with Core Durable Goods Orders releasing much higher than predictions of 0.2% at 1.2%. Buyers increased orders for more USD and the Aussie is back at 0.6950 breaking back lower past psychological support of 0.7000 with ease. Focus now lies with next week’s Fed meeting and potential interest rate cuts. Its unsure as to how much a cut has been priced into the currency but we will certainly get a normal amount of volume buying in both directions whatever the announcement. It’s hard to know market sentiment around such releases but we think if a cut by just 25 points eventualities this could be seen as positive putting further pressure on the Aussie into their own RBA August 6 cash rate announcement.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6943
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6940- 0.7057
The Australian dollar (AUD) surged late last week to a high of 0.7081 against the United States dollar (USD), driven by dovish comments from the NY Fed President. A few hours later Fed officials scrambled to clarify he was only talking in “academic” terms and not specifically referencing near term policy decisions. This saw the USD recover some composure and AUDUSD has largely drifted lower since then. That being said, it’s hard to get too negative on the AUDUSD from here. There is decent support around 0.7000 and with the focus firmly on next week’s Fed meeting, and a potential interest rate cut, we suspect that level will contain any periods of near term weakness. Data from the US this week in the form of Core Durable Goods Orders and Advance GDP could make or break expectations for either a 25 or 50 point cut from the Fed, and as such we could see further USD volatility.
Current Level: 0.7032
Last Weeks Range: 0.6996-7081
The Australian dollar (AUD) continues to make gains against the United States dollar (USD), surging above resistance around 0.7045 in the past 24 hours to currently trade at 0.7075. Dovish talk from Fed officials have driven the latest move higher and there is little in the way of resistance until 0.7130. With yesterday’s Australian employment data showing a gain of 21k full time jobs, the market is now increasingly of the opinion the RBA will now pause the rate cutting cycle while they asses further incoming data. The 0.7045 level now becomes the first line of support for the AUD and I would expect that to contain any potential near term weakness. RBA Gov Lowe speaks next week, while from the US we have Durable Goods Orders and Advance GDP data.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7063
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6983 – 0.7081
It has been largely one-way traffic for this pair ever since last Wednesday nights dovish testimony from Fed Chair Powell. That helped to turn the Australian dollar around after briefly trading to a low 0.6911 just prior, and the gains against the United States dollar have been relentless ever since. Yesterday’s release of better than forecast Chinese activity data helped to boost the AUD further and the pair currently trades at 0.7038. It’s hard to know how much further it will go as there are no signs the pair is running out of steam just yet. However, the market is close to the best levels since early May and there is minor resistance close by, around 0.7045. Any move above there would be a bullish sign. Key to whether or not that resistance caps the AUD will likely be todays Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate meeting minutes, set for release in just over an hour. Initial downside support is seen coming in around 0.7000, so those two levels will be key to watch over the course of the next 24 hours.
Current Level: 0.7039
Last Weeks Range: 0.6911-0.7040
It’s been a week of two halves for the AUDUSD. The first half saw the AUD under pressure on the back of declining local consumer sentiment and business confidence, while the USD saw follow on buying after last Friday strong US employment report. But momentum swung around on Wednesday night in the wake of Fed Chair Powell’s dovish testimony which saw the USD come under significant selling pressure. The AUDUSD gains continued yesterday driving the pair to an overnight high of 0.6987. With both central banks now in easing mode we may well see the AUDUSD chop around within a similar sort of range as it has over the past 3 weeks or so. Resistance on the topside comes in around 0.7050 and that should provide a cap to any further near term strength, while on the downside there is support around 0.6900 and I would be surprised to see the pair trade significantly lower than that.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6973
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6910 – 0.6994
Friday nights US employment data saw a sharp reaction in the AUDUSD falling from around 0.7016 before the data to a low of 0.6958 post the release. We have seen the pair manage to stabilize above 0.6960 in the early stages of this week as we await to hear from US Fed Chair Powell who is scheduled to speak tonight and then again on Thursday. The market will be looking for any indications from Powell as to the probability / size of any potential upcoming easing. Locally we have Business Confidence and Consumer Sentiment to digest of the coming days. It’s hard for us to get too bearish on the Australian dollar (AUD) at the moment, and we expect to continue to see support emerge on any periods of potential weakness toward support at 0.6940.
Current Level: 0.6970
Last Weeks range: 0.6957-0.7047
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has outperformed the US Dollar (USD) this week, comfortably trading above key support, around 0.7000, at 0.7030 after a brief visit to 0.6955 Monday. The RBA cut their benchmark cash rate for the second straight month from 1.25% to 1.0%. The first time back to back cuts have happened in seven years as the RBA tries to front foot ongoing slowing growth. The sole policy of every central bank in the world is asset price inflation by providing cheap money to stimulate growth and inflation. Australian Building Approvals and Trade Balance both released ahead of expectations before a US Holiday (Independence Day) practically halted currency markets heading into Friday. Watch for overnight NFP – Non Farm Payroll to cause the usual volatility prior to the weekly close
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7023
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6955- 0.7047
The Australian Dollar (AUD) reached 0.7035 very early Monday against the US Dollar before giving back most of last week’s rally against the US Dollar (USD). Markets breathed a sigh of relief after the weekend’s G20 meeting highlighted a ceasefire between Trump and China trade negotiations. President Trump holding off increasing the tariffs on Chinese Goods while they work through further trade details. Buy the rumour sell the fact, the Aussie clearly overvalued as investors bought the big dollar in support of a surprisingly happy G20 event. US Equities are still trading at crazy highs erasing May losses the Nasdaq gaining 7.3% in June. The equity rally is based on two factors – the promise of a China/US deal and optimism the Fed will announce a rate cut in July by at least 25 basis points. Currently price is hovering around 0.6965 with the RBA to announce their cash rate later today at 4.30pm NZT. Analysts are drawn between a cut and no cut until the August meeting. Converting AUD around current levels looks attractive to us.
Current Level: 0.6970
Last Weeks Range: 0.6943-0.7034
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has continued its run north over the week to a fresh three week high of 0.7006. Risk appetite has supported the single currency with medium and long term investors inclined to buy commodity currencies in favour of the greenback (USD). A dovish Fed policy outlook and soft Dollar policy has changed things up. We have seen Aussie demand stem from rallying commodity prices and poor Wednesday US Data, although Core Durable Goods numbers were good. Price action looks to be supporting a base forming around 0.6960, but it would take a clean break above resistance of 0.7020 to confirm this outlook. In the meantime, drops look to be well supported ahead of 0.6830. Tonight the G20 starts in Osaka and it should cause volatility over the weekend. We fully expect price to gap on Monday mornings open with Trump and Xi Jinping set to talk on Saturday. Buyers of AUD should look strongly at another around 0.7000
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7004
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6928- 0.7007
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to rally off last week’s low of 0.6830 against the US Dollar (USD), to 0.6960 Tuesday. Risk appetite looks stable enough this week and has given investors reason to get back into AUD. This week’s G20 meeting in Osaka, Japan is hailed to be far more exciting than a normal G20 catch up, with Trump and Xi Jinping set to meet to discuss the train trash that is intl trade tariffs. Lowe spoke Monday and continued to highlight global risks and rate cut forecasts with no change slightly more likely on the 2nd July. The next target for the Aussie dollar is 0.7000 resistance and the June high. If US data continues to print below market expectations, we may see the currency track higher. Risk sentiment will be the deciding factor with volatility around the G20 a given.
Current Level: 0.6962
Last Weeks Range: 0.6832-0.6972
The Australian Dollar (AUD) retraced higher off the long-term low of 0.6830 midweek against the US Dollar (USD) back over 0.6900 to post 0.6923 Friday. Central banks around the world are fairly in sink now after Lowe’s comments the RBA would drop their cash rate possibly in July with more to come. The Fed were not quite as dovish as we expected yesterday after they left the cash rate unchanged at 2.5% with a watch as see approach to further cuts depending on the outcome with Trump’s trade war and economic data. Thursday’s NY session saw a sharp sell of in the big dollar when the Philadelphia Manufacturing survey disappointed bolstering the Fed’s case to ease policy. While the Aussie is enjoying a decent spike higher, buyers of USD should consider converting AUD.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6925
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6831- 0.6934
The Australian Dollar (AUD) this week has fallen significantly below what we conceive as the safe support level of 0.6865 against the US Dollar (USD). This represents a level so low it’s nearly on par with the December 2015 price of 0.6825. Prior to this and we are off the end of my chart which ends June 2013. I’ve been told its March 2009. If the Federal Reserve don’t report an dovish monetary stance Thursday, we are looking at the possibility of the Aussie falling off a cliff to these levels I mention above. Today’s RBA Minutes from the 4th June statement will also be key. Geopolitical uncertainties continue to weigh on the Aussie Dollar as we head into the end of the Aussie Financial Year 30 June.
Current Level: 0.6856
Last Weeks Range: 0.6848-0.6965
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has continued to post losses declining further against the US Dollar (USD) into Friday Lunch to 0.6909. The US has been well supported this week, the Aussie giving back all of last week’s gains from its short stay at 0.7020. Australian unemployment unexpectedly rose to 5.2% from 5.1% with the change in workforce numbers increasing to 42,000 ahead of the predicted 16,000. This number was somewhat distorted as 39,000 fell under part time listings distorting the numbers positively. Markets focused on the rise to unemployment though which weakened the AUD. Technically price has dipped below the 100 day moving average this week thus we expect a retest of the mid May low of 0.6860 to come into play at some stage. The Federal Reserve publish their cash rate and monetary policy statement next week, expectations are that the Fed will leave it unchanged at 2.50% for at least another month.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6906
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6909- 0.7006
It was choppy week for the Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar pair after the RBA cut rates to 1.25% from 1.50%, but overall the Aussie outperformed making small gains on the US Dollar (USD) back to 0.7000 a five week high. Risk markets also assisted as well as a soft US Dollar after poor Non-Farm Payroll figures released weaker than expected. (75,000 instead of 177,000). Trading Tuesday around 0.6950 we are anticipating NAB Business confidence later today to offer further clues if we can expect further upside. Aussie employment Thursday and US Retail Sales holds market attention later in the week. Support at 0.6940 may hold if not we expect a retest of 0.6900.
Current Level: 0.6963
Last Weeks Range: 0.6953-0.7022
A tough week for the Australian dollar as it has been battered by an RBA rate cut , poor GDP data leading to forecasts of another cut in rates in August and today a lower than expected April trade surplus (AUD4.87 bio vs AUD5.bio forecast)…The AUD peaked at 0.7007 yesterday but as usual, failed to hold over the 0.7000 level and is now back around the 0.6960 level. With downgrades to growth forecasts , the Central bank turning dovish and potential for two more rate cuts by year end , the AUD continues to battle headwinds , a weaker US Non-farm payroll figure tomorrow may provide some respite but we look for trading to shift into the 0.6800/0.6950 range over the coming weeks.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6965
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6925- 0.7007
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has had a relatively quiet week against the United State Dollar (USD), chopping around in a tight range between 0.6904 and 0.6939. While the longer-term trend for the AUDUSD has been to the downside, there are good reasons to question just how much further the pair may fall. The negatives are well known, a slowing housing market weighing on the broader economy, and potential upcoming interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). But countering these are a couple of key facts that need considering. Firstly, the market has now largely priced in couple of interest rate cuts from the RBA, so unless the expectation moves to 3 or 4 upcoming cuts, which is a bit of a leap at this stage, then we’ve already had the bulk of the AUD’s reaction to any potential RBA cut. Secondly, iron ore, which is Australia’s largest export commodity, has been making significant gains recently with the price per ton close to USD100.00. There is a good long-term correlation between the iron ore price and the AUD. That correlation has broken down recently with the current bout of AUD weakness, but the two prices are likely to converge again at some state. All this doesn’t mean the AUDUSD is set to fly higher. We think there is a good chance at some stage the pair tests key support around 0.6800. What these facts do suggest is that if the pair does get down to that support zone around 0.6800, it’s likely a very good chance to convert USD to AUD. We would be surprised to see the pair make any significant break below 0.6800 unless some fundamental change eventuates. We like the prospect of buying AUD on any periods of weakness toward 0.6800.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6920
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6903- 0.6938
A dovish slant by RBA governor Lowe last week has left the Australian Dollar (AUD) broadly on the back foot against the (USD) US Dollar. Through Thursday the AUD declined to 0.6864 a multi-year low. Lowe has signalled a rate cut at the next meeting possibly 0.25% to 1.25%. The big question is how many cuts will we see in 2019? Westpac Bank increased their forecast from two cuts to three in June, August and now November so we see further struggles of AUD on the horizon. If Lowe signals three cuts to come this year, we would see further broad based AUD selling eventuate with only two cuts markets currently priced in to the currency curve. The AUD improved slightly Friday to close at 0.6930. This week’s key data is US prelim GDP q/q expected to come in at 3.5% a little down on the previous quarter of 3.5%. We see support holding this week at the prior low of 0.6865, clients looking to convert AUD to USD should consider at current levels above 0.6880 before further downside resumes.
Current Level: 0.6920
Last Weeks Range: 0.6864-0.6933
The Australian dollar (AUD) has had choppy week vs the United States dollar (USD), influenced initially by the election outcome and then by comments from RBA Governor Lowe. Monday morning saw the AUD react positively to the surprising election outcome, rallying to the weeks high of 0.6934. But the gains could not be sustained in the wake of comments from the RBA Governor on Tuesday who signalled an interest rate cut at their next meeting, in a couple of weeks, is a very real possibility. To be fair, Governor Lowe was as clear as he could ever be and the market heard him loud and clear. Cuts are coming, the only question is how many cuts we will get over the course of this year. Westpac have now increased their rate cut expectations to 3 between now and the end of the year, one in June, August and November. It’s hard to argue with that outlook, and in this environment the AUD will continue to broadly struggle. Key support comes in around 0.6800 and we may well see a test of that over the coming couple of weeks. Tempering downside expectations however, is the fact that some commodity prices, in particular iron ore and gold, have held up extremely well over recent weeks and that may only serve to reinforce the key 0.6800 support area, should the AUD get down there. Clients looking to convert USD to AUD should look to deal on any move toward that level.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6883
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6864- 0.6933
Choppy trading in the AUD after the surprise election result…sold off down to 0.6863 on this cross, then bounced back above 0.6900 to 06932 in late trading yesterday. Now at 0.6907 we expect trading to consolidate around current levels ahead of the RBA minutes this afternoon which are expected to signal easier policy and a later key speech by Governor Lowe. In a speech entitled ‘The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy’, look for Lowe to emphasise the Bank’s easing bias and pave the way for a cut in June…..Sellers of AUD should look to maximise current levels as any heightened rate cut expectations will see the AUD trade lower…Immediate support is at 0.6865 with resistance at 0.6930.
Current Level: 0.6918
Last Weeks Range: 0.6863-0.7006
The Australian dollar (AUD) has struggled this week, driven lower by China trade concerns, a depreciating Chinese yuan, and disappointing local unemployment data. The risks of an interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) next month have also increased and it’s hard to see the AUD staging any significant recovery in the very near term. This weekend’s election looks to be a close call and it could make for an interesting market open on Monday morning. The next key support level for the AUDUSD exchange rate comes in around 0.6800. At this stage the market looks like the market wants to test that. Clients looking to convert USD to AUD should view any move down to that support area as a good opportunity to deal.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6891
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6886 – 0.7018
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to trade in its bearish cycle from the mid-April high of 0.7205 against the US Dollar (USD) down to 0.6955 Tuesday. Five weeks of straight declines has landed the Aussie firmly below the physiological 0.7000 level which now acts as resistance for the cross. Friday’s y/y US CPI to the month of April rose to 2.0% from 1.9% showing the US economy in a firm league of its own as other countries inflation targets are devalued. Risk factors over the US and China trade was have affected any upside momentum in the Aussie with markets remaining risk averse for the better part of a week. Things on this front worsened overnight with Trump suggesting he is offering China one month for agree a deal or face increased tariffs on an additional 300-325M worth of Chinese exports to the US. US Retail Sale prints Thursday along with Aussie key jobs data – then over the weekend is the Australian Election. Investors should look at securing USD on spikes above high 0.69’s with the Aussie downside bias expected over the coming days.
Current Level: 0.6954
Last Weeks Range: 0.6939-0.7048
The Australian Dollar climbed to 0.7045 versus the US Dollar off the back of no change from the 1.50% cash rate announced by the RBA Wednesday. Markets had clearly factored in a cut so it was not a surprise to see the Aussie rally. Governor Lowe remained on the fence with a neutral statement confirming employment growth is the light at the end of the tunnel for the RBA with an improvement in the 1.3% inflation forecast needed. At the moment the RBA’s 2-3% inflation target is falling well short. US and China trade tensions have increased as Trump has threatened tougher tariffs if the Chinese don’t cooperate. Talks were held this morning with nothing really coming from it- they will meet again tomorrow. We still see a downside bias in the cross with price to retest the weekly low of 0.6960 again.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7008
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6962- 0.7049
The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains under heavy pressure ahead of this afternoon’s 4.30 NZT RBA rate meeting. Speculators are predicting a 45/55 probability a cut will be made to the 1.75% to 1.50% based on overall deteriorating economic outlook. Trade tariff worries between Trump advisors and Chinese officials were back on front page news yesterday after Trump has threatened to increase the 10% tariff on Chinese products to 25% starting this Friday. Wednesday’s trade meeting looked to have been cancelled by the Chinese but over the last few hours it seems a Chinese delegation will indeed travel to the USA for talks. Risk markets have been hit with equities trading lower and sentiment for commodity currencies down. The Aussie has traded to 0.6962 late Monday but has recovered to 0.6990. Volatility will be massive later today starting with Aussie Retail Sales at 1.30 NZT. Later in the week US m/m CPI publishes. We see the cross remaining under 0.7000 with possible downside bias to a 0.6800 bottom. Buying USD at current levels over 0.6960 should not be sneezed at.
Current Level: 0.6993
Last Weeks Range: 0.6963-0.7068
The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded higher to 0.7065 early in the week against the US Dollar (USD) but was met with stiff greenback support after US data surprised to the upside and Chinese date disappointed affecting risk sentiment. ADP data followed by the Federal Reserve rate announcement Thursday morning pushed investors out of Aussie back into the Dollar when Powell suggested the next rate announcement on June 2nd would likely remain unchanged at 2.5% pouring water on chances for a cut. Price continued to drift lower into Friday with the much anticipated (NFP) non-Farm Payroll to release tomorrow morning. At a guess we see the Aussie drifting lower (now below massive support at 0.7000 at 0.6997 as I write) if NFP and next Tuesday’s RBA confirm further downside. Stay tuned as we should see plenty of swings and movement over the next few days.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6996
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6991- 0.7068
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has done a good job of holding up in 2019 against the US Dollar (USD) even though last week it dipped below crucial support of 0.7000 to 0.6985 – but only for around 3 hours before bouncing higher. This cements yet another solid support base for the physiological 0.7000 level going forward – breaking below this level just became harder. With a Fed adjustment back to an accommodative angle and positive recent US/China trade discussions these have served the commodity hinged currency well. Weak US Core PCE Index disappointed Monday coming in at 0.1% instead of the expected 0.2% which included information for February and March because of the US Govt shutdown. The Aussie pushed higher off the open to 0.7055. This week’s major releases are Fed Funds Rate and federal Reserve statement- no change from the 2.50% is expected. Later in the week (NFP) Non-Farm payroll is expected to show another positive month of April for employment. We are picking a retracement to last week’s open of 0.7150 if data allows.
Current Level: 0.7042
Last Weeks Range: 0.6988-0.7139
The Australian dollar (AUD) has lost ground to the United States dollar (USD) over the past week. Those losses have accelerated in recent days on the back of broad based USD strength. Overnight the pair traded down below 0.7100 making a low of 0.7081. Attention now turns to today’s Australian inflation data and the risk that a soft result could pave the way for a test of the key psychological level of 0.7000. The market is expecting a result of 0.4%, which would be unchanged from prior. Any print below 0.4% will see the Australian dollar under further pressure. Over the coming days from the US we also have Durable Goods Order and Advance GDP to digest. There are signs that the US economy may well have improved over the past month or so and there is the potential for a stronger than forecast GDP result, which would boost the USD further.
Current Level: 0.7096
Last Weeks Range: 0.7081-0.7204
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has continued its six-week bullish theme against the US Dollar (USD) trading around the 0.7180 area Wednesday. Higher highs and higher lows occupy the chart over the last few weeks with the Aussie extending its grasp on the greenback. RBA minutes from the meeting two weeks back highlighted the same neutral to slightly dovish approach to policy. A wait a see view with low chances of raising rates was discussed with a large emphasis on the jobs market supporting the economy. Tomorrow’s Aussie jobs report will be super key with growth of around 15,000 people expected. Friday’s US Retail Sales will also add volatility to price before the week winds down for Good Friday holiday.
Current Level: 0.7160
Last Weeks Range: 0.7086-0.7192
The Australian Dollar (AUD) climbed to a new high of 0.7175 yesterday against the USD Dollar (USD) as a by-product of risk favorable market conditions. RBA assistant governor Debelle was optimistic of property recovering off its low and employment, the economic saviour, remaining strong through the next few quarters. Just when price looked like it would break the late Feb high of 0.7200 it reversed on upbeat US data back to 0.7120 on US Dollar strength. US m/m CPI came in at 0.4% over expectations of 0.3% and jobless claims figures dropped to the lowest level since 1969. The number of Americans filing for the unemployment benefit was a seasonally adjusted 196,000 and highlights for the Fed a needed discussion on expectations of cutting rates which may end up being delayed. Price now looks vulnerable to break lower through the weekly open of 0.7100, buyers of USD should consider current levels.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7129
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7087- 0.7174
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has largely been range bound over the past few days amid risk sentiment and decent Aussie Data closing the week at 0.7100. The US Dollar (USD) had bouts of support but closed the week lower. US Jobs numbers shifted price from 0.7125 to 0.7090 with unemployment remaining the same at 3.8% and employment numbers improving to 196,000 from the 172,000 as average earnings growth dropped to 3.2% y/y from 3.4% but rebounding from poor February numbers. This news will give the Fed scope and confidence to not cut rates in the near term. The Fed will remain patient now and wait and see what the economy does before making their next move. Thursday’s US CPI m/m and FOMC meeting should give us hints on direction.
Current Level: 0.7121
Last Weeks Range: 0.7053-0.7130
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continued its run off last week’s low off 0.7063 against the US Dollar pushing to 0.7135 Monday as risk markets improved. US Equities are all higher overnight with the Nasdaq up 1.33%. The Aussie Dollar has been the strongest performer over the last 5 days. This morning’s US Retail Sales wasn’t the best result printing at -0.2% after 0.3% was expected, confirming signs that the US economy is slowing. Today’s RBA cash rate announcement and statement holds the interest of investors with expectations of a turn to dovish from neutral and increased chances of rate cuts sooner than expected. With the Aussie holding 0.7100 this morning we don’t expect price to drop below the magical 0.7000 with markets already pricing in most of the forecast. Non- Farm Payroll releases at the end of the week.
Current Level: 0.7111
Last Weeks Range: 0.7065-0.7147
The Australian Dollar (AUD) drifted off its midweek high of 0.7150 against the US Dollar (USD) back to 0.7065 Friday. A fresh wave of risk off sentiment made its way back into markets Thursday after less optimism was felt in the ongoing US-China trade deal prospects. Upgraded central bank growth forecasts have been doing the rounds with the latest being the RBNZ to take onboard a dovish stance. Next week’s economic docket is hefty with the RBA statement and budget, both Aussie and US Retail Sales and ending with (NFP) Non-Farm Payroll. Solid support is still seen at 0.7000 but with a dovish statement from the RBA and weak data this could be retested.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7083
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7062- 0.7147
The Australian Dollar (AUD) ended the week on a negative note against the US Dollar (USD) after retreating to 0.7080 as risk sentiment deteriorated. The RBA chief economist says the job’s market has undoubtedly improved – “employment has been strong and someone must be hiring all those extra workers” based on the better than expected unemployment print from last Thursday. The RBA still seem transfixed on the job’s market to guide policy. With the Aussie back trading above 0.7100 this morning we look ahead to Wednesday’s US Building permits for direction. Friday’s US fourth quarter GDP will also give us more to go off. Look for drops to be well supported ahead of 0.7000.
Current Level: 0.7116
Last Weeks Range: 0.7057-0.7163
The Australian Dollar (AUD) spiked to a three week high of 0.7167 against the US Dollar (USD) Thursday after Australian jobs data pushed new interest into the Aussie. A small number of jobs (4,600) were added to the workforce, a little light on expectations, but it was the unemployment rate markets focused on coming in at 4.9% from 5.0%. As quick as we saw a new high however we have seen a drop back to 0.7100 style levels with markets turning risk averse and buyers entering back into the greenback. With the fed’s new less optimistic slant to growth this has rippled across markets early Friday, digesting Fed Powell’s remarks and where he really thinks the economy is headed have people worried – what is he holding back talking about? Perhaps we will see the true market fundamentals show through in the next year or two showing signs of a real issue. Certainly, next week’s quarterly US CPI figures may give us more clues to long term direction.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7108
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7056- 0.7168
Massive support at 0.7000 held last week in the Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) pair with price travelled back through 0.7100 Tuesday reaching a high of 0.7115. Risk sentiment has been better with the US-China trade war showing signs of easing. The next meeting is planned for April but it’s reported that the leaders could meet up in late March. If we see positive developments arise we can expect risk appetite to sour which is good news for the Aussie Dollar. Today’s Monetary policy minutes and jobs data could throw up some surprises with Canadian CPI and Retail Sales prints Saturday.
Current Level: 0.7098
Last Weeks Range: 0.7042-0.7115
We have seen decent dips in the Australian Dollar (AUD) this week against the US Dollar (USD) down to 0.7050 with recent Aussie confidence readings and gloomy Chinese industrial production weighing. But the Aussie has been well supported during these dips with overall US weakness in the greenback stemming from broad USD declines from last week’s NFP reading and dovish speak from Fed chair Powell. The Aussie has also been closely correlated with risk flow this week which has come mostly from Brexit and Trump saying the China-US trade deal was progressing but stopping short of saying when. The Aussie fell short of posting 0.7100 and has dropped back to 0.7060 midday Friday. Next week we have Australian Jobs data and the Federal Cash Rate which is widely expected to remain at 2.5%
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7063
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7026- 0.7098
The Australian Dollar (AUD) closed the week on a high at 0.7040 against the US Dollar (USD), reversing off the weekly low of 0.7002 after risk sentiment improved. Risk markets continued into Monday with US equities posting gains of over 1.0% as the cross got through to 0.7080 Tuesday. The hangover from last week’s abysmal Non-Farm Payroll figure also continues to pressure the greenback along with Powell making comment that the Fed would try to influence the US Dollar lower through trade policy. The 50% retracement of the low of 0.7002 and high of 0.7200 could influence price towards 0.7100 before turning lower.
Current Level: 0.7062
Last Weeks Range: 0.7003-0.7092
The Australian Dollar (AUD) had one of the poorest economic data weeks I can remember dropping the pair to 0.7004 overnight from its weekly open of 0.7100 against the US Dollar. Fed member Brainard spoke overnight saying it’s clear that potential US economic growth is slower than it was before. The ECB downgraded their 2019 and 2020 inflation and growth forecasts bringing back risk averse sentiment across the board. The damage had already been done on the Aussie with a dovish RBA, poor quarterly GDP and Retail Sales. It was only yesterday’s Trade Balance printing at 4.55B instead of 2.85B expected which kept the Aussie above 0.7000. Non-farm Payroll prints along with US Unemployment overnight which is expected to come in lower back to 3.9%. If wage growth is good we will almost see the pair go into the 0.69’s since early January this year. If we disregard the surge lower of 3 January we are back at early 2016 levels.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7012
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7004- 0.7103
The Australian Dollar (AUD) opened higher Monday to 0.7100 against the US Dollar (USD) after optimism surrounding recent talks between US officials and Chinese negotiators. News of trade progress boosted Oil prices and equity markets assisted risk associated currencies. It’s a busy week of data for both currencies on the calendar with RBA to announce their cash rate later today. The RBA will no doubt leave rates unchanged at the historical low of 1.50% but comments around the falling housing market could get attention after Building Approval figures have been poor over the last 4 months. Later in the week Non-farm Payroll prints along with US Unemployment which is expected to print lower back to 3.9%. Price movement this week should hold 0.7000 with decent support around 0.7060.
Current Level: 0.7088
Last Weeks Range: 0.7070-0.7198
Midweek risk deteriorated in the Australian Dollar, US Dollar (AUD/USD) pair after US trade negotiator Lighthizer said although trade talks have gone well in Washington, they were a long way off locking in a long term deal as they were unsure if China would meet US demands. The cross came off 0.7198 with the Aussie giving up early gains back to 0.7090 Friday. Overnight US GDP jumped by 1 Trillion in 2018 as Trumps dream of 3% plus came true based on tax cuts and huge federal spending which acted as stimulus to the American economy. This release was delayed a month based on the US Govt shutdown. Fed chairman speaks tomorrow morning. 2019 range of 0.7050- 0.7300 remains intact, even with economic uncertainty looming we think the Aussie should hold above physiological 0.7000 for now.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7093
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7089- 0.7198
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has bounced back strongly from a volatile week or poor data and bad news. The Australian Dollar (AUD) reached a low of 0.7070 Friday against the US Dollar (USD) but bounced back to close the week around 0.7130 with markets turning risk on after positive talks were held in Washington with Chinese and US officials on trade tariffs. Early Monday and through NY sessions the Aussie pushed higher to 0.7185 before easing back a tad Tuesday. We have a fair chunk of economic data to publish this week with US consumer confidence and fed chair Powell speaking. Price could be limited to the topside for the rest of the week with a dip back to 0.7130 support line expected.
Current Level: 0.7168
Last Weeks Range: 0.7070-0.7206
The Australian Dollar (AUD) briefly reached a high of 0.7206 against the US Dollar (USD) on surprisingly good jobs numbers with the unemployment rate staying at 5.0%. Soon after Westpac announced their RBA 2019 predictions of a drop to the cash rate in August and November with the unemployment rising to 5.5% – this bought the cross back to 0.7150. China have banned Australian coal imports for 2019. In an overnight statement China have said the ban only applies to Australian coal with Russia and other countries unaffected. This naturally is a huge blow for the economy as China is Australia’s largest export earner. Buyers of AUD should consider prices above 0.7000 as we think the massive phycological support here could be breached in the coming days/weeks.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7095
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7068- 0.7206
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continued last week’s bullish run from 0.7080 into Monday reaching 0.7160 as risk related currencies were favoured. Friday’s US Retail Sales printed poor giving cross pairs a chance to improve, the Aussie 0.65% up on the US Dollar on the day. Australian Wage price index Wednesday followed by employment data Thursday is firmly the weekly focus with five FED members to speak later in the week as well as the RBA- the cross could track anywhere. 0.7050 is acting as support, we would be surprised if price travels below here.
Current Level: 0.7123
Last Weeks Range: 0.7054-0.7160
The week’s movement in the Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar cross has been a sea of choppiness. Opening around 0.7100 it has been to a low of 0.7050 and a high of 0.7135 on a bunch of mixed data. The most volatile of the G10 bunch of currencies at the moment. The whipsaw Aussie has been sensitive to the global economic uncertainties in a trade war with no outcome in sight and a long road ahead. Signs of recovering iron ore prices and a tread lightly approach from the RBA should keep the Aussie in a seesaw motion for a while. US Retail Sales printed Friday morning at a much worse -1.2% from the 0.1% markets were expected taking off some risk trades in the pair and bringing back price to 0.7090. Aussie wage data and US Durable good prints next week. Price in the cross could be under the pivotal phycological 0.7000 area.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7090
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7053- 0.7135
The Australian Dollar (AUD) depreciated from 0.7250 last week to close just under 0.7100 levels. RBA comments pushed investors out of the Aussie Dollar over the more favourable US Dollar (USD). This week we have seen a continuation of the bearish decline to post a 4 January low of 0.7060. To where the Aussie tracks from here could be largely dependant on how trade talks end up in Beijing this week with US official Mnuchin and China currently discussing possible solutions. Early in the week US officials had said they were a long way off any agreeing on a long term solution. Equities have closed benign overnight, if we see further declines over the remainder of the week we could see the pair drop down below 0.7000. Monthly US CPI and Retail Sales to print.
Current Level: 0.7063
Last Week’s Range: 0.7058-0.7263
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has plunged this week against the US Dollar (USD) in the wake of less than impressive economic data and US strength. Coming from around 0.7250 at the weekly open Retail Sales printed poorly sending the Aussie immediately on the backfoot to 0.7200 prior to the RBA meeting. The RBA released their cash rate which stayed unchanged at 1.50% – we have seen no change now since July 5th 2016 after it was lowered from 1.75%. Markets saw the release and statement as less dovish than expected offering momentary relief for the Aussie as it traded back to 0.7260. While they believe unemployment will gradually fall over the next year, they acknowledged a downgrade to GDP growth over the next two years was likely siting global economic factors. Adding to the AUD concerns this week was a a speech Wednesday by governor Lowe which surprised investors when his comments were rather more pessimistic than his official monetary statement Tuesday, this sent the pair below 0.7100 to a low of 0.7085 where it currently sits.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7070
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7061- 0.7264